Welcome to the press. Now I'm Peter Alexander here in Washington. As we like to say around these parts, if it's Tuesday, voters are voting somewhere today. That somewhere is the state of Michigan, a key battleground this fall where Republicans and Democrats are holding presidential primaries and where protest votes of the likely nominees in both parties are also taking center stage.
First, the Republican side. This is the second Donald Trump versus Nikki Haley matchup in four days, with Haley looking to solidify that 40% of the anti Trump vote that she notched in South Carolina and New Hampshire. As we head into Super Tuesday just one week from today. On the Democratic side, a protest vote against President Biden is not a rival candidate, but rather what's essentially a vote of no confidence.
Michigan primary voters are allowed to cast uncommitted ballots. And many activists with roots in the state's sizable Arab and Muslim Muslim American communities are pushing Michigan ers to vote uncommitted as a way to protest the president's handling of the Israel Hamas war. Progressives have been rationing up their pressure on the President to stop backing Israel's military campaign in Gaza. And while not the permanent ceasefire that those voters want, President Biden said last night that a pause in fighting could be coming soon.
Well, I hope by the beginning of the weekend, by the end of the weekend. My national security advisor tells me that we're close, we're close. We're not done yet. My hope is by next Monday, we'll have a ceasefire.
Organizers say the uncommitted campaign's goal is to notch 10,000 votes today, but that number would actually be notably smaller than what is considered a typical uncommitted turnout in the state's Democratic primary. Check this out. Michigan's last three Democratic primaries all saw about 20,000 uncommitted ballots in each cycle, even when there was not organized campaign pushing people to vote that way. President Biden won Michigan in November 2020, by the way, by more than 100,000 votes.
Still, today's results that really could highlight what is the political liability for President Biden. At a moment, other vulnerabilities are also on display. That includes his handling of the crisis at the southern border with Mexico, an issue that Donald Trump clearly wants to try to make central to his presidential campaign. A New Monmouth poll has 61% of adults calling illegal immigration a very serious problem.
That includes 41% of Democrats and 58% of independents. President Biden is scheduled to head to the border on Thursday, where he is certain to criticize House Republican efforts to block A bipartisan border security and foreign aid bill. The 81 year old President is also continually fighting concerns over his age. And here's how we try to brush aside those concerns.
Yesterday on a late night appearance with Seth Meyers. You are currently 81 years old. Who the hell told you that? Yeah, that's classified.
How do you address that concern going forward as you come up to the 2024 election? Well, a couple things. Number one, you gotta take with the other guy. He's about as old as I.
It's about how old your ideas are. Look, I mean this is a guy who wants to take us back. He wants to take us back in Roe v. Wade.
He wants to take us back on a whole range of issues. I really think his views on where to take America are older than. Anyway, I don't get part of President Biden's conversation just yesterday with Seth Meyers on NBC. NBC, Mike, Natalie is on the ground in Dearborn, Michigan.
For us, the heart of that state's Arab American population, Mike, is a voting day on both sides. Uncommitted organizers, they appear to be trying to manage the expectations with a sort of 10,000 vote target. How likely, based on your reporting there is that they hit that total? And what are folks on the ground telling you, Peter?
Basically on the historical track record, it's likely that the uncommitted vote will be more than those, let's just say their carefully managed expectations of 10,000. This is such an unusual primary so far here, right? We had New Hampshire primary. Representative Biden wasn't even on the ballot, got 60% of the vote.
He's got 96% of the vote in South Carolina, about 90% in Nevada. No one in Nevada, no one really knows where this is going to end up here in Michigan in part because this is also the first time Michigan is voting in this earlier window. It is notable though that this was Michigan's move into the earlier window meant to highlight some of the strengths of President Biden with key voting coalitions like black voters, like union members. And instead it just has put a real spotlight on his handling of foreign policy and concern many Democrats have over his support for Israel and the humanitarian crisis really that we're seeing in Gaza.
And that's really been front centered with some of the voters we've been talking to today. Take a listen to what made us come out and vote today, I think is the desire for peace, the desire to put pressure on the current administration for a ceasefire. Foreign policy needs to be changed. It needs to be shifted not just because Ramadan's coming or because already 12,000 or 10,000 children have passed away or killed, murdered, in this case, innocently.
That should be the result. I shouldn't take his decision. His decision should be made in the beginning of the war. So, Peter, we're starting to get that rush hour surge of voting here where we are in Dearborn.
It was interesting this Michigan does have some new laws making it easier to vote earlier and absentee. And Michigan secretary of state said that before polls Even opened today, 1 million ballots had been cast in both primaries. And notably, she said there had been strong turnout in Ann Arbor. Now, you know Michigan, you know the geography of Ann Arbor.
That's a college town. And there has been significant, of course, activism among young voters, in particular about Gaza. So a potential important turnout clue for what we might see later tonight when numbers start rolling in. Then you and I have these conversations all day privately, but now we're on camera together having this conversation longer.
You take what you're hearing since we last spoke about it seriously. The Biden campaign is taking this protest. Is there a level of concern that this really does have implications that go well beyond the primary? Well, of course, here these conversations are more fun off camera.
But, well, for the purposes of this conversation with a lot of other people watching, listen, the Biden campaign is concerned about what they're seeing today, but they're also downplaying it. They say, listen, we are hearing these voters this. There has been efforts on the part of the campaign to send top officials, maybe not the president, he's only come to campaign here once, but others to hear the concerns. And it was interesting talking with, for instance, the Michigan Democratic Party chairwoman today.
She said, listen, you can tell the president has been listening to these concerns because of those comments he made yesterday, ice cream cone in hand, talking about a ceasefire being likely. They also have drawn a distinction between a pressure campaign now to try to influence the president's foreign policy and what these voters will do in November. They say those voters will be behind the president when it comes to November. A big question, though.
We'll see. Yeah, we'll be watching over the course of the day. Mike Mumley, stay safe on the trail. We'll talk to you a little bit later.
My friend. Join us now is Michigan Democratic state Representative Abraham Ayashi is the majority leader in the Michigan House of Representatives and is backing the uncommitted campaign in the state. We really appreciate your being with us, sir. I want to ask you out of the gates.
Last week Organizers were shooting for about 20,000 uncommitted votes. Today we're hearing 10,000 is the goal for the uncommitted campaign. What would you view as successful? I think the success would be record turnout.
If you look at the concerns of the Democratic coalition, there's a multi racial, multi religious coalition that says, we do not believe the United States should be funding war. The United States should not be backing any initiative that is killing any innocent man, woman and child. And we've seen that happen over the last 140 days. So I think tonight we're expecting to have a very strong showing and we will see that once the polls close.
We saw record turnout legislation. So they were asked just to be very clear about that. Record turnout for whom record turnout overall record turn out for the uncommitted number because the 10,000 gold, it was said, is obviously well below the number that it's been in the past. So just to be clear here, for whom are you looking to see a record and what is that record need be?
We want, we want to see people turn on a vote. I think that is the ultimate goal. And we are seeing, well, look, as somebody who's in politics, it's always a good thing to turn on vote. But I will say you are going to see a significant number of folks turning out to vote on uncommitted, which is why it's reflecting in the organizing efforts that we're seeing all across our state.
So let me ask you about what Governor Wimber told us about the president's handling of the conflict yesterday. I'll take that for our audience. I have spoken with the president. I've spoken with a lot of people about it, and I keep very close with our Arab American community.
I understand that, you know, there is a lot of different feelings on this and strong ones and pain that people are feeling. And yet I also know that we have a president who is working 247 to try to bring calm to the region and peace to the region. He is, I think, working incredibly hard to resolve what is happening. He's working incredibly hard to resolve what is happening.
Do you accept that assessment? Leader AYASH it certainly has not done enough. When you see 30,000 dead, innocent men, women and children in Gaza and you saw that the president, for the large part of this war, did not speak out forcefully against the dehumidization of the Palestinian people. It is now only now that we're seeing a shift in that messaging.
And that's largely because the organizing efforts that we've done here In Michigan, in the conversation that we had with the White House, do you think he's responded to your concerns, though, that having heard the White House has had multiple meetings with members of your community during their visit? More than having meetings, what we need to see is the White House must act on this issue. We've been very clear. A permanent ceasefire, ending the funding of these bombs that are killing innocent men, women and children and restoring humanitarian aid for people of Gaza.
That has been our position from the start, and we keep pushing for that, and we have yet to see that happen. And we will continue to push that through our efforts tonight and beyond as we enter the rest of this year. So yesterday, the President said he's hopeful there could be a ceasefire. He was specific.
He said by Monday, if there is a ceasefire or if this war ends before November, do you believe that uncommitted voters in Michigan will be willing to vote for the president? Or is that relationship, in your view, irreparably damaged? You know, I think the way it's framed is not as transactional as I think many people wanted it to look like. It's not.
If you do, if you have a ceasefire, you stop killing. It's in exchange for votes. What we are saying is the President has not listened to the call. A majority of Americans, 70 plus Democrats, 60 plus of Americans that have said, we do not want the United States to find a war that is killing children.
So we are pushing back on that. We are hoping that the President will heal the calls of his constituency. And that is the most democratic thing to do. And we are using this election today to send that message so that come November, there is not a conversation around, are there still people in Palestine undergoing a genocidal campaign by Benjamin?
So to be clear, as my understanding is, I mean, the presence right now, he says that Israel's gone over the top and its actions there, he's been trying to put more pressure on them. Obviously, that's not sufficient without a ceasefire for you. But just to be very clear, what specifically do you need to see? I know it's not as transactional as you just noted, to feel satisfied that the President has made significant change in the direction of what not just Arab and Muslim American communities say, but a broad number of Americans are saying right now, we've been very clear.
Restoring humanitarian aid, ending this unconditional funding to Israel and Benjamin Netanyahu's radical regime, and a permanent ceasefire to usher in Palestinian statehood and safety and security for all those that live in the region. It's not A complicated ass. We are asking the United States to lead with peace, to lead with moral clarity, and to stop funding any initiative that is killing innocent men, women and children, which we have seen 30,000 Palestinians have now suffered through. And unfortunately, every hour that goes by, two more policies and others die.
And that is unacceptable if the US Is finding better. One last question for you. I can you told Politico recently, quote, it is insulting when people tell Arab and Muslim American communities that if you don't support Biden, you're effectively supporting former President Trump. If that is the ballot in November, isn't that sort of the way ultimately that would be working?
If you're not supporting President Biden, you would be, in effect, supporting a Trump campaign. Today, we're supporting an uncommitted effort to allow this president in this administration to change course on this issue. Look, my uncle was killed in an airstrike three days before the travel ban was signed. So if anyone knows the personal pain of President Trump's policies, it's people like me and people like my community.
We recognize the danger of Donald Trump. I know he's a threat to democracy. So the question has to be asked to the candidate, not to the voters. What is President Biden willing to do to protect and save his democracy?
Is he going to listen to the will of the people or will he continue to be a pacifist as a lace to allow you, Benjamin at Yahoo, to dictate whatever terms that he wants that has resulted in killing 3, 000 people. So the question is for the we stand with democracy and not genocide. And I hope the president will do the same that does that very much. Appreciate making time to share your perspective with us.
Thank you. And as we did mention, it is Trump versus Haley in Michigan's Republican primary vote today, where just a portion of the state's delegates are on the line thanks to some complicated and confusing rules in this contest, as well as some internal Republican chaos. NBC Shaq Brewster is on the ground in Grand Rapids, Michigan. Steve Konaki has a big board with what and where he is watching tonight.
First, Michigan is also set to be the last primary before Super Tuesday, which Trump rival Nikhali pinning her hopes on Shaq. So what are you hearing from voters there and what they're looking for? Well, they're coming out for different reasons, Peter. I'll tell you, some people say that this is a raw political calculation.
Some folks who have said that they're supporting Nikki Haley told me that they're only doing so as a method and means to stop Donald Trump. I've heard Trump supporters come out and say that this is about the issues for them. They like what they saw under President Trump's leadership and they want him back in the White House. And I heard from folks who are supporting President Joe Biden and they point to the economy, the over performing economy.
They say that they want more of that leadership. They think that he is the only option to fight this battle against Trump. I believe we have some sound from some of the voters that I've been talking to. Let's try to play some of that now.
Not traditionally a Republican, but the last years of leaning more toward Democrat. Why didn't you vote for Biden this time? Because I feel it's more important to at this point just let people know that there is an alternative in the Republican Party. The Republican Party I'm almost embarrassed with sometimes just in terms of how they have handled things.
You say that as a Republican. Yes, exactly. I'm a moderate Republican. The party is leaving me and this is a unique part of the state.
We're in Kent County, a swing county as of late, especially when you look at these recent cycles. It's a place where Nikki Haley is hoping to have a stronger performance than what you would see statewide. And at least according to some of those people that I talked to, you do have some people coming out because of her attention in this area. Shackley Republicanside is also a primary, but the delegate allotment works a little differently there.
Walk us through how the GOP handles things in Michigan. I think they're trying to confuse all of us, Peter. If you look at the delegates, we know that 55 delegates are up for grabs in this primary, but only 16 of those delegates will be allocated. Based on the results of what you see at the polls tonight.
The rest of 39 delegates will be allocated at state conventions, plural, that will take place on Saturday, both in Grand Rapids and Detroit. Why are there multiple conventions? Well, there are currently dueling or rival or competing leaders of the state Republican Party. You have the former leader who still has control of the email list and the website.
She is having a convention in Detroit. And you have the Trump back leader, a former representative, having a convention in Grand Rapids. It's very confusing, very complicated. But by the end we will know how this all shakes out.
Equally confusing. The fact that it is 71 degrees in late February in Grand Rapids, Michigan will say, I'm not complaining. We'll save that conversation for another time. It's much better than my experiences.
Cover the campaign this time of year there, Shaq. Enjoy it. Have some fun out there reporting. Appreciate your getting serious.
I want to turn out Steve Bernacke. He's at the big board scene. What are you watching in tonight's results? Okay, a couple big storylines here on the Republican side, the Democratic side.
Weird. Watch tonight as this light, as this lights up with all the results start on the Republican side here because the question is Donald Trump create a big advantage in this, in all of the primaries. But how well could Nikki Haley do here because she hit that 40% number she got in South Carolina, New Hampshire, if she's going to do something like that. Where to look, first and foremost is right in this area.
That is Kent county where Grand Rapids is right next towards Iowa County. That's where Holland is. And there's a region in here that combined makes up about 17% of all the Republican votes cast statewide. That's about one out of every six.
And what makes this region so unique and what you need to watch to see how Haley is doing is that this was the most Trump resistant portion of the state in the 2016 Republican presidential primary. It is a traditionally Republican and conservative area. But remember in 2016 when Trump was running the first time, he got 37% of the vote in the Michigan primary. Not so in Kent County.
Look at this. In Kent County 2016, he got 23%. Next door in Iowa county, he got about 19%, almost about half of what he got statewide. So this whole area here was a huge, huge, weak source for Donald Trump in 2016.
Is it again tonight? Is it a source of strength for Haley? Does that give her an impressive performance statewide in terms of the Democratic race here? Call that up on the screen.
Go back to the statewide here, the storyline here, it's Biden, Dean Phillips, the congressman on the ballot. But this is what worries the Biden campaign. Uncommitted activists who oppose Biden's policy on the Israel Hamas war are encouraging Democrats to vote uncommitted as a protest against Joe Biden. If that is getting any traction tonight, we can look in two big places for it.
The first is the biggest county in the state, Wayne county, where Detroit is. It is also where the city of Dearborn, Michigan is. Dearborn, with over 100,000 residents, it is majority Arab American. It has the largest concentration of Muslim Americans per capita of any city in the country.
So take a look at Wayne county, in particular, Dearborn, to see if uncommitted is registering. And also take a look next door in Washtenaw County, University of Michigan, Eastern Michigan University. We've seen a lot of activation on college campuses against Joe Biden's policy on Israel and Mosque. We certainly see polling that shows younger college age voters are most opposed to that policy.
Again, look in this county, see if that segment of voters is actually turning out and checking off the uncommitted option here. If you're not seeing it there in those two places, you're probably gonna see it anywhere. See for a big board. Steve, thank you so much.
And coming up next year, Oval Office. Sit down inside President Biden's tense meeting with House Speaker Mike Johnson and Capitol Hill's top congressional leaders as Washington tries to avert a partial government shutdown. That could happen as early as the end of this week. You're watching ME Press now.
Welcome back. Present Biden host the top four congressional leaders of the White House. Today's lawmakers scramble to try to avert a partial government shutdown by the end of this week. White HOUSE the president, I should say, telling those lawmakers at the White House it's Congress's responsibility to fund the government, warning the government shutdown would damage the economy, in his words, quote, significantly.
Following their meeting, there was cautious bipartisan optimism from both Speaker Johnson and Leader Jeffries the shutdown could be avoided. Johnson also told reporters that he engaged in a separate one on one meeting briefly with the president in the Oval Office. Looming over all of this, of course, is the president's emergency supplemental request for foreign aid that's been stalled in Congress for months. And that remains a major point of contention on Capitol Hill.
The meeting on Ukraine was one of the most intense I've ever encountered in my many meetings in the Oval Office. I said, I've been around here a long time. It's maybe four or five times that history is looking over your shoulder. And if you don't do the right thing, whatever the immediate politics are, you will regret it.
There was a discussion about the supplemental spending package and I was very clear with President all those in the room that the House is actively pursuing and investigating all the various options on that. And we will address that in a timely manner. But again, the first priority of the country is our border and making sure it's secure. NBC cycle coordinator, he's on Capitol Hill for us.
I'll walk us through this. I was there listening to the remarks from both the Democrats and Republican leaders there. Did this meeting, though, from your reporting of the White House, move the ball on government funding? What are the sort of key sticking points that need to be sorted out on that as we reach this week's deadline.
It does seem to have moved the ball a little bit, Peter. The vibes were positive coming out of this White House meeting. Everyone seemed to be in agreement that they're moving towards a resolution here. Mike Johnson, you know, talk about how they're working in good faith, resolve that as soon as possible.
Literally working on the clock. Senator Chuck Schumer would float the possibility that yet another stopgap, yet another short term will may be necessary to prevent the government on Friday declined entertaining questions about that after Democratic sat at lunch when I asked them about it saying simply that they're getting closer, getting closer. He feels they can get this done. The biggest sticking point, Peter is the policy add on the so called riders in these government funding bills.
They had largely settled the top line amount in terms of how much the government would spend usually hold up in prior government funding bills. That has been resolved. The whole of now has been largely House Republican demands for conservative policy measures to insert in this. And of course Democrats in the Senate and President Biden are not willing to accept a lot of the demands that House Republicans are putting forward.
Where does that leave us? There are just a little over 72 hours until the Friday midnight deadline and Mike Johnson said he's going to give members at least 72 hours to read the bill. That doesn't leave much time to get this done in time. Even if the House were to release, you know, close the deal and release the bill tonight, they'd have to start moving very quickly and hope the Senate gets it done.
So that's probably the single biggest obstacle to averting a shutdown in time given that times are running short and that they would have not only strike the deal but also pass it through both chambers. Of course this is just part of the government, Peter. This is March 1st deadline for certain agencies like Veterans affairs and energy. The March 8 deadline for other parts of the government like the Department of Justice and HHS will be even tougher than this.
Yeah, no doubt. The Department of Defense hhs, you said. So we get to do this all over again as the good news sadly promotes Americans. I want to ask you the president's supplemental less money for Ukraine for the Indo Pacific, specifically Taiwan for Israel.
It was also discussed in this meeting at the White House. I was struck and listening to this that it didn't sound like Speaker John Johnson was any closer to putting this on the floor for a vote. He was still focused very heavily on trying to accomplish something vis a vis the border before you even consider that? No, I think that's absolutely right here.
This is very much up in the air. Speaker Johnson is still not making any commitment in terms of whether or when an foreign aid package that includes Ukraine funding will come to the floor, in part because, yes, government funding is a priority. But he's also facing very explicit threats to his job, to his speakership from the hard right rebels if he were to allow Ukraine to pass. This has become a real rallying cry on the right wing of the MAGA part of the Republican Party.
And Johnson is facing a real squeeze here. This was clearly the most tense part of that White House meeting because everyone else in the room, including President Biden, including all the leaders on the Democratic side and Senator Mitchell McConnell were in favor of Ukraine. A But Mike Johnson has not made any commitments. He doesn't do it.
Told Johnson he doesn't do it. He will regret it for not only the next two years, but the rest of his lifemakers right now want to just allow for a vote and to how many Democrats and Republicans would join? They feel very strongly that we have enough votes to pass by. Johnson has let that happen.
Right now he's not going to do that. I hope to go on the Hill force. So I appreciate your analysis of all of that. And after this break, we are on the campaign trail as Nikki Haley pushes to stay in the race as long as she can against the former president.
You're watching MEET THE PRESS now. Our panel's coming up. Weapon back. Voters are voting, as we say today, it's Michigan.
But Nikki Haley's campaign is already looking past this a week from now. The Super Tuesday campaign today in Colorado, which is one of more than a dozen states holy nominated contests. A week from today, a poor showing for Haley really could mean the end of her campaign. NBC News correspondent Alien Tallies are traveling with Haley campaign.
And as the very latest from Centennial, Colorado, Alex. Hey, Peter. From Colorado, we're Nikki Haley is continuing her sprint for the Super Tuesday finish here. She held two events in Michigan departing that state just as voters were officially heading to the polls there.
I have to tell you on the Michigan front, it's one of those states that the Haley campaign often looks at and says this is a place where they think they can build the right kind of a coalition. I've met Democrats, I've met independents, and certainly I've met Republicans who are no fans of Trump showing up at those Nikki Haley events that we were at. In two stops in Michigan, both in the Detroit suburbs and onto Grand Rapids. Those are exactly the kind of voters that I'm also meeting here in the outskirts of Denver.
And Haley again makes that similar pitch all steeped in the idea that she is the more electable candidate in a general election against President Joe Biden. Of course, as we said before, and we'll need to say again, you don't get to a general without first getting through the primary. And for Haley, the reality of that becomes slimmer and slimmer by the day. The Republican apparatus clearly ready to move on and put themselves themselves in a prime and out of a primary election posture and into a general election positioning with Trump as the nominee.
But I gotta tell you, voters I've spoken to in Michigan are now here in Colorado, say they want to see Nikki Haley continue to stick it out and fight. That's exactly what Haley wants to hear. She says she's gonna be getting voters an alternative all the way down the calendar, at least for Super Tuesday. Peter, thank you so much for that report.
And joining us now is our panel, Eugene Daniels, White House correspondent for Politico and NBC News political contributor for the sake of it. We also brought Eugene Robinson, columnist at the Washington Post, and also an NBC News political analyst. Sarah Chamberlain is with us as well. I hope your real name's not Eugene.
And CEO of the Republican Main Street Partnership somewhere in Washington, our friend Eugene Scott is probably staying with us. Let me start with you. Haley is arguing right now that the 40% of the votes that she got in Hampshire to Shia, that in South Carolina, that that's a big issue that Donald Trump should be worried about right now. In effect, he is incumbent on the Republican side.
How should the Trump folks be about that? And it's just she had a point there. They should be very concerned because that is the Main Street Republicans. That is the group that he's losing.
There's a suburban, well educated people. So he needs to do some messaging. Do they come around? I think they could come back around.
They certainly liked his policies. The issue that they have with him is his personality and some of the things he says. So, yes, I want to get your take on as a 40% figure. It feels like a lot of Biden in South Carolina.
What, 95 point something percent? Yeah. If you look at the percentage of Haley voters who say they will not vote for Donald Trump, you do the calculation, you come up with something like 25% of Republican primary voters are saying they won't vote for Donald Trump. Now, I expect a lot of those Republicans to come home, but what if just half of them come up 10, 12% in the Republican vote.
That's a problem. So just let me get your take on this, Eugene. Specifically as a race of potential problems. One is for the current president, United States, Joe Biden.
Right now, it's in the state of Michigan. We spoke within this hour the Democratic Michigan leader, Abraham Ayash, and he was making the argument that the Arab, Muslim American communities, you know, basically need to hear more from this president. Not that their decision is made up for the fall right now, but they need to see more action, not just words from the President of the United States. What kind of alarm bells are sounding at the White House and at the campaign in Wilmington given this uncommitted vote?
The likelihood, we actually see a pretty decent number tonight from that. Yeah, they're watching it. They don't seem overly concerned. This isn't a group, as you well know, that gets overly consistently shows this.
I think so because it shows cracks in there in what could be the base of the party come November. Right. The same problem that Trump is going to have with ministry Republicans, this president is going to have with young voters, black and brown voters, Arab American, Muslim American voters across the country. Right.
Michigan is the first place where they can test that. And Michigan already has this like energy of uncommitted. I think no matter what the number is, unless it beats Joe Biden uncommitted, they're probably not gonna do alarm because they're paying a lot of attention to how to message it. But the point about the Haley folks and on the other side of the uncommitted folks, both candidates for president, Trump and Biden look like they are eroding votes all over the country.
Yeah, it doesn't seem to be like the best period for these two candidates right now. Once we get into the, you know, the actual general election, one assumes that Democrats will tend to come home to Biden and Republicans will tend to come home to Trump and we'll see who's left over. That remains to be seen. And I think there are a lot of twists and turns we can have just in terms of tonight.
It's hard to have like a benchmark, you know, what is going to be an impressive uncommitted vote because there's nothing to really look back. I was looking back at previous results in 2012 when Obama was the incumb unopposed. Well, those were caucuses, not a primary. But uncommitted got 11%, you know, against an incumbent popular, incumbent president who was so, you know, don't be surprised.
I mean, I would think that anything below that would be like a huge difference. I'm getting your take right now. We look ahead at Thursday, right? There's always another, there's another battleground at the border, frankly.
You're gonna have Joe Biden, Donald Trump will show up at the border on the same day. Immigration, both of them feel like it's an issue they have some advantages on. Donald Trump think it's a no brainer. This is a key issue for his campaign.
Too many migrants, undocumented immigrants have come into the country. Joe Biden's making the argument, hey, we gave you a lot of concessions on bipartisan border deal and you guys turned around. You guys are the problem here. Who has the advantage of.
Look at their. I actually still think the Republicans do because, yes, you guys would disagree with me, I'm sure, but they gave us some concessions, but not enough. They still were allowing 5,000 people to come over every day. They were going to move where you have the trials.
They're going to move them to DC Instead of Texas. To DC Is the most liberal court in the country. So to put the immigrants through there, it is kind of a joke. It lets them all stay in the country.
I do think Republicans have the upper hand here, mostly because of the messaging. Right. This administration has not talked about or really want to work on immigration as much as they say they wanted to. And now their first bill, they haven't done much on it.
But the Republicans have over and over and over used immigration and undocumented immigrants as a culture. And once you have that base and the media ecosystem continues to use it, it's hard to pull that back. There are a lot of complexities here, right? Because if you just look at the number that are coming in the United States, this is outrageous.
He's the president. But if you look at the efforts president made in the recall, the reluctance of Republicans to go along with any of this effort, there's only, you know, well, you're saying the executive orders are gonna do well. Executive orders are not gonna do well. Mike Johnson is not being disingenuous there, right?
He says, oh, we need the strong legislation. And then he says it's just ridiculous. But, you know, but the messaging, I mean, that's an important thing because I would think the White House would be leaning into this weakness rather than sort of shying away from it and turning it into a strength by saying, look, we gave you the bill and you can argue about the merits of the bill and whether it's. But it is, it is further than support the bill.
This is not a liberal. Right. And this is not a liberal on immigration. So I just, I wonder why they're not leaning into it more in line.
They never lean into anything. Well, there is that. She makes a good point, sir. Does the messaging is a real issue for this White House.
Right. The law is the president, whatever you say, whether it's reasonable or unreasonable to focus on the issue of his age and the ability to deliver a clean sound bite, that kind of moment. Right. This is something that they fundamentally are still sort of trying to work their way through.
Yeah. They talked about it for years. Right. They have failed to tell their story to the American people.
There's always like this Kickstarter, we're going to do it now. We're going to do it now. And never really happens or it happens and it's not consistent. And that is why Republicans are much better at messaging, because when they pick a message, they stick with and they continue across the ecosystem.
That's not something that Democrats or this White House have done well for the last three and a half years. Yeah. This has been interesting several days and it literally feels like, think of all the things that occur in the course of the last six months. We have more than six months to go right now.
Israel, it was not even a topic six months ago. So just get ready for the whole conversation to twist and turn as we go forward. Eugene Daniels, Eugene Robinson, Sarah Chamberlain. Thank goodness.
You were going to make it easier for all of us to keep track. Thank you for being with us this hour. We are back tomorrow with Forming the Press, now that it is continuous news with Hallie Jackson right now. He was a young Marine.
She didn't care about convention. They made a life together. Then one night, the Marine died. And then the death investigation took a wild, unexpected and utterly bizarre turn.
I'm Josh Mankiewicz and this is Trace of Suspicion, an all new podcast from Dayline. Listen to all episodes of Trace of Suspicion now, wherever you get your podcasts.