Mark Hamrick: The hallmarks of a recession aren't here ... yet

Mark Hamrick, chief economic analyst at The Hamrick Brief, says that the current affordability crisis has the potential to trigger a recession, if it gets to where there's a slowdown in spending that spills over to impact employment levels. That said, Hamrick says current conditions aren't yet deserving of the label of "economic crisis," even if it feels that way for some individuals and households, effectively the bottom portion of the k-shaped recovery. Still, Hamrick says the remarkable facet of the U.S. economy is that it has been able to avoid recession for this long. Vijay Marolia, chief investment officer at Regal Point Capital, says "Mr. Market is a manic depressive," and is showing those tendencies by getting so excited by positive guidance and potential that the reaction to strong earnings reports has been horrible stock action. He expects that to potentially continue this week, when the focus of earnings season shifts to A.I.-driven companies like Alphabet, Intel and Tesla. Marolia says the market's earnings swings have contributed to an ongoing downturn for tech stocks, though he believes it's more of a buying opportunity than the start of a correction. Plus, with June's inflation reading being partly positive (better than May) mixed with negative (worse than when conflict started with Iran), "Captain Inflation" gives his take on how to best read and cope with the numbers. David Trainer, founder and president at New Constructs, says that while fans may believe Jersey Mike's is "a sub above," the company's initial public offering is a deal from below. While the IPO's launch date hasn't been determined, Trainer says the expected $12 billion valuation is at least double what he thinks the numbers justify, and that the deal — particularly at that level — mostly benefits the private-equity firm that took control of Jersey Mike's in 2025.