Market Update & Portfolio Strategy – July 2025 Edition

In this blog post, I’m breaking down the latest market news, geopolitical shifts, economic data, and my updated portfolio strategy including high-conviction stocks like Visa, Apple, AMD, Mastercard, and more. Plus, I’ll share key earnings takeaways and how I’m trading oil and bonds right now.📰 Market RecapThe S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones all hit new all-time highs as geopolitical tensions eased and trade optimism resurged. Major catalysts include:* Ceasefire between Iran & Israel* Reports of potential trade deals with China and India* Dovish Fed comments and high expectations of rate cuts* Explosive performance in AI and tech sectors (e.g. Nvidia, Oracle)📊 Index Weekly Performance:* S&P 500: +3.4%* Nasdaq: +4.25%* Dow Jones: +3.8%🛢️ Oil Trade BreakdownTensions in the Middle East initially drove oil prices higher, but once de-escalation occurred, WTI crude dropped 13% to ~$65/barrel.💼 My Trade:* Bought a short on WTI on Monday (sold shortly after)* Target buy range: $55–$60/barrel* Preferred oil stock: Exxon Mobil (XOM) – decent dividend but still waiting for better technicals💰 Economic Data & Fed Outlook* Core PCE inflation rose slightly* Consumer inflation expectations dropped* Durable goods orders surged (especially aircraft)* Fed rate cut probability: 92% chance by September📉 Rate cuts would boost borrowing and market momentum.📊 Earnings & Stock Picks✅ Nike (NKE)* Popped +20% on solid earnings* MACD shows buy signal, RSI overbought* Exiting this small position in my portfolio🆕 Circle IPO* Small starter position: 0.85% of my portfolio* Down ~18%* Watching for a potential re-entry after summer correction💳 Mastercard (MA) & Visa (V)* Re-entered Visa after its June breakout* Bought 7 shares of MA at $468* Bullish on both companies for the long term📈 Portfolio HighlightsStockPosition %NotesLong-Term Bonds12%Waiting for rate cuts; yield ~4.31%Apple (AAPL)11.5%Expecting late-year rallyAMD9.3%Down currently, strong long-term playASML–Monopoly in lithography chipsGoogle (GOOG)–Bullish on AI + Gemini rolloutNovo Nordisk–Still holding; litigation ongoingUnitedHealth–Down but potential 30%+ annual returnBerkshire Hathaway–Long-term conviction buy🧪 Watchlist* Intel – Potential acquisition target* Realty Income (O) – Oversold, watching for bounce* Truist Financial (TFC) – Will exit on RSI overbought This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit norbertbm.substack.com/subscribe