Macro Matters: BI’s Adelberg on Housing, MBS and Prepay Risk

Housing affordability, mortgage-market modernization and changing refinance behavior are reshaping the outlook for mortgage-backed securities. Erica Adelberg, Bloomberg Intelligence MBS strategist, joins Ira Jersey, BI chief US interest-rate strategist, on this edition of the FICC Focus podcast, Macro Matters. Adelberg discusses how new credit-score models and lender choice could expand mortgage access while also complicating prepayment and credit analysis for MBS investors. The two also examine how technology and artificial intelligence are changing mortgage origination and servicing, why Rocket Mortgage’s growing servicing footprint could accelerate refinancing activity and how recent housing legislation could affect supply and financing at the margin. They also discuss curve flattening, the resurgence of hybrid ARMs, relative value across agency and non-agency mortgage products and why mortgage spreads remain highly sensitive to volatility even as all-in yields look attractive.