Macro Recap : Podcast

US 10y : 3.91% (-2 bps)Gold : 2041 (-1%)DXY : 102.47 (+0.35%)Oil : 72.80 (+3.35%)S&P Futures : 4,755 (-0.7%)Good Afternoon all,It’s been a jittery start to the new year for risk assets with all major Equity Indexes in the US down between 2 and 4%. Weakness in tech stocks have been notable but we also take particular note of the declines in small caps and Consumer Discretionary stocks within the main S&P 500 cash index. US Ism Manufacturing data came in as expected, still in contraction mode at 47.4. The prices subcomponent of the survey came in weaker than expected however at 45.2. We also were awarded a speech from the Fed’s Tom Barkin and got details of the FOMC meeting that was held back in December. Both the speech and the FOMC minutes highlight some uncertainty around the potential rate path for 2024 while the market awaits confirmation that inflation has indeed safely returned to target. In our minds, this uncertainty has been all but alleviated when one takes a deeper look at the rate of goods deflation within PCE measures but markets perhaps over positioned for an easier Fed have pared back risk to start the new year.There has been some energy market volatility as well with front crude futures contracts trading down to $70.00 a barrel before stabilizing today at $73.00. Chinese import quota announcements for 2024 along with continued unrest in the red sea should keep prices overall supported. We do note however that a close below $65.00 a barrel would be bearish from a technical perspective.Our focus shifts now to Oil Inventories due out tomorrow and ADP jobs data ahead of Non Farm Payrolls on Friday.As always, we shall keep you posted.DisclaimerThe information provided in this post is for general use only and does not constitute a solicitation for investment. It should not be construed as professional financial advice. Seek independent professional consultation before making an investment decision.   This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit puritymacro.substack.com