Meet the Press NOW — February 17

Foreign. Welcome to Media Press. Now I'm Lion Nobles in Washington. And we begin with the sky high tension between the US And Iran as both countries ramp up their military threats and saber rattling even as diplomatic discussions are underway to rein into Iran's nuclear program.

US Special envoy Steve Wyckoff and the President. Santa Mon. Jared Kushner are in Geneva today for the second round of indirect negotiations with Iran ahead of today's talks. While speaking to reporters on Air Force One last night, President Trump said he believes that Iran wants to make a deal.

So I'll be involved in those talks indirectly and they'll be very important. We'll see what can happen. It's been typically a ransom, very tough negotiation or bad negotiators. I would say they're bad negotiators because we could add a deal instead of sending the B2 to knock out their nuclear potentials.

I hope, I hope they're going to be more reasonable. They want to make a deal. Been told that a deal is next to impossible? No, I think they want to make a deal.

I don't think they want the consequences of not making a deal. They want to make a deal. Those comments come just days after President Trump said this about possible regime change in Iran. Do you want regime change in Iran?

Well, it seems like that would be the best thing that could happen. For 47 years they've been talking and talking and talking. In the meantime, we've lost a lot of lives. While they talk.

Now, following Today's talks, a U.S. official telling NBC News that progress was made but there are still a lot of details to discuss. While RUN's foreign minister telling state media that the two sides quote, agreed on some general guiding principles. But looming over the negotiations in Geneva, escalating military threats from both countries.

The US Continues it's military buildup in the region. President Trump repeatedly touting what he calls the massive armada the Pentagon is sending to the region with one U.S. aircraft carrier already there and a second on its way. And this morning, Iran's supreme leader issuing a threat of his own posting on social media, quote, more dangerous than that warship is the weapon that can send that warship to the bottom of the sea.

Meanwhile, Iran is also holding live fire exercises in the Strait of Hormuz, a key shipping route in the region with thousands of U.S. troops stationed nearby. Joining me now is NC News White House correspondent Monica Alba, NBC News chief international correspondent Keir Simmons. And with me on set is NBC News chief Washington correspondent and chief foreign affairs correspondent Andrea Mitchell.

Monica, let's start with you, what more do we know about the role President Trump is playing in these talks in Geneva? Yeah, he mentioned that he was going to be involved indirectly. And we know from Vice President Vance just moments ago, Ryan, that he spoke with both Steve Wittkoff and Jared Kushner earlier today. And the agreement in the position of the Trump administration at this time seems to be that they are still pursuing this diplomatic path, but the president is still reserving all of his options.

And that could still include those military strikes. And that's why you've seen such a buildup of assets in the region if the president decides to go that route. But we've been here before with this kind of rhetoric back and forth between Iran and the United States. But the president remember saying some weeks ago that the US Was locked and loaded and ready to go, only to back down from that, to support the protesters at the height of those demonstrations and then again to pull back from that and indicate that they were still reviewing their options.

So this seems to be a moment in which the president, the vice president are saying that Iran has not recognized some red lines that the US has, they say for this potential future deal. But what hasn't been clear also, Ryan, is exactly what the goal is of any potential US Action in Iran is the regime change. Does the president said that would be the best thing, but what would that mean for who would then lead Iran and what would happen after that? That's still an open question.

Is this about the ballistic missile program or is this about the nuclear weapon capability? That has been the focus of the last couple of days. So it does seem the talks are going to continue. The president will continue to be brief, but I think you can still expect this kind of heated language and rhetoric to go back and forth.

Let's talk more about that rhetoric because it is potentially explosive here. I mean, has the White House reacted to Iran's live fire exercises or even some of the statements that Iranian supreme leaders are posting on social media is threatening the US Military forces right now? The White House will only say essentially that when the president feels he needs to act on this, he will. And that anyone who doubts that just needs to look toward the evidence of the strikes of last summer on those nuclear sites in Iran, on that Operation Midnight Hammer, as it was called.

And that's something that White House continues to back to saying that the president, if he decides he wants to go forward with this, will do. So he will be brief. He will continue to see what goes into a decision like this and then ultimately make that call. That's what vice president also said in this interview moments ago, that it's only the president who can decide this.

Though we know again that there seemed to be a moment or a pause a couple of weeks ago where they did take one step back from the brink of this potential action. Now again is back in the conversation in a significant way. But again, it's something we have seen go back and forth. Ryan, it's just unclear whether this time there is something indicative here of actual military action.

Though I think they're going to try to continue to do the diplomatic negotiation, at least in the short term. Let's pick up on that and go here now, because here they are at least talking, at least on some level. I give us the view from the region. Was enough accomplished in Geneva to avoid military escalation in the region?

No, not enough in Geneva. Now the question is whether or not more can be achieved. As Michael was laying out there in potential talks, looking ahead, look, we don't know when strikes might happen, if they happen. Famously, last year, the Iranians point this out.

There were talks taking place when President Trump launched Operation Midnight Hammer to hit those Iranian nuclear program sites. And of course, that was during the 12 Day War. So there is a lot of military hardware in this region. Now it's bristling with military hardware, F35s, F18s, air defenses around bases.

I think one of the things that has happened in the weeks that have passed is that the Trump administration was considering a strike. Many of America's allies and partners in the region, the Arab nations and possibly Israelis as well, were worried that they wouldn't be properly defended by a reaction from the Iranians. But the point here is the arsenal, the missile arsenal that Iran has. And now what we've seen since then are these huge amounts of armaments, as you mentioned, those two carrier strike groups, and there are unconfirmed reports of AWACS on the way here.

The amount of machinery, if you like, that has been moved around now potentially puts the Trump administration in a position where the minister will be able to say to the president, you can do this now and we can react to whatever Iran throws at us, but it will be high risk. And particularly if the decision was to strike the leadership of Iran, even potentially Supreme Leader Ayatollah, that might put Iran in a position where it feels it has no choice but to throw everything it can back. So there certainly is a risk. Thousands of American servicemen who are based in this region.

Yeah, of course, this all comes after we saw those Nationwide protests last month that were fueled by Iran's economic crisis. Given that, does Iran have any leverage going into these talks? Will they settle for just sanctions relief at this point? Well, the Iranians are famous for delaying and kind of trying to get this goes back all the way back to 1979.

Frankly. The Iranians are famous for trying to kind of bog Washington down in talks and stretch things out. Playing for time, if you like. What we do know is that what the Iranians have said is that they are prepared to talk about the nuclear program, may be prepared to, if you like, dilute the highly enriched uranium, 400 kg of 60% highly enriched uranium, but not to send it out of the country, not to take any action immediately anyway around those missiles, not to take any action around proxy groups like Hezbollah and Hamas, Houthis, and not to do another thing that the Trump administration has been saying, as you mentioned, and that is to change for Greece, to change the way it treats its own people.

So these talks today, three hours long, how much do they really get into in those talks of that kind of granular detail? And how is President Trump now assessing what he's being told by his envoy and his son in law about what the Iranians are prepared to do? They're not prepared to do? Okay, Kir, thank you for that, Cernan.

Andrea in studio who I just got back from Munich. You talked to a lot of American lawmakers about the situation and the US Stance towards Iran. What do they tell you? There's a mix of views.

Most of them. There's a 31 member Senate delegation, six House members. There's a view that this is too risky, that the chaos that could follow could be more devastating than what is continuing right now. There's one outlier he's got some support and that is Lindsey Graham.

And he believes that the chaos that could follow regime, the regime being toppled is less risky than the chaos right now, than the savagery of the response to the protesters, than the arrests, the killings. And I talked to him at an enormous rally. I went with him to a rally in Munich of it turned out to be 250,000 people turning out in the rain on a muddy field that seriously used for October 1st. And it was organized by Reza Pahavi, the son of the former shah, who is one figure who is being talked about as a potential transitional figure.

He doesn't have support abroad based support, but he certainly has a lot of support within Iran and outside. They were Protestants all over the world. I talked to Lindsey Graham before he Addressed this crowd as though it were a political rally. And this is what he said about his message.

You got two choices. Continue this murderous regime and which would be disaster for the planet, or stick behind. Stick with the Iranian people. Give them what they need to achieve their long desire to be free.

This decision will affect America for years to come, the entire world for years to come. If the Iranian people can pull this off, take the Ayatollah down and replace them with something far better, which I think will happen, then Hezbollah, Hamas, all the terrorist groups fall. If the mothership of terrorism falls, the world's in a better spot. We talked to some of the demonstrators there.

They're from all over the world. And they say, you know, the President said, help us on the way. Well, where's the help? People were slaughtered.

Now, does he really mean it? What Lindsey Graham told me is he's hoping that these protests, these large crowds, will inspire people to take the streets in larger numbers inside Iran and really be a tipping point. He's telling the president, your legacy depends on not abandoning the people of Iran. This is your opportunity.

The President, I believe, firmly believes that they've got to contain the missiles. That's what the Saudis in the UAE are telling them, that the grand is in the region. He just came from Israel. He's coming in the UAE and then to Saudi Arabia, trying to persuade the Arabs that the retaliation will be less risky to them if the US Takes action, takes up the launchers.

So that's one of the plans. But I think the bottom line is if Iran does not agree to stop enrichment and contain their missile program, I don't think there's going to be any way out of avoiding a military class. Andrew Mitchell for reporting from you and beyond. Andrew, thank you, as always.

I appreciate it. Some scary moments on Capitol Hill this morning when U.S. capitol Police arrested an individual who was running toward the building with a shotgun. Here's some of what the Capitol Police chief said just moments ago about the incident.

This individual was challenged by United States Capitol Police officers and ordered to drop the weapon, which he did comply with. He laid down the weapon and then laid down on the ground and was taken into custody by our United States Capitol Police officers. This individual had a tactical vest on. He also had tactical gloves.

And when we looked in the vehicle, he had a Kevlar helmet and a gas mask in the vehicle. Joining the scenes, Capitol Hill correspondent on Capitol Hill. We regularly get these little threats, the warnings, they turn out to be nothing. But this looks like it actually could have been A serious incident.

What more are we learning? Well, according to Capitol Police had a loaded shotgun. He also had a tactical vest and gloves and he also had additional rounds on him as he was charging the Capitol with that shotgun. Now, after he was taken into custody, the police also searched his vehicle and what they found there was he also had a gas mask as well as a Kevlar helmet.

So here's what we do know about the suspect. He is 18 years old. He is not known to live in the area. He's also not known to police.

So it seems like there's still some more to determine here. We also don't know the motive or whether he had any sort of political motivations. So this is definitely an ongoing investigation. But the police did determine there were no additional suspects and no ongoing threat to the area.

And is there anything more we should expect from this investigation, perhaps motives, something along those lines? Yeah, I think in a case like this, Ryan, one of the first things you would want to determine is whether this was targeted to members of Congress and the Capitol. We should know that Congress was thankfully out of session today, all this week in fact. But this does come amid an uptick and a spike in threats to members of Congress.

In fact, last year it was the highest level of threats to lawmakers since the United States Capitol Police started tracking those types of numbers. So anytime you have an incident like this, it is extremely concerning, extremely scary and taken very, very serious. Okay, Melz, thanks for being on top of the breaking news. We appreciate it.

Coming up, 17 days since NAST Nancy Guffrey went missing and the search for clues continues. We are live in Arizona with an update as investigators chase thousands of tips. But first we're remembering the life and legacy of the Reverend Jesse Jackson, the civil rights icon and two time presidential candidate who died today at the age of 84. Here he is on Meet the Press in July of 1984 during his first historic campaign for the White House.

You must put one foot in the system and one foot outside. We must fight for change. We got to adjust the party. We must change the party that right to vote 18 years ago after much bloodshed and death and yet 18 years later for this great brotherhood that 512,000 elected officials about 51, we got about 1% of elect officials.

We're about 12% of the population. At this rate it will take us 198 years to achieve parity. My generation is restless. We must change the system and not just it.

Welcome back. We want to take some time out to honor and remember civil rights icon, the Reverend Jesse Jackson, who died early this morning at the age of 84. A Baptist preacher known for delivering stirring speeches, Jackson was a trailblazer in American politics. A two time presidential candidate credited with expanding the Democratic coalition and opening the door for future black politicians.

He was born in 1941 in Greenville, South Carolina, and became a protege of Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr. In 1968, Jackson witnessed the assassination of Dr. King, standing alongside him on the balcony of the Lorraine Motel.

As shots rang out, he continued Dr. King's work, founding what then became the Rainbow Push Coalition, advocating for more opportunities for minorities. Jackson ran for president twice, first in 1984 and then again in 1988, delivering an electrifying speech at the convention that year. When you see Jackson, Jackson, my name goes in nomination.

Your name goes in nomination. I was born in Islam, but Islam was not born in me. And it wasn't going in you. And you can make it.

Every other night. You can make it. Hold your hands high, stick your chest out. You can make it.

It gets dark sometimes but the morning comes. Don't you surrender? Slumbering grease paradox, tired of the breach. Faith in the end, faith will not disappoint.

You must not surrender. You may or may not get there but just notice are qualified. You hold on and hold out. We must never surrender.

America will get better and better. Keep hope alive. Keep hope. I love you very much.

His words inspiring many to run for office, including President Obama, who credits Robert Jackson for paving the way for his own presidential run. A visibly emotional Reverend Jackson was in the crowd at Obama's victory rally in Grant park in Chicago when Obama became America's first and only black president. Today, Americans across the political spectrum are remembering Jackson, including President Trump, who called him a quote, good man with lots of personality, grit and street smarts. Jackson's family saying in a statement his unwavering belief in justice, equality and love uplifted millions.

And we ask you to honor his memory by continuing the fight for the values he lived by. Joining me now is Mark Morial. He is the president and CEO of the National Urban League. Mark, thanks so much for joining us.

I mean, you've known Reverend Jackson for a long time. You were on stage with him at the 2024 DNC. How will you be remembering him today? I remember him as a transformative figure.

He was a man who was a giant in stature. He was a man who was tireless in his efforts, a hard working, committed person who followed his conviction. I'll often remember him as Someone that bridged in civil rights anti electoral politics. That 1984 candidacy was not taken seriously by many.

And I think that 1984 candidacy represented Reverend Jackson's political skill in, on one hand, challenging the orthodoxy and the leadership of the Democratic Party while articulating a vision in response to the Reaganism budget cuts of the 1980s. I think his 88 campaign paved the way for significant changes in the structure and in the nomination process within the Democratic Party for president. And I think his work over the years in registering and educating and motivating and mobilizing millions of voters helped elect Doug Wilder and David Dinkins and Bill Clinton and of course, Barack Obama. For me, who served in elected Office in the 90s and the early 2000s and had a chance to serve as a Jackson delegate twice in 84 and 88, his candidacy gave a hope to a generation of us that it was through elected office that you can actually be a change agent for civil rights and economic opportunity.

So he'll be remembered as a giant, I think, as I think, the most important civil rights leader of the last 50 years. I want to play something that Reverend Jackson said. I'll meet the press back in 1983. Take a listen to this.

And let's face it, many of us have learned to live together, live apart for a long time. We've learned to survive without each other, but not to win without each other. And so now the Rainbow Coalition is in formation. It's becoming more functional.

This campaign will appeal to those boats stuck at the bottom. And they are black, they're Hispanic, they're female, they're Asian, and many of them are now registering and coming together for the first time. Talk to me a little bit more about this Rainbow Coalition, how he was reaching out to all minority groups and how that redefined the Democratic Party. I think the Democratic Party was having a crisis in identity.

The modern Democratic Party or Franklin Roosevelt was a broad coalition and a broad tent. But it was a tent in the 30s and 40s that really did not significantly include African Americans at the table, maybe as voters of that coalition. I think what Reverend Jackson's candidacy was about was bringing those who had been locked out and left out of leadership and participation in decision making to the big table in Democratic politics and his candidacy. I think, you know, we should recall that people like Ron Brown and Alexis Herman and Donna Brazile and Mignon Moore and many, many, many, many others cut their teeth in the, if you will, in the Jackson campaigns of 84 and indeed 88, and then went on to play significant roles in the Democratic Party, even up until today.

So we've got to recognize the profound impact. Jesse, with that clip you just showed, showed a vision of what America could be like in the 21st century. He was ahead of his time. And to that point, I don't know if you saw President Biden's statement today.

He did praise Reverend Jackson and his efforts to work toward equality, but he also added that we've never fully lived up to that promise. Do you think Reverend Jackson would agree with that? Reverend Jackson would certainly agree with that. And he would be, as I know he was, stunned and disappointed by the backlash that's underway in America today.

The attacks on diversity, the attacks on equal opportunity, the militarization of our cities, the cutbacks in funding for health and education and feeding programs. There is no doubt that that created a great deal of distress. But as a council, we have to continue to work. We have to continue to work together.

We have to continue to fight. We have to continue to fight together. And we must keep eternal hope alive. It's incredible when you think back about his career.

It had all these different stages, and it seems as though many people may remember one stage and may remember him as a political candidate. They may remember him for his work with civil rights after the fact. But it's really his activism roots, where it all started, when he worked with. With Martin Luther King, he was, of course, with them at the Royal Motel in Memphis on April 4, 1968.

How do you think that specific moment impacted him? And then is that what drove his activism later on? What was so remarkable about that generation? That generation was grounded in a sense of morality.

A sense of morality that sprung from the promise of the Constitution. A sense of morality, in the case of Martin Luther King and Jesse Jackson, that sprung from the teachings of New Testament Christianity. And that moral compass of right versus wrong motivated their activism, whether it was economic opportunity, whether it was voting rights, whether it was political participation, it was motivated by this profound sense, is that there is a difference between right and wrong. When you look at the long and challenging history of America, and I want to get your reaction to President Trump's statement on Jackson's death.

He'd praise him as a good man and a force of nature, but then goes on to say, despite the fact that I'm falsely, inconsistently called a racist by the scoundrels and literates on the radical left Democrats all, it was my pleasure to help Jesse along the way. Then goes on to slam President Obama. What do you make of President Trump's response to the legacy of Reverend Jackson. This is one day when responding to President Trump is not the thing to do.

Responding to President Trump is not the story today. President Trump is not the central focus today. And once again, he seeks to insert himself not with simple praise, but also with, if I would call it gratuitous, unnecessary criticism. He's got Barack Obama on his brain.

I don't know what that's about. Maybe he wants to go up and be like Barack Obama one day. I think we'll leave it right there. Mark Morale, thank you so much for your insight and your perspective on Reverend Jackson.

Appreciate it. Up next, new details on the DNA found in the search for Nancy Guthrie and what's next for investigators as the tips and tributes continue to pour in. Keep the red. Welcome back.

We turn now to the ongoing search for Nancy Guthrie, the mother of our friend colleague Savannah Guthrie. Two weeks after her disappearance, authorities are still searching for this man caught on that chilling doorbell footage outside of her home from the morning she went missing. The Pima County Sheriff's Department saying today that DNA from an unknown male on a glove found near Buffy's home did not produce any matches in the national database. They are also still working to analyze other DNA that was found in Nancy's home and did not belong to anyone close to her.

Joining me now is our ABC's corporation Kelly O', Donal, who remains in Tucson covering this case. Kelly, so no match on those gloves in the national database, but there's still other DNA being analyzed in the Guthrie's home. What do we know about that and when it could be tested? Well, definitely there is more DNA material and it's going through the process.

And today the sheriff sort of put at arms length the glove that was found two miles from the home in terms of the value and importance, obviously DNA at the Guthrie residence, where we know an abductor or perpetrator was present, that that is potentially more useful. Our colleague Liz Kreutz had an interview with the people sheriff today and he gave us an update on a number of key points that I think are interesting. He described the Walmart lead as a very strong piece in this case. We know that Walmart is where the backpack, the man seen in the video in those images, that's where it was purchased.

It was a house brand from Walmart and he indicated that there have been several thousand of those purchased in a matter of weeks. And they're working with the inventory control at Walmart to try to get information about purchases. Then of Course, Walmart has a lot of cameras and they were able to identify a known purchase that looked like it could be a value they might be able to match video. So they consider that to be a strong potential lead.

He also talked about the fact that the gun holster had some unusual characteristics. And so my reporting others on the team here, we have learned that FBI agents and investigators have gone to gun stores in the region to do some checks to show some pictures to see if anyone in that environment has some information because the suspect was armed and had this interesting holster for the weapon. Could that be elite? So those are some of the things that we're learning.

The sheriff also said he believes this case is solvable. As difficult as it is, and as far as he knows, it is possible that the perpetrator could have left DNA. Now, you have to remember he had gloves on, he had a mask, he was fully clothed. So we don't know what circumstances would bring about shedding DNA in the home.

But it is possible, he says, and they are looking to match that. He also talked about how the Guthrie family, Savannah, her siblings and spouses, the extended family there, have all provided their phones, access to their cars, their homes, that kind of thing for investigators to do a review. And that is part of why he felt comfortable saying they are victims in this case. They are not subjects of this investigation.

There was a lot that he talked about that actually car attention to. He said that Mark Zuckerberg actually reached out early in the investigation. It's been a couple weeks now. So early in the investigation he fought to the FBI to offer his and his company expertise if they be of help.

The sheriff wasn't specific on what Zuckerberg could do, but he also indicated just gives you a sense of the national profile of this case and certainly how well known that Savannah is and the Today show brand and so forth and how that has drawn attention. So those are some of the updates we're tracking today. Ryan, that's quite a bit, Kelly. And obviously you mentioned the national attention this is getting.

It's led to, you know, hundreds and thousands of tips being received by the sheriff's department and the FBI. Those tips just continue to grow. How on earth are they sorting through all this information? Well, that is such a huge issue.

The national attention, the deep interest, the concern the public has has generated a volume of tips. It's now more than 40,000 between the FBI and the Pima county sheriffs. How could you go through it? Well, the sheriff says that there are some technology companies that have an ability whether it's AI or other things, he didn't get specific about that, but a way for them to try to process and prioritize tips.

All of those tips have to be dealt with and judged about whether they are immediate action or a lesser priority. And however law enforcement makes that assessment so that the tips they're eliciting and asking for people's help, that it won't be lost in a mass of content. So there are even technical tools to try to help with that very big problem. Right.

Okay. We continue to pray for Nancy Safer turn. Kelly, thank you for being around the ground as always. We appreciate it.

Turning now to an update on a deadly shooting at Rhode island ice rink. Officials providing an update on the shooting that killed two and injured three others during a high school hockey game in Pawtucket and a press conference that is ongoing right now. Officials characterized the shooting as a targeted incident of domestic violence, but they did not give a motive. They've also identified the victims as Rhonda and Aiden Dorgan, the ex wife and son of the shooter.

The shooter, identified by police as Robert Dorgan, who also went by Roberta, was found dead on the scene of an apparent self inflicted gunshot wound. Officials also praising the response of good Samaritans in the arena who helped stop the shooter. If it's Tuesday, someone's voting early. And some of the most hotly competitive and closely watched primaries of the year are officially underway in Texas.

Steve Kornacki standing by at the big board to break it all down for us. Stay with us. This is MEET THE PRESS down. Welcome back.

If it's Tuesday, voters are voting somewhere and today that somewhere is 10 where early voting officially kicks off today ahead of the primary on March 3rd. There are dozens of federal, state and local races on the ballot, but all eyes are on the race for the U.S. senate seat currently held by John Cornyn. He's facing a multi candidate primary that includes a significant challenge from Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton.

Meanwhile, on the Democratic side, State Representative James Talarico and Congressman Jasmine Crockett are the two front runners for a chance to take on whichever Republican wins that primary and try to realize Democrats long held goal of flipping that Senate seat blue. Joining me now is NBC News chief data analyst Steve Kornacki. So, Steve, all eyes are certainly on this matchup between the front runners, Tyler Cohen, Crockett and Cornyn and Paxton. But could we see a third candidate potentially change the tide in either of those primaries?

Well, there are all sorts of wild cards here. And Ryan, I think the big story Here is not since 2012 have we seen an incumbent senator be denied renomination by his or her party. But there's grave danger for Cornwall and that he could be the first sense. Then take a look here.

We'll start with the dynamics on the Republican side. There is that three way race here. Paxton, Congressman Wesley Hunt and Cornyn. Now the most recent poll, this is from University of Houston about a week ago in this race, it showed Paxton, the state attorney general in the lead here, Cornyn seven points behind, 38, 31.

Wesley Hunt running a distant third year. Hunt, the congressman from the Houston area, maybe some geographic limitations among other things to his support. Now the problem here for Cornyn, besides just being down seven points against Paxton in this matchup is when you go inside of these numbers, one thing that they also measured here was favorable unfavorable rating with Republicans. Ken Paxton's net favorable rating with Republicans in Texas is plus 50.

Cornyn's is only plus 31. Cornyn has higher negatives, significantly higher negatives with Republican voters than Ken Paxton does. And where you really see it in the same poll is when they played out hypothetically a runoff because again, Texas a runoff state if nobody gets 50% as prior, the top two run it off. If it's Paxton, Cornyn, this is what the poll found.

That would look like 51, 40 double digits, 11 point advantage there for Paxton over Cornyn. Now the argument, the big argument that the Cornyn folks are trying to make to Texas Republican voters here is hey, this race could be in danger in the fall of Paxton's nominee. He had a 10 year legal battle over security fraud charges. He ended up settling it with a $300,000 fine.

Paxton as AG was impeached by the Republican controlled state House. He was acquitted in the Senate. But they believe the corn folks said Republican voters nominate Paxton. You're asking for potential trouble in the general election.

Well, check this out. In the same poll here, they matched up Cornyn against the two main Democratic candidates, Jasmine Crockett, James Calarigo. Cornyn up two, Cornyn up one. Then they turned around and they matched Paxton.

Paxton up two, Paxton up two. The argument from the Corn folks is you'll see this effect over time if they nominate Paxton Republicans. But you don't see in the poll right now, so on surface a screaming alarm bell to Republican primary voters. Maybe the biggest thing that Cornyn's hoping for in this race is the X factor.

The ultimate X factor would be if Donald Trump were away and the president on the sidelines. Here, the same poll finding majority of Republicans saying if Trump weighed in, it would make potentially a difference to their vote. You know, can Cornyn convince the president, especially if he makes it into that runoff, to come off the sidelines? You know, Trump doesn't like to backhand.

He doesn't think they have a good shot here. A lot of these underlying numbers probably giving the president pause as he looks at this race, too. Yeah. It seems as though the president looks all the above right now.

We'll see how that plays out in this primary. Steve, thanks for bringing it down. We appreciate it. Dan America joins us now as part of our panel, co anchor of Washington Post's Early Brief newsletter, Antoine Seawright, a Democratic strategist and founder and CEO, Blueprint Strategies, and Republican strategist Annalise Keller is here.

Well, again, you and I are losing count of all the times Democrats have told us that they've got a shot in Texas. Let's just go through the recent history there. In 2018, we remember better. O' Rourke right in Ted Cruz beat him by three points in 2020, John Corner won by 10 points, 10.

Cruz won again in 2024 by eight points. Colin all over thought he had a shot. I know the dynamics this time around are a little bit different. Is there actually a possibility here that Democrats could steal the seat?

It's become almost a proof it for Democrats. There was a time when people just believe that maybe this is true. Maybe there's a chance that we're probably being the best example of that Democrat to not back that up. And so at this point, I think there's a lot of not just reporters and voters, but donors who don't want to give money to a losing cause.

And they have to these candidates have to say, have to give a reason that they can actually turn Texas blue. I think Ken Paxton may be that reason. If Republicans dominate him, at least in the minds of the republic of Democratic don't. There are huge hopes from Republicans here in Washington that Donald Trump would get in, would maybe clear the fuel for John Cornyn.

That has not only not happened, but Donald Trump told reporters recently that he likes all of them, which is about the last thing that Republicans want right now is uncertainty going into this early voting period. I think for Democrats, there's a debate over to Al Rico, Rico and Jasmin Crockett that has its own contours and dynamics. But I think it really depends on whether you still have money. Going to Texas will depend on who wins that Republican vote.

It's an interesting place for Republicans to be right at least because as we state Democrats always think they've got a shot in Texas and they never win. But it's actually John Cornyn making that case right now. Does he have a case that Democrats could actually win if he's not the nominee? Yeah, that's tough to say.

I mean, one thing to keep in mind too is another Abbott is gonna be on the ballot as well. I think a lot of people haven't talked about that much, but he's gonna carry the state by probably 8 to 9 points. So it's difficult for me to see any Republican, whether that's John Cornyn or Ken Paxton, run that far behind a Abbott. You know, I understand the argument that Cornyn is making.

I think Paxton is clearly much, you know, had a lot more baggage associated with him. And I think that they're right to point out that he's going to get dragged through the mud and make it much more difficult. And it's right to say that Cornyn is going to have a lot more funding and probably appeal to a more independent minded voter in Texas. But I think Republicans generally feel like either Ken Paxton or John Cornyn both have a decent shot despite, you know, the races looking quite different than when we get past the project.

Antoine, Dan Thompson and I were talking about the messy Republican primary, but the Democrats have a pretty messy primary of their own between James Talrico and Jasmine Crockett. What do you think will be the deciding factor on the Democratic side? Is it a similar argument to what the Republicans are making about electability? As simple as it sounds, it's going to be all about turnout.

It's all about turf and turnout. Who can gain the most turf in Texas, a very big state. Black and brown voters are going to make up the majority of the turnout. And who can actually turn out their specific coalition of voters?

I think both Crockett and Puerto Rico bring their own set of experiences and own set of consistency to the table. And so who's going to be able to turn out there based on during the cycle is going to be key. But let me push back on something Dan said. I think Texas is fertile ground.

I think Democrats have been laying the groundwork for some time now to have a big upset in Texas because everything is big in Texas. I also want to remind folks that we want a state Senate seat that no one expected Democrats to win. We've outperformed the narrative every single step along the way since Donald Trump has taken office. I think this year may be a tremendous Opportunity for us to do that.

In Texas, if you look at registration, you look at population trends, you look at some of the things that have been going our way, I think there's protection potential to do something unthinkable in Texas. Not to mention politics is a game of matchups. And if the nominee on the Republican side is limping into a general election politically wounded, that gives demonstration for Democrats though, as well. Is there a candidate that performs better in your mind in the general election than another?

No, because the key is ought to be putting together a broad coalition, including your opponents, voters, in order to be united around a common cause. The common cause is defeating Republicans in November. And we have worked for Republicans who get different. They do.

I think Republicans would rather face Crockett and rather than tell Rico. But, you know, I think that it's going to be, it is going to be a messy race. I do think that, you know, you're referencing a special election that recently happened that was quite an upset for Republicans. I think Republicans should take that seriously.

There's also the shift that we talked about before with Hispanic voters in particular that really turned out for Donald Trump in the election they don't really come to when it's not presidential cycle. You don't really see those folks coming out and voting for Republicans in the same way. So I think that's something at that point. Every major issue that has been successful for Republicans in a state like Texas, Republicans are upside down on whether it's immigration, the economy, magnolomics have been a failure.

Immigration has been a failure. You name it, they've been up there upside down on the issue. So issues do matter in campaigns. Let's take a little bit of a turn now.

Talk about Bruce Springsteen. He's going to start a tour in Minneapolis which is by design next month. It's an end in Washington, D.C. describes it in defense of America.

And he specifically criticized President Trump. He released a song, of course, about the killings of Renegot and Alex Preddy. Again, is this a sign of how you see popular musicians and engineers getting involved in politics? And it's also an example of how immigration is going to be a big part of what plays out in the internal election.

Full disclosure here. I am a massive Bruce Springsteen fan. My wife walked, my wife walk down the aisle to the Springsteen like, you know, fertile ground for me. It is a sign of who Bruce Springsteen is an artist.

I think that it's become rarer for artists to write songs kind of in the moment that we're in. And he has done that. Bruce Springstring has done that. And I think that he is.

It's pulling back from the 1960s, 1970s folk movement, but you can expect a very political tour. He's not shy about it. He's really shy about politics. Born in the usa While an anthem to America and often played kind of a patriarch, Tone is a protest song.

So I would imagine that that's going to be kind of the tone and tenor of this tour because that's who Bruce Springsteen is as an artist. And we know that Donald Trump likes to respond to big artists who criticize him. So you can expect a kind of a give and take throughout the tour, I would imagine, between Bruce Springsteen and president. Anyways, I remember 2008 covering Bruce Springsteen 16, doing a free concert in support of Barack Obama and going into the crowd and there are a lot of Republicans there and a lot of them said to me, I really care about what politics.

Can you separate those two things? Will Republicans separate those two things? And will he potentially win over any Republicans with this message? Yeah, I mean, sure, I think some Republicans can separate those two things and we'll still be fans.

But he's clearly making a statement by where he's starting, starting in Minneapolis and coming all the way to D.C. so I think that's certainly a strong, powerful statement on where he stands and the message that he's trying to send. I don't think that will stop some Republicans from, you know, going to see him and enjoying his music. And he said, intentionally announced that everyone's welcome.

And the song that the tour is named after is Laying of Hoop and Dreams, which is a song about inclusivity, bringing people together. Everyone is welcome. And I think that will also be the message of the tour. Sports and music tend to bring unique coalitions bring together and so I think this is just one example.

But I also think this is laying the ground groundwork for other artists or those who have platforms to raise their heads and raise their hands and raise their voices around issues that will impact the future of this country. We all know America's a nation and the icu and it's going to take everyday people doing extraordinary deeds like this in order to bring us out of the ICU that we find ourselves in. Okay, Dan, Antoine, Elise, thank you all for being appreciated. He is very excited to be still to come.

We're live at the site of one of the world's worker, one of the worst sewage disasters in US history. Not too far away I sit right now is the fighter who's responsible for cleaning it up is spilling international politics. We'll dive into that story next on THE PRESS now. Welcome.

Welcome back. We're gonna turn now to a stinky situation just outside the nation's capital where a major draw sewage in the Potomac river has now been flowing for over a month after a sewer line in Montgomery County, Maryland, collapsed on January 19, stumping more than 200 million gallons of wastewater into the river. The water is so contaminated right now, experts are telling people to not even get close to it. The spill now sparking a political back and forth between President Trump and local leaders, with President Trump accusing local officials of mishandling infrastructure and waste management systems and calling out Maryland Governor Westmore by name.

Moments ago, the White House putting out an updated statement saying in part, President Trump may be forced to step in and fix this disaster. Joining me for more on what the control room is telling me is an actual stinky live shot is the great Mark Seagray from our NBC Washington station. Mark, thank you for taking one for the team here to be out there by the side of this spill. I understand that it does not smell very great, but it's also quite the mess.

What's the latest on the cleanup efforts there and the ongoing threats in the community nearby? Yeah, well, as you said, this started on January 19th. And since January 19th, more than 243 million gallons of raw sewage and wastewater has made its way into the Potomac River. If you look over my shoulder, this is part of the workaround.

So that height that you see pumping that water right there, that is sewage. That is raw sewage, wastewater that has been pumped out of the broken pipe into the C and O Canal here at a rate of about 40 million gallons a day. The good news about this is that this engineering workaround that DC Water, the local utility company has come up with is they broke into the pipe, the underground pipe that they put these pumps in place to pump the sewage out before it gets to the break. They were fortunate that the C and O Canal, which is here in this national parkland here that runs along the Potomac river, was empty.

So they pumped the sewage into the canal. It is going downstream about half a mile to Flumes, where it is then pumped back into the pipe underground below where the break is. So that is the temporary fix. And the good news about that is it has kept the sewage from going into the Potomac River.

And so that is, you know, you do have to give DC Water some high marks for this engineering feed that they did through the blizzard. They did all of this work and got this done in no short order. And it was working pretty well until Super Bowl Sunday when everybody decided it half time to flush their wipes down the toilet and it clogged the pumps up, the pumps failed and an additional 600,000 gallons went back into the Potomac River. So it's still a tenuous situation.

You mentioned the smell here. I can tell you not only is the smell enough to gag you, but if you hear long enough talking and open your mouth, you start to taste it, you start to gag after a while. It is an absolute environmental disaster. The Potomac river has tested positive not only extremely high levels for E.

Coli, but also for staff and the antibacterial resistant form of staph known as mrsa. So all of that has been going into the river. They haven't even started to talk about the cleanup. It's going to be at least another four to six weeks before the pipe is fixed and there's no more sewage going through this canal.

Oh, Mark, you're living it, but I'm feeling it by your descriptive explanation as to what's going on out there. We so appreciate you being out there and hopefully this is going to be rectified sooner rather than later. Mark, see Grace, thank you so much. And we are going to be back tomorrow with more be Depressed now.

But there's plenty news ahead right here on NBC News now. Thanks so much for watching. Have a great day. As the day wraps up, get the scoop on what's been happening with here's the Scoop, the podcast for NBC News with me, your host, Jasmine Masugian.

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