Leak: ‘GPT-5 exhibits diminishing returns’, Sam Altman: ‘lol’

The last few days have seen two narratives emerge. One, derived from yesterday’s OpenAI leak in TheInformation, that GPT-5/Orion is a disappointment, and less of a leap than GPT-3 to GPT-4. The second comes from a series of 4 clips (shown in this video) from Sam Altman, regarding the ‘clear path’ to AGI. Let’s go beyond the headlines (and through papers like Frontier Math) to get closer to the ground truth…  Plus Universal-2, Sora comments, Claude 3.5 Haiku SimpleBench update, and a great new AI video.Assembly AI Speech to Text: https://www.assemblyai.com/?utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=influencer&utm_campaign=ai_explained  00:39 – Bear Case, TheInformation Leak04:01 – Bull Case, Sam Altman06:20 – FrontierMath11:29 – o1 Paradigm13:11 – Text to Video Greatness and Universal-2  TheInformation Leak: https://www.theinformation.com/articles/openai-shifts-strategy-as-rate-of-gpt-ai-improvements-slows?rc=sy0ihqNoam Brown Replies: https://x.com/polynoamial/status/1855453104394637444Sam Altman Y-Combinator Interview: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xXCBz_8hM9w&t=1556sAltman Reply: https://x.com/sama/status/1855100359511097828https://simple-bench.com/FrontierMath Paper: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2411.04872Frontier Math Blog Post: https://epochai.org/frontiermathTao: https://x.com/EpochAIResearch/status/1854996368814936250MMLU Are We Done (cites me!): https://arxiv.org/pdf/2406.04127Universal-2 https://www.assemblyai.com/research/universal-2Noam Brown ‘We don’t know’: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gr_eYXdHFisAnthropic Founder Response: https://x.com/jackclarkSF/status/1855485569998217231Sora (Runway Comment): https://x.com/c_valenzuelab/status/1855026417354129455Sora New Vid: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_iETa2KDRuwDarri3D Video: https://www.reddit.com/r/ChatGPT/comments/1gn0n3z/can_you/