Macro Matters: US Economic Outlook With Natixis’ Hodge

Cooling inflation and a softer labor market are giving the Federal Reserve more room to remain patient, even as investors debate whether Kevin Warsh’s Fed could still deliver another rate increase. Chris Hodge, chief economist at Natixis, joins Bloomberg Intelligence interest rate strategists Ira Jersey and Will Hoffman to discuss this and more on this Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus podcast. Hodge explains why recent CPI and PPI data reinforce his view that disinflation remains intact, with tariff effects largely having passed through, housing pressures moderating and wage growth consistent with inflation moving closer to the Fed’s target. The group discusses why Natixis expects the Fed to remain on an extended hold, how recent weakness in the labor market could increase policymakers’ tolerance for above-target inflation and what changes may emerge from Warsh’s reviews of the central bank’s inflation framework and data. They also examine the housing outlook, the approaching midterm elections and why divided government may constrain major fiscal legislation without materially changing the longer-term US deficit trajectory. The Macro Matters podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series.