Markets Happy Hour Podcast - With Special Guest Euan Munro - July 17, 2025; The Waiting Game

In today's Markets Happy Hour Podcast we are delighted to be joined by Euan Munro, former CEO of Newton Asset Management and a well-known commentator on market conditions and multi-asset investing. We start by reflecting on the slightly higher than expected inflation numbers in the US, ask "Will he stay or will he go?" with respect to the Fed Chairman, and analyze how markets have been mulling over this essential question - as expressed by the 30 year bond yield, the S&P and the US dollar. The trade narrative is continuing to evolve as even the 10% tariff has yielded meaningful receipts so far and little impact has been seen on inflation. However Euan argues that it remains far too early to say how tariffs will ultimately affect inflation. Looking around the world we look at diverging interest rate shapes and sizes (Table Mountain v. the Matterhorn), equity market performance and a strange convergence that continues between the worlds of EM and DM debt. We conclude by comparing the behavior of gold and Bitcoin and asking whether anything is in fact doing the job we expect of it, and whether we are under-appreciating income in particular - neither of which Gold or Bitcoin generate. The Markets Happy Hour Podcast is a weekly check-in on market conditions and what it means for investment portfolios. Aoifinn Devitt is an advisor to family offices and institutions around investing for a richer future. She believes that understanding the market context in which we operate is a key part of navigating that future with confidence and agency.