Lines in the sand: Russia, Central Asia and the politics of sovereignty

In this week’s episode of the CAPS Unlock podcast, we unpack a string of developments that reveal the shifting geopolitics of sovereignty, identity and migration in Central Asia.We begin with an eyebrow-raising rebuke from Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, directed at Kazakhstan’s President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev. In a recent interview, Lavrov questioned Tokayev’s position on territorial integrity, a principle the Kazakh leader has consistently endorsed. He most notably reiterated this stance during the 2022 St Petersburg Economic Forum, while sitting just a few feet from Russian President Vladimir Putin. This episode examines Lavrov’s remarks and considers what may have prompted them. One theory is that he was seeking to exploit tensions with Turkey over Northern Cyprus, an issue that indirectly touches on concerns shared by several Central Asian states.In the second half of the episode, we turn to a disturbing case of police brutality against Kyrgyz migrants in Moscow. A recent raid on a bathhouse saw dozens of men assaulted, humiliated and allegedly tortured. The incident reflects a wider trend of rising hostility towards Central Asian migrants in Russia, particularly in the wake of a terrorist attack near Moscow in March 2024. We discuss recent changes to Russia’s migration laws, the political motivations behind the crackdown, and why, despite worsening conditions, many Central Asians continue to travel to Russia for work.This episode also features an interview with economist Kanat Tilekeyev, a scholar at the University of Central Asia, who shares insights from his latest research on Kyrgyzstan’s evolving role in regional trade.Useful links:* Lavrov’s Kommersant interview: https://vkvideo.ru/video-23482909_456261207?ref_domain=kommersant.ru* CAPS Unlock analytical note by Kanat Tilekeyev: https://capsunlock.org/publications/kyrgyzstans-trade-with-central-asian-countries-barriers-and-opportunities/* Article by Tilekeyev on Kyrgyzstan’s trade agenda: https://capsunlock.org/kyrgyzstans-re-export-model-a-blessing-and-a-curse/ Get full access to Havli - A Central Asia Substack at havli.substack.com/subscribe