Lime’s S-1 Breakdown: The $1.8B Scooter IPO

In this episode of Run the Numbers, CJ breaks down Lime’s S-1 as the scooter company heads toward the public markets. He gets into the $1.8B valuation, Wayne Ting’s turnaround playbook, Lime’s unit economics, the post-Covid recovery, and the debt wall that may be forcing the IPO window open.—SPONSORS:SpendHound cuts your SaaS and AI spend by up to 30% using real pricing benchmarks across 10,000 vendors, so you always know what fair pricing looks like before your next renewal. Rated #1 on G2 in SaaS spend management, it's free forever for teams up to 1,000 employees. Sign up by June 12th and get $500 just for getting started. Go to https://www.spendhound.com/cjBrex is an intelligent finance platform with AI-powered agents that capture expenses automatically, enforce policy before the spend happens, and close your books in minutes instead of weeks. 35,000+ companies like OpenAI, Coinbase, Anthropic, and DoorDash already run on Brex. It's time to get Brex AF. Learn more at https://www.brex.com/metricsAleph is a modern FP&A platform built for teams that want more than another planning tool. By connecting your ERP, CRM, and other systems into one trusted data layer with AI workflows, Aleph helps you move faster with real-time insights. Get a personalized demo at https://www.getaleph.com/runRightRev is an automated revenue recognition platform that lets your product team ship new pricing without asking finance for permission, and your sales team close deals without creating downstream chaos. Check out their free tool at calculator.rightrev.com It scores your rev rec process, shows what's exposing you to risk, and tells you exactly where to focus before it bites you in the rear end. Check it out at https://calculator.rightrev.comRillet is an AI-native ERP built for modern finance teams that want to replace NetSuite and close faster. With revenue recognition, close management, multi-entity support, and native Stripe and Salesforce integrations, Rillet helps scaling companies run their finance stack in one place. Hundreds of teams, including Windsurf and Mercor, use Rillet to make the zero-day close real. Book a demo at https://www.rillet.com/cjEY has been part of Silicon Valley since it was just a valley, helping the most successful names in tech go from startup to exit to megacap. With teams across strategy, tax, audit, and transactions, EY helps you get your financials right early, long before your investors start asking for it. You build the next big thing, and EY will help you build it right. Learn more at https://www.ey.com/techstartups—LINKS: Mostly Talent: https://mostlymetrics.typeform.com/to/cLTxtAsNCJ: https://www.linkedin.com/in/cj-gustafson-13140948/Mostly metrics: https://www.mostlymetrics.com—RELATED EPISODES:SpaceX S1 Breakdownhttps://youtu.be/AARjbTO8FKo—TIMESTAMPS:0:00 Intro1:48 What Lime does2:47 Phoenix rising from the ashes3:53 Revenue: $887M, 29% growth6:38 Gross margin and the depreciation trick7:53 Adjusted EBITDA: $218M, up 42%8:27 Why the net loss got bigger9:54 Sponsors — SpendHound | Brex | Aleph13:08 Revenue per vehicle per day13:42 Marketing: only 2% of revenue14:01 Subscription mix: 28% and rising14:25 The debt: $821M but most converts15:37 The turnaround story16:42 What Wayne found taking over17:31 The three numbers he locked in on18:05 The warehouse overhaul19:31 Sponsors — RightRev | Rillet | EY22:33 The debt deep dive23:20 Why the net loss widened24:27 Post-IPO: nearly debt free25:07 Why more scooters make each scooter worth more28:43 How a scooter pays for itself30:43 The swappable battery32:39 Is this a real moat?34:14 Red flag 1: going concern35:11 Red flag 2: depreciation change before IPO36:11 Red flag 3: permits can disappear36:32 Red flag 4: Uber is everything37:24 Red flag 5: vehicles catch fire37:56 Valuation: under 2x revenue39:55 Comps: between Lyft and Uber40:55 Bull vs. bear41:52 Legal name is Neutron Holdings42:47 Credits