Macro Matters: NISA Investments’ Douglass on Fed, Fiscal Outlook

Stephen Douglass, chief economist and a member of NISA Investment Advisors’ global investment committee, explains why he still sees the US economy as broadly consistent with a soft-landing path once the current oil shock fades, even though the war has complicated the timing of Fed rate cuts. He joined Ira Jersey, Bloomberg Intelligence’s chief US interest-rate strategist on this edition of Macro Matters. The two discuss Kevin Warsh’s arrival as Fed chair, why Douglass expects more incremental than revolutionary change at the central bank and why he thinks any attempt to pair balance-sheet reduction with lower policy rates would be difficult to execute. They also examine NISA’s preference for front-end Treasury steepeners over tight credit spreads, the risks posed by higher oil prices, the warning signs coming from the UK gilt market and why the Treasury Department is likely to keep leaning on bill issuance rather than meaningfully increasing coupon supply.