Mag Seven Margin Crunch | Cameron Dawson on Tariffs, Recession Risk and the Defensive Investing Trap

Are we heading toward a recession—or just stuck in macroeconomic purgatory? In this episode of Excess Returns, Dave Nadig and Matt Zeigler sit down with Cameron Dawson, CIO of NewEdge Wealth, to explore the uncertain territory between headline-driven panic and hard data reality. From the implications of sweeping tariffs to the capital account war no one's talking about,Cameron offers one of the sharpest macro takes we've heard. We cover where the market might go next, how investors should respond to volatility, and what signals to trust in a confusing environment.Topics Covered:Why we’re in a “no man’s land” between tariffs and hard dataThe potential economic fallout of 145% tariffs on ChinaCapital account war: Why treasury demand may be fadingWhat the collapse in shipping and trucking data tells usHow margin compression could trigger job cutsThe case for value over growth after a Mag 7 blow-offUsing technicals, sentiment, and positioning to spot turning pointsWhy quality stocks may beat traditional defensivesWhether hedging is worth it vs. holding T-billsPractical strategies for rebalancing through market chaos