Markets Happy Hour Podcast January 16, 2025 - Going All In

With 4 days to go until inauguration markets have been vacillating between enthusiasm and trepidation about the expectations for the incoming Trump administration 2.0. We know that policy change on the horizon will be abundant, and much of that is already being factored in, with companies such as Meta, McDonalds and Walmart preemptively abandoning DEI programs such as diverse slate hiring and even DEI training, and disbandment of asset owner alliances relating to Net Zero commitments. There has been more volatility in fixed income markets as we ask whether the stock market is starting to heed this volatility, and clearly incoming treasury secretary Scott Bessent is not in favor of removing tax cuts, so the governments potential actions will be limited when it comes to fiscal flexibility. An Israel-Hamas ceasefire bodes well for that region's stability, while the review of the ban on TikTok in the US reveals the deep insecurities and suspicion around data usage, secrecy and cybersecurity. Lots of newsflow as we embark upon regime change in the US as it continues to demonstrate its exceptionalism particularly with respect to the economic outlook.