Meet the Press NOW — February 24

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Welcome to Meet the Press Now, I'm Kristen Welker in Washington, and we are just hours away from President Trump's State of the Union address the first of his second term. At the White House this afternoon, President Trump told me and a group of anchors gathered for the traditional pre-state of the Union lunch that he will argue the country is about to have the best three years economically in the nation's history, and that it's already started. Even as polling shows, voters have grown increasingly frustrated with his agenda and the direction of the country. A senior administration official telling NBC News, the president tonight will also unveil new measures to improve affordability.

Here's White House press secretary, Caroline Lovett. The president will lay out the case for why he and Republicans are better suited to tackle continue tackling the affordability crisis that was created by the Biden administration and Democrats on Capitol Hill. And over the past year, there has been tremendous progress to move the ball forward toward attaining the level of economic prosperity we had under President Trump's first term. The president's address tonight coming as his approval rating is underwater by double digits, and as more voters say the economy has gotten worse since he took office last year.

Adding to the urgency tonight, the threat that his party could lose control of Congress in the upcoming midterms with primary voting already underway in key contests. Today, Republicans urging the president to maintain focus on an upbeat message that they can run on. I expect it'll be a positive affirming statement about all the things that we have accomplished together and all the plans we have going forward. That's all the good news.

The last year's been a great year for President Trump, his leadership around the world, his leadership economically, the big, beautiful bill, the tax guys were working-class families, no taxes on tips, no taxes on overtiming. I'm here on optimistic, forward-looking vision for the country. I think there's a positive thing that's been going on in this country. We shut the border down.

Murder has gone down, even in my own state. I think the economy's turned around. I think the price of gasoline's down. Implation's down.

One big question on everyone's minds this evening. What will the president say about Iran? With the senior administration official telling NBC News a portion of the speech will be devoted to foreign policy. Today, his Secretary of State Marco Rubio breathing the bipartisan gang of aid on the issue with another round of nuclear talks set for later this week as the administration weighs potential military action and warns Tehran could be just days away from producing nuclear bomb-making material.

Joining me now from the White House is Monica Alba. Mel Zenona is on Capitol Hill, and Brian Shung has a look at the state of the economy ahead of tonight's big speech. Monica, let me start with you where the final touches are being put on that speech. We know that the economy will be a significant portion tonight.

The president telling myself and a group of reporters he's going to advocate for more tax cuts. What else are you hearing about what the president's going to announce? Well, it sounds like, Kristen, something that the president has teased before might actually be unveiled and talked about tonight in the speech, which is this idea that tech companies, AI companies, need to pay for electricity costs that are going up around the construction of data centers. Since Americans are footing that bill, that could be something that could help to alleviate that concern for some.

But this, of course, speaks to the major overall concern that this White House is confronting, which is that Americans are not satisfied with the president's performance when it comes to the economy, his signature issue. And I think you can hear the president in this speech tonight likely lay out a defense of why he feels, people should feel better than they actually do. And if that sounds like deja vu, it's because we know that in the last administration, that was a very vexing issue for them as well. So this White House is trying to figure out how to wrap their arms around that.

And it sounds like that could be in the way of additional economic proposals. Overall, we know that the theme of the speech tonight is America's 250th birthday, that it is strong, that it is prosperous, and that it is respected according to White House officials, Kristen. And Monica, I think you touch on a key point in talking to some Republicans. They say that they want the president to paint a picture of what he perceives to be his biggest accomplishments on the economy, the path forward, but also to express to Americans, he understands that there is still work to be done.

As we know, during former president Biden's administration, as you noted, the president tried to argue that the economy was getting better, even though people didn't necessarily feel that way. How will president Trump address that problem tonight? And candidate Donald Trump really seized on that. He talked about that all the time on his way to this second term.

So yes, now he is here, he is the president. He says this is the Trump economy, that he owns it. But he has also signaled to people that maybe they need to be a little bit patient, maybe they need to wait to feel the full benefits. But of course, the backdrop and a major concern to all of this is what happens now with the economy, with that major blow to his tariff policy that we know the president is really, really frustrated over.

And we know that he is likely going to address that and how much he actually goes into and addresses specifically the Supreme Court justices who delivered that major setback to his policy is unclear, but I know that's something we're all going to be watching for tonight as well. Absolutely Monica, tell us who are we anticipating the president and first ladies guests will be tonight? Well, we're still getting the complete list, but we do know that Erica Kirk, who is the widow of Charlie Kirk, who was assassinated last year while speaking at a turning point event on a college campus in Utah, she will be there. She has taken on the reigns of that organization.

And she has appeared with the president several times since then over the last couple of months. So she is expected to be there in addition to, we understand, some members of the US men's hockey team are fresh off their gold medal winning game, defeating Canada in the Winter Olympics. Just a couple of days ago, they basically went from Milan to Miami and then now here to Washington, DC. They did travel on a government plane and are at the White House as we speak, getting a tour, meeting with the president and meeting with other senior government officials and top White House aides.

And then again, we expect them to be somehow in the chamber tonight. As you saw, there's about 20 of them. It's unclear exactly how that's going to work logistically, but it does seem there will be a moment in the evening that is dedicated to them and congratulating them. Kristin.

Well, we will be watching for those optics, certainly. Monica Alba, starting us off. Thank you so much. Monica, Melzano, let me go to you on Capitol Hill.

Set the scene for us. What are Republicans saying to you? What do they want to hear tonight from the president's big speech? Well, they really want to hear about affordability.

And the concern among Republicans is that Trump will either go off message or that his personal vendetta, as he tends to point out, it's on these speeches might overshadow that message because Republicans are the one who are ultimately going to be on the ballot this November. And just in my conversations with Republicans, Kristin, there's a lot of frustration that Moore has not been done to sold the so-called Big Beautiful Bill, which is that big tax cut package that they passed last summer. And so they really want Trump to hit that hard tonight, especially ahead of tax filing season when they are expecting bigger refunds for Americans. So they want Republicans to be able to take credit for that.

But they also want Trump to, as you and Monica, we're talking about acknowledge these still very real concerns of Americans and outlined a very clear path for how they plan to address the cost of living. Well, Mel, we also know that about three dozen Democrats are not planning to attend the speech. What is Democratic leadership saying? And put this into context that we're looking at potentially empty seats, right?

Yeah. So there are people that skipped the state the union every year on both sides of the aisle. But I will say, it does seem to be a bigger trend this year. And I do think it'll probably be more than 35 members.

That's just the numbers that we know about at this moment. And a large part of that is because the Democratic leadership really told their members, hey, if you're going to be here in in attendance tonight, you must sit there in a silent protest. You should not be disruptive. You should not have any outbursts.

I think there is some acknowledgment that some of the outbursts we saw last year were not particularly helpful to the Democratic message. They want Trump to be in the spotlight, not their own antics. And so instead, a lot of Democrats are boycotting, and they're going to be attending some counter-programming that's taking place on the national mall. So we're expecting a pretty sizable presence of Democrats there instead of the state of the union tonight.

And Governor Abigail Spanberger will be delivering the Democratic response. Of course, she won a victory in Virginia campaigning on a message of affordability. What are we anticipating that we'll hear from her? That's right.

She is a centrist. She's pragmatic. She is not a bow and thrower. And if her speech tonight is anything like her campaign for governor, it will be a huge focus on affordability and really only talking about President Trump in the context of his policies, as opposed to throwing daggers at him personally.

And Democrats chose her specifically, not just because she was able to flip a red seat to blue when she ran in the house. She ran the successful campaign for governor last November. But they really see her as the model for how Democrats came back power this November. All right, Melz and I know it is a busy night for you.

Thank you so much. Really appreciate you joining us. Brian Chung, let me head over to you. Let's talk about the pitch that the president's going to make on the economy.

It comes just days after the Supreme Court ruled against his tariff authority. Break it down for us. What do you anticipate will hear from him on this? Yeah, Chris, and as you and Tom reported for us, he is expected to talk heavily about the economy, and maybe even unveil some policies designed to address that.

But let's first talk about the big thing looming over all of this, which is, of course, the tariffs. It was just last week that the Supreme Court struck down the president's so-called emergency authority to impose these country-specific tariffs and also these fentanyl-specific tariffs on countries like China as well as Mexico and Canada. Obviously, the story of this first year of this president's second term has been ratcheting tariff rates, higher to levels that we have not seen since the Great Depression. This is his economic cornerstone policy, again, struck down by the Supreme Court.

This chart that you see ahead of you comes from the Yale Budget Lab and shows the effective tariff rates prior to the Supreme Court decision. But interestingly, after that decision, the president said, well, I'm just going to pursue other avenues to stand those tariffs up and use what they call section 122 to stand up a 10% tariff that took effect midnight coming into today. So for that reason, now you have some estimates saying the effect of tariff rate with that new tariff is actually about the same as it is right now. So the story for the economy, at least with regards to tariff, is going to remain kind of largely as it has even prior to the Supreme Court, which is that the president using different avenues is going to make sure that remains a part of his economic policy.

And Brian, give us a reality check because the president telling us that this lunch today, he's going to argue that the next three years will be the best economically in the nation's history and he'll also argue it has already begun. How is the economy compared to what we've seen in the past several months? Yeah, and the president's commentary that the next three years are going to be where we see a lot of that might suggest that there's still a lot of work to be done, at least from the numbers that we're seeing so far, and that is corroborated by some of these cost of living measurements that we've been watching. When you take a look at things like electricity, auto insurance, housing, groceries, over the last year, again, the president's first year under his second term, all of those costs have gone up.

The one area where costs have gone down is in gas prices where that's down almost 70%. That's obviously, of course, good news for Americans. I can use that savings to spend on other things. Now, of course, when we talk about other things, the overall picture, if you zoom out, real GDP, the measure of economic growth, 2.2%, that's how much the economy grew in 2025.

That's basically in line with what we had seen if you exclude, of course, the very unusual years of the pandemic and then the reopening after 2.2%, I think by most standards economists say, not all that bad, especially we consider a lot of those headlines that we saw around tariffs. And one last thing I want to point out here, we talked about prices, we talked about economic growth, we've talked about affordability, but jobs. That's really what it's all about, the president promising a manufacturing renaissance. We're not seeing that quite yet.

180,000 jobs, that's how much we're adding in 2025. That was the slowest case that you had seen outside of a non-recession year, Kristen, since 2003. That's something the president's gonna have to address in the messaging tonight. All right, the backdrop to tonight's state of the union address.

Brian, thank you so much for that, really appreciate it. Joining me now is Republican Senator Mark Wayne Mullen of Oklahoma. Senator Mullen, thank you so much for being here. Really appreciate it, big night.

It is, it's like our politics Super Bowl Sunday, right? It sure is, so set the stage, set the field for us. What do you want to hear from President Trump tonight? What do you think would be a win for him and Republicans?

Well, I think you can take a victory lap on where we're moving as a country. I mean, we start talking about the border, right? President Joe Biden went out and said he needed a Congress to secure the border, the border is completely secure. We've had months, we've had zero illegal releases inside the country.

He can start talking about the economy, the economy's the on track, it's moving in the right direction. We are creating jobs, we're on short manufacturing, trillions and trillions of dollars has been guaranteed to invest and bring back those manufacturing jobs. You know, for too long, we have off short manufacturing and we have built a middle class in other countries while we've lost our middle class, bringing that on is a national security issue that we're going to be able to right the wrong, meaning that we're going to start building things here in the United States again. Start talking about how much more secure we are in our streets.

He said he was going to bring long order back to our streets. You've seen it right here in DC, you walked around the streets, how much safer the streets are in Washington DC and other cities that are cooperating with law enforcement. So I think there's a plenty to talk about of what we have accomplished. You talk about the one big, beautiful bill, the largest tax cut in American history in families.

I mean, just think about this, families that are making $73,000 in below with a family of four will play zero in federal income tax. That's huge. We start talking about farmers and manufacturing companies and small businesses. And then the president can draw the picture of where we're moving in the next three years.

He's ushering in the Golden Ages, we've just begun. And this, you know, the economy's not going to be fixed overnight, but during the next three years, we're going to continue to move in the right direction. I think the president's going to share that. But let me ask you, because if you ask Americans, and this goes back to the conversation we're having, if you look at the polling, the president's under water in his handling of this talk issue, of the economy, which is the issue that he will spend a lot of time focused on tonight.

You see this here, negative 27% on inflation, tariffs, 11% on the economy. Overall, do you think the president needs to express to Americans that he understands that they aren't feeling the effects of an improved economy? I think he will say that. But also, as you know, polling can say whatever they want to.

I mean, right before the election, the NBC poll had a dead heat between him and Kamala Harrison, yet the president won a primary vote and the electoral college overwhelming. You also saw a report right there that said housing cost is up. But the report that just came out yesterday from the economist said that actually we're seeing reduction in pricing right now. And so polling is one thing, but expressing what the American people feel is vitally important.

And I believe the president will be able to draw the picture of what has begun. And I mean, what's happened in the last 12 months and where the country will be going in the next three years? Think about the stock market. I mean, no one thought it would hit 50,000 and it hit.

So people are optimistic. You think he will express some empathy for what Americans are feeling? Well, the president is a businessman. He's not a politician.

And he understands economy is good as anybody. What does he want to say? He's not a term president. I think he can characterize the poll.

Well, he's been in office for five years. Chuck Schumer has been in office since before I was born. And so I don't know exactly what the president said. And I purposely did not ask him or anybody in the White House because I don't want to make use of licking the speech.

But I do believe that the president is going to paint a picture of what we've done and where we're going. Let me ask you about tariffs. He's going to be delivering this speech in front of not just Congress but members of the Supreme Court. I don't have to tell you that.

We'll be listening very closely and hanging on his every word as it relates to the justices who ruled against him. But let me put a question to you that has been asked after the president. Why does he not just go to Congress? Do you think he should?

That is what the Supreme Court will effect. Well, that's the question about getting rid of the filibuster. Congress is incapable of acting right now. I mean, we're polarized.

And every time we change the filibuster, we've done it because the Congress was incapable of moving. We did it in 1807, 1917, 1975. Each time we changed the threshold of what it took to get things done for the American people. So when you talk about the tariffs, the court did it actually somewhat of a favor.

If you want to think about it, because there were so many questions of what the president can and can't do. What they said is that he can't use the Emergency Economic Powers Act, International Economic Powers Act. But they didn't say anything about national security tariffs. They didn't say they didn't.

They left silence really when it starts to talk about licensing. There's a section 122, I think it was quoted. So there is opportunities for the president to continue to move forward and force countries to quit taking advantage. I say force countries to start writing the wrong and taking quit taking advantage of the United States generosity when it comes to our economy.

Well, no, Justice Gorsuch, who the president, of course, did nominate just for folks who were watching. He wrote, quote, Americans fought the revolution in no small part because they believed that only their elected representatives, not the king, not even parliament, possessed authority to tax them. I understand what you're saying. There is a lot of good luck in Congress.

No one would debate that. But even though it's hard, does that not mean the president should not follow the... Well, I'm not saying that when the president, or when the Congress isn't capable of moving, then what the court did is they actually provided clarification. What they were saying is the Economic Emergency Powers Act falls within Congress's authority.

National Security, the ability for the president to look at from the national security perspective or to be looking towards other avenues does fall within the commander-in-chief and the CEO of our country, which is the president of the United States. And I think they're right. I think the three justices that came out and said that the president should have the authority to do this. I think they're absolutely correct.

Because if Congress is going to be silent on this to some degree, then, and we've allowed other presidents to have the authority to move and negotiate with countries in the past, where does that limitation begin? And where does that limitation end? And I think the court provided clarity on that. Let me ask you about foreign policy, Iran, obviously, in focus as President Trump wins, whether to launch a military strike there, potentially a prolonged military campaign, Senator Lindsey Graham urging the president to take military action, saying he believes this is an opportunity to, quote, bring about historic change.

Do you believe that the president should take military action against Iran? Do you agree with Lindsey Graham? Well, I think maybe Lindsey and I may look at this from two different angles. I am not interested in reaching change.

And I don't believe the president is either. We're talking about stability. Can you imagine Iran, the number one world sponsor of terror, gain a nuclear weapon. They would destabilize that entire region.

Think about the OPEC oil, just a volatility of oil itself, how much that affects the world economy. When they're able to control the shipping lanes where the majority of the world's oil ships in and out of is absolutely scary. And if they have a nuclear weapon, and they would destabilize that entire area, the president, if the president was interested in regime change, we could have done that in a 12-day war. You remember, the president came out very openly and said, we know where you're at, speaking specifically to the Ayatollah.

We know where you're at, but we're choosing not to take you out. What we are hoping is that the Ayatollah would come to sense. I mean, the Ayatollah is 86 years old or 87 years old. He could be gone tomorrow.

We were hoping that he would just come to a sense and say, we're not going to pursue the nuclear dream that we have. The truth is they're not. And they continue to build that nuclear program. So if taking out the Ayatollah is part of it, then we will.

But we will never allow Iran to become a nuclear country, ever, full stop period. And we know that those talks on Thursday are going to be critical. We'll be listening closely to the president and have to say that Iran and every other foreign policy issue. Senator Mullen, thank you so much for being here.

Thank you for having me. Really appreciate it coming up. We just got the view from a Republican senator. We'll turn to the other side of the aisle as some Democrats prepare to skip tonight's address in protest of the Trump administration.

One of those Democratic senators joins me straight ahead. But first, the state of the president and his party, Steve Bernanke, is at the big board tracking the latest polling and what it all means ahead of tonight's address. And ahead of the midterms as well, when we come back, this is Meet the Press Now. Welcome back on top of selling Americans on his foreign policy wins, the president and his address tonight.

We'll have to sell voters on the overall results of his presidency with the midterms fast approaching. Chief data analyst, Steve Bernanke, is tracking the numbers for us. And he joins me now. Steve, great to have you here as we gear up for the State of the Union.

So break this down. Where does the president stand ahead of tonight's address? Yeah, Chris, in a few hours from tonight's address. And of course, the countdown on to November.

Well, we're Donald Trump stands when it comes to public opinion. It's deja vu all over again as the saying goes. Take a look right now. And the average of all of the polls that are out there right now.

There have been a whole bunch of new ones in the run up to the speech tonight. A 40% job approval rating, majority disapproval for Trump. At the same point in 2018, back in his first term, heading into that midterm year, his average approval rating was 40% with a majority disapproval rating, too. Take a look, too, at the state of his party.

The Republican Party versus the Democrats on the generic ballot are always asking this question. Which party do you want to see control Congress right now? The Democrats, on average, with a five point advantage over the Republicans on the generic ballot. That is a little bit less.

It was seven at this point in 2018, five right now. But in both cases, clear leads for the Democrats in the generic ballot trumps. First term, and now his political position, Kristen, looks an awful lot like it did eight years ago to the day. Well, and that takes me to my next question.

What is the history show us about what this could all mean for Republicans keeping in control of Congress in November? Yeah, broaden this out. We say Trump's numbers now look like they did in his first term. They also look like pretty much every modern president now going back two decades at this point, heading into the midterm year.

Again, we just showed you Trump at 40%. We showed you Trump 40% in his first term. Joe Biden in 2022, at this point, 41% approval. Obama was 43% in 2014, 45% in 2010.

George W. Bush was down in the mid 30s and 2006. But Trump's numbers really right in the middle of that range right there we see with modern presidents. And what happened with all of them?

They all lost seats. They all saw their party lose control of at least one chamber in those midterm elections. Some of these, you know, Trump's 40-point loss in 2018, Obama's 63 and 2010. Some of these were very, very deep losses.

If there's one solace that the Republicans can maybe take from this, it would ironically enough be from Joe Biden, the Democratic president. Biden had that approval rating four years ago. It's almost identical to Trump's right now. Biden had very low marks on the economy.

His party controlled the House. And for all of that, they only lost nine seats. Democrats only lost nine seats in 2022. That was enough still for them to lose control of the House.

If Republicans were to lose nine now, they too would lose control of the House. But the floor didn't fall out for Democrats in 2022. They did have a fighting chance for Republicans. If you said right now, if you told them you have a fighting chance to keep your House majority, I think they would take that right now, given all of the other conditions we're describing.

Absolutely. And given how tight the margins are, Steve Kornacke, thanks for setting up what will be the backdrop to tonight's address. We really appreciate it. Well, as we mentioned, Secretary of State Marco Rubio is briefing a select group of congressional leaders this afternoon amid escalating tensions between the US and Iran.

Today, during the President's annual State of the Union lunch with anchors, President Trump told me and the other anchors there, quote, Iran wants to make a deal more than I do. But they just won't say the sacred phrase. We won't build nuclear weapons. It comes as the US as a massing military hardware, bolstering defenses in the Middle East, and threatening a potential strike on Iran if it doesn't halt its nuclear program.

Joining me now is Chief Washington and Chief Foreign Affairs correspondent Andrea Mitchell. Andrea, thank you so much for being here. Good to be with you. It's a big day.

It's a big day. And we know that foreign policy is going to be one of the big topics that the President addresses. And you and I are going to be listening very closely for what he has to say about Iran. What are you going to be watching for?

I think the world is going to be listening closely for what he has to say. Right now, Marco Rubio is briefing what we call the gang of eight. They are the leaders of both Republican and Democrats in the House and Senate in the key committees, armed services, and intelligence. And it's significant because they have not briefed Congress, not before Venezuela, not before other strikes, not before the previous Iran strike back in June.

So this time, they are taking that step. And they've always argued they don't have to, under the War Powers Act, and that is certainly debatable. The Democrats in Congress say they should. So it's interesting that he's briefing them, especially because Marco Rubio and others in the administration have said we didn't brief them because they always leak.

Well, these eight leaders have never leaked over decades. You've covered them, I've covered them. That doesn't happen. But what's really significant is that they've got this, you know, Armada, two carrier groups.

They're spending a million dollars plus just keeping that weaponry there. And so the thinking in the region, and I talk to a lot of Arab leaders, Israeli leaders, is you don't build up that much without doing something because otherwise you appear weak. Well, Andrea, talk a little bit, and you're right, we don't anticipate leaks, but based on your conversations heading into this briefing today, what types of concerns are you appearing from Democrats and Republicans about the possibility that the threat of a potential protracted US military engagement if the United States were to take some type of action? Well, I think the argument against it is this is not Venezuela, one and done.

They don't have exquisite intelligence on the whereabouts as they did of Maduro, and they had help from the inside. We do not believe they have inside information, and in fact, some of the allies who all have embassies and intelligence services on the ground in Tehran are European closest allies. Tell me that they have not been consulted for help. They have better knowledge about what's going on with the IRGC, the military wing, and the people who crack down and killed tens of thousands, we believe, of Iranians.

So what is the mission? Is it a big mission? Is it a strike to get the missiles and the launchers, which is what Israel and the Arab countries want to try to reduce the possibility of retaliation against them and against 30,000 to 40,000 American troops in the region? Or is it regime change?

That's protracted. This is 89 million people. This is bigger than Iraq, better armed than Iraq. It's an old military.

They are at their weakest ever because of all of the Israeli strikes and the US strikes, not only the nuclear strikes, but the Israeli takedowns of the leaders of Hezbollah and Hamas and others. But still, they're powerful. They've cut missiles, and they can do a lot of damage in the region, that's the concern. And I think your point about just how different the situation this would be than Venezuela must mean.

When you're very large, as they have these sensitive talks. Andrea, thank you so much. Great to see you. We'll see you now.

Watch your analysis throughout the day of the evening. And we will have more of the standard of the evening coverage tonight right here under the press now. And all night long, I'll be doing my colleagues Peter Alexander, Tom Giannis, Hallie Jackson, and Steve Kornacke throughout the evening. You do not want to miss it.

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It's more context and clarity from the reporters you trust. Download the NBC News app now and subscribe for more. My fellow Americans, every time I prepare for the State of the Union, I approach it with hope and expectation and excitement for our nation. But tonight is very special because we stand on the mountaintop of a new millennium.

Behind us, we can look back and see the greatest fans of American achievement. And before us, we can see even greater grander frontiers of possibility. Well, the back, that was former President Bill Clinton's 2000 state of the Union address, which was the longest ever speech to Congress. That is, until last year when President Trump's joint address to Congress ran for almost an hour and 40 minutes.

Besting that, Clinton's speech by just over 10 minutes. And yesterday, President Trump hinted that tonight could be another long one, saying, quote, we have so much to talk about. So we will be ready. And the panel is ready for all of it as well.

And now, Mariana, so to my congressional reporter, the Washington Post, Adrian Elrod, former senior advisor to the Harris Wells campaign, and Michael Dubke, former White House communications director during President Trump's first term. Thanks to all of you for being here on the big state of the Union Day. Mariana, let me start with you. What are you going to be watching for tonight, except the stakes for us?

I mean, there's so many things I'm going to be watching. First and foremost, of course, how long is Trump going to be speaking? I think we all have to buckle up for a long night. But one of the first things that I've been hearing from Republicans on Capitol Hill is they really want him to stay focused on the economy, talk about what the one big, beautiful bill does.

Because the public doesn't really know a lot of the benefits that Republicans have been touting for this time. One thing I think that kind of encompasses the big picture thing that I'm watching is tariffs. How strongly is Trump going to go after Republicans? Potentially even the Supreme Court, the justices are going to be right there about that tariff decision.

Is he going to be asking congressional Republicans, please codify my tariffs, which you ask any of those swing districts, Republicans, and also Republicans if any of their seats in the Senate, they don't want to do that. They do not want to be voting on anything related that could be incredibly difficult for them in the midterm. So those are kind of the top things I watch. There's many others.

But I think you're right. The economy is going to be front and center. Like, I mean, I mean, and it turns a tone. What do you think the president needs to do?

I think it needs to be more about where we're going than where we've been. I don't want him to make the mistake on the economy that Joe Biden made about talking how great everything is. And then, you know, people don't feel that. He's already done that.

Well, I know, today, that's what State of the Union addresses are for, resetting the agenda, resetting the dialogue. We're going into the midterm elections. This is an opportunity for him to do it. The problem always for Donald Trump is we give him every day.

This isn't a special event. I loved, you know, Bill Clinton biting his lower lip. That was a perfect stop that you had. But that was like one speech and you didn't see the guy.

You see Trump every day. Adrian, these speeches are and can be resets. Obviously, Democrats are fighting to take back Congress. What will you be watching for and what, from your perspective, would put Democrats in a defensive position when you wake up tomorrow?

Honestly, Kristen, I'm not sure what he can say that would put us in a defensive position. I mean, you showed it in the previous block, as approval numbers are very low right now. I think he had, this is certainly that states are much higher for him than they are for Democrats to, you know, beyond defense tomorrow morning. I do want to understand what he's going to say about the economy.

He ran on the economy. He wanted the election on the economy. And the economy's only gotten worse since Donald Trump has been president. So, you know, I think if he's going to have a chance of holding on to the Senate, holding on to the House, you know, saving some of these very close races, he's going to have to really make that case to the American people.

Also, of course, his terror strategy. You're mentioning a lot of these swing Republicans and swing districts want to at least have maybe one little tid that he can say tonight that they can hang their head on. But Americans are confused as to his terror policy. And it's only driven the cost up for them.

So, you know, if I were him, I would use what the Supreme Court did last week on tariffs and use that as an offering. I'd say, look, I tried. This is something I've been thinking about for a long time. I tried it and it didn't work.

And refocus his economic message on jobs and making things more affordable, that something tells me he's not going to do that. Then he tells me he's not going to announce an offering. On tariffs, he's announcing he wants to impose more of them. Guys, hold on for a minute.

I'm going to hit the pause button because I do want to bring in Democratic Senator Ruben Gaiago of Arizona, who's one of more than three dozen Democrats who will not be in attendance for tonight's State of the Union Address. Senator, thanks so much for joining us. Really appreciate it. Of course.

Thank you, Senator. So, talk to me about what's behind this decision because we know that leadership has said, look, if you are going to be in the chamber, please listen, follow decorum. Why did you decide not to be there at all tonight? Well, because the State of the Union speech is actually not going to be the State of the Union.

It's going to be a speech full of lies and excuses. And I'd rather spend that time with my family. I have three young kids. I'd rather do product things for my community.

This president does not know how to talk about the country, does not know how to fight for the country. He doesn't really know how to fight for himself. And we see this all the time. Instead of actually taking the out when it came to the tariff decision by Supreme Court, he's going to double down.

What does that mean for the Americans? You're talking about an extra thousand, two hundred dollars. We've already paid a thousand, two thousand, two dollars. None of them are getting their refunds.

The big corporations will eventually get their refunds. What Americans are going to hurt, and all he wants to do is just double down. If you are hurting, people feel it every day. This country is sick or important, because every decision that President Trump has made, and he's only going to continue pushing that.

This whole massive, massive deportation plan that is now racially profiling Americans, detaining them to improve their citizenship, killing Americans citizens in the streets of our country was all paid for on the backs of cutting Medicaid for millions and millions of Americans. He's not going to talk about solutions to that. He's not going to talk about solutions about how to stop the chaos that he moved from the border, not to the chaos into our communities. He will talk about excuses.

He will talk about grievances. But he will not talk about where this country needs to go. And that's where Americans really need to be hearing right now. Well, Senator Mark Kelly of Arizona has a slightly different take than you.

I want to play what he said about why he is attending tonight's address and get your reaction on the other side. Take a listen. This guy thought I would be in jail, maybe right now. He wants to send me a prison.

I'm going to continue to do my job, and I'm going to be sitting there right in front of him. And maybe he'll notice, maybe not. But I feel it's my obligation to be there. What do you make of that argument that as a sitting Senator, you just have an obligation to be there, whether you like the president or disagree with every single thing he says as you are laying out?

Well, listen, this is the difference between me and Mark. He is a pilot. I'm a Marine. That man will be in a cockpit, and both engines will be going down.

He's going to land that plane, right? I'm a Marine. I know when to get in, when I get out. And sometimes I know there's some very futile fights.

I respect Mark's decision. I'm sure he respects mine. We have better things to do at time. And we're going to basically hear the same message.

A message of our president does not care about this country. He's using the country to basically enrich themselves. And we're all becoming poorer because of it. And this day, the Union speech, whether you're there or not, is not going to change that trajectory.

Let me ask you because last year Democrats were open to the criticism that the protests that they enacted seemed to be in disarray. Everyone was doing something a little bit different. Do you run the risk of that again this year, giving that some Democrats are going to be attending rallies? Others will simply be boycotting the speech.

Some might walk out in the middle of the speech. Are you concerned about that? No, that's a bunch of insider baseball talking about a bunch of us people here in D.C. and the talking heads.

What you will be hearing is about Americans that still, no matter what comes from the speech, are going to have to pay higher costs for groceries, for example, for tariffs that are not just costing more, but also costing our jobs. Our manufacturing base, our employee has decreased since tariffs have started. People are poorer because of this man. People in Arizona, hundreds of thousands of Arizona are now looking forward to health care because they could not get this president to take any leadership when it comes to expanding and supporting the extension of the Obamacare subsidies and or protecting Medicaid.

People are going to be suffering and hurting from that. And there are millions and millions of millions of Latinos in this country right now that are questioning whether they can leave their home again without password without burst certificates. This administration of Stephen Miller has basically green lit every opportunity to be racially profiling Latinos. So that is not going to be the antics or whatever you want to come from the past are not going to be the cause of what people think about.

They're thinking about how this administration has affected them personally. People are scared, who are sicker, who are poorer because of this administration. And again, no matter what this president says, it's not changing. Senator, let me ask you about Democrats' message heading into the midterms because if you look at the latest polling, the Democratic Party actually gets lower approval ratings.

Then Trump does 33% trust Democrats to handle the country's biggest problems, compare that to 37%. For President Trump, it's a narrow margin. But how do you turn that around, Senator? Well, we're not running against Trump.

He's not on the ballot. That's only has an electoral effect. Number two, look, elections matter. And when the election happens, what you've seen in the past, especially in 2018, for example, is that people start to sign that they want to see a balance against this president.

They start understanding that, again, this president is not looking out for their best interests. He's using governments to corrupt himself, his family, and to enrich his family, I should say. And they're going to find that the Democrats are the party that's there to turn this around. You're going to make, ensure that this country has a prosperous future.

You have a chance at the American dream, and that government is not going to be just another ATM that could be robbed by politicians like happening right now under this president. Virginia Governor Abigail Spanberger, a moderate, of course, who was recently elected, is going to deliver the Democratic response. What do you want to hear from her tonight? What's a win for her and for Democrats tonight?

Well, look, I think we want to hear what Abigail ran on, and I was very happy to support her, and we campaigned for her in Virginia. She talked about cost of living. She talked about bringing stability to our community. She talked about actually fighting for a chance for your family, no matter what part of Virginia you are, to have a chance at the American dream.

And that's why she was able to not just win, but really have a huge blowout, and a very, very hard, potentially a hard year. I think that message is what we're going to hear from her, one that specifically calls to the best of America, one that actually talks about what the future looks like, and the fact that this administration is not giving us a brighter future of anything is only much dimmer. But with her leadership and leadership of the Democrats, we can move forward. We can't put this country back on track.

We can certainly can move it away from the world that Trump has made. Senator, just finally, the President is going to deliver his State of the Union address tonight. We believe it's the first in the midst of a partial government shutdown. How do you see the government reopening?

Do you think that the President's speech will, to some extent, be a catalyst to finally get a deal and reopen the government completely? Well, from my experience with Donald Trump, President Donald Trump, is that he certainly is a catalyst, but he's never really a catalyst for a compromise. The American public is very clear. They're sick of federal law enforcement invading our towns.

In the city like Minneapolis, we only have 600 sworn police officers. There was 2,000 agents and federal agents that were swarming that town, violating people's rights. Police officers, sworn police officers in Minnesota and Minneapolis were pulled over by ICE agents because they were black or Latino and forced to prove their citizenship. That's not professional law enforcement.

Two Americans citizens gunned down less than two weeks by agents who were just overly using power instead of actually being respectful of citizens' rights to the First Amendment are dead in the streets because this President has no accountability. We now have reports from yesterday that the ICE agents were deliberately, and they didn't surprise me at all, mistrained and under-trained, cutting the training days down to about 45 days, specifically skipping over constitutional rights and duties and slacking even on when it comes to weapons making this something that is horrific for someone like me who actually served in combat. So the President needs to answer to that. The American public wants professional immigration enforcement.

They want the racial profiling of Americans. We want them to respect the Fourth Amendment, take your masks off, and act like we expect our professional law enforcement is in the towns. Until we see that, I think it's a very difficult situation. I don't think this President knows how to lead out of that.

All right, Senator Gallego, thank you so much. Really appreciate it. And back with me is the panel. Mariana, Adrienne, and Michael, thank you so much for sticking around.

I want to get your reaction to what we just started with just learning that Congresswoman Katherine Clark has also been to skip the address tonight, Mariana. But the fact that you have more than three dozen members of Congress who are not going to be at that speech tonight, what do you think the fallout will be? Will it energize the Democratic base or could it backfire? You know, I've been wondering how many people actually watch the State of the Union.

And if many people are tuning in to the President, I have no idea if they're going to be tuning in really to these counter-programings. However, I will say Democrats have been doing a lot more on social media, recruiting a lot of podcasters to be part of this. So those people do have reach. But again, I'm not really sure your enthusiasm.

You're going to get this more enthusiastic base that isn't already there going full anti-Trump. But I will say, Democrats are struggling to show that they are fighting. This isn't really going to resonate on Capitol Hill. I mean, I'm sure there's still going to be Democrats who go who might be booing, who might be shouting despite leaders saying just sit there, as Hacking Jeffery says, in silent defiance.

They're really crossing their fingers and hoping Democrats don't utter anything. But we'll see. I don't know if that's all control. Adrienne, what do you think?

What are you going to be watching for in this regard? Do you have concerns that this could backfire? I mean, Senator Mark Kelly makes the point that it is his duty to be there for the state of the union. Sure, it was really interesting to see two Democratic senators from the same state having slightly different takes.

But I can certainly see both positions. I can understand certainly why Senator Mark Kelly wants to be staring Donald Trump in the eye and giving what he's been putting in through the last few months. Look, I think that if you are going to be in the room, if you are a Democratic member of Congress, or a senator who chooses to be in the room, be the adult. Don't cause ruckus.

Do what your leadership is asking of them to do. I think a lot of Americans are looking for some real leadership. They're not seeing it from Donald Trump. They want some leadership, and they would like to at least not see a clown show or people in the room yelling things and making hay over it.

But I think a lot of people understand that we don't want to be there tonight. There is a counter programming, which I think is going to be very effective. I also do wonder how many people want to tune in. Because I think he made a really smart point.

I mean, going back and looking at President Clinton's 2000 speech, we didn't hear from presidents all the time. We heard from Trump. Trump is out there front and center. It seems, you know, in our face.

It's 4-7 every day. 4-7 every day. So I do wonder if people are in a tune in the way they used to. I just big picture because we've seen Republicans have bad behavior during the state of the Union.

Democrats have had bad behavior. Do you think Americans have an appetite for that at this point? Time? Even the base of both parties.

So first of all, I think the senator should be worried about that 33% number that you put out there. I mean, this is the weird thing that we've got going. The president's numbers are down in terms of favorability and trust. But the Democrats' numbers aren't coming up.

They should be concerned about that. I don't know that you regain that trust with the American people by doing 15 other programs, you know, draining the swamp, or whatever it is, state of the swamp and all these other programs, and acting out and having antics on the stage, on the big stage during the state of the Union. I have a high level of confidence. I think that the Democrats will perform some level of self-harm tonight.

And that might be the only thing to the question that you were answering earlier. That might be the only thing that takes away from what they should do is sit there quietly and listen. And they won't do that. All right, guys.

Great conversation. Thank you for the preview on a critical night. We really appreciate it. Mariana, Adrienne, and Michael.

We will see you back here tonight for our special post State of the Union coverage. Coming up after the break, new details on the search for Nancy Guthrie and an announcement from our dear friend and colleague Savannah Guthrie. We're live in Arizona. Please stay with us on the press now.

Welcome back. We want to turn out to the agonizing search for Nancy Guthrie now in its 24th day. Our friend and colleague Savannah Guthrie released a new video today announcing that Guthrie family is offering a $1 million reward for information leading to the return of her beloved mom. Savannah also pleading with the public to keep her mom in their thoughts and prayers.

Please keep praying without ceasing. We still believe. We still believe in a miracle. We still believe that she can come home.

Hope against hope. As my sister says, we are blowing on the embers of hope. We also know that she may be lost. She may already be gone.

She may have already gone home to the Lord that she loves. And is dancing in heaven with her mom and her dad. And with her beloved brother appears. And with our daddy.

If this is what is to be, then we will accept it. But we need to know where she is. We need her to come home. As the investigation moves forward, we are also learning more about those images of a man seen on Nancy Guthrie's porch.

Two law enforcement sources tell NBC News one of those images in which the person is not wearing a backpack may have been captured before the morning she disappeared. NBC News correspondent Aaron McLaughlin joins me now to see our beloved images outside of Nancy Guthrie's home. Well, Kristen, back on February 10th, the FBI director Cash Patel tweeted a series of images as well as the video at the time saying that it shows us suspect on Nancy Guthrie's door step, then green there. Internet slews pointing out that there was no backpack, that the gun was missing, that it appeared darker and now two sources with knowledge of the investigation say that that image, they believe comes from another date and earlier date.

However, the Pima County Sheriff says that that is still being investigated. He said that the nest camera images and stills that were extracted did not have a date and a time. So that is still very much part of this investigation. Alright, Aaron McLaughlin.

Thank you so much for that. Keep it right here for special coverage of President Trump's State of the Union speech. And I'll be back for live analysis and news making interviews after tonight's speech. Hey, everyone.

I'm Dylan Dryer, co-host of the Third Hour of Today, and Mom to Three Wild Boys. I've learned a lot in my years as a parent, mostly that I don't have it all figured out yet. And I'm not the only one. This is my new podcast, The Parent Chat.

Each week I sit down with someone new for honest conversation and real-world advice about parenting. I am over here just like winging it. Hey, I'm just trying not to screw my own kids up. I'm not giving you advice on how much screw yours up.

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