Lending Data Reveals What Banks Don't Want You to Know | Property Market Analysis

New lending figures show investor activity down 8.6% and first home buyers still falling, and yet the more surprising story is where the price falls are actually landing: the most expensive suburbs, not the affordable ones. Join the PropStac Waitlist 👉: https://follio.com.au/propstac-waitlist/?utm_source=ep&utm_medium=92&utm_campaign=propstac Start you investment journery 👉: https://follio.com.au/contact-us/?utm_source=ep&utm_medium=92&utm_campaign=contact_us Three major data sets landed on the same day, and Reece Beddall and Lachlan Delahunty break all three down live. They start with the ABS lending figures to June, why the post-budget drop is smaller than expected but only captures half a month of the fallout, and why the next quarter will likely be far more significant. Lachlan also explains why banks losing volume could make debt easier to access over the next six to twelve months. From there they turn to the migration data, where permanent arrivals rose while short-term arrivals fell, and what a shift toward skilled migration means for housing and the economy. Then into the Cotality figures: how far each capital would fall in a downturn scenario, why Melbourne may be closer to its floor than any other market, and why the prestige end is taking a far bigger hit than the affordable end. They close on investor share by state, including Victoria at 41% and Tasmania at a striking 73%, and the case building around Melbourne heading into the Victorian election. What we cover: ✅ ABS lending data: investor activity down 8.6% and why the next quarter will be worse ✅ The RBA hold, easing US inflation, and the odds of one more rate rise this year ✅ Why banks losing market share could make borrowing easier soon ✅ Migration data: permanent arrivals up 7.8% while short-term arrivals fall ✅ Cotality peak prices and how far each capital would fall in a 20% downturn ✅ Why Melbourne may be near its floor and set to rebound fastest ✅ The two-speed economy across Adelaide, Brisbane and Perth ✅ Why prestige suburbs are falling four to five times faster than affordable ones ✅ Investor share by state: Victoria at 41% and Tasmania at 73% ✅ The Melbourne outlook heading into the Victorian election Timestamps: 00:00 Intro: three data releases in one day 01:02 ABS lending data: investor activity down 8.6% 03:40 The RBA hold, US inflation and the rate outlook 06:36 Migration data: permanent arrivals up, short-term down 09:48 Cotality: peak prices and the downturn scenarios 11:21 Why Melbourne may be near its floor 14:17 The two-speed economy: Adelaide, Brisbane, Perth 16:40 Why the prestige markets are falling fastest 21:18 Investor share by state: Victoria 41%, Tasmania 73% 22:12 The Melbourne outlook and the Victorian election About The Follio Property Podcast Each week, Reece Beddall and Lachlan Delahunty break down the biggest conversations shaping Australian property. From market cycles to debt, strategy, data, and real-world insights — we make property simple, honest, and practical. 📍 Visit Our Website: https://follio.com.au/ 📩 Contact Us: [email protected] 📲 Follow Us on Social: Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/folliopropertypod/ TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@folliopropertypod Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/4Akt4N53zsb4ldzFNlTwad?si=AFEgYOAiSh2QGbK8AfFLyw Lachlan Delahunty: https://www.linkedin.com/in/lachlandelahunty/ Reece Beddall: https://www.linkedin.com/in/reece-beddall-294557b3/ Executive Producer: Jonathan Fernandes https://www.linkedin.com/in/jonathan-fernandes-a75a991b2/ Disclaimer: This is for entertainment purposes - not financial advice. Speak to a qualified professional before making any financial or property decisions Key Themes: Australian property market update 2026 | abs lending data | investor lending Australia | migration data Australia | Cotality property data | Melbourne property market | prestige property market | two speed property market | Tasmania investor share | Follio property podcast #AustralianProperty #PropertyMarketUpdate #PropertyInvesting #ABSData #InvestorLending #FirstHomeBuyers #Migration #CotalityData #MelbourneProperty #SydneyProperty #PrestigeProperty #TwoSpeedMarket #RBA #InterestRates #FollioPropertyPodcast