Market Pulse — Thursday: Production, Hedging, Transaction Data

Welcome to Gold Dragon Daily, an AI-powered podcast by Gold Dragon Investments, helping you win the game of passive investing. For more information, visit GotTheGold.com. I'm your host, Justin 2.0. This is Market Pulse — Thursday's numbers. Equities: • Mixed Wednesday • Dow jumped 0.7% to fresh record high, closing at 48,255 • S&P 500 up marginally to 6,851, adding 0.05% • Nasdaq slipped 0.3% to 23,406 on continued tech rotation • Healthcare and industrials leading gains • Tech sector underperforming as investors rotate into value and defensive sectors • Market watching Fed rate trajectory and year-end positioning Oil: • WTI at $58.43, down 3.4% Wednesday • Brent at $62.58, down 3.2% • Both under pressure on oversupply concerns • OPEC projecting global supply will align with demand in 2026 due to increased OPEC+ production • OPEC reporting supply exceeded demand by 500,000 barrels per day in Q3 • IEA warning of increasingly unbalanced oil market with rising global inventories and growing surplus expected • U.S. crude inventories increased 1.3 million barrels last week • EIA projecting U.S. crude output averaging 13.59 million barrels per day in 2025, 13.58 million in 2026 • Global supply projected at 105.98 million barrels per day in 2025, 107.37 million in 2026 • Global consumption expected 104.14 million barrels per day in 2025, 105.20 million in 2026 • Market pricing in persistent oversupply through 2026 Gas: • Henry Hub at $4.49 per MMBtu, down 0.91% Wednesday • Up 48% month-over-month, up 61% year-over-year • Colder conditions in early December expected to boost heating demand • Storage levels tightening heading into winter • LNG export activity supporting prices • December contract reflecting seasonal premium Production: • Permian Basin output steady around 6.6 million barrels per day • Operators maintaining discipline with WTI near $58 • Hedging activity elevated for 2025 and 2026 • SM Energy hedged 50% of Q4 2025 production at $63 to $69 per barrel • Matador Resources hedged 70,000 barrels per day second half 2025 with price floor at $52, ceiling at $77 • EON Resources hedged 70% of oil production at $70 to $70.50 per barrel • Oversupply conditions projected to persist into 2025, potentially reaching 2 million barrels per day • Drilling activity slowing on price pressure Real Estate: • Cap rates stabilizing Q4 • Industrial at 6.3%, up 20 basis points year-over-year • Investor demand for high-quality logistics assets remains strong • Quarterly warehouse sales volumes ranging $15 billion to $25 billion • CMBS delinquency rates low at 0.6% • Multifamily at 5.63%, highest in eight years • Apartment transactions surged Q3: $43.8 billion in deals, up 13% year-over-year • Average price per unit at $227,167 • Vacancy rate at 6.5% • Office bifurcation continues: Class A at 7.8%, distressed assets at significant discounts • Fed expected to stabilize rates between 3.5% and 4.0% by year-end • Transaction volumes improving modestly • Construction starts down significantly Credit: • Markets resilient • SOAFER stable • Investment-grade spreads stable • High-yield spreads widened modestly, ending October 14 basis points wider at 294 • Yields for high-yield market increased 9 basis points to 6.82% • U.S. high-yield market gained 0.20% in October, year-to-date returns at 7.27% • Credit investors proving resilient to political uncertainty • Continued economic growth expected to support strong corporate earnings and low defaults heading into 2026 • Corporate refinancing activity strong Bottom Line: Dow hit record 48,255, S&P up 0.05%, Nasdaq down 0.3% on tech rotation. Oil down 3.4% on oversupply fears, WTI at $58, Brent at $63. OPEC and IEA projecting persistent surplus through 2026. Gas at $4.49, up 61% year-over-year on winter demand. Permian steady, operators hedging aggressively at $52 to $70 floors. Real estate stabilizing, industrial at 6.3%, multifamily at 5.63%. Credit markets resilient, high-yield spreads at 294. Target sub-$50 breakevens, hedge floors above $75. Industrial caps sub-5.7%, senior secured credit SOAFER plus 650, LTV under 65%. Visit GotTheGold.com. Stay sharp.