And now the low welcome to the low post podcast on Thursday evening April 6th the Sun is shining the NBA season is almost over We have only a couple semi meaningful games tonight most of the teams that are really playing for something are off tonight So I thought it'd be a good time to podcast. There's one exception Oklahoma City Utah is a massive massive game for the Thunder Who are tied with the whoa is us Dallas Mavericks who if the Thunder lose tonight in Utah on the Thunder are kind of you can See them running out of gas the Mavericks will control their own destiny for the number 10 seed all they have to do is When their last two games which are the Bulls who are going to sit most likely everyone or lots of people and then the Spurs So Oklahoma City is in a borderline must-win tonight last night the Battle of Los Angeles Street lights versus spotlights Blacktop versus red carpet whatever stupid metaphors the Clippers marketing team came up with four years ago was kind of a The Clippers mostly handled the Lakers pretty easily shoving the Lakers likely into the play and tournament and creating the possibility For some glorious last-minute seating shenanigans in the Western Conference a much smarter person than me is required to help me sort through all these scenarios And so we have that person Kevin Pelton. How are you? When are they getting here?
They're here from Portland where the Hoops Summit is taking place. How are you? Yes here with Ronnie James a number of NBA scouts a number of media members. So doing well, so Clippers beat the Lakers norm Powell big game bones Highland big game Kawhi Leonard played 43 minutes including the last 30 minutes of the game continuously Here's where we stand seeds one and four Denver and Phoenix are locked in Memphis and At two is almost locked in which means Kings of three is almost locked in five to nine Clippers 42 and 38 they are fifth by virtue of the division record tiebreaker over the Warriors who are also 42 and 38 The Lakers last night are now 41 and 39 after that loss last night and the pelicans in a crazy comeback and then almost fall from ahead disaster against Memphis which didn't seem like that big of a game for the wider playoff Landscape but had the pelicans lost that game the shenanigans for Phoenix avoidance Potential Phoenix avoidance could have started this week in game 81 and now may have to wait until game 82 depending on the results of other Games and so here's where we are the Lakers are very likely now going to have to go through the play and tournament They were on a back-to-back.
They were tired coming off an overtime marathon against Utah in Utah the night before What will your takeaways from that game Kp and just sort of you know catch me up? I haven't talked to you about either the LA teams both of which ended the season with pretty lofty ambitions and both of which You're hovering around 500. What do we think of those teams as we near the end here? I don't think what I think of those teams really changed much last night for the reasons You just mentioned I looked at this yesterday going into the game If you looked at the record in the past decade of teams on the back-to-back that did not play over time the night before they've won 44% The time seems that like the Lakers have played one overtime period have won 40% of the time and it drops off from there And that's of course, you know talking about kind of all sorts of teams at all points of the season not specifically a Lakers team where Anthony Davis has not played a back-to-back I don't know when the last one he was he played was LeBron James obviously still coming back from this injury that he's been dealing with Didn't look like himself in the first half made a score 30 in the second half He like it seemed for a moment like he was going to wheel the Lakers back in the game We're able to do it because the bones highland led bench explosion that you mentioned I mean I think if you're the Clippers You have to feel good about the fact that they have managed to survive this period without Paul George You know, we will see how much of the postseason that extends to and unless they they disrupt their manipulation of the standings They should comfortably be out of the play in which you know to me is a pretty major dividing line I mean we've not yet seen a team come out of the play and make a run eventually I suppose over a long enough time period It's bound to happen, but I feel like you know if we go back to win the Lakers and Warriors to it If we're still talking about now, we're in the play and tournament two years ago I think that the chances those teams make you run was a bit overstated I still feel that way because it's just such a challenge to have to win you know at least one game to her die And then win three rounds on the road to potentially get to the finals So there is this debate in NBA media Twitter discourse Because of the fear of the sons who have not lost the game with Kevin Durant Although let's say that's just they have not exactly played a murderous row of teams with Kevin Durant But it's Kevin Durant and they look pretty good Would you rather have the fifth seed or the seventh seed in other words?
Where are you willing to risk shenanigans aiming at six and the Kings in the first round? Sorry Kings Awesome season you definitely have a chance to win multiple playoff rounds No one is saying that you don't what we are saying is faced with Inexperienced playoff team bottom six defense Kings versus Devin Booker and Kevin Durant We're taking the Kings if we can so the dilemma is aim at six and misfire and end in the play and tournament versus just accept your reality and be fifth And I just don't think that's a real debate for the Clippers or for anybody else I think the play-in is just viewed as such a dangerous crapshoot that Clippers especially having lost two play-in games last year and the fifth seed is In just the wild card that the Clippers experienced which was Paul George going into health and safety protocols and like look Maybe in a playoff series that seven games you could survive that in a one-and-done situation That's it your season's over and so I just I don't think that's it. That's the risk is just too high. No one views No one views the no one views that as a real debate I don't think within within the NBA and nor should they like here Carl Town's gonna eight threes and all of a sudden You're season just over and that's it and you're like what the hell do we just do we were that scared of Phoenix?
I mean you should be scared of Phoenix, but you know, it's it's not like they look incredible They're they're my pick to win the West as of right now But you know I just think you got to make the playoffs get the home games get give yourselves a real chance rather than risk the play And however KP do you want to go over some shenanigans scenarios and you have to just like please listen because my brain is broken Okay, my brain is broken going through this are you ready? Okay? The Pelicans and the Warriors Pelicans are 41 and 39 what is what a job by the Pelicans by the way the last time you and I podcasted together We talked about how the Pelicans offensive on into the basement without Zion Williamson and that's so weird because last year without Zion This team had was a legitimate threat to Phoenix in the first round and boy Oh boy have they turned things around and fought and fought and fought and Brandon Ingram Brandon Ingram had played like he's played the last 15 games For 65 games this year. I think he'd make an all-end be 18 Yeah, I mean sure that the solution was just Brandon Ingram make every shiny takes And the passing has been he's had like four double-digit assist games in the last 10 12 games Whatever Herb Jones has made enough threes Trey Murphy is he almost improved candidate to you?
Trey Murphy are you are you an anti-year-two guy or no? I'm not I'm one of the I generally don't believe in putting criteria into awards that are not explicitly in the awards So I don't think I don't think he would win it because I do think Larry Martin in particular just the the magnitude of going from the level that he was at of you know maybe Third or fourth NBA starter to all star is a more important leap than the one that the trainer see the thirdest made in his second season But he definitely deserves a lot of consideration Especially the way he just continues to expand his game over the course of the season Yes, I talked about his off the dribble stuff catch and go some floaters all that stuff last episode. He's been fantastic Alright, so Norlin's plays Friday. They play the Knicks who are pretty much locked in don't how much to play for let's say they lose Let's just say they lose for all this to come into play the pelicans need to lose on Friday They're 41 and 40 they fall two games in the last column behind the Clippers the Warriors also play on Friday They play the Kings who are pretty much locked in two.
Let's say the Warriors win. They're 43 and 38 The Clippers are off on Friday. They don't play till Saturday They get to watch these two games and decide what to do with life And they play the Blazers who God bless you if you can name the Blazers 10 man rotation right now You might be able to and that would I would you know Scott It's the Skyler maze show right now for the tanky blazers who have to deal with the embarrassment of doing this for the second year in a row So okay, that would be pelicans 41 and 40 warriors 43 and 38 If you're the Clippers you go out and beat Portland you're 43 and 38 You go into the last game of the season two games up on the pelicans You have the tiebreaker with the Lakers so it doesn't really matter what the Lakers do in this scenario You don't have to tiebreaker with Minnesota, so they're a little bit of wild car Let's put them over to the side you go into the last Audience 40 losses sorry 40 loss they can be off to the side bye-bye They go into the last day of the season with the two game cushion on the teams for whom they don't have the tiebreaker and tied 43 and 38 With the Warriors it raises the possibility That they may try to tank their last game in an effort to drop below the Warriors into the six seat however The Clippers last game is against none other than the Phoenix Suns What if the Phoenix Suns decide actually Clippers we'd like to play you we're gonna sit everybody and we're gonna have a good old-fashioned Tank off meanwhile the Warriors knowing that they Lose the tiebreaker against the Clippers I believe they play at the same time on Sunday in the last game of the season They play the Blazers knowing that if they lose they can control their own destiny to some degree and land in the six You know matter what the Clippers do I'm just I'm now rooting for the Knicks on Friday against the pelicans is all of this hinges on the pelicans falling out of this Derby by losing to the Knicks we can have two all-time horrible slash awesome tank offs on the last day of the season I mean I gotta say like when you think of game memorable games in the last day of the season obviously the Tim Wolf's not gets game that was a defective play in before the play exists it is high up on that list I was I said some players game that night So I didn't actually see that one But the most memorable game in the last three years on the last day of the season was that Clippers thunder game where both teams were trying to lose The Thunder from a draft position perspective the Clippers to try to lock in the playoff match ups that they desire and stay out of the Lakers potential bracket from the Playin or from the first round at least and I guess you know they got to four or five so yeah That would that will always remember Daniel to her is post-ups from that game and actually poke a chef's key playing point guard for the thunder like I guess if you're rooting for the most memorable most meaningful Sunday you have to hope that the next win on Friday now Let's all let's let's add layers to this The Kings are three and one against the Clippers going back to my point of like be careful Just just give the Kings their proper respect their fast the Clippers speed annoys the Clippers they're faster relentless They scored 176 the Clippers blew that game but that with the Kings are fine comfortable ish Blame the Clippers There's also the potential by the way I checked with the NBA on this a three-way tie between the Pelicans warriors and Clippers goes in order pelicans win it then warriors then Clippers For some reason that I don't care to understand that's how the three-way tie goes This could this could be fun It's probably gonna be rendered all mood because the pelicans will go all out and beat the Knicks and then we'll just come down to game 82 And there will be no room for shenanigans because no one wants to take the risk of being the seventh seed and by the way Memphis No one's really paid all the Memphis has kind of fallen out of the discourse a little bit because Marantz back The suspension is over there was a big new Washington post story today that is incredibly Troubling about Marantz non-Instagram live incidents the one at the mall and the volleyball game and the pickup game both being worse then has been previously reported and Implying very strongly that the police did not aggressively investigate them as they would have had they involved a non-celebrity Alleged aggressor very troubling and the credits of Washington Post They got the victims the alleged victims in those incidents to talk to them on the record Which is a rare thing but Memphis has been playing really really well I thought they would feel the Stephen Adams Brandon Clark injuries a little bit more acutely But big-body Roddy just comes in and does stuff and Kenneth Lofton Jr. Who's just a delight in every possible way comes in and does stuff and Doesn't dance playing great triple J's playing great and they just keep winning like they're no slouching number two either They're like as good as they were last year.
I mean the tops now in the Western Conference in Point differential I don't know that I read a lot of that given the way that Denver has you know approached this last stretch It is not necessarily how to turn to play for recently But yeah, I even though I still think the the two seven three six side of the bracket is the one you'd rather be on compared to the One one eight four five that includes both Denver and Phoenix I you know Memphis specifically is not as attractive a first-round opponent Especially when you factor in that you have to win a play in game just to lock that in and avoid being in the eight seed and facing Denver in the first round And obviously as we mentioned 10 is up for grabs in the West between the Thunder and the Mavericks outline that before the plot twist There is the nicks are rooting very hard for the Mavericks to get into the playoffs And so they get the Mavericks top 10 protected pick instead of having it roll over and giving the Mavericks a chance to sort of Revamp their team into a better team one hell of a media availability by Mark Cuban yesterday Just an all-timer showing text messages between him and his GM describing the thought process relayed to them by Aaron Mince one of Jalen Brunson's agents at CIA during the Jalen Brunson kerfuffle Implying without really explaining why as far as I know that the Mavericks did not have an opportunity to sign Jalen Brunson to the four-year $55 million extension He was eligible for various points didn't really get that and then blaming Rick Brunson and Jalen's parents for Jalen's defection to the nicks just an all-time epic media availability followed by today the NBA Officially declaring null and void the Mavericks protests of the Warriors lost a couple weeks ago Did you expect that process to be successful Kevin? I know you rigorously analyze this you went into the litigation you read the briefs they've white shoe law firms were involved Did you expect a different outcome is this I let me ask you like this is this a gross miscarriage of justice in your view? I don't think it is we have win probability. Maybe we need protest probability as well so that we can assess the Chasement I mean obviously when you look at the base rate of the fact that we haven't had a successful protest since 2006 2007 whatever you that was the odds are inherently pretty low that any of those are gonna succeed and The fact that in this case there didn't seem to be a clear rule that was misapplied like even the Mavericks argument boiled down to Well, you should have told us and that's like you know a principle rather than a rule that's a very different thing The refs definitely should have assessed the situation and said this is strange We don't really think it sounds strategy for one team to concede a basket to the other team by having no player nearby any other players Even if I never suggested five of it even the background of the day four on five Let's give it a shot cherry picker waiting never suggested that the refs definitely should have stopped the game Be like everyone understand what's going on here because I but they didn't and the protest was lost anyway And so the Mavericks are here having to root really hard for the Utah guys who have nothing to play for but Utah jazz Nothing to play for have been playing really damn hard and Colin sexins back and he's got like stuff to play for He wants to get back in his rhythm and oh Baji has has gotten tons of minutes tailhorn Tucker has turned into like magic Johnson or something in the last two weeks Like they're playing hard definitely I mean that was a thrilling game between them and the Lakers that took so much out of the Lakers going into last night's matchup with the Clippers Horton Tucker it seems to validate like my thought always was the reason it didn't work in LA was because he needs the ball And it's hands to be successful And that's just not gonna happen when you're playing with LeBron James and you know through two thirds of the season It was looking like well No, I have to take the L on that theory and then finally in this last stretch where he has effectively been playing a lot of point card It it has come around Yeah, I feel a little bit redeemed and I've been texting with some people close to them about this He was in my six most intriguing players column to two seasons ago And obviously there was nothing intriguing about what happened in Los Angeles between that column and the trade but he's got skill and craft Anyway, enough Utah Her Vatska's own Lucas Ammonich I know the town where Lucas Ammonich is from and I visited the town and Many people asked me how I thought Lucas Ammonich would do in the NBA and their assumption was he would be like amazing Because everyone roots so hard for the curl ads and I was like, I don't know we'll see how he does and so far not so good But yeah, you know still time Okay, that's the West playoff picture.
Do you I mean have you the last time I had you on I think I made you make a nerf gun to the head pick for like based on what we know today who's winning the West Well, here's what's changed since since then Durant's back Paul George is out And we don't know when he's going to come back if they even advance around we come back in the middle of the way Don't we don't know and Andrew Wiggins is back but missing the last two games of the regular season So he will not play a game until the postseason Thoughts with Andrew Wiggins family. It's a bad situation. It's been a tough situation Has your your answer then was Denver just based on number one seed home court if Every team has like some plurality chance of winning the West if it's that open just go with the top seed That's the by default is that still where your head is that I think we are in the same position because you said earlier That the Suns were you're picked to win the Western Conference And I think they are mine now as well And I think for the probably for the same reason that number one We just got clarity on Durant's return and his ability to get in a few games prior to the postseason So the Suns are not going in with three games together as a unit and then secondly the fact that it related to Durant coming back They have stabilized in the four seed are going to have home court advantage in a round and you know not have to face is difficult Path is they potentially could I mean, you know, we'll see it could still swing I don't like the match against the Warriors nearly as much for them as I like the match up against the Clippers even if both of those look like You know challenging first round foes for a team with home court advantage But you know right now I would lean very slightly towards Phoenix. Yeah, I agree with you My my my biggest concern I mean my biggest concern about picking any team in the West is that none of these teams have stood out really at all and Phoenix has not had an opportunity to really mark itself as a juggernaut with Durant But my other biggest concern is I don't I mean like whether if it's Clippers or Warriors and the chances are now very good It's going to be one of those two teams.
I those are gonna be tough match ups now The Clippers without Paul George are there deep they can play all sorts of different lineups They have no idea what to do with Robert Covington still who plays 27 minutes one game Then zero minutes the next game I don't know what the hell is going on there, but they're so good and the Warriors Look, I don't get the road thing at all. I just don't get it. I don't understand it I literally just other than the opponent three point shooting. I have no idea what's going on with them on the road I've said all year and I'm sticking by it the data suggests if they ever get whole and stay whole and by whole I mean the starting five that is kick butt now in not a big sample size because Wiggins has been out so long and the first three off the bench of Pool even Genzo coming up and then Peyton as well as there and they have to mix in a lot of guards I don't love I think that team can beat anybody.
I think that team can win the championship I'm just saying they will I'm not saying they will be Phoenix in the first round I think they're capable of it and I can tell you for sure now. This is pre-drant When it was Paul and Booker they felt confident we can switch our way to smothering their pick and roll attack The Warriors know better than anyone that Durant is a one-man anti switch device who will destroy almost any defense that series As a nonpartisan I kind of that's a big deandra 8 in series That would be a really interesting series for him to see can he exploit small ball lineups at all? Can you beat switches? Can he punish the Warriors for playing dream on at center and switching assignments and all that be if that would be a fun series It would also scare me as a sun span.
Yeah, I mean I think there are two elements of that that would be highly anticipated We thought this time last year we are going to get a Warriors son showdown in the Western Conference final You know, sorry, sorry Memphis, which had comical and court advantage looking ahead to their match up against Golden State But then you know Phoenix's collapse at the end of that series gets Dallas prevented it And then also seeing Kevin Durant go up against the Warriors and the playoffs after playing there after their classic match up in the 2016 conference finals would be tremendously fun So you know, I'm with you that I think that would be the most entertaining possible matchup I also in some ways having that in the first round. It's like that. That's not right That shouldn't be a first-round matchup. Hey, it happens play you play the first 82 for a reason The first two of us to avoid some yeah, two of us that was Clippers Spurs 15 2015 I think the Chris Paul buzzer beater almost buzzer beater to win game seven that game seven The first round games are just so many games and the stakes are not low But just by default not as high as they are in the later rounds that game seven is one of my favorite games of all time And that series is one of my favorite series of all time And I think it took a lot out of the Clippers because that was the year They blew the Houston series and blew game six specifically in the next round Yeah, I'm another supply that is I'm sure Durant Would lead the league and being annoyed by having to answer a question after question about the Warriors and his tenure with the Warriors and his Decision to go the Warriors and all that I think he would be very annoyed I will have to admit to I think I have some grizzlies warriors fatigue I don't think I'm ready.
I don't think I'm ready yet like if it happens in the later rounds That's fine I just I'm kind of tired of the chirping and the chattering and I have a little bit of fatigue on that one Yeah, I think we could see some other match-ups with the Grizzlies that would be pretty fun I mean grizzly's Lakers obviously has its own share of chirping in that case it's from the sidelines Hey sports fans the ESPN app has all of ESPN all in one place The ESPN app is your home to thousands of live events ESPN shows and originals across every ESPN network in service And now you can check if you already have ESPN unlimited as part of your TV package for no additional calls visit activate.espn.com To learn how to access your account or sign up then start streaming in the ESPN app It's all the ESPN all in one place sign up or activate now Today is Thursday. I believe six sixers Celtics was Tuesday or Monday. It doesn't matter. I think Tuesday Let me tell you how that that afternoon began for me, Mr.
Pelton because I want to talk about awards a little bit I was talking to a coach who shall not be named We were just shooting the breeze about playoff match-ups and how the season was going and how this person's team was feeling about itself and As one does I say I'm just curious who would you vote for MVP? And he said this is this is the app this is hours before and beat erupts And I mean erupts for 52 points on 20 of 25 shooting which is like not even a real thing to shoot 20 of 25 in an NBA And that's like a fake thing. Nobody does that And this coach said you know, I'm still really annoyed that he sat against you catch like if I he said if I were in your shoes I'm not saying that would be like a tiebreaker for me But it just really did not sit well with me didn't sit well You handed it to him you handed it to him when you played head-to-head in Philly and this is the coach talking So you know it just felt like well now I'm playing with house money I'm just or instead of instead of saying now I'm playing with house money. I'm just not gonna risk anything I'm gonna take a low-risk approach and not even play them this time around it didn't like that And I thought because I had I hadn't decide I have been undecided the whole year you and I did an MVP podcast pointing Games at the season and both picks up curry at that point is our MVP And I thought that's interesting.
I mean I respect this guy's opinion a lot This is what I do. I thought to lots of people It's interesting that I wouldn't think of this person as someone that that game would stick in his cross so to speak And expression I've no idea what that means and then hours later and beat has One of the games of the season just an absolutely majestic performance against the Celtics and majestic is a word I've used to describe him a lot because he's a goliath and the way he just lords over the game from the free throw line his Footwork his soft touch. It's just it's majestic and it was a nice book end to in November He had 59 points and seven blocks against Utah which at that point was kind of the performance of the season for him So he's got one of these crazy games early one of these crazy games late the odds of the MVP swung like dramatically based on this one game The nuggets meanwhile, I think I would classify them as having won two meaningful games And by meaningful I mean like against good teams and they played well Since March 3rd when they beat the grizzlies to give themselves a five game cushion in the Western Conference and one of those meaningful games Was against the Warriors without you'll get so yolkich has appeared in one like actual good win since March 3rd And that was against the Bucks in Denver with Milwaukee on the back to back I'm playing well and Milwaukee's played really well in back-to-back season in Denver crush them and yolkich was amazing You have a ballot have you made your decision yet the information is in this like we're waiting to Wire now that doesn't mean we've all looked at all the available information I'm still gonna talk to people look at more information But all these seeds are like Denver's locked in the walkies lock walked in with the honest fillies locked in none of them Anything left to play for the games are in the information's in now. It's a verdict time.
Do you have a verdict yet? I am still going with yolkich even though I fully expect him be to win at this point I mean that was kind of my takeaway from the last one tips BS pull on ESPN by our colleague Tim Bontense The fact that it was that indeed was still narrowly ahead of yolkich even if it was by its little margin Which is it was two points the fact that in the immediate aftermath of And be not playing that game in Denver It still wasn't enough to push yolkich ahead of him be suggested to me that you know kind of the direction It was gonna go the rest of the season was you know in in beats direction Both in this case because he's continued to play and it's played really well and also because just over time I think that factor of we'd rather give it to a player who's not one previously rather than a player that is one last two We serve as a tiebreaker. What's your case for yolkich? So did you know what the guy put it for yolkich?
I know what the I'm a true believer in a kolyokich. What's your case for yolkich? So if you watch this guy play, he's a really good passagian You should check him out sometime No, I mean it's interesting because it's different than the last couple of years because the volume element no longer favors yolkich And bead has played 43 fewer minutes at this point So you know less than one full game It's basically a tie from that standpoint and the question is one of performance So I suppose we should talk about why the advanced volume metrics still suggests that yolkich has been more valuable this season I think there's a few reasons that are interesting to unpack there I know Joe said recently he wasn't sure why a yolkich was rated as highly defensive highly defensively as he is And I agree that that one with with raptor in particular Which has him is the second best defensive player among high minutes players in the league is a little tough to understand Raptor to be clear is 538 all in one metric encapsulating both offense defense and total player value and I'm gonna be candid with you I have no earthly clue what in the hell is going on there because yolkich is rated as you said the second best defender in the NBA which is horse poo poo and He's like not quite double anybody else in total Raptor in the NBA But when I do my warps and snorps spreadsheet It spits out that yolkich is like ahead by a significant amount of margin when you sum all them up and all that and almost all of that Is 538 and the on-off numbers which we're gonna talk about so I've got no clue what's going on there And I agree with Joel and be but please get it before you continue I should say there's a third candidate who's averaging like 32 12 and 5 pulling for the top seed bucks I think he's equally viable. I think this is a three-man One third one third one third if you want to split it that way race I don't really get why he's a distant third except The minutes gap which for an award of this this is the award Minutes look everything's up to every individual order There's no criteria yet until the NBA imposes this game's played criteria on voters The minutes matter to me more for some awards than others none more so than most valuable player and there's a 250 300 minute ish Gap I think between honest and the two two centers that's meaningful to me But please continue and make the case for the big fella and Denver Yeah, so value is literally in the name of this award and values a combination of how well you play Relative to replacement level and how many minutes you play so yeah, that's that's a big factor in it Is I wrote about a few weeks ago in a mailbag even though?
Yannes is putting up the best season of his career in terms of his box score stats is not close to his best MVP seasons in terms The advanced stats because his efficiency has been has not been as good as those years and the standard is much higher now because the lead wide Efficiency has jumped even as compared to prior to the the pandemic shut down in that two thousand nineteen twenty regular season The most recently one for so you get an embed I mean I think so even if you don't view yolkich is that kind of defender like One of the things that I sometimes try to do with MVP I wrote about this back during the Russell Westbrook MVP Here is go through some of the advanced stats what makes sense to me and what doesn't across all of them and kind of make my estimate And I don't think you know yolkich I think you can make a case that he might be above average among all players as a defender Maybe not above average as a center you can't make a case of these Natalie But what happens I think sometimes the other end is we kind of simplify it to well These guys are all really good offensively and therefore they're kind of tied in defense is what makes a difference And that's one reason a lot of people will vote for Yannes or Joellen beat is that they are better defenders than yolkich I don't think that's accurate this year I think yolkich is in a different stratosphere with what he's doing offensively because of the fact that he is such a hub Not only isn't highly efficient score at a lower usage rate than years past but also with his playmaking I think he's more in the category of a Stefan Curry or a Damian Lillard And that's against me the advanced stats say and one element of that that Set part now or buddy and guess on this pod wrote about a few weeks ago in the dunked-on newsletter is that if you What a nerdy sentence that just was that was like the nerdiest sentence all of it put together ever uttered on this podcast coming from a semi nerd at the very least Anyway, what's up to what about was that if you kind of look at turnovers based on what you expect from a players role in their offense That even given their high usage rates Yannes and Joellen beat a relatively high turnover players which makes sense They're six foot eleven and seven feet tall. That's the reason the small guys handle the ball. It's much easier for them Even relative to what he relative to what he's doing is also a seven footer Nicole a yolkich has a below average turnover rate Then expect it I think that's something that you know It's hard to tell with the eye test because you can't see something that doesn't happen basically And it's the turnovers that don't happen for yolkich that are part of what separates him offensively and puts him I think enough ahead of them offensively to compensate for the fact that they're he's behind them defensively And by the same token you sometimes wave away turnovers by high usage players is just sort of the price of doing business Like this is just baked into their role. This is what happens They turn it over who cares he had four turnovers and four is this no big deal part of the reason why advanced stats love For instance Jimmy Butler so much more than traditional numbers Which really like Jimmy Butler but advanced metrics paying Jimmy Butler is like a top ten player in the league year after year Even when he scores 21 points a game is that he doesn't turn the ball over ever He gets a million free throws and it doesn't turn the ball over It's a lot of steals and gets a lot of steals too, which are super valuable without gambling Part of yolkich's efficiency this year and I agree with you like I think there is something Very difficult to quantify at least in traditional means and something just so catalytic about his playmaking that it's just It's it's it's it's hard to measure how powerful it is and the effect it has on the collective ecosystem in Denver Denver by the way ranks fifth and offensive efficiency the six is ranked second Part of yolkich's efficiency argument is that he's shooting 63% overall six three 68% on twos.
I think the MB backers would say well, that's because he's so choosy his usage rate is so much lower than MBs and His he's taking X shots per 36 minutes. I don't know what it is But it's not a high number for an MVP candidate so he's he's doing his version of the thing where LeBron got to Miami And he was like I want to shoot 58% for the floor I'm just gonna take dunks and layups and all the best shots What is your counter and and B doesn't have perhaps the luxury of being so choosy even though if you stacked up their supporting casts You know, I think probably most observers would take Phillies over Denver's Actually, I actually that argument is much closer than the people who just sort of throw away Denver supporting cast I think it is I think it's much closer But what is your counter to that argument that you'll catch is being finicky and propping up his shooting efficiency as a result Yeah, I mean look, you know a well calibrated all in one metric should account for that There is obviously a benefit higher usage all other things equal and you know I think again if you isolated the scoring element it would probably be relatively close between you know these John is a little bit behind this season because again He hasn't been as efficient but has played the highest usage role of these three and it's the playmaking that separates them offensively I guess that's the other piece of it is like look It's one thing if you're refusing to ever shoot and your team is struggling to score as a result of it But if you're shooting infrequently because of the fact that you're diving up Aaron Gordon all the time at the rim That's in a different matter entirely and you know Denver's offense being where it is I haven't looked specifically at the Encourt offensive ratings for him beating yolkitch specifically, but I would you like them go for it The nuggets with Nicole yolkitch on the floor scoring 124 points per 100 possessions Which would lead the NBA by acres and acres and acres in team level offense No offense is over 120 the Kings lead the League of 119.1 the six with him beat on the floor are scoring 100 and 19 points per 100 possessions so the equivalent of the best offense in the entire NBA And I think what those numbers are saying is like they both what does doing case you sing about the cat There's multiple ways to skin the cat like whatever way their skin in the cat for their teams It's working like those teams are machines when they're on the floor Offensively Denver is a little bit more efficient of a machine with yolkitch on the floor than the sixes are with them Beat on the floor, but we're just talking at this point about degrees of amazing this like with yolkitch on the floor The nuggets are about plus 11 and a half per 100 possessions overall with them beat on the floor It's about plus nine and a half. It's like, you know fine 11 and a half bigger than nine half They're both amazing their teams are amazing when they play and so yeah I would agree with you that the counter to the finicky argument is well Whatever he's doing whatever passing scoring balance. He has chosen this season is working like gangbusters for the nuggets Yeah, it's it's most valuable player not only valuable player award and look You watch him beat on a night like Tuesday night when he has it going and Boston a team that traditionally is defended him pretty Well, I mean maybe not as well as the reputation, but yeah, I said that on NBA today by the way We did a whole segment that day before the game Zach, why do you think the Celtics have and beads number and I said my first response was I am dismissing the whole question I don't really think the Celtics have been beat number in a meaningful way Yes, there are one in eight in the playoffs against Boston For the five of those games were in 2019 or eight I think 2019 and four of them were in the bubble when Ben Simmons didn't play and like Alport for an adjuster We're on the Sixers like I'm just I'm just dismissing it Yes, Grant Williams is annoying and Alport for it is annoying to him be like he's fine against the Celtics And I said that day if you're a Boston fan and you're like we got this in the second round like we got this This is a non threat to us because of our regular season record and old playoff record against the Sixers I would check that sentiment at the door I don't think you've got this with that dude playing like this if hardens Achilles calf whatever the hell we're talking about now Allows him to perform at like B plus James harden level.
Yeah, maybe the better way to put it is What Boston is one of the league's better defensive teams? They have a number of great individual defenders. It's zero answer number and be in the you know Mid-the-high post just isolating and knocking down jumper because who has an answer that? I mean it's a seven footer doing that like that's that's what Kevin Durant does That's what makes him so amazing But in beat is doing that with all the other center attributes that he brings to the table and Boston's whole thing is so I think that Hardin has made him beats life easier having one of the great pick and roll pass or says just produce these buckets that didn't really Exists for him before he's been able to migrate from oh man I got a bowl over people in the post over and over again This is his least post touches in any season of his career is this season because like I can just screen I don't even have to roll that hard I'd like it when he mixes in some hard rolls, but if I just sort of drift down to 12 feet and catch there it's done It's money It's a it's a fifty five six percent shot if he's open and Boston's whole thing is you don't get to make those catches We're not letting you make those catches if that means we give harden more of a driving lane and dare him to beat us at the rim We're gonna do that some if that means we have to switch we're gonna do that some if that means we have to switch and then Scram our little guy out and have a switch behind the switch We're gonna do that if that means we leave PJ Tucker and Tyree Smaxie open or semi open or whatever we're gonna swarm you and do that and He put up 52 points anyway against them It was really incredible and it's funny bring up Westbrook It reminded me of Westbrook's game against Denver in 2017 when he hit a buzzer beater and broke the triple-double record in the same game And the MVP race ended that night for a lot of voters And I think the MVP race ended the other night for a lot of voters not for you Maybe not for me.
Can I make the MB case? Of course. This is MB's best offensive season ever He's shooting 55% and 58% on twos 58% on twos I think his passing has improved throughout the course of the season and particularly just zeroing in on the last two weeks I think it's six assists against Boston and you got PJ Tucker all those corner three is late in the game I thought in the last two weeks I don't know if somebody said something to him if you read something if he's hearing all this stuff about you'll get just passing Or Michael Peanut wrote a wonderful piece for the ringer about how Embiid handles double teams differently than yolka She'll get you using them as an opportunity to pass right away And Embiid kind of likes to hold the ball and sometimes force it You know who he handles double teams like by the way it struck me watching Clippers Lakers last night He handles double teams like Kawai or Kobe Bryant He handles double teams like I'll let you come over here You can come over here. Come on and I'm gonna read the floor and I'm gonna watch I'm gonna look at the rotations behind this double team And I may just shoot over it or I may just see if the doubler will go back on a pass fake and then I can drive to the rim he reminds me of like a wing in the way he handles those double teams, but I think his passing's been better and I know yolka just had his best offensive season ever But I don't I think if there was a gap on offense between them I think it has shrunk a little bit this year relative to where it has been in prior years And I think the gap on defense is widened I think this has been yolka's worst defensive season in a few years in the last two months the first the first month He was completely out of it And that's when I first wrote about his kickballs And now he was just waving at shots at the rim and like not even really bothering to contest them and the last month same thing and As we're gonna talk about maybe the most difficult individual award for me that this whole entire season is defensive player of the year It would be much easier if Jared Jackson Jr.
had like 300 more minutes But he doesn't not saying I'm not gonna vote for him Just saying it would be easier to just be like obviously he's the best defender in the NBA And I've had a number of people in front of his and coaching staff asked me if you consider it in beat Like I think I'm beat has a case for defense player of the year. I can't go there That's too far for me I don't think his effort is consistent enough for me to put him in that conversation But he's obviously very good defensively He makes 15 defense plays every game that you'll get you could never make some of them are like possession bail out saving blocks And the fact that these people who know more about me than about basketball more than me about basketball who live in the game are nominating and beat is consideration for defense player there means something to me and I guess that's the case the offensive gap is closed the defensive gap to me has widened and Embead's team is just as good if not better than an ugots Is there anything else? I mean look as we started with the again the volume element was a big part of this argument in years past And you know which is favor it is not anymore I think the MB defensive player the year element is interesting because you know you go back a couple years ago when he Defense player the year debate It's always heated is met because it's so so so difficult to parse out as you said was Ben Simmons And you looked at the numbers and it seemed more clear that dual and beat had a more consistent impact year over year on the six defense Then Simmons dead just because of the nature of interior defense versus perimeter defense. Yeah We're gonna talk about then Simmons later the other thing, you know, I've gone back and forth on this I've been surprised by how many of the most Rational analytical unemotional Unmoved by narrative storytelling emotion any of these subjective things that influenced this debate I've been shocked at how many of them around the league within teens people I talked to Really believe in a way that has influenced my thought process at least a little bit really believe that this award is of such a magnitude in the history of the NBA that the standards for a three-peat should be even higher than they are for someone to win twice or The first time that if you're gonna if you're gonna win three times in a row the standards for that third one are higher Some people when they say that means mean the standards of what you do in that particular regular season have to be so incredible to really blow away the field Some percentage of those people think you'll get to check that box some do not some of those people by standards mean You need to have you need to have accomplished enough in the playoffs that you're in like the upper upper upper upper upper echelon of all-time players already and by that logic to those people you'll get using quite there and There are more people than I expected who?
Who viewed who are some of them are analytics people who I think of as like the most rational people in the league Who have said to me? I do think the standards should be higher for a three-peat just as it was for Giannis when he didn't win the third year in a row After the bucks had not yet won a title and all that stuff I I I give that argument more credence today than I did three months ago because I keep hearing it from smart people I mean people who care about the game You know I think the the fact that it has been established is at least a storyline It's not like this is something that just came up when Giannis was going for a third or yolkitch was going through it It was kind of a concept that was already out there beforehand makes it probably more difficult to you know sway in people's minds I mean it's it's look this is a totally subjective thing There's not a wrong opinion on what goes into determining most valuable in the game season or considering the historical significance or legacy of it It's not something I'm gonna factor in and I do think it for most people is probably more of the tiebreaker element Which is why you'll get looked like the favorite a couple months ago before and beat strong finishing kick and you'll get you missing some time And it's only I think he has played his way in Jamaica to factor in the race if that makes sense Absolutely. Oh, yeah, it's all contingent on like the other rivals have to measure up and these two rivals have measured up I'm gonna end I have not submitted my valid yet, but I'll finish with this Win or lose and I think Joellen beat is gonna win. I guess we won't know officially Until later in the postseason, but now all the people count the votes and people publish their votes So we'll probably know ish I said this before the season and talking about the Sixers And why I believed in the Sixers as a not title favorite, but for sure title contender Because I don't think there's good as Boston and I think there's been a walkie But I damn well think they can beat those teams in a playoff series if they play really really well get a break or two We've been waiting on the epic and beat postseason run for a long time It hasn't happened yet in fact I think he's been probably slightly under productive by his standards in the postseason versus a regular season And I said before the season if they keep getting in and they keep getting high seeds that run is coming the run where he doesn't suffer a Fluke injury and just has games like he did the other night maybe not 50 point games, but But asserts his presence as I'm the most important guy in the series not Kawhi Leonard in the when back in the Raptors series Maybe not even honest for four and seven not Jason Tatum me and I'm going to will us to At least game seven of this year's or whatever it is that's coming and I just as a fan I hope it comes this year and if you wins the MVP and it doesn't come the same scrutiny that all the Philly fans have been thrown A yokech all year long a guy who's gotten further than the Sixers have gotten in the playoffs in Salin Aversim's in Philly That's coming Can I ask you about a couple other awards that I'm having problems with so I haven't spent as much time on these awards We can talk them through Defensive player of the year are you just is it just no brainer Jarrin Jackson Jr.
to you? No, I don't think so I mean from the you know the volumes standpoint and then from Importance to the Milwaukee defense that's constructed around jam I don't think he's is singularly important to Milwaukee is Jarrin Jackson Jr. Is perhaps a Memphis because we've seen what the Memphis defense looked like Without Jarrin Jackson Jr. in the first part of the season But I think those two in particular are both in consideration in my mind and I haven't haven't dug deep into the stats to separate them What do you think of Evan Mowley?
I think he's still a level below them in this in this this question I would say so I keep hearing that from people around the league because I'm flirting with a Mobley defense He's on my short list of like if there are four guys I could plausibly vote number one for this award He's one of them. I saw Joe Varden in the athletic announced he is voting for Evan Mobley for defense player of the year I just think he's unbelievable probably the first month of the season. He was not quite up to the standard He's at now. Maybe the first six weeks He's not as physically strong as Jarrin Jackson Jr.
You're like you can nudge Evan Mobley out of the way At the rim in a way that you cannot with Jarrin Jackson Jr. Orbroke Lopez or Bama to bio Who I don't I don't think it's gonna be on the short list for this award this year The advanced metrics don't love it. I just like him I think something is wrong with those advanced metrics because I watch him like this guy's unbelievable speak it switch He can protect the rim. He blocks shots out of nowhere He is rock solid in his rotations He does not make mistakes and he's played a crap ton of minutes for the number one defense in the NBA and People are gonna look at the on-off number and say well They're slightly better with Evan Mobley off the floor I don't care because with Evan Mobley on the floor they are the number one defense in the NBA Oh, you know if you go to the luck adjusted our APM on NBA shots charts.com like he comes out Right near the top of the league in terms of on-off impact So I don't think that should be the arc events.
He's number one in fact So what's so what am I missing? I think it's the fact that his room protection numbers aren't at the same level as those two guys And that is the more consistent more stable element of defense It sort of cuts the argument I just made that you know the adjusted post-minus is what's gonna be picking up the value of switching and the value of versatility But like he's a tiny bit ahead of Jarrin Jackson Jr That metric during Jackson Jr's a lot ahead in the ones that you know value kind of the boxing world of defense It's gonna be a tight race if that one I guess there's there's no more information for that one I just have to make a decision It's one of these hard to quantify things is like I think Jarrin Jackson is by your non trivial margin the best per minute defender of the NBA So it's like value times minutes equals this whereas Mobley's value times minutes equals this There's no final answer to that question. Mobley obviously has like a thousand more minutes than Jarrin Jackson Jr And then there's Brooke Lopez who's been unbelievable Particularly in the last three months by way unbelievable on offense to like really really great season for Proclopas I think dream on green has a case and we can go on and on I'll just I'll just say this now This is all defense I gotta find my list of people the number of names that are in contention for the forward spots on all defense Mobley Jarrin Jackson Jr. Giannis dream on green who's eligible at center to Jaden McDaniel's OGN and OB It's gonna be like they're gonna be named McHale bridges.
They're gonna be names that don't make it where like oh my god This guy didn't make all defenses. It's just too crowded Yeah, I mean I feel like I've heard this about Jim McDaniel's in particular like what he's gonna be first team like He took that for granted like he's not going to be I'll tell you this He's not gonna be first team on my ballot because my first team forwards are gonna be honest and well We'll see honest some combination of Giannis Jr. And Evan Mobley are gonna be my first team forwards I mean I think the guard line is really difficult as well in terms of you know Maybe not quite it is greatest season for Marcus Smorgas We saw last year only one defensive player of the year and some of the old stamp eyes But then you've got you know Alex Caruso as as I think a strong case to be in there doing Brooks You look at his on-off impact It's nearly significant as Jarrin Jackson Jr. Some Memphis there's interesting battles there as well So I've got I've got six total front court slots between Janis Jarrin Jackson Jr.
Broglow Pez Jada McDaniel's OGN and OV Evan Mobley Bama to Bio dream Hungary and Nick Clackston And you can probably go on from there And I say six front court ones because a couple of these guys are gonna be eligible at forward and center by Anthony Davis I think deserves consideration to even though he's gonna get to like whatever 50 whatever games he's played He's been humble. You might I've had people make the case for him as defensive player of the year And so it's gonna be it's gonna be tight. It's gonna be tight So rookie of the year I mentioned before the podcast that I have type-cached you as a Walker Kessler voter And my typecasting was correct. Let me let me ask you this I'm just looking up numbers Well your typecasting was correct in terms of you know you and Chris Harry and had a conversation about rookies a few weeks ago and Mention Kessler prominently in the rookie of your conversation to be honest on the ballot And I do feel like I have decided I'm gonna pick but I do think I was the only person outside the state of Utah who listened to that conversation It was like you guys sure changed Walker Kessler So I'm not gonna vote for Walker Kessler Walker Kessler.
We'll finish third on my rookie of the year ballot And he should be a unanimous first team all in all rookie whenever My first team all rookie is likely gonna be Walker Kessler Gelling Williams Oklahoma City wing Gelling Williams Paolo Ban Caro, I'm gonna I'm gonna grandfather in math or in despite the late season swamp and Keegan Murray that's likely to be my first team all rookie But anyway, I read Michael Pina's awards column with great curiosity today because I respected my knowledge You watch as a league and it had a line in there So this is just similar to what I talked about with Risillo and Simmons this week the line was something like I don't care that Paolo Ban Caro is shooting 29.8% on threes and 47% on twos I don't care the line was because of all the other stuff He does he's a really good passer. He's like top 12 in the league and free throws He's the number one option on a team that is I think something like 28 and 24 in its last 52 games like a legit decent team Am I allowed to care a little bit that he's shooting 47% on twos and 29.8% on threes like I'm Can I just not wish those are bad shooting numbers? Can I I'm just not allowed to care at all and specifically I'm not allowed to care at all that jail in Williams is shooting 36% on threes and 58% on twos look at and I know the context I know that he's not the number one option SGA who's gonna be on my first team all NBA Is the number one option got it. I know Orlando has been just as good by record If not by point differential and actual quality as a thunder over the last 50 games So you can't really really use winning as like a big dramatic cudgel in this award But I'm just not allowed to care at all that the shooting differentials are that big Especially since the passing numbers are about the same and I think Jill Williams is like a better defender by some degree than Paolo Bank here I just don't get like oh it doesn't matter that he's shooting 29.8% on threes and 47% on twos it What can it what why am I not allowed to care about it?
I don't get it He'll give us an interesting thing interesting thing. We've talked about it before I think it was you know This was slightly different We talked about it with Patrick Williams where rookies basically like a lot of it is well Are they throwing anything up and if not great? But maybe they're not actually doing all that much But then it's odd because then they become second and third year players and all of a sudden those same things that you were worried about at all When they were rookies you start to worry about more when they're second I'm not gonna have this become Patrick Williams slander KP because it's gonna be 20 It's gonna be 2031 and I'm gonna be on this podcast being like man if Patrick Williams just starts to shoot a little more He's gonna really figure it out like the body type is there blah blah blah I'm never giving up on Patrick. What Jeff Green is to Ryan Russell.
Patrick Williams is going to be to me. I know you'd figure out who that guy is for me You know not every story is like Patrick Williams I will say there are a lot of cases like look Kevin Durant was in a similar situation where he didn't score that efficiently Is a rookie in Seattle is you know the go-to score on 18? It was more or less constructed to be bad at that point in anticipation of the extended rebuild that would eventually pay off in Oklahoma City And he was running rookie the year without much controversy and that was obviously like from a historical standpoint He was the best player in that draft class the fact that Al Horford is kind of more of a world player in Atlanta It was more valuable as a rookie didn't matter And that's always kind of the central tension of this rookie of the year award is how do you treat these players or extremely talented? But or being overexposed early in their career because even though It's not just the Palo Bayon Carros.
Whoa is bigger than Jalen Williams. It's also the Jalen Williams spent three years in college I think if I'm in two but definitely more than one is older than Palo Bayon Carros So all those factors kind of I think go into the way that people talked about it But it does make it extremely difficult to compare it especially like Jalen Williams is one thing But you can pair Palo Bayon Carros to Walker Kessler who is a very relatively small part of the Utah offense or the other numerical guy this year is Tariessen who writes to him Tariessen I've seen him left off all rookie second teams He is a stone cold lock to appear on my all-rokey second team and I almost put him on my all-rokey first team He needs to be on one of the all-rokey teams probably the second team Yeah, the worst thing about Walker Kessler by the way is that just when I thought we were done with hearing the jazz people talk about screen assists is we're gonna we're gonna just get back to hey in like three years It's like Walker Kessler if you check the screen another screen assist for Walker Kessler He said a screen I mean it's important But I just don't need to hear about it all the time because his usage rate is 12% the good thing about Walker Kessler is Compared to his predecessor. He has he's got like soft hands and good touch and he's gonna do more stuff on offense So that maybe they don't have to just like trump up the screen assisting, but he will finish 30 my rookie year But it's not like Jill Williams is a wallflower he's urging 14 points a game on really efficient shooting and in the last couple months It's been like 20 points a game. I understand that the first couple months also matter I just I haven't decided who I'm voting for I'm gonna watch this thunder game tonight closely that because I'm not gonna lie if you know Williams continues to surge and like as a 35 Point game in a must-win game for the thunder the magic I'm playing a must-win game in like 10 years That might just just a little it's a little data point.
It's a little data point I just don't really get why we're not allowed to care about the shooting percentage. That's all yeah I mean it definitely matters and it's a thing that in the first month of the season We were amazed at palaban carol's efficiency because he was scoring more efficiently at that point than he had a Duke Which is not generally what's supposed to happen for guys that are playing that large rules offensively in the NBA and the freeze-all rate has remained very strong That's still good, but the shooting percentages from the field have slipped pretty dramatically since that hot start And let me say this so that the 24 Orlando Magic fans in Orlando, Florida Don't come at me I've he was in my first ten things of the whole year that dude is going to be a monster for a long long time and an all-star For a long long time. He has it on offense. He can do everything pretty well.
He's a really good passer He's gonna get better abusing mismatches. He's gonna get better shooting threes But the feel the versatility Discoring the ability to get to the line like he's got it and he's a better defender than I thought he would be based on all the stuff It was was sort of based on the pre draft reputation like he's smart He moves his feet pretty well that shot block over he takes charges He's a wary makes the right rotations like I'm a huge palaban carol fan You think I say I understand we were stereotyping me as a Walker cussler voter my actual stereotype is palaban carol voter because I'm from Seattle and like my grandparents sadly they're no longer with us to confirm this But we're pretty sure that they like knew his grandparents no kidding So it's a relatively small Italian American community in Seattle I guess I type-custure because among the people I ask about these awards are analytics people who work for teams and their response like Unanimously is how are you even debating this? It's Walker Kessler like it's Walker Kessler by a mile It's Walker Kessler and then everyone else I'm like is it like really I don't know I disagree with you people. Sorry Okay, let's switch gears and talk about the East for just a little bit here where you we are almost pretty much locked in to Well, certainly one to six is almost stone cold lock in Miami at seven is a borderline cinch eight nine between the Raptors and the Hawks the race that the whole world is talking about It's leading CNN all day long today Raptors Hawks for the eight and eight nine seeds and the Bulls are at 10th So I think we can probably preview if the Hawks get the job done Which they should we're gonna have a Miami Atlanta play in game in a Toronto Chicago play in game is our first two play in games Which one you want to talk about two just a few minutes because we may not even get these because the Hawks will probably crap the bed and threaten This whole structure, but they have the tiebreaker over the Raptors All I got there imagine numbers one to make this happen Just a lot of red in the logos in the East play is what stands out to me Let's start Raptors bullets because he talks we saw in the first round last year Obviously some different pieces in Atlanta in particular.
Okay, so Raptors Bulls the Raptors have the season series two to one Only one has happened since the trade deadline Really just an unappealing stylistic the two teams are can't shoot straight And it's not gonna be fun to watch we do get the dorozan revenge factor, which is kind of fun And if you're gonna I would favorite Toronto at home if they will be at home if this game does in fact take place But if you're gonna if you're gonna beat Toronto Other than hoping they just miss all their shots It helps to be able to control the possession game Toronto wins by controlling the possession game and the Bulls are Sixth and forcing turnovers. Thanks largely Alex Caruso who will be on one of my old defense teams Third and defensive rebounding the Raptors are an enormously powerful offensive rebounding team So you got to protect the glass and they're starting five although small with Pat Beverly Caruso Levine dorozan is the four and Which has a incredible defense rebound rate and they're ninth in Turnover right on offense. I eat they don't turn it over a lot. So they had the possession game largely on lock obviously Toronto had to say in that and And and the flip side is what we'll talk about a couple flip sides But the other the other way to be Toronto is they give up a lot of threes they can test them pretty well But they give up a lot of threes and the Bulls God bless them They don't take a lot of threes and they don't make a lot of threes This feels like it's a zaklavine matchup because you know without having having Remembered off the top my head rafters bull's match up to go get a video tape like the upside of the Raptors defensively is They have a lot of guys with size that they can put on tomorrow's and it's gonna be hard for him to play bully ball against them He can you know probably get his way to the free throw line But I think that the plain Elavian centric style is probably more favorable for Chicago in this matchup than in durosan centric style Well to your point obviously Toronto can flip the match up So I really wanted but they have often guarded Levine with Fred van Vliet who's much shorter than Levine But very pesky and good at getting through screens They have largely guarded durosan with OGN and OB which just is incredibly unpleasant to even think about what it's like to have OGN and OB guarding you and One of the things they do with the Rosen and the Bulls is not only will they put an OB on them if it's a frozen Vuchavitch pick and roller whoever pick and roll they'll have the defender on the screener whether it's purdle or whoever come really high up to the Level of the screen to take away the Rosen's mid-range game He's not walking into mid-range jumpers against the Raptors like his for other teams and they'll help behind that So Vuch doesn't get a clean catch on the roll or whatever and basically dare the Bulls supporting players almost none of them are good shooters Other than Levine to beat them with threes and betting that they won't beat them with three either by choice or by missing So that'll be an interesting matchup to watch I guess I can't get into banking picks It's just like one game any game in one game if Levine has 45 points of both of win But it's an interesting matchup anything else you want to talk about with that?
Yeah, I mean the answer in terms of picks is probably whoever has some court advantage, but that's not super interesting Miami Atlanta or I'm sorry Miami Yeah, Miami Atlanta in the 7-8 game the teams that will be in double elimination Look, I think that's a juicy game because one of the big reasons that the Jante Murray is on the Hawks and all the draft picks and stuff Is in San Antonio is because in the playoffs last season Miami through the kitchen sink at Trey young and the Hawks had nothing in response No one else who could make them pay off the dribble Trey young wilted under all the pressure that the heat were throwing at him And this season's matchup has been largely the same It's 3-1 Miami and you know what you're gonna get they're gonna blitz Trey young pressure Trey young Caleb Martin's actually done a pretty good job On Trey young and select matchups and Jimmy Butler is gonna find Trey young on every single possession when it really matters and try to grind To this game into an ugly brute force half court game where the heats offense Which is like 25th in the NBA can put up enough points to win and that formula has been successful against Atlanta I think everyone will just kind of assume it's gonna be a heat walkover and every time you get a matchup like that We just kind of yeah, we've seen that before I get a little nervous because the Hawks now DeAndre Hunter has been out The Hawks have talent like they have a lot of talent and they're a pretty good team I just I think it's actually kind of I understand they had a coaching change so this whole year just feels like a trial balloon But like show up like show up against an emphasis that embarrass you last year and let's see what you got because I think they can win that game Also, no play they won three games that are out for the first time since you know before this entire streak of them never being More than one game away for any of them against the Wizards I feel like the Hawks play the Wizards 17 times a year One of them was against the Wizards That was the most recent one they played the Wizards three times in the past month I just feel like they something's wrong with the NBA schedule. I don't it the Hawks Wizards play 17 times a year What else about that game anything else? Yeah, I mean I think this is really the test of what difference De Jontay Murray makes for the reason to you laid out like I started out with They always seen this before but as you point out this was the Marie trade was the response to that And of course, there's a different coach with been snider on the sidelines And you know how much he's actually been able to shift things at this point is still remains to be seen but you know It is a different matchup than it was before and Miami I think they're one of those teams that they were kind of East Coast Warriors and that everyone was like well eventually the run It's just gonna come right and still hasn't really come and instead It's kind of the other direction heading into the play up. Yeah, I don't see it with Miami this year Especially if they end up having to play Boston or Milwaukee in the first round I've Chris Middleton got hurt a couple nights last night in the box game he left after the first substitution with Reactivation of his right knee.
I've heard so far that there's not a lot of concerns about him missing time So let's pencil him into the first round Maybe almost a week or ten days or something. Let's pencil him into the first round. I Just they don't have the vibe of a team that can get it together the way that the Warriors have the vibe of a team They can get it together, but we'll see the heater dangerous. We know the heater day I wouldn't just look past them But I don't see it this year and the last year is that we have set in something like stone is Philly Brooklyn And can I just say how angry I am that of all the possible iterations of Philadelphia Brooklyn This is the one we are getting Ben Simmons is injured James Harden is gone.
Kyrie Irving is gone Kevin Durant is gone Philly is amazing This is the series last year had it happen where I would have been at every single game soaking it all up And now we get this what a bummer now the nets are fine and they're frisky and you know whatever They played one since the trade that I know was a close game Spencer didn't we'd actually hit a game tying three that was waved off because after the buzzer just feels like such a Letdown such a letdown oh I'm actually relieved because what Twitter is a pretty fragile place right now head six Nets happened with Ben Simmons in the lineup and Durant and Kyrie still in Brooklyn That takes had the potential to break Twitter and possibly take down the entire internet infrastructure with them So maybe it's a relief from that standpoint that this will be a decidedly less takey series I think it'll be interesting to see what McHail Bridges looks like as a go-to guy in a playoff setting where a team is preparing for him over multiple Games adjusting damn that sort of thing because that's a level of challenge that he has not yet faced in that role Yeah, they have some they have wings to throw it harden and maxi, you know like defensively they have a bunch of wings Okay, and beat is gonna eat in his like Nick Laxon. God bless him. He's had a great season He's an all-defensive candidate most improved candidate He's given up a lot of weight and muscle to Joellen Bead and then that's know that and they're gonna have to scheme around it and test His passing as we talked about earlier. I want to can I give you a little bit of Brooklyn Nets trivia?
Okay? Really exciting stuff Kevin Day-round sharp Brooklyn's backup center you made a furt of them. You probably have heard of him I want you to play at Carolina a little bit with the Nets didn't know that he went to Carolina I just learned something he passed 500 minutes played last night in the Nets whatever I think they beat the remnants of the Detroit Pistons And that's significant to me because among all players in the history of the NBA who have played 500 minutes in any season ever Day-round sharp the day-round sharp is now on pace for the highest offensive rebounding rate in basketball history He has rebounded 21.4% of Brooklyn's missus wall on the floor Which would top all the Moses and all seasons all the Dennis Robin seasons all the recorded rebounding seasons in the history of basketball For players who have played 500 minutes in a season which is my loose like this you were like a participant in the NBA season if you crack 500 minutes I Has no bearing on anything in the series. I just thought it was funny and then that is interesting I look he he's gonna have to play they're gonna have to use multiple bags to defend and beat over this course this series I'm just so bummed It was such a spicy was the spicy as possible series I mean think of what it potentially we potentially gained if it's you know, it's on warriors or sun's clippers So that's a happy boy now Cleveland Knicks.
I'm not I haven't brought up here because that I'm gonna really dive deeper into I'm gonna watch a lot of film on that and think hard about that I'll do the same for sixers Nets But I just wanted to really I brought it up just to share my frustration about how the series is out Cleveland Knicks I'm gonna dive in I'm gonna watch nine of the Mitchell's pick and rolls against the Knicks and watch You know Brunson stuff and Randall stuff knock on wood Randall's healthy enough to play in the series Do you have any initial thoughts on the Donovan Mitchell bowl? Yeah, you know, this came up on the who clapped collective podcast earlier this week with David Benham and Nick for now We're on there and I was surprised that there wasn't much discussion of Tom Thibodeau's play recent playoff track record Which is not not not great now. Fortunately, they are not the home higher seed in the series Which is has tended to go well for Thibode stands But there is an element where they're you know, they're their diligence and they're keeping guys on the court in the regular season It's just not translated the same way when you get to the grind of a playoff setting And I think going up against the Cleveland team that like look these are three teams of games apart in the standings But point differential even though the Knicks are fully legit this year like Cleveland is number two in the entire NBA I feel pretty confident in Cleveland's chances and also the chances that this will be thrown back in my face by next fans If they indeed win the series again I don't make picks until I sit down and watch the film and get a better feel for you know How the match will take place and who so much a playoff series really is like who can guard who it all stems from there? If you don't have someone who can guard that guy X, then you got to adjust them This is all I got to dig in a little bit, but I do just sort of I do worry about the Knicks offense against Cleveland's defense It's just Brunson has been amazing and Randall has been amazing and their offense has been amazing all season I just worry about Cleveland's defense grinding them the dust in the half court on the other hand I worry about this Isaac a Koro lingering injury for Cleveland and you know Any lineup that has two of Dean Wade Lamar Stevens a Koro osmond I start to get a little nervous about life for the Cavs and about defenses forcing the ball to places where they wanted to go But those four top guys are so goddamn good that you know it's fine.
We didn't talk about all NBA And particularly all NBA guards and forwards which after the first team I'm having a lot of trouble with I'm not gonna I don't want to spoil too many of my choices, but I Think the three like absolute locks for all NBA guard Are Shae Gilbs Alexander Donovan Mitchell and despite all the crap in Dallas Luca Donchich and to Portland fans who are saying what about Damian Lillard let's just say Damian Lillard is gonna is a very strong case to be an all-in-babe player I No one talks about Darius Garland nobody because he's the number two guard on Cleveland So I get it if you're picking six guards or really gonna pick two Cavs I get it you stack his numbers up advanced traditional However, you want to do it against any of these other dudes now not necessarily lillard because he averaged 32 points a game But his team stinks and he's played 58 games not curry who is curry and it's played 54 games But he's Steph Curry, but you stack him up against the other guys He might be becoming the most underrated he might be taken to drew holiday mantle as most underrated guard in the NBA I suppose whether to hold I've ex-all right this year in his own rights. He's got a pretty good case. Yeah, he has a very good case Yeah, I have Dame fourth among the guards same top three is you you know I haven't decided between Luca and Shae Gilbs Alexander for that second spot on the first team But wait wait that means I'm Mitchell is locked into the first spot on the first team I have him ahead of Shay at this point. Yeah, oh I have sga So my minor spoiler right now my first team and again the Dallas the Dallas stuff is one that is gonna go down to the wire Just like I mentioned jail in Williams rookie of the year like Dallas is still playing for stuff But right now my first team guards are sga and down in Mitchell.
I'm bumping Luca as of now Thursday April 6th at 628 Eastern I'm bumping which I just a sentence. I didn't think I would say I'm bumping Luca not just the second team It's understandable. Yeah, I don't see a lot of separation between those three guys I think they're on the same tier rarely do I say like old school sports or not actually not sure sometimes I do I don't think you can make first team all NBA on a bad team and the maths are just the badges aren't a good team They're they're gonna finish well, but not like one game below 500 to get to a 500 They're gonna finish well, we'll see what they finish they could finish actually They could finish 40 and 42. I just I don't you can't make first team all NBA on a 40 and 42 poop team I I think it's more that the struggles in the back half of the season I had something to do with Luca John Church and his pension for technical fouls He's avoided, you know another suspension thanks to the the rescinding of his most recent technical foul It hasn't gotten one since then but like you know that element of it I he just has not been the same player down the stretch So I think you can make it on a 40 and 42 team But look is probably probably not the right guy for that that to be the poster child of that argument.
We're talking about Garland I think you had some thoughts on Garland and yes or guard you had four guards locked in and you have a little It is a lock I do have him a lock is a lock and I think stuff might be the next guy up for me Which would you say the logical conundrum you come in if you're gonna lock in game is how do you not lock in? Steph because their numbers are pretty similar I think we all agree stuff's a better player and the game's played is gonna finish pretty close to even so that that's the that's the It's hard to put one on without the other so the I was surprised how well Garland came out kind of combining the all-in-one numbers that I looked at and one of the aspects of that that I think is interesting to dig into is He comes out as an above average defender in the consensus and that seems to me like it's probably a function of the Team he's on in the scheme. He's in more than it is Darius Garland's merits as an individual defender I will say I've part of Cleveland's defense begins with those two big guys Mobley and Allen who are amazing the level of buy-in effort and schematic execution from guards who until this season were not regarded as good defense players Donovan Mitchell Carousel Vert and Darius Garland has been really really a pleasant surprise of the season those guys have been grinding all like denying passing lanes Getting around screens being physical the hard work of defense They've done it all season, which is part of the reason why I don't know where he will land But he is going to be on my ballot. JB.
Picker staff is gonna be on my coach of the year ballot He's gotten absolutely no buzz in the coach of the year race He's like the 11th name that you hear I think he belongs in serious serious consideration I mean Mike Brown is gonna win and Mike Brown deserves to win But after that, I think JB bigger staff has as good of a go CA as any coach in the NBA this year I I haven't looked at that one either I think the four names for my ballot would probably be those two mark Dagnol And then I think we'll already deserve some recognition for the fact he you tried getting career guys from so years careers from so many guys Kevin Pelton any parting thoughts anything you're looking forward to or just watching carefully in these last couple of games Are you just didn't put right wake me up at the play in? I'm not gonna wake me up at the play and I you know Be hard the next couple of nights because we have these hoops and it practices conflicting with some of the games and Have to try to follow them and then the actual game will be on Saturday night But if we do get a scenario for shenanigans like that I will be I will be tuned in for sure and we do get Denver Suns tonight as the late national TV game Which we'll see how many of the Denver players we get but I am I think the Suns need these games to just sort of get where they want to go So that's interesting Kevin Pelton What are we what are we gonna see from you next week? Are we gonna see awards columns? Are we gonna see playoff preview columns?
Are we gonna see who some of the columns? What should we look for? You know, I don't have anything specific on the docket except I am in all likelihood right about Alia Boston is she's the presumptive number one pick of the WNBA draft next Monday and Congratulations to LSU on winning the national championship in kind of a letdown title game I was really excited to watch a wire-to-wire game But it was a little bit not a letdown for LSU. They were also it was an awesome Yeah, terrific shot making from them.
Yeah, Kevin Pelton ESPN calm all things basketball. Thank you sir. Thanks for having me