Kontrarian Korner #144 - Craig Tindale

Yesterday I had Craig Tindale back on the podcast for a great conversation. We covered supply chains such as naphtha and fertilizers, and why it will take some time to feed into the system. He also laid out why companies across the world shifted to just in time inventory management over the last several decades, the impact of hyperfinancialization, protectionist trade policy, and the real impact of climate change and other environmental policies. We wrapped up by talking about the different institutional hallucinations, and why AI is in the early innings of exponential growth. For anyone interested in the intersection of the physical world and supply chains, geopolitics and institutional policy, and the development of AI, this one’s for you. You can find Craig on Twitter, and his Substack is below.Podcast Summary* The disruptions in the naphtha and fertilizer (and other various) supply chains, and why it will take up to a year for the system to feel the true impact.* How the level of the Rhine River in Germany impacts trade and manufacturing in Germany all the way to China.* Why we will see supply chain disruptions flare up in different places and at different times over the next decade. * Protectionist trade policy and why the West is reversing course on offshoring many different industries.* Hyperfinancialization and how the incentives of the system have created distortions.* The real side effects of climate change, environmental policy, and renewable energy.* The institutional hallucinations in the medical, financial, and societal systems.* Why AI is probably only 1% into the development curve and the massive increase in capability that is coming in the next three years.* How AI could lead to a small business boom that accelerates the timeline from an idea to execution to growing to scale.* The shift towards distributed AI capability and why he’s watching Apple specifically.* The bottlenecks in the AI supply chain and how it could put the brakes on the AI rollout at certain times.* Book Recommendation: The Life Divine by Sri Aurobindo. Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe