Markets Happy Hour Podcast - October 17, 2025 Prizes and Prices

In this week's Markets Happy Hour Podcast we dig through some "anecdata" to see what is driving global markets through white knuckle moments and back again. We are forced to rely on "anecdata" due to the ongoing shortage of data due to the US government shutdown, so are missing official inflation figures and jobs data. Anecdotally, however, CEOs (Walmart in particular) are reporting that consumers remain resilient (notable given that the Walmart consumers will not be the highest earners) and we can also see firm data that oil prices are hovering close to 5 year lows, which will drive lower prices at the pump. While an easing in Middle East hostilities was in the news this week this may more be a sign of growing US inventories that are keeping a lid on prices. There remains actual data around the world outside the US and UK inflation data showed a stickiness at a challenging 3.8% level, although there some positive soundings out of the UK as the Chancellor committed to cut spending and raise taxes, and market seemed to indicate their approval by buying long dated UK gilts, which saw their largest drop in yields since April. US stock markets have experienced a rocky week, from the "white knuckle moment" of the surprise tariff news regarding China last weekend, to the emergence of worries around regional banks - in particular Zions Bank and Western Alliance which spooked investors with a sense of "deja vu" from early 2023, when other regional banks created worries. The entire financial sector suffered in this case, as the news came close to the news of the credit issues around First Brands and Tricolor, which Jamie Dimon described as the "cockroach" that could well signify other sources of trouble around. We conclude the podcast with some interesting - lateral thinking around the actual effect of AI on GDP and jobs, some positive suggestion re. the lowest quintile of wage earners and analyze what the Nobel Prize in Economics for 2025 can teach us about growth and innovation. Finally we look at the unstoppable march of gold (up 65% ytd) as well as the correlation that Bitcoin is showing to China/US trade relations, which is an interesting relationship to unpack with time.