Meet the Press NOW — April 21

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Now I'm on Caliban Washington, where the next steps in US Peace talks with Iran are unclear with Vice President Vance's plan trip to Pakistan for in person talks now in a holding pattern and Pakistani mediators warning the ceasefire is set to expire before 8pm tonight as President Trump signals he's prepared to restart the war if there is no final deal. This hour, the President is set to hold an event at the White House with college athletes or he could provide an update on the war with Iran. If he does, we'll bring you those remarks. But for now, Vice President Vance and the rest of the negotiating team remain in Washington with Vance, special envoy Steve Wikoff and the President Sudden Law Jared Kushner all attending meetings at the White House today.

Iran's Foreign Ministry saying today that no final decision has been made on whether Iran will participate in those talks, accusing the US of inconsistent behavior and unacceptable actions. Mediators impact say they're trying to convince the Iranian leadership to come to the table. The standoff comes amid uncertainty as to when exactly the ceasefire formally expires, with Pakistan saying it laxes tonight by President Trump telling Bloomberg yesterday that it expires at some point tomorrow. In a post on social media this morning, President Trump accused Iran of violating the ceasefire numerous times and in an interview with CNBC today, he said he doesn't want to extend the ceasefire and he's prepared to resume strikes on Iran.

You're saying that you need at least a prospect for a signed deal today and tomorrow or else you would resume bombing Iran? Well, I expect to be bombing because I think That's a better attitude to go in with. But and we're ready to go. I mean, the military is raring to go.

I want to make a good deal. I'm not going to be rushed. I have all the time in the world. I want to make another video.

I want to make a great deal. It comes. The Trump administration is also escalating its enforcement operations at sea. Intersecting vessels it says are providing material support to Iran.

The Pentagon releasing this video of US Forces boarding a sanctioned tanker, this time in the Pacific. It's the second vessel US Troops have boarded in recent days. President Trump told CNBC the vessel had, quote, a gift from China for Iran amid growing uneasiness about Beijing's support for Tehran as the war drags on. Joining me now are NBC News senior White House correspondent Dave Gutierrez.

NBC News chief international correspondent Kir Simmons is in Islamabad and NBC News national security reporter Gordon Lubel. Thank you all here for being here. These very fast moving developments. But what do we know about how the vice president has been spending today as we wait to see if this trip is even still on?

Yeah, that's right, Monica. Look, this is a very fluid situation here at the White House. We have from that source familiar with the discussions that Jared Kushner, the president's son in law, as well as the special envoy Steve Woodcock were here at the White House meeting with the president along with Vice President Vance, whose trip is now in a holding pattern as far as we know. As you said, though, we are expecting potentially to hear from the president within the next few minutes.

We hold that event with NCAA athletes here at the White House. But it has been a very uncertain day as we've been hearing from Iranian officials, from the Pakistani mediators and for President Trump earlier this morning talking about the possibility of these negotiations. But as of now, Monica, this holding pattern, we find ourselves and waiting to hear what the final decision has been in order to find out whether the vice president is even making this trip to Islamabad. I get confusion there gave a confusion on some of these conflicting timelines on when the ceasefire actually expires.

We have clarity on when that deal ends. No, we've been asking White House officials really throughout the day to provide some of that clarity. The president has said that the deadline is tomorrow. Pakistani mediators, however, say it is Wednesday morning in Pakistan within a few hours here Eastern time.

So it is totally unclear when the ceasefire deadline would arrive. The president, though, as you said in your introduction, he has been saying that he is ready to resume bombing Iran if the Deal is, is not struck again though all that remains up in the air at the moment. And the president also said today that the boat that the US had seized yesterday did have this quote, gift from China on board. How's the administration reacting to that?

Especially when the president does have the high stakes meeting to China with the Chinese president in the coming weeks. Look, the White House officials have been saying for the last several days of the strip the summit with President Xi how we anticipate the is still alive. But yes, the president raising some questions this morning in an interview with the CNBC when he was describing the so called gift from China. Now there are a lot of questions about whether this could be some dual use equipment.

Perhaps at least that's what would be considered by Washington and what knowledge President Xi and China had in any of these, any of this equipment, whether the US Administration considers it weapons coming from China to Iran. Although President Xi, the president, President Trump has said has denied that he will send any weapons to China. But all this comes just weeks before the highly anticipated meeting. Unclear how this all plays out and again unclear whether we get to these peace talks which are scheduled, expected at least in Islamabad.

All of this we're in a holding pattern here at the White House, Dave, watching it all from the north one, thank you so much. I do now want to go to Kir. Who is there? Kiran?

That's the question right now. Do we think these talks are even going to take place where you are? We have no idea. Honestly we thought that they would be this week.

That's the indications that we were getting. And certainly the Pakistanis have been saying today that they have been in constant contact with the Iranians, persuading them, working to try to convince them to come here to Islamabad for these talks. We're in an extraordinary position where effectively the Trump administration is indicating pretty clearly that it would like to have the talks and the Iranian regime is indicating that frankly it may not. And in fact, just before we came on air, Monica, Iranian media said that for now and that I suppose is a, is a small opening of a door.

Still, the decision by the Iranian regime is final not to attend the talks on Wednesday. Now why is that? Well, the Iranians are accusing the US of contravening the ceasefire just the same as President Trump today accused Iran of contravening the ceasefire. I think the taking of that Iranian cargo ship near the Strait of Hormuz in the past few days had a real impact.

Even if President Trump now saying that there were supplies on it from the Chinese for The Iranians raising questions about that. And frankly, the simple fact is that there's just an enormous gulf in trust. The question now, of course, is, is either side as prepared to go back to war as they are saying they are? Yeah.

And the President had said that the bombs will start falling if the cease fire expires. But the question that we've been trying to discuss and find the answer to is that we don't know when that actually happens. What's your sense from the Pakistani side of things about when the ceasefire does actually end and why did they choose that time versus the time it seems the President has been talking about, which would be tomorrow evening? I don't know.

I mean, look, the Pakistanis said in their statement in the past few hours that the ceasefire runs out the early hours of the morning here, four in the morning here or thereabouts. Why they think that? I think it's to do with when President Trump announced the ceasefire two weeks ago. Of course, it's President Trump's ceasefire, so in a sense, it's for him to decide when it ends.

And it is, of course, the actor in all of this who has said that he doesn't want to extend the ceasefire. It's quite clear to me that a number of governments, including Pakistanis, have been trying to persuade President Trump to extend that cease fire. Of course, the trouble is what President Trump is trying to do is gain leverage over the Iranians by demonstrating that he is prepared to go back to war, that he is prepared to inflict more punishment on them. On the other hand, the Iranians believe that they survived all that and that they can survive again.

I guess, in a way, if it comes to that, this will be, again, a race, a dismal race between whether the Iranian economy or the world economy suffers most. And the President had said it was highly unlikely he could extend this deadline again, but maybe now he will. Kirsten, thank you so much for being there and bringing us that report from Islamabad. Gordon, I do want to turn to you now to talk a little bit more about this vessel that was boarded this time in the Pacific.

What more do we know about that incident? Right. So very little, honestly. You know, the US Forces boarded the ship.

You know, the chairman, direction of staff recently said, you know, this kind of search for any boats that's supporting Iran goes global. And as a perfect example of that, you know, I point out that the US Marines are still on the other boat that was boarded over the weekend. That's that in the administration. And so, you know, what they're finding obviously take some time and kind of figuring out what they will do now with these ships.

It sounds like there was a gift from China on this one, but we don't know much more about it. But I think these boardings, we could see a lot more of them as time unfolds. Let's talk more about that because we have seen these two in recent days. So does that indicate to you, do you think there will be more maritime interdictions?

This is something that the US Military is prepared to do, trains to do. But how many warnings they would. This is an easy signal send from the Trump administration to, to Iran into ships and ships kind of maybe seeking, you know, safe harbor, as it were, around the world. If they're supporting Iran, it's easy.

Operation in NASA's easy. But just to your point, US forces trained exactly this and I think there's no problem in them doing more of them. They have the forces, they have the wherewithal to do this. I think as I say, it's just an important message right now.

President keeps saying that the military is ready to go if he does decide he wants to resume dropping bombs, but talks a little bit about the specific threats that he's been making in recent days against the power plants and bridges specifically. So this ceasefire is off. Is the sense that that would be where he goes next, those military targets? I think that there's no question, of course this is all in the mind of President Trump and I think sometimes he even knows exactly what he's going to do in the next move.

But I think it's clear that if he decides, you know, these talks are over and he wants to resume strikes, that, that can happen anytime it happens tomorrow happen. So we don't know but certainly from the get go US Military forces in the region have been read any manner of strikes and I'm sure they're ready to, to go back out. And so those sites are those kind of potentially dual purpose sites. I think there's some legal debate about whether they are valid.

But yeah, quickly, thank you so much for your reporting. I do want to go back to Gabe Bederis because I understand that President Trump has just issued a message about exactly what we were discussing. Gabe, what is the latest book he tells us? Well, Monica, just for the past few moments, President Trump posting on social media that he is extending the ceasefire and but he will continue the blockade of Iranian ports.

And President writing at the request, at the request of Pakistani officials, we've been asked to hold our attacks on the country of Iran until such a time as their leaders and representatives can come up with a unified proposal. The President also saying that the government of Iran is seriously, seriously fractured. So Monica, this all comes after a day of rapid fire developments where Vice president was expected to le for Pakistan staying here in Washington, meeting with the President. There's been a series of meetings with Jared Kushner and with Steve throughout today.

And now we're hearing from the President of the United States that he's doing something that he said he did not want to do even earlier today, extending the ceasefire. Again, we are, as we read through this right now. Yeah. A little bit more about what you just said, which is that this is language he used that was identical to the last time that he extended the ceasefire, which was two weeks ago.

Prior to that, he had said it was highly unlikely that he would push the deadline back again than he did. Here we are again today where before this. That's the exact same thing. He said it was highly unlikely he would do it, but not impossible.

So talk a little bit more about that and also that issue of the blockade because that had been a really key sticking point, right, for the Iranian side of negotiations. Well, certainly. Look, and as you were just speaking about with Kira, you know, Iranian strict state media now saying that these negotiations are often part of the reason that they cite is this what they see as an act of piracy on the part of the United States with the US military forcing that blockade on raining ports, seizing that vessel on Sunday. But yes, you're right, I remember you were here at the White House.

You asked the President about this several weeks ago and he said it was highly likely he would extend a cease fire. He is now extending a ceasefire also just announcing it right now after a markets close. The markets close at 4pm and we're expecting to hear from the President within the next few minutes, potentially hear this unrelated event at the right House. Again, that breaking news just within the past few minutes.

The President announcing that his ceasefire deadline is extended but that the US Will continue to enforce that blockade on Iranian ports. And Gabe, tell us a little bit more about what we know took place at the White House today. We haven't seen the President on camera in a couple of days. He certainly did that lengthy interview this morning with cnbc.

But it seems that there was a lot of behind the scenes discussion and closed door meetings to try to figure out some of these next steps. What do we know about how those went and who was in them? That's right. Look, White House officials kept A very tight lips on what was happening here at the White House throughout the day.

We expected the vice president potentially at some point today to board that plane to Pakistan. But we learned that he was instead coming here to the White House. And then several hours later, we heard that it was those negotiators, Steve Wyckoff as well as Jared Kushner, that were arriving here as well to jump in on those policy meetings with the vice president and President Trump. Again, we don't know exactly what communication they may have had.

Appears they have been speaking with the Pakistan, Pakistanis, according to President Trump's message on social media that Pakistan has been communicating the Iranian position to the US There you see it right there. The president once again calling the government Iran seriously fractured and extending the ceasefire until they can come up with a unified proposal. Of course, this comes as the president had ramped up his rhetoric, his threats against the Iranian regime over the weekend. And yet late last week, he had been saying that the people we have been speaking with in Iran were much more reasonable than the previous regime.

So a lot of conflicting messaging there from the president now extending that cease fire after a day of holding pattern here at the White House. Thank you so much for bringing us that breaking news. We are going to stay on top of the development. We'll bring you the president's expected remarks later this hour, if they happen.

Coming up, the fate of the Fed and the fate of President Trump's nominee to lead the central bank both in the spotlight as Kevin Warsh faces a crucial confirmation test. We have the takeaways from today's hearing and President Trump's latest comments on the economy. Plus, a Democratic House lawmaker from Florida just resigned from Congress, the third House resignation in just over a week. We're live on Capitol Hill.

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Breaking news just coming in moments ago. Watch, read and listen throughout your day and now unlock even more with a subscription. It's the best of NBC News with fewer ad instructions, including ad free articles, podcasts and full NBC News shows, plus deeper access and exclusive content. Let's just take a step back.

It's more context and clarity from the reporters you trust. Download the NBC News app now and subscribe. Welcome back. It has been a busy and contentious day on Capitol Hill with President Trump's pick to lead the Federal Reserve, Kevin Warsh.

Facing difficult questions from his confirmation hearing about his independence and his views on the state of the economy. Warsh defended his record just hours after President Trump said publicly he would be disappointed if Wash did not lower interest rates as chairman. Wash today dodging questions from Democrats about the president while insisting he would not be influenced by political pressure. Name one aspect of President Trump's economic agenda with which you disagree.

Well, Senator, the Federal Reserve in recent years has wandered outside of its remit. Wandered. Another should stay in its lane. I do have a disagreement, actually, Senator, with the president.

I think even this morning he said that he thought I was out of central casting. I think central casting, I'd look older, grayer, maybe show up here with a cigar of sorts. Quite adorable. You maintain you'll be independent President Trump?

Yes, Senator, I do. Presidents tend to be for cutting rights. I think the difference is President Trump expresses it quite publicly without surrogates or subterfuge. But presidents want lower rates, but fed independence up to the Fed.

A vote on Borsh's nomination is currently being blocked by Republican Senator Thom Tillis, who's demanding the Justice Department drop its investigation of Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Tillis today speaking out during the hearing about his decision. The problem that I have here is that we had some US Attorney with a dream or assistant US Attorney thinking it would be cute to bring Chair Powell under an investigation just a few months before the position was going to be open May 15. The term would have expired.

We'd be having this hearing, you'd be getting confirmed. Custom also suggests that the sitting chair, even though he has two years left on his term, would have exited it. But instead we have somebody who thinks a building project that went over by about $700 million with a lot of what seemed to be justifications for it are holding up this whole process. President Trump, however, doubling down on his support of the DOJ's investigation, while also baselessly suggesting Powell may have received kickbacks from the construction.

Somehow we have to find out how this can happen. It's not the first time. How does this happen? Has did the contractor make three and a half billion dollars?

I can't imagine that too late. It's taking money on construction. But it's possible. But we have to find out why is a job that should have cost $25 million costing billions and billions of dollars.

NBC News Capitol Hill correspondent Melanie Zinona joins me now along with NBC News business and data correspondent Brian Chung. Thank you both for being here. Mel, Senator Tillis didn't back down from his blockade of Vorsh's nomination. What did he tell reporters after speaking out with hearing today?

Yeah, Senator, tell us really not budget here. And these are tiring. So he's kind of in a YOLO mode right now. But what's interesting, Monica, in this situation is that he actually doesn't have any issues with Kevin Morton.

Fact he called him a fine qualified nominee. He didn't spend any of the time at the hearing today trying to seek commitments from him or grilling him. Instead, he has focused his time and his ire on the fact that there's this what he views bogus investigation into the current Federal Reserve chairman. Jerome Politics is Dwightful to the sackering.

At the end of the day, there's only one thing that solves this problem and it's getting rid of the bogus investigation that started without the president's knowledge and has created the situation. Then we can talk about the efficacy of the project budgets. I'd like to do I would love to do it. And if I found impropriety, I would want my name on the investigation referral to doj.

That's how this place works. And given the makeup on this committee, W's nomination cannot get through without the support of Tillis. So unless something big changes here, Kevin Mosh's nomination going to be stuck in limbo for quite some time. Monica.

And well, aside from those concerns over Kevin Warsh's independence for the Focus Today, what were some of Democrats other lines of attack against Trump's pick to lead the Fed? Well, there was also some focus on Kevin Marsh's personal wealth. That is something that Elizabeth Warren really pressed him on because it confirmed he would be the wealthiest Fed Reserve chairman to ever hold that position. And there's still a lot of questions about his holdings and exactly what's in his assets.

But repeatedly he declined to answer questions about exactly what's in those holdings. He has said he's under confidentiality agreement that bars him from disclosing some of that. However, as Elizabeth Warren noted, if he confirms, he will have to divest those holdings in order to be compliance with the law, something that Elizabeth War wanted. Notice the record.

Mel, thank you so much for reporting from the Hill. I want to turn to Brian now and just get your thoughts on his testimony today. And did Tim Wash give you an indication of how he'd operate as Fed Chair if he is confirmed? Yeah, Mike, I think that the elephant in the room during this hearing was the independence by which Kevin Moore would operate the Federal Reserve if he is appointed to this role.

I think there are a lot of questions, understandably because of the noise around what the president has been saying with regards to the current Fed chair, who is Jerome Powell. He has been very vocal during his last administration, in the beginning of this administration, in advocating for lower interest rates, dramatically lower interest rates than there are right now. And there was commentary over the last few months over whether or not the pick who ended up being Kevin Ward should be someone that would have some sort of backdoor agreement with the president to make lower interest rates. As the president has questioned that in a recent interview with our own Tom Yamas, essentially line up questioning with the president was would Kevin Warsh have gotten a job if he did not assure you that were going to be lower interest rates?

The president suggesting an interview that yes, he would have gotten a job if he didn't feel like interest rates should be lower from where they are now. I should point out in the testimony, War said repeatedly that the president never asked him to, quote, predetermined, commit, fix, decide on any interest rate decision in any of our discussions, nor would I ever agree to do so. Will he follow through on that? That is an open question, Monica.

Brian and Democrats did focus during the hearing on the Fed's mandate to address inflation, but what is the effort to ensure maximum employment? What would Mosh have to say about that specifically? Yeah, just to zoom out here again, the Federal Reserve is really mindful of two different aspects of the economy. It is stable prices, which is moderating for inflation, which is certainly a worry right now with terrorists and the war with Iran, but also maximum employment, trying to make sure that as many people in the economy can be employed given where interest rates are, because that is the Fed's primary lever for steering this economy.

Now Kevin Warsh did seem to suggest that he wasn't happy with the way the Federal Reserve currently assesses inflation, suggesting that there are other types of measures that he could alternatively look at that he thinks would be better. But I think interestingly, it was really about consensus. You have to remember the Fed chair is just one of a number of voices inside the Fed that get to decide on interest rates. Here's what he said about what he said should be a family feud, if you will, approach to decide on interest rates.

Take a listen. My broad view is that interest rates need to be forward looking, need to be based on better data and we should have a big robust deliberation inside the fomc. I tend to favor messier meetings than some where people don't show up with rehearsed scripts. But we can have a good family fight.

If the central bank has that good family fight, I think that they're going to make better decisions. It is reminded that usually the Fed likes that consensus around those meetings. The Fed chair is usually one trying to corral that unanimous vote. But again, we're saying if he is appointed to this role that he would embrace that debate and made a few dissenting votes every now and then.

So certainly some interesting commentary coming out of the perspective Fed chair who again needs to navigate that to this situation in order to get confirmed a good old family fight. Okay, Frian, Sean, thank you so much for that. Mel, before I let you go, there is more news on Capitol Hill, this time on the House side of things. And another House member, Sheila Shirley McCormick, who resigned.

Was that a surprise to you? And what does that mean for Speaker Johnson's majority margin right now? Well, Mike, it wasn't exactly surprising, even though it's still shocking. I talked to a number of senior Congressional Black Caucus members who said they had privately encouraged her to resign and said they were really trying to walk her through the dynamics she was facing.

Those dynamics were the House Ethics Committee already found her guilty of 25 ethics violations Related to allegations that she stole FEMA money and other federal funds and funneled part of that money into her congressional campaign, allegations that she denies and in fact, how the committee was going to meet this afternoon to determine whether or not they were going to recommend expulsion or some other form of disciplinary action. So she announced that resignation just moments before that hearing. But it is still just remarkable what we've seen on Capitol Hill over the last just eight days alone. This is now the third member to resign after Eric Swallow and Tony Gonzalez both resigned over sexual misconduct.

And so it has been really quicklash for the margins here on Capitol hilltop, members who have been sworn in. But where it stands right now, Republicans can only afford to lose two Republicans on any party line vote. So as always, the historically small margins very tight right now. Meltdown never goal where you are.

Thank you so much for bringing us all that. We appreciate it. And we are still waiting on those remarks from the president at the White House will be his first public event since announcing a ceasefire with Iran just moments ago. We will bring you his remarks if he does start speaking about the war.

But up next, battle lines on the ballot. It's Election Day in Virginia and we're on the ground talking to voters as they decide the fate of a redistricting plan that could win Democrats four more seats in Congress. Stay with us. This is the press.

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Here's the scoop from NBC News. Listen daily on Spotify. Welcome back. If it's Tuesday, Virginia is voting about the future of voting.

Virginia is the latest battleground in a nationwide redistricting battle that President Trump kicked off when he pressured Texas to redraw its congressional map last year. But today, it's Democrats pushing for a referendum that would enact a new congressional map and potentially gain them four more seats. But as they head to the polls, Virginians would be forgiven for any confusion about which vote would lead to which outcome. Take a listen to how both sides of the debate have leveraged President Obama's words on redistricting.

Because of things like political gerrymandering, our parties have moved further and further apart, and it's hard and hard to find common ground. That's why two thirds of Virginians voted to end partisan gerrymandering. But Richmond politicians want to shred our bipartisan process and draw maps for themselves again. Virginia, we are counting on you.

Republicans want to steal enough seats in Congress to rig the next election and wield unchecked power for two more years. But you can stop them by going yes by April 21st. All of it reflects a larger messaging challenge for Democrats who sought to reframe this gerrymandering as a temporary but necessary counterweight to President Trump. In Virginia, no politician is entitled to power.

We can stop Trump by voting yes for fair elections, a temporary fix to level the playing field and put power back in the hands of the people where it belongs. Vote yes to stop the mega power grab, the yes on Fair Elections amendment is critical. It's a temporary emergency fix that restores fairness in our elections, preserves independent redistricting, and returns power to the people, people. Joining me now is Julie Carey, the Northern Virginia bureau chief at our NBC Washington station wrc.

And NBC chief data analyst Steve Kornacki is breaking things down at the big board, as he does. Julie, I will start with you. You're on the ground there talking to voters. What are they telling you about this referendum?

Well, what we'll say is voters are very clear about this decision they're making today. I think what is really remarkable is how engaged voters are with this ballot question. It is not typical for voters really anywhere to be coming to the polls in the spring, in April, passing ballots in the statewide election. But take a look at those early voting numbers.

Nearly 1.4 million Virginia casting early ballots. That's nearly as much as in the statewide election November when Virginia selected a new governor. But when voters are telling me today that people who are voting yes, they tell me almost universally they don't like casting this yes ballot they don't like the idea of gerrymandering, especially this map that cuts Virginia up into 10, one map, 10 Democrats to one Republican. But they also say they feel like it's something they have to do.

You mentioned it. They feel like they have to counter Donald Trump and what he has asked of other red states to do, asking GOP votes there. And they're very well aware that Virginia is the national spotlight and what happens here today could determine who wins control of the House in November. And the yes voters, they want that to be Democrats.

They say they want to restore a sense of balance in this country. Now, those voting no, most of them tell me they are Republicans. What they're mostly troubled by is the fact that it dilutes Republicans so much in the commonwealth. Only one seat in the entire commonwealth set out and drawn to favor Republicans.

So they're troubled by that. You know, they also point out, though, that Virginia right now has what's viewed as a very bipartisan fair map that was approved by voters some years ago. So they don't want the idea of seeing that blown up. Take a listen.

Now, what some of the voters had tell me today about their decision, yes or no. Why yes and why? Because we need to, as a poster state level the playing field. I would normally probably vote no, that they should be changing, but not.

But the only thing that bothered me was the fact that the current president is trying to change it in other states. Yeah, absolutely. That's it. I don't believe in changing these maps.

I don't believe this is the way to go. I know this is just going to continue from one state to another state in different directions. But I think we should stop it. The only way to stop is just by voting no.

I don't care what Texas or California or all them do. This was an independent. It's unbiased. It's 6 to 5 favoring Democrats.

But that seems to be fair to me. Came back for a minute. So I think you were talking, as you can see today, this is a very blue area where a steady stream here in Fairfax County. But again, voters very interested, very engaged in passing their ballots today.

Julie, thank you so much for being there and bringing us those voter voices. Steve, I do want to turn to you. What are you watching for tonight as the vote comes in? Yeah, I mean, a couple things I think.

First of all, obviously keep in mind, Virginia is to start with, it's a blue state. Now, there are blue earth states than Virginia, but this is still a state naris won by almost 6 points in 2024 was double digits for Joe Biden in 2020. And the governor's race just last November, Abigail Spanberger, Democrat, won this by almost 16 points. So generally Democrats are winning.

In Virginia, there was a Republican governor, Glenn Youngen, who won in 2021 by 2 points there. So Republicans can win, but when they win, it tends to be very close and generally there advantage to Democrats. So with that in mind, what we're looking to one of the places is it looks southwest Virginia. There's not a ton of votes to come out here, but this is a very Republican part of the state.

One thing we saw in that governor's race last fall when Republicans got blown out was turnout was lower here in a core rural Republican area relative to other parts of the state, especially Democratic suburbs closer to Washington D.C. and Virginia. So his turnout up here is at more level. That's something that the Republican side of the no side of this needs to see happening.

That's one of the ingredients. Then what about swing areas? There are 16 counties or cities, independent cities in Virginia that did vote for Spanberger last year and that voted for Youngkin. The Republican won the governorship in 2021.

The biggest of them would be Virginia beach right here. Virginia beach with about 450,000 people here. This is one tonight that the no side needs to win. Probably needs to win, you know, by five points or more if it's gonna have a shot statewide.

Right next door, another swing area. Again, it's a Spanberger and y Chesapeake city of Chesapeake, a quarter of a million people there. And there's also this just south of Richmond, big gigantic suburbia here. Chesterfield county against Spamberger one is going away.

Last year Youngton was able to eke out a win here in 2021. So I think this is a really kind of a bellwether county. Chesterfield county, when that comes in as it goes, you might be seeing how the state goes. One other keep in mind, just because I think we will get it earlier right outside of Washington D.C.

loudoun County Enhancements a very big county and this is a blue county. I would expect the yes side is going to carry Loudoun County. I only flag it because we tend to get results earlier here, full results earlier here than elsewhere. So I think one thing to keep in mind, if you look at Loudoun, the set of line at 12, if the yes side is winning by more than 12, I think it's a very good sign for them to carry this.

If it's less than 12, that's an encouraging sign for the no side of this thing. We might have to read out loud earlier in terms of more so broadly the national stakes of this year. Again, a lot of different numbers. You're looking at the House playing field comparing 2026 to 2018.

2018 was Trump's first midterm. And in 2018 the Democrats managed to win 40 seats, House seats, that midterm. The thing to keep in mind is almost all of those democratic gains in 2018 came in two types of districts. You see right here in 2018, Democrats made a lion share, their gains in districts that were held by Republicans but that Trump had lost in the presidential election.

There were 25 districts like that in 2018. Almost all of them flipped in 2018. Right now on this map, there are only eight districts like that. But if this Democratic plan goes forward In Virginia, that 8 will become 12.

There are four more districts that will be drawn here. That would be Republican health, but that Trump would have lost under these new lines. This next category was the other place where Democrats made their huge gains in 2018. They were Republican seats, but Trump won them by fewer than seven and a half points.

Again, there were 23,000. 2018, there are 15 now. If this passes tonight, that comes down to 13 because it's a 15 move over this way. But those are the stakes here.

Democrats get much more low hanging fruit if they can win in Virginia. Tonight, Steve Kornacki on a fascinating dynamic right in our backyard. We're watching that very closely, Steve, thank you. And we'll see you tonight for another edition of the Kornaki Cam, tracking the results in Virginia as they come in.

It all kicks off at 6:45 Eastern on nbcnews.com let's turn now to another shakeup in President Trump's cabinet with Lord Chavez de Rumer resigning as labor secretary. Chavez Rumour announcing her decision late yesterday in the midst of an inspector general probe into possible misconduct. She's now the third cabinet secretary to lead the administration less than seven weeks after President Trump ousted both his Homeland Security secretary, Chrissy Noem, and his attorney general, Pam Bondi. Joining me now is our panel, Idris Khalun, staff writer at the Atlantic, Archie Siddiqi, Democratic strategist and former senior aide to former Speaker Pelosi and Republican strategist Annalise Keller.

Thank you all for being here on a breaking news day. I do want to start Idris with you on that news about the labour secretary being out. And we do talk about these other women that the president has now taken out of their respective posts. Does Brie make a pattern?

What does it tell you about this cabinet chico? It's interesting. I mean, there was, you know, Mike Waltz at the very start of this administration. Remember him?

He was National Security Advisor. He got demoted or promoted depending on who's telling story to Ambassador the UN over single gate. So I think the pattern here is, you know, I think all of these kind of secretaries lost their jobs for different reasons. In the labor secretary's case, you know, through the New York Times, there's been a lot of scandal, not a lot of policy coming out there.

On the DHS side, there was. That's something that was much more important than the President. But again, there was a lot of personal scandal and in particular the killing of the two American citizens, I think was what was what caused president was confidence there. And with Bondi said she wasn't Trumpy enough.

Right. She wasn't willing to go far enough for the President. So maybe it's a pattern. But also, I think you can also look at it and say that there are three very disparate causes here.

There have been so little turnover in the first 12 or 13 months compared to what we've just seen in recent weeks. But they are all very different cases. And Elise, do you think that the next shoe to drop here could be the FBI director Cash Patel, in the wake of that reporting from the Atlantic, which detailed his conduct as erratic, a management failure and a national security vulnerability? According to the interviews that they included in that report that included every FBI officials to Intel Agency staff, members of Congress and former advisors.

Could he be on the shopping mall? He could be. I mean, obviously he's out vehemently defending himself, saying he's going to sue, that this is not accurate. You know, the rumor mill, I think, will continue to churn, and I think he will go, you know, have some increased scrutiny.

There was initial scrutiny for him around some of his. The way that he was operating with travel and things like that. So I wonder if maybe that will sort of come back up and there might be some additional investigations around him on that. But I do think it's interesting that there really have not been any shifts in the Cabinet up until this point.

Sometimes people look at, you know, we're coming up on midterms. We want to go ahead and, you know, move on from some of these people that might be creating some negative press stories. So I do think that this is kind of the time you don't want to get too close to the midterms with some of the dysfunction. So there is kind of a window that I think we should watch for.

Usually there's sort of a memo to the cabinet like, you're going to leave. This is your moment, make your decision, and then everybody hunker down. But we have reported NBC News, that the president was frustrated specifically with Cash Patel over some of the antics on display when he was at the Winter Olympics back in February. So could this also kind of present a solution to the President for a problem that he's already been debating?

Yeah, I mean, I'm not sure. I don't know how serious some of his frustrations with Cash have been, but certainly if there is, you know, if he wants to put his foot on the gas and get rid of someone and kind of tighten this ruse, he's able to do that. And I don't know what would really stop him at this point. I think it's just a matter of, you know, his sort of priorities.

Right now. Everything's in the foreign policy space in Iran. I think that's kind of where his focus is right now. And on that point, Arshi, what we saw with DHS in particular and the replacement there, at least with over Senator Mullen now the Secretary of Homeland Security, it almost seems like there's an effort to soften the image of dhs.

We've seen a couple of shifts on immigration enforcement and beyond that. So is that maybe the route that the White House could conserve for the doj, too? Do you think that's something that's working for the doj? For doj?

If anything, we'll see that the President is going to go very aggressively. We've already seen that foreshadowed in terms of these talk about voter intimidation. And that's where all this started. I would say.

If you look at Bondi, she actually, we don't see this happening. The difference between Trump 1.0 and 2.0 is the policy alignment is pretty significant. And I think she could have gotten aggressive. It just, I think her bed style, manner maybe was.

Was not playing well. Whereas I think now we see somebody coming into the role who's a little bit on, at least on dhs that's a little bit more kind of politically, you know, what he's able to navigate politically in a way that's a little bit softer around the edges, but just as aggressive on the policy side. And he also has some Democratic relationships. So he does have that open line of communication.

Yeah. And it was really interesting just in the last few days where we did see someone like Tucker Carlson, Idris, right. A longtime Trump ally, now expressing what we could call buyer's remorse over his role, he said, in getting the president elected. Here's what he said on his podcast this week.

Speaking his brother, who once served as Trump's speech. Right to listen to that. You and me and millions of people like us are the reason this is happening right now. Yes.

So I do think it's like a moment to wrestle with our own consciences. You know, we'll be tormented by it for a long time. I will be. And I won't say I'm sorry for misleading people who was unintentional.

That's all I'll say. Tormented by wow, interesting. How significant of a break is this for the president? I think it's big.

You know, Tucker Carlson has been a devoted fan of his devoted and a very important, you know, popular popularizer of his message. The fact that we've seen Natchezim and Marjorie Taylor Greene break with the president so prominently I think is a sign of the MAGA coalition fraying as people look towards the midterm elections, at which point the Republican contest to be the next president will happen. And certainly based on the president's actions, it doesn't seem like he's making a popularity play to run for a third term or anything like that. So I see that.

But in that podcast maybe a few points. The break is over Israel, Iran, the war that the president promised you wouldn't get American too. But he's now into. But it's also about vaccines.

That's something that they spent like 20 minutes talking about. Yeah. And another prominent podcast where analyst Joe Rogan was at the White House single. He made up the president this weekend.

We make his appearance with him because there had been some backlash. He had put some distance there. Specifically before Iran. Yeah.

I mean, I think he's skeptical of what's going on in Iran, but certainly going to take the win and be behind the president for some of his own priorities. But I guess just from a Republican perspective, I see the Tucker Carlson thing a little bit differently. You know, Tucker Carlson is totally creator with Republicans. I think it gets some polls.

He's got about 7% approval with GOP and GOP independent leaning folks, whereas President Trump still like 83, 81% approval with among Republicans. So depending on the polls that you look at, I think if people are going to have to pick between those two like they're going to they're going to stick with President Trump are actually the final moments that we have is that welcome for Democrats saying some of this fraying in the manga base. I think the fraying is significant because it reinforces this narrative that we're seeing claiming across the board that whether that the president has veered away from his campaign promises, whether forever wars, whether that scheme files, whether it's economic policies and it's making life more difficult for Americans rather than better. So I think that's why that's very significant actually, that they Arshi and least Idris, thank you so much for your time today.

And still to come, left in the lurch, we will get the view from a humanitarian aid worker who's on the ground in Beirut. Has more than 1 million displaced civilians, including hundreds of thousands of children in Lebanon face the devastating impact of war. Keep it here on me the press now. Welcome back.

The Israeli military is accusing Hezbollah of firing rockets at its troops inside Lebanon, with the IDF then firing its own strikes in return despite a 10 day ceasefire. According to officials, the US is expected to host a second round of talks between Israel and Lebanon this Thursday in hopes of extending the current ceasefire. Meanwhile, hundreds of thousands of people who were forced from their homes by Israel's bombing campaign are now returning to southern Lebanon amid the fragile pause, with many finding their homes reduced to Rubble. According to UNICEF, more than 1 million people have been displaced by the conflict, including nearly 400,000 children.

Joining me now is UNICEF representative James Elder who is in Beirut. James, thank you so much for being here to talk about this really important issue. And I want to start with the situation on the ground right now in Lebanon. What are the main humanitarian needs right now for families and how is UNICEF helping them?

If it's bleak, I have to say, Monica, obviously it's better because the level of bombardments have almost, almost stopped. That's a very big plus. But even 400,000 children have been displaced. 400,000.

We talk of displacement. I don't think people quite understand. I think people feel quite a neutral term. It's not, it's repet.

It's violent. So children lose their home and then all the anxiety of their parents who have, you know, like in most places spent decades trying to build that home. Many homes as you speak, are still being demolished in the south. Israel continues to do that.

So hundreds of thousands of children in schools, but sleepy in school. So UNICEF is doing everything, goodness me, from biscuits to blankets, you know, trucking in water to places. A lot of stuff, Monica, with children have been wounded, psychological support, but also medical support, mobile health teams. So it's a huge Amount of work, very difficult circumstances.

And I've got colleagues who have also lost family members here. So everyone is rallying around. But Lebanese have suffered hugely time and again, particularly for children. They really haven't recovered psychologically, physically from the attacks of September 2020.

An incredibly difficult situation, no doubt. And on top of that, compounding that is the fact that government funding cuts to global aid like UNICEF means that you are facing a budget shortfall this year. So how is that impacting your work in Lebanon right now? Yeah, it's a great question.

It's kind of two sides of the same moral retreat. We say international humanitarian law abandoned and remember, that's the bare minimum the world agreed to in war. It's not the ceiling, it's the floor. At the same time, whilst that's occurring, hurting children, whatever, because we see a range of indispensable attacks and impunity.

Attacks on health workers, attacks on all the services children rely upon. We're seeing those funding countries talk about unprecedented funding cuts, monitor, you know, we think of the Global Financial Crisis, 2008, 9 the banks were bailed out, no one's bailing out for children. And people just don't understand that. So where I now in Lebanon or where I'm in Haiti or DRC or Sudan and you have these incredible colleagues and incredible health workers and partners going to enormous lengths and then suddenly they don't have nutrition supplies, they suddenly don't have the vaccines and they just don't understand why this moment of need they had the rug pulled out front of them.

I don't think anyone truly understands at this moment, given that we're talking about a few dollars per person here in terms of actual costs for those countries that can fund. So in Lebanon we're less than one quarter funded. So I talk about that work we're doing of water, of sanitation, education of psychological support, of shelter and 3/4 unfunded, that has day to day impacts in terms of the services, the support we can get to children and mothers. And as you alluded to, so many people are returning to Lebanon south to find their homes just completely destroyed.

So kind of long term impacts, do you see this creating in Lebanon for children? Yeah, it's particularly grave. I mean the country's already still reeling from those attacks of 8 April, almost two weeks ago, when there were around 150 airstrikes in 10 minutes when dozens of children were killed in almost an instant. And then you have families hoping to go home, hoping their home will be home.

I'm being told that they can't. There is an entire area now, Israel is cordoned off and demolitions continue. And then you have the trauma people going through. I mean, like just today, earlier today, I was with a colleague getting that sense that no one is safe, no one feels safe anywhere.

As you know, it's a colleague and he was walking across the rubble of what was his sister's home. He was returning to it for the first time since an airstrike hit there. She's younger sister, she was a preschool teacher. She was killed in the strike, her son was killed in the strike of a three year old boy.

He's walking around and he's sort of, he's holding up school books and her textbooks and teaching material as a preschool teacher. He's just saying this was the target, this was the target. Now this is not no longer rare. This has been routine, Lebanon and Gaza and so on.

And so it's going to take a long, long time if the ceasefire holds, Monica, if the ceasefire holds for families, for children, for grandparents to recover from this. And in our last moments here, James, what are you hearing from people there about their hopes for the ceasefire being extended? Possibly. It's a great question, Michael.

Look, they have to hope. They know that Lebanese are very, very savage to the political realities. The last thing they want is war. And so they will hope for this ceasefire.

Someone said maybe hope is that blind spot. It's a nice blind spot to have. But the last one ceasefire, there were thousands of breaches officially recorded from Israel during that. So they are holding on to hope.

But they know that they need something more than that if it really is their children and their families really are to be safe in the coming days and weeks. James Elder of unicef, thank you so much for your time and your efforts on all this. We appreciate it. We're back tomorrow with more Meet the Press now.

And there's much more ahead on NBC News now. Hey, everyone, I'm Dylan Dryer, co host of the third hour of Stay and mom to three Wild Boys. I've learned a lot my years as a parent, mostly that I don't have it all figured out yet. And I'm not the only one.

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