Making Accurate Predictions and Uncertainty

Namaste, Welcome to SAM-VAD (Together In Conversation). Last week, I shared an excerpt titled – ‘Conversations and Community’ from the book titled ‘The Argument Culture’ by Deborah Tannen, a distinguished university professor in the Linguistics Department at Georgetown University and author of many books and articles about how the language of everyday conversation affects relationships. In this episode we drew attention to the fact that in conversation we form the interpersonal ties that bind individuals together in personal relationships; in public discourse, we form similar ties on a large scale, binding individuals into a community. Community norms and pressure exercise a restraint on the expression of hostility and destruction. Now, SAM-VAD (Together In Conversation) to the ones paying heed, is where we try to draw your attention to things that matter and the importance of your attention, because, ‘Our life’s experience would ultimately amount to whatever we had paid attention to’. Attention: is as fundamental as food; and we go blundering about, seeking ways to assuage the craving, instead of learning how to provide ourselves with what we need, sensibly and calmly. Once our attention is drawn to the mechanism of why and what we give attention to, it is as if a veil has been stripped off and we become freer in our action and choices. And that is our endavour. This week I bring to your attention an excerpt titled – ‘Making Accurate Predictions and Uncertainty’ from a blog-post titled ‘Can We Make More Accurate Predictions in Economics?’ Ayubkhon Azamov writer, translator and educator with a background in economics. In this post he points out that if we accept uncertainty as part of the game and combine forecasting with adaptability, critical thinking, and stress testing, then forecasting ceases to be about fortune-telling and instead becomes a tool for preparing for an uncertain future, with all its surprises. Making Accurate Predictions and Uncertainty From the first farmers who watched the skies for rain to modern analysts armed with complex macro models, humanity has always sought to glimpse the future. Yet, history has shown that even the smartest formulas can’t save us from errors, even though we’d like to think they can. Question the assumptions, look at the ranges, compare the sources, and always have an alternate plan. Then even the most imperfect forecasts will cease to be a source of frustration and will instead become a resource for resilient decision-making: whether in your personal budget, corporate strategy, or public policy. After all, our true strength lies not in flawlessly guessing tomorrow, but in building systems capable of withstanding whatever tomorrow brings. Getting to the truth of what lies ahead is approached neither with blind faith nor with total skepticism, but with a reasonable balance. Excerpt from ‘Can We Make More Accurate Predictions in Economics?’ Ayubkhon Azamov. I am sure that you will enjoy reading this post and find it thought provoking too; to read you can click on the following link: https://humanjourney.us/blog/can-we-make-more-accurate-predictions-in-economics Enjoy reading it with your family, friends and near and dear one’s. Namaste!