Market Storylines: Awaiting Supreme Court Ruling on Tariffs + Geopolitical Tensions at the Forefront

Michael Reinking, NYSE Senior Market Strategist, kicks off 2026 with a look back and ahead. After a volatile Q1, the S&P 500 closed 2025 up 16.4%, marking a third straight year of double-digit gains driven by AI. Fed easing and rotation into small and midcaps shaped Q4, raising questions about whether broadening continues. Geopolitical headlines, including U.S. action in Venezuela, barely rattled markets as oil held steady. With indices near record highs and key data and earnings season ahead, investors enter the new year with cautious optimism.