Long-Term Uptrend. Short-Term Warning Signs | Katie Stockton on What Charts Say About What's Next

In this episode of Excess Returns, Katie Stockton of Fairlead Strategies joins Matt Zeigler and Justin Carbonneau to walk through her technical outlook for markets as we head into 2026. The conversation focuses on trend analysis, momentum, volatility, and risk management across U.S. equities, sectors, international markets, and alternative assets. Rather than making predictions, Katie explains how she reacts to price, confirms signals, and uses a disciplined technical process to identify opportunities and manage downside risk in changing market environments.Main topics coveredMarket trend outlook for U.S. equities heading into 2026Why long-term trends remain constructive despite rising short-term risksHow to think about volatility, consolidation, and corrective phasesWhat loss of momentum in late 2025 signals for near-term positioningHow to use triangle formations, support, and resistance levelsUnderstanding DeMark indicators, MACD, and stochastic signalsLeadership shifts within large-cap technology and the Mag 7Growth versus value dynamics across market capsSmall caps, market breadth, and participation signalsSector rotation insights including technology, healthcare, financials, energy, utilities, and real estateHow sentiment indicators like fear and greed fit into a broader processGold, silver, and precious metals trends and volatilityBitcoin and crypto from a technical perspectiveThe U.S. dollar, yields, and global market implicationsInternational and emerging market opportunitiesHow the Fairlead Tactical Sector ETF is constructed and used in portfoliosWhere a tactical, risk-managed strategy can fit within asset allocationTimestamps00:00 Market setup and trend perspective for 202601:25 Long-term uptrend versus short-term risk04:16 Momentum loss and near-term caution06:00 Nasdaq 100 triangle and volatility setup07:45 Ichimoku clouds and trend confirmation11:01 Using consolidation and support levels13:05 Tech leadership and relative strength shifts18:30 Small caps, breadth, and market participation21:01 Growth versus value across market caps23:00 Market breadth and advance-decline signals24:13 Sentiment, fear and greed, and retests30:00 Breakouts, catalysts, and confirmation32:00 Sector rotation overview35:00 Energy, real estate, and rate-sensitive sectors39:10 Fairlead Tactical Sector ETF strategy45:00 International and emerging markets47:36 Gold, silver, and precious metals51:04 U.S. dollar and currency trends54:00 Bitcoin and crypto technical outlook57:12 Key indicators to watch going forward59:07 Long-term takeaways for investors