ME Outlook 2025: US-China Competition in the Middle East

Jonathan Fulton, a Non-Resident Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Middle East Programmes and the Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative, discusses how US-China competition in the Middle East could unfold in 2025. He explains that while China’s presence peaked in October 2023, driven by regional engagement and economic connections, it waned following the Gaza conflict, revealing the limits of Beijing’s political and security contributions. Fulton notes that the Gulf states perceive China primarily as a transactional partner, contrasting with their deeper, strategic alliance with the US. He also predicts that a new Trump presidency may not drastically alter this dynamic, but could affect US-Iran relations. Given their growing ties with Beijing, Fulton also identifies Egypt and Iran as crucial countries to monitor in 2025.