Markets, Multipolarity, and the Next Cycle

For more than a decade, investors have been rewarded for a simple strategy: buy U.S. stocks, own big technology companies, and trust that American exceptionalism would continue to drive markets higher. But what if that playbook is beginning to change? In this episode of the Global Thinking Podcast, Rob Duncan sits down with Sébastien Mc Mahon, Chief Economist at iA Financial Group, to discuss the forces reshaping the global investment landscape. From geopolitical tensions and energy markets to AI-driven productivity gains and the resurgence of international equities, they explore why the next phase of the market cycle may look very different from the last. Rob and Seb discuss: Why markets continue to climb despite geopolitical uncertainty Whether U.S. exceptionalism is beginning to fade The growing case for international diversification Canada's productivity challenge and economic outlook AI, capital spending, and the future of global growth The biggest mistakes investors are making today As investors grapple with shifting narratives, one thing is becoming increasingly clear: the world is becoming more multipolar, and portfolios may need to evolve alongside it. Episode Timestamps 00:00 Introduction and market backdrop 02:15 What's the biggest thing markets are misunderstanding? 05:10 Iran, geopolitics, and the real impact of oil shocks 08:45 Why this cycle looks different from the 1970s 11:20 Is U.S. exceptionalism starting to fade? 15:00 International markets and the global rotation trade 18:30 AI, productivity, and the next capex cycle 22:15 Canada's productivity challenge 26:30 Portfolio implications for investors 29:00 Biggest mistakes investors are making today 31:00 Closing thoughts and outlook Resources Why Nations Fail by Darren Asimoglu - https://www.amazon.com/Why-Nations-Fail-Institutions-Rule/dp/0307719227 Power and Progress by Darren Asimoglu - https://www.amazon.com/Power-Progress-Technology-History-Change/dp/XXXXXX Speaker Sebastien McMahon - https://www.linkedin.com/in/sebastien-mcmahon/ Disclosures: https://forstrong.com/disclosures/ Global Thinking Podcast Series - https://forstrong.com/podcast/ Global Thinking Insights - https://forstrong.com/insights/ Who is Forstrong Global - https://forstrong.com/who-we-are/ Ask Forstrong - https://forstrong.com/category/ask-forstrong/ Invest With Us - https://forstrong.com/invest-with-us/ Thank for you listening, please considering leaving a review and subscribing for future episodes. For any questions, comments or suggested topics please reach out to Rob Duncan, [email protected]