Meet the Press NOW – January 12

If it's Friday, it all starts in Iowa. We're live in dangerously cold Des Moines where all eyes are on the front runner, the field and the weather as caucus goers and candidates face frigid temperatures in the final 72 hours before the first in the nation presidential contest. Plus, the US Military leads deadly airstrikes against dozens of Iran backed targets in Yemen, prompting vows of vengeance from the rebels and stoking fears of further escalations in the Middle East. And Congress barrels toward a partial government shutdown as House Republicans revolt against Peter Johnson's spending agreement.

With just one week to go until the deadline. Welcome to MEET THE PRESS Now, I am Kristen Welder. We are here in a very snowy, very cold Des Moines, Iowa, with just three days to go until the all important Republican caucuses get underway. And let me tell you folks, it sure is cold out here.

That is the word of the day. The weather is now a factor for candidates and caucus goers. You're looking at some of the wintry scenes all across the state this week. The cold and the snow force campaigns to cancel events today.

Now the forecast for Monday is dangerously cold temperatures with stinging windshields colder than any previous caucus day. And candidates are doing their best to motivate their supporters to brave the cold and turn out to caucus. No, it's going to be cold. I know it's going to be not the most pleasant, but I don't think you'll ever be able to cast a vote that has more impact given the circumstances.

We don't know it turns out to be. It could be much smaller than what it's been in the 16 cycle. That's possible. It's going to be cold.

We want George Washington to complain about the weather when he crossed the Delaware. It's going to be negative 15. But I'm going to be out there and I want you to go out there. But you get it.

Iowans get it. You know that you start all of this. You know, you send a message to the rest of the country about where you think we should go. Now, in addition to watching the weather, we are also watching to see just how dominant former President Trump's performance is on caucus night.

Bull showing by worth 30 points, which would be in the scored margin of victory. The current record in an Iowa Republican caucus is her on the lights. I'm just going to turn it off. And of course, we're also watching the fight for second place.

Nikki Haley is hoping she'll have a strong showing here and it'll give her some momentum Heading into the New Hampshire primary, Ron DeSantis, who staked his entire campaign on a strong performance in Iowa, may need a second place finish to even have a campaign this time next week. Joining me now here is NBC News is Garrett. Hey, Garrett, you have been covering this campaign from the beginning. Well, we'll go sledding, actually.

First of all, let's start here because it is snowing. You were here in 2012, as was I, covering caucuses then back in 2016. This cycle feels unique. It feels different.

What are you watching and what are the key themes for you right now? What the fact that Donald Trump is running as functionally incumbent and we're seeing as being treated as an incumbent is really making this different from those other caucuses. The fact that he's had such a dominant lead really from the jump without anybody coming close to challenging him in a significant way, coupled with this weather, which has made the idea that anyone could sprint anywhere, much less kind of sprint through the finish line, has taken some of the urgency out of what we've seen here at the end of the day. But when you talk to Trump and his staff and you talk to supporters, they really want to break the record here.

They want to prove that he is this dominant figure in the party and see if they can end this primary process before we even really get started as well. And they are fueling part of the enthusiasm feeling around these caucuses that are set together. So this is interesting because this is a group that, you know, it's very difficult to measure. Right.

And Donald Trump has always done well with people who he has pulled them from outside of politics, non traditional Republicans, non traditional political people, or they be young people, whether they be folks who just didn't care about voting before. Our poll has shown that he gets 63% of people who identify themselves as first time caucus goers. And what he's done differently now than what he was able to do even in 2016 when he came close here but couldn't win is he's professionalized his operation and they are turning these people who are first time caucus goers in, the volunteers and caucus captains and they're sort of weaponizing them in this caucus in a way that he's not been able to do before but could be really decisive on Monday. You know, it's interesting.

Obviously this is all about the people who are going to turn on and we're watching Donald Trump, but we're watching this all important fight for second place in because the game has changed, has now gotten out of the race, he was barely a blip here in Iowa, but he was pulling at 12% New Hampshire. So Nikki Haley can have a strong showing here. Garrett, she heads into New Hampshire with a lot of momentum. I've been talking to some other side of photos.

They say they are now looking at Nikki Haley. What is your sense of the second place fight? Well, look, I've been at Santa Sant Haley events this week and I have met people who are considering both candidates at the others events. Right.

There are still people who are certainly shopping between the two here in Iowa. In New Hampshire it's a more interesting picture as you say, because Haley appears to be a much stronger second place there and the polling indicates that she could take some of those, perhaps the majority of those Christie supporters with her. With him being out of the race, she has the narrowest possible opportunity here to make this a real fight. But you can see it, you can see if you look hard enough, just strong second place here, you know, pulling those Christy bowlers, maybe even winning in New Hampshire.

But again, it's going to take that, generating that momentum, generating that enthusiasm. Her events were larger than they have been for her recently. But I don't know if I've detected that kind of like ground swell that would make this into a real fight. We'll find out on Monday.

You sure will. You're going to be there to cover all of it. Garrett, your reporting has been tremendous. Stay warm.

I will try. Thank you Garrett. Really appreciate that Great analogous. Now we want to head over to Sioux City, Iowa.

That is where my colleague is talking to coffee sellers there. And Priscilla, Sioux City is a county that could give us some early insight into the enthusiasm for former President Donald Trump. What are caucus doors going to tell you, Priscilla? Yeah, absolutely, Kristen.

We were hearing from a lot of caucus doors in two county who say that they're still undecided. Some of them may not make a choice until caucus night but that they are leaning towards Donald Trump even as they're kind of between Ron DeSantis and Trump. We spoke with first time caucus goers at Northwestern College, that is a Christian college here. We also spoke with folks at the local pizza ranch Republicans there and I want to play some of those conversations for you.

The one that sends out to the most is probably Donald Trump. It's because he like he's, I feel like he has more of authority and people like different countries like respect him more than like so far like any other president I can think of. I think Ron has a good leader too. But like I Don't really know much about him yet because he's been the governor of Florida and we've seen four years without Trump already high and still undecided.

But I do believe I'm leaning towards Trump. Tell me why. I, I believe that he did what he said he was going to do in 2016, and I was surprised about that. And the idea of Trump being a known entity is something that we heard over and over from reporter from caucus doors that we've talked to across the state.

Obviously, we're here where there's a very large evangelical population, abortion ranking really high on a lot of these caucus doors list of priorities. And they say that while Donald Trump did sort of pave the way for the overturning of Roe v. Wade, that's not necessarily the deciding factor for them this time around. Kristen, really fascinating to hear from those caucus goers, Priscilla.

And of course, just taking a step back for a bit. Donald Trump didn't do so well in Sioux city back in 2016. So hearing that enthusiasm, enthusiasm for him is certainly significant as we head into the big caucus night. Priscilla Thompson, thank you so much for Sioux City, Iowa.

Now I wanna head over to Steve Kornacki, who is live at the Big board. And Steve, of course, you are watching all 99 counties here in Iowa, but there are a few that are particularly significant. Tell us what you're watching and tell us what we should be watching for on caucus night. Yeah, a couple things here.

We'll just pick up where you left off with Priscilla here, I assume county here. You know, northwest Iowa, really. This is an area evangelicals play a big role in Iowa caucuses in general. Back in 2016, 64 of the Iowa Republican electorate was evangelical Christian.

But it's especially true in northwest Iowa. It's not just folks who are affiliated as evangelical Christians. It's folks who go to church regularly. Church is a major part of their lives.

I think it's no, it's no true anywhere else but Sioux county. We saw in 2016 how skeptical evangelic were of Donald Trump. Many were at the beginning. And the story of the last eight years has been this political bond Trump seems to have generated with them.

So again, Sioux county back in 2016, here's the result. Ted Cruz won it. You can see Donald Trump's name near the top. He finished at 11% is worse than 99 counties.

So I think Sioux county is one we're looking at right away or as soon as we get results and we can't control the order. These counties come in. But as soon as we get Sioux County, I think it's gonna tell a big story. Is it a story about Donald Trump?

Has he improved his standing? Evangelicals, how much has he improved his standing? Is he winning this county? Is he winning it big?

So also a story about Ron DeSantis. Rhonda Santis is going to make a stand on Monday night. He has really courted evangelicals aggressively, got endorsement from one of top evangelical leaders of the state. This was, as we see, a Cruise county in 2016.

This is the kind of place that DeSantis has really got to make a stand, to make a statement if he's going to be a factory to pull off a surprise of any sort on Monday night. Now let's look from Nikki Haley standpoint. Zoom out all the counties here. Nikki Haley found her strongest support, political independents, college educated voters, higher income voters, voters in the suburbs, voters with a more negative view of Donald Trump.

Broadly speaking, the coalition that Haley's been putting together in Iowa and elsewhere resembles the coalition that Marco Rubio had in Iowa back in 2016. I'm going to call the 2016 results on the screen here and again, the pink counties here, Salmon, whatever you want to call them. These are the Rubio counties. There's only five of them that he won.

But see, he came close to getting said. He came close to Niohow. Overall, these are big. These are relatively speaking, Iowa, densely populated big counties.

They're the county too with the highest concentrations of Polk county, the state capital. This is Dallas county, suburbs, wealthy suburbs right outside of Des Moines, one of the highest concentrations of college degrees in the state. This is Story county, where Iowa State University is one of Donald Trump's worst counties, one of Marco Rubio's counties. This is Johnson county, most Democrat county in the state.

Iowa City, University of Iowa, Scott county with Davenports. These are the five counties that Rubio won. If Haley winning these five counties, is she winning any of them? Is she winning all five of them?

If she's going to get a second place showing and get the momentum Garrett was talking about going to New Hampshire, she's got to be doing real well in these five counties. The other question there too is where did Rubio fall short and where could Hailey make in rows in the places where Rubio fell flat in 60, could she move beyond that base of the well educated hierarchy? Because take a look at Southern island here in the Missouri border. County after county looks like this Rubio didn't even register.

These are small rural counties here. Rubio didn't even register. Ben Carson got there. You know, Ben Carson got there, CC over and over.

And he's got Ben Carson, not Marco Rubio. So Haley, if she's going to have a surprise showing here, a really strong show in Iowa, it's not just winning or doing well in those Rubio counties showing inroads in the rural places with low concentrations of college degrees where Rubio didn't register at all. Her types of gravity works are not many in numbers so far in this. Well, we know you will be watching it closely.

We're gonna be talking to you throughout the weekend, including on Meet the Press on Sunday. Steve Kornacki, thank you for breaking all of that down for us. Really appreciate it. Now we are joined by senior political editor Mark Murray, who is here braving the elements with me at Du Bois.

Thank you for being here. It's awesome. It's awesome. Look, let's pick up where Steve left off.

You talk about a place like Sioux county, the importance of that, the fact that Donald Trump didn't do well there in 2016. And boy, you heard that enthusiasm. Priscilla Thompson's piece there. Do you think this could be a potential historic night for former President Trump?

Yeah. It's important to know that he is the former president of his party and still importantly, he is still incredibly popular. So he's being treated in a different way than he ever was in 2016. I think it's important for us to kind of remember that.

But poll and other polls end up showing him with a substantial lead potentially historically christening this contest. And so I do think that that's something for us to kind of keep in mind as we battle, see who battles out for second place where, you know, Donald Trump and his standing might be the biggest storyline of them all on Monday night. And I know we're talking about this battle for second place as well. Steve Kornacki talking about the fact that Nikki Haley, she wants to do well, she's got to do well in the suburbs, educated voters.

She's got to be able to pick up that swath of voters if she wants to, for example, come in second place. What does the second place finish mean for Nikki Haley versus Aranda Santos? Yeah. So for Nikki Haley means that that momentum is real even in a place.

Remember, she hasn't campaigned in Iowa as much as Ron DeSantis has. Ron DeSantis is the one who has the endorsement from the state sitting Governor Kim Reynolds. He's the one who's been to all 99 counties and somehow he finishes it in third place. That is a huge indictment on him.

Nikki Haley might be able to afford a third place finish because we've her situation in New Hampshire. She's actually in a pretty decent position right now, regardless of what happens here on Monday night. So I do think that Ron DeSantis has more on the line than Nikki Haley does. But then again, everybody, we're going to see the intensity.

You can actually come out to vote and participate on the Monday caucus. In these conditions, you have to be the most committed. And our poll has actually showed that when it comes to enthusiasm and commitment, it's Donald Trump who actually has the most. I have to say, soon after I landed here last night, Mark, I hopped on the phone, started talking to voters who I've been in contact with throughout this process.

And some of them still undecided, but they say nothing's going to prevent them from turning out the caucus on Monday. How do you think? I know it's the next sector. I know you're not al Broker, but how do you think the weather could impact these results?

Yeah. And again, you know, one of the reasons why we end up having seen a caucus process is it does measure the intensity and enthusiasm. You know, there's no early vote. There's no vote by mail.

There is no absentee. You either show up or you don't, regardless of the conditions. So our own polling has been measuring intensity and enthusiasm for Trump and for everyone else. We're gonna see who really does have the most enthusiastic and your Trump, DeSantis or Nikki Haley.

We sure will. And I know you're gonna be here to cover all of it. Mark, thank you so much. Thanks for braving the elements with me.

We really appreciate it. And our special coverage here now is just getting started. On Sunday, I'll have a special edition of Meet the Press live right here from Des Moines. And on Monday, NBC News now special coverage of the caucus is starting at 7pm Eastern right here on NBC News now.

And now a very special moment here. I am going to toss it to my colleague Yanish Alcindor, who is holding things down back in the week, the press studios in Washington, D.C. and Yamiche. It is a special day for our entire NBC News family because you are back from maternity leave.

I want to welcome you back. We have missed you, but we're thrilled you had that time with your family and with your precious new baby. Well, thank you. Thank you so much.

I am so grateful to have had the time off with my daddy boy. And Kristen, thank you for tucking it out in Chile, Iowa for us. I missed you. And seeing you out there at the element, that just proves just how great of a lead you are.

So thank you so much. We will of course check back with you later this hour. And coming up, a major escalation in the Middle East. The US Military and its British allies launch strikes on more than 60 Houthi targets in Yemen.

We have the details and the fallout next. You're watching Beat THE PRESS now. Welcome back. I'm Yami Sha center in Washington where we continue to learn more about the U.

S Led strikes against whose targets in Yemen. It comes after recent search and attacks by Iran backed Houthis against shipping vessels in the Red Sea. And amid concerns that the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas could grow into a wider regional war. The US Led strikes targeted multiple locations throughout Yemen.

According to the US Air Force, it struck over 60 targets at 16 locations using more than 100 precision guided munitions. The statement following the military action, President Biden said the strikes were intended to send a quote, clear message that the US and his partners would not tolerate attacks on its personnel or the hostile actors imperil the crucial waterway. In response, Houthi leaders have said they will not back down and have vowed to retaliate. Now while speaking to reporters on Air force one, the NSC's John Kirby was questioned about a potential war with Yemen.

Perhaps in a war with Yemen. We're not interested in the conflicts of any kind here. In fact, everything the president has been doing has been trying to prevent any escalation of conflict, including the strikes last night. Joining me now is Courtney QB at the Pentagon.

So Courtney, tell us more about these strikes and what is this latest response by the US and uk Is it going to deter the Houthis and weaken some of their capabilities? Possibly. So the strikes were targeting some of those capabilities. So things like launchers, places where they were launching ballistic missiles and anti ship cruise missiles, warehouses where they kept their munitions and some of these one way attack drones, some of their commanding control sites.

So the idea here is to do just that, to try to deter future attacks. Like I tell you, mishino, they fired off the US and the British military. They fired off more than 150 precision guided bombs and missiles last night at more than 60 different targets. This was a huge bombing campaign that they undertook last night.

So while we don't have a good sense yet still of the battle damage assessment, you have to assume, they say the military officials here believe that it was successful of this targeting. You have to assume it was able to degrade at least some of the Houthis capability to carry out these attacks against commercial shipping and frankly military ships in the southern Red Sea. And that was the whole goal here, to try to deter this future attacks, but not just by taking out their capabilities, but also by sending a message to the Houthis and frankly back to Iran who backs the Houthis with funding, with equipment, with intelligence, sending the message to the both of them, if you continue to carry out these attacks and you threaten global commerce, the US and the British military at least will respond. And as you talk about that message, I was looking at the idea that we had that map up and you said huge bombing strike.

So can you talk a bit about how the countries in the region are reacting when you look at all the different countries that are surrounding that area? So it's actually been kind of a mixed reaction to me. So NATO ally Turkey has condemned it, saying that it has the potential to escalate the situation further. Saudi Arabia, who has a difficult and bloody relationship frankly with years of bombing campaign inside Yemen against the Houthis, they have also condemned it.

But keep in mind they have reached this current ceasefire with Houthis that's been holding now for more than a year, near going on two years actually. They do not want to get dragged back into any kind of a conflict in Yemen. They have condemned this. So has Oman who generally has a pretty good relationship with us, particularly military to military.

But it's not just the US Even though US and the British military were the ones who actually carried out these strikes last night, there were a number of other nations, including Australia who were supportive of the strikes. They play sort of a non operational role in supporting the strikes last night. And I have to say, remember there is this continued maritime, maritime operation. It's called Operation Prosperity Guardian.

This is a defensive maritime group that's come together. It's more than 20 nations now. They have been patrolling through that region trying to defend against continue through the attacks. This strike last night, these strikes, they were completely separate.

And apart from that, it's a totally different alliance now. Yamiche well, such important reporting, Ahmed, of course is a really important moment in this situation. So according to QB at the Pentagon. Thank you so much.

Thanks. Let me now bring in Bilal Saab. He is a founding director, the founding director of the Defense and Security Program at the Middle East Institute and a former senior advisor at the Pentagon. Thank you so much for being here.

Palau, I want to ask you, you have an article laying out the different options that the US could have taken against the Houthis. And you call the strikes inside them and quote, the least bad option. So what's your reaction to these strikes? Do they go far enough to of Houthi's attacks?

Believe it or not, I actually wrote that article before the strikes happened. I thought that was the most likely course of action and so happened to be it. Look, the President was presented with a number of options which I believe, frankly, all of them were bad. Then it became an issue of which one do you choose that is the least bad and potentially most effective, and that is the course of action that the United States and UK, along with a small number of other allies have pursued.

Look, it's a good or if I now see this as a million dollar question, Houthis themselves have already said that we're going to retaliate. So it might still lead to escalation. But the bottom line is that our entire position in the Middle east, our core interest in the Middle east, our enduring interest in the Middle east is to protect freedom of commerce and navigation. So the alternative of inaction or adopting a defense only posture was simply not going to work.

Now it's a matter of pairing that military instrument with hopefully some kind of a more invigorated diplomatic effort to try to come to a resol of the Gaza war and frankly called the bluff of the Houthis because the reason why they seem to be launching these attacks is to support Hamas and to end Israel's war against Gaza. So let's just do a much better job on the Gaza front in hopes that this would sort of change the calculus of the Houthis. I'm not sure it's going to work, but we can test that proposition. Why did you say you're not sure it's going to work?

So talk to us about how strategically significant the locations that were targeted are and could they possibly weaken Houthis capabilities? Well, I agree with Cornea. I mean, those were not small strikes. Obviously the lethality, the precision, the significance of them, they're all certainly noteworthy.

But the Houthis will have obviously tremendous amount of capabilities, all of it provided, as Corby suggested, and she's correct, by the Iranians. So this is the process, okay? This is not going to be a one off strike that is going to debilitate the Houthis. This is the process.

And if there's going to be a different path, you're going to have to up the ante a little bit more and escalate and try to Go after more sensitive targets and perhaps even leaders of the Houthis, which is going to require more accurate intelligence and hope they're going to have the capabilities to collect that really precious intelligence. I want to ask you about intelligence results of this idea that this ultimately goes back to Iran. Even the British Foreign Minister, Foreign Secretary David Cameron, he was talking about this being a message hunter for the Houthis, but also for Iran. So talk a bit about what impact that might have on Iran and look at turf.

Yeah, this is not a two way conversation for sure. This is a three way conversation. This is us, the Western coalition, the Houthis and then the Iranians. The Iranians are obviously involved.

They're invested, given the fact that they once again provide material assistance to the Houthis, whether it's the funding, whether it's the weapons, the training, and lately, of course, the intelligence to strike those targets in the Red Sea, without which simply the Houthis are incapable of waging those attacks. So is this going to dur the Iranians? We don't know. The honest answer is we don't know.

We also do not know what is the precise nature of the relationship between the Houthis and the Iranians. How much control the Iranians exercise over Houthis. We don't know that. But what?

We have to test all of these propositions as we continue to apply diplomatic pressure paired with some use of force, which I believe is not only legal but legitimate and necessary. And hopefully that combination with international cooperation will somehow deter the Iranians. And then briefly, I want to ask you, what might retaliation by Houthis look like? Increased attacks against commercial ships in the Red Sea.

They might be using weapons that we did not think of before. A combination of weapons, they can certainly make those attacks more deadly, more intense, more frequent, and once again, they have the capabilities. This is going to take us quite some time and I'm not going to put a specific key of time frame on this to actually severely degrade the capabilities of the Houthis. They've amassed a good amount over the years, inherited some from the previous regime in Sanaa and Yemen, and obviously some provided by the Iranians.

Yeah. Well, thank you so much for last stop. I really appreciate you coming on and bringing this all down for us. And up next, it's a countdown to election day at home and abroad as voters in Taiwan prepare to hit polls.

Hours from now, mid rising tensions and threats from China. They're watching with the press now. Welcome back to Iowa, where caucus voters will be caucusing in Just three days. But voters will be voting in the high stakes presidential election in Taiwan with polls that open in less than three hours.

On the eve of that consequential election, the Senate unanimously approved a resolution highlighting Taiwan's commitment to democratic elections despite the looming threat by Beijing. Joining now is Republican Senator from Alaska, Dan Sullivan, who along with Senator Tim Kaine introduced that bipartisan resolution on Taiwan on. Senator, thank you so much for joining us. We really appreciate it.

Thank you, Chris, and happy New Year from beautiful Alaska. Happy New Year to you. I do want to get to the elections in Taiwan, but first I want to ask you, of course, about the news that we have been talking about. President Biden ordering those airstrikes against Iran back targets in Yemen.

What was your reaction to learning that? Do you think that it went far enough? No, I don't think it went far enough. I've been encouraging the Biden administration for weeks to take much more aggressive action.

So I supported the strikes, but they were long overdue. But you know, those previous segment you just had on really gets to the heart of the matter and that's the broader appeasement strategies that the Biden administration has undertaken with regard to Iran. They reversed a number of initiatives that the Trump administration had put forward. And I've actually talked to the president and Jake Sullivan directly about hey re establishing deterrence with regard to Iran and in particular reimposing things like sanctions against the oil and gas sector, sanctions against their ballistic missile sector.

So this is something I think is going to take a long time to reestablish deterrence. And we can also start with the Houthis. I press Secretary Blinken, you know, they remove them from the list of organizations that sponsor terrorism. I press the secretary of state for last year and a half, hey, put the Houthis back on that list.

They're trying to kill Americans for goodness sake. So there's a lot more we can do that our government should be doing. But this was an important stat, was overdue. But I supported it.

You're calling an appeasement. The Biden administration would undoubtedly take issue with that word. They would argue they are trying to get their own nuclear deal back on track. You are calling for tougher measures, though, and I wonder if you can be specific.

What would those measures look like? For example, your colleague, Senator Lindsay Graham is arguing that the US should make strikes against the IRCG inside of US. That's something that you would support. Is that the type of tougher action that you're calling for?

Yes. Let me Just back up again because I do think it's important the context. During the Trump administration, yes we pulled out of jcpoa, although we launched the Trump administration launched a historic peace initiative. We reestablished the terms by killing Sulaimani that had the KUDZ for force and we initiated very broad based sanctions against their oil and gas sector.

By the end of the Trump administration the Iranians had about $4 billion in foreign reserves. That's actually not a lot. Now they have about $70 billion in foreign reserves. That enables them to fund their terrorist proxies, whether it's the Houthis, Hamas, Hezbollah.

So I think re establishing deterrence talks about I would certainly support what Lindsay Grant on the kinetic side. But like I said, I had a pretty long discussion with Jake Sullivan and the President saying you have bipartisan support to re establish very strong sanctions against Iranian oil and gas regime which is a huge source of their power. And you may have seen Christian, just a few weeks ago the UN sanctions against the Iranian ballistic mission missile sector expired. We should be pressing that again.

These aren't that difficult. You have Republican and Democratic senators supporting those kind of much more aggressive actions against Iran. And of course independent sectors have determined Iran is now closer to developing a nuclear weapon. But let me ask you, do you think that this is becoming a wider war center?

How concerned are you about that? Well, I'm concerned about it and I think everybody is concerned about it. But I think the way in which you avoid a wider war is to show much more toughness with regard to Iranian proxies. I don't think Iran wants a broader war.

And the key is whether it's Hamas, Hezbollah or the Houthis when they're taking action, particularly action Kristen. They've been doing this a lot just in last few weeks to kill American service members. That's where we need to draw the line. What happened with regard to deterrence previously was that the Iranians thought through the Kutzhorse that they could kill Americans with impunity.

You might remember the Suleimani and the Kutzh force ended up killing and wounding over 2,000American service members in Iraq through Iraqi Shia militias. That had to stop. And that's why I strongly supported and encouraged President Trump to kill the leader of the Kutzwar school money. We certainly reestablished deterrence back then.

And what I worry is of that deterrence is now unraveled. It's difficult to re establish deterrence. But if the president took much stronger actions against the Iranians kinetic and non kinetic sanctions, he would get support from both Democrat and Republican senators. I'm sure that.

Let me turn to Taiwan, Senator, and just ask you for your perspective about the elections there. Obviously, we are watching it closely here. For folks who are sitting at home wondering why Americans should care about this election, what is the answer and how concerned are you that the results of the election could further provoke China? Well, I think it's already provoking the Chinese Communist Party in Xi Jinping, and that is the concern.

So the elections, as you mentioned, Kristen, are actually tomorrow, that will be the eighth presidential election that the Taiwanese have had. That so very important. The inauguration of whoever the new president is isn't until May. So we are likely going to see a very volatile and possibly even dangerous period in the Taiwan Strait.

So what we need to be doing, I think it's starting to happen, is our government needs to show strong support and resolve for Taiwanese democracy and we need to enhance deterrence in the Taiwan spread. You mentioned the resolution that we passed in the Senate yesterday. We had 50 co sponsors on that resolution, Democrats and Republicans, liberals and conservatives. And then it passed unanimously in the Senate yesterday.

That's good news. That's the United States Senate showing not only the people of Taiwan, but the Chinese Communist Party in Xi Jinping. We support Taiwan democracy, and I think that's enormously important, important for our own national security interest, but to help the greatest people of Taiwan. Senator, let me ask you about the race for the White House.

Obviously, I am here in Iowa where former President Trump, according to the polls, has a very strong lead. We'll have to wait and see what happens on Monday. An increasing number of your colleagues are now endorsing the former president, including Senator Barrasso. Do you plan to endorse Mr.

Trump? But what I said is I plan to endorse the Republican nominee. And I think President Trump is looking quite strong in that regard. And look, I think one of the most important things we can be doing right now is just comparing the policies of the Trump administration with the Biden administration, because we've been talking about a very dangerous world.

Think about what's happened to the Biden administration. An invasion of Ukraine, a horrible, atrocious invasion of Israel, certainly supported by Iranian terrorist regime. Huge tensions in the China in the Taiwan Strait as we just talked about. And I think a lot of that has been, you know, driven by the Biden administration's weakness.

The president is cutting our military every year. This year's Department of Defense budget shrinks. The army shrinks, the Navy shrinks, the Marine Corps in terms of energy policies. We unilaterally surrendered that because Republicans are calling for budget cuts that would presumably impact defense spending in the military as well, would it not?

Well, during the, I'll tell you this, the second term of the Obama administration cut defense spending by almost 25% was actually one of the big reasons I ran for the US Senate as a Marine Corps officer myself. And during the Trump administration with the Republican Senate, we significantly. Well, there's a point because we significantly increased defense spending in readiness. And I think that is such an important issue right now.

By the way, Democrats support that President Biden has put forward three years in a row his budget cuts defense spending while significantly increasing all the other federal agencies. This is a huge policy issue where there's disagreement. I think President Trump and other Republicans have strong disagreeing with President Biden on this, Senator. But at the same time, just in terms of what's happening right now, you have Republicans, particularly in the House, who are calling for budget cuts that would inevitably impact defenseman.

But let me ask you about former President Trump, of course, when you talk about his foreign policy. He has called for pulling back from NATO. But I want to ask you about some of the headlines. This week.

He was before a D.C. appeals court. His lawyers argued that a president would be immune from prosecution even if he ordered the assassination of a political rival by Seal Team 6 unless he was impeached and convicted by the Senate. You, of course, voted to acquit former President Trump twice.

Do you agree with this interpretation of presidential immunity? Is he above the law? Look, I have not seen the details of the presidential immunity lawsuit, so I'm not going to comment on that. But what I do think is that all of these.

Do you think he's above the law? I, I do. I don't think anyone's above the law. But I do a lot more due diligence before I answer questions on a topic of that importance, not just listening from, you know, reading it from, from a news reporter.

But let me make a broader point here. I think it's an important one. All of these actions by different prosecutors, whether in Georgia or a couple in New York. You know, I think that what they're doing is they're only strengthening President Trump's support in the Republican Party.

The people should be the ones choosing the next president, not, you know, liberal prosecutors in New York. And I think that that's becoming a broader issue in these elections that are coming up. They're certainly becoming a broader issue with regard to what's happening in the Republican primarily manners. And of course, the indictments, the federal indictments that he's facing were brought by an independent special counsel.

Senator, I thank you for your time today. I have to say we did a fact check. It is colder here in Iowa than it is in Alaska today. So we thank you very much for joining us.

I hear you might be getting a big storm there. So. So hang in there. But it's always great to have beautiful snowy weather.

Certainly, we love in Alaska. We will. We're enjoying it here. Thank you so much, Denver.

Appreciate your time. Thank you. And when we come back from the break, we do have much more MEET THE PRESS now. Do stay with us.

Yamiche will pick up for Washington with new developments and turmoil on Capitol Hill. Hill, you're WATCHING THE PRESS now. Welcome back. While much of the political world is focused on Iowa right now, we're also keeping a close eye on Capitol Hill.

We are just one week away from a potential partial government shutdown and three weeks away from a potential complete government shutdown. Today, House Speaker Mike Johnson said he is sticking with a deal on top line spending numbers for 2024 that he reached with Democrats last week. But some in his party are opposed to the deal. Chairman of the Freedom Caucus Bob Good announced today that he opposes the agreement.

That makes it more likely that Speaker Johnson will have to rely on Democrats to keep the government open. Senior national political correspondent joins me now from Capitol Hill. So I'll break this all down. How much pressure is Secretary Johnson facing right now from the far right of his own party?

Hey, Yamiche. Well, it's substantial pressure because it comes from the same group of right wing troublemakers who ousted Speaker Johnson's predecessor, Kevin McCarthy. They've shown that they're willing to use score tactics to get what they want in this tiniest of tiny majorities and they're demanding that he walk away from the spending deal. But Johnson also faces pressure from other quarters from centrist Republicans who are telling him stick to this deal.

He has to keep his word here, as well as Senate Democrats and Senate Republicans who say it's important that he stick by his agreement on this top line spending deal. Yes, it's a little less spending than Kevin McCarthy got in his deal with President Biden. So there are wins for conservatives count here. But it's not enough for these right wing members.

And the question is, are they willing to take the L and go home and be content with these modest wins in the bag of government or the united trust of the drastic like they did with Kevin McCarthy and threaten his job. Of course, as you just mentioned, former Speaker Kevin McCarthy, this situation reminds me of exactly how he got out. So is there any talk, any pressure there of possibly Oskar Speaker Johnson? Well, it's certainly a lot of deja vu here, but there's no specific plot to oust Speaker Johnson, let's put it that way.

There's some Republicans, like most notably Texas Congressman Chip Roy, who have said this is the tool that is on the table if that spending deal isn't adjusted. He hasn't gone beyond that and explicitly threatened to do it. But there are other members, including in the Freedom Caucus, like Ralph Norman, who say it's not going to happen, that Mike Johnson is not going to get ousted so soon. Congressman Bob Good, who is one of those eight votes that overthrow Kevin Carthy and is currently the chairman of the Freedom Caucus, was a ridiculous opposition.

She didn't talk about overthrowing Mike Johnson just a few months into the job. So at the moment, his job doesn't appear to be in danger. But this is, you know, let's think of it as a love straw suddenly on camel's back. The honeymoon is over.

He's gonna have to figure out a way out of this jam and keep the government funded when he's got just four days and he's on Monday when Congress returns to get that job done. Quite the cop down. And I will underscore at the moment his job is not on the line. So thank you so much, Sahil, for your reporting.

And joining me now is the panel. On set is Mariana Sotomayor. She's congressional reporter for the Washington Post. Simone Sanders Townsend, former senior advisor to Vice President Kamala Harris and co host of the Weekend, which is premiering tomorrow on msnbc, Republican strategist Brad Todd.

So Mariana would come to you because we are using words like plot, like partial government shutdown versus complete government shutdown. It's all head spinning. Can you just break down what's going on in the Hill right now? Yeah, today I felt completely head spun around and literally had to say that to a couple of sources because that's what happens on Capitol Hill sometimes, especially when things are moving.

And yeah, we actually saw Johnson stick to his plan and stick to what a majority of Republicans in his conference want him to do. There are concerns about, you know, cutting spending, addressing the border. Those things are still happen, conversations still happening. But, you know, a lot of Republicans saying, we are still going to defend you.

You need to stick with this deal because it's already been baked in. They've wasted so many months last year to only get to a similar deal. So is the government going to shut down? It's a question mark.

I've been hearing from some sources that it's possible that they actually do a short term extension, which is something that Johnson has said he would not do to try and piece a far right. So any move that Johnson makes right now, he's going to get backlash from the far right, he's going to get backlash from the moderates. But that the fact that there is still some goodwill, the fact that there are Republicans, including from those hardline members who are saying we can't, we couldn't agree on anyone for three weeks. Who are we going to agree on next if we try and ask someone?

So as of right now, it's a little sticky. Sticky. Sticky is a good word. Sticky is a good word.

Simone. I want to also now turn, of course there's Iowa, just looking us down the road here. But there's also New Hampshire, which is where Senator Joe Manchin, our favorite center who just goes around touring right now, I'm not clearing that he's running for president, but touring and listening to people. I want to play a little bit of style from him in New Hampshire.

Here he is. And then you have to make a decision the character of that candidate, whether you agree or disagree, whether you support or haven't supported, whether you're in a political party or not. The people that are just telling me I'm going to vote for the Democrat because I'm a Democrat, I'm going to vote for Republican no matter who it is. That's bullcrap.

Vote for the person, vote for the best person who should be leaving this country. So that was Joe Manchin non committally answering a question for voter about who they should vote for. Again, he is someone who is a Democrat but he's not saying vote for Joe Biden. So tell me how worried to Democrats be when you have someone like Senator.

Those are the four on their side answering a question like that. Well, I was waiting for Senator Manchin to tell us who he thinks is the best person and I can tell him that he did not answer that question. Maybe partially because he hopes to be a pick for no labels. I don't think no labels is seriously considering a Senator Manchin, but I think Senator Manchin himself ought to be considered.

I think the thing that should keep Democrats up at night is not Joe Manchin and his town hall of New Hampshire, but rather the real threat of third Party candidates and what the Joe Manchin conversation represents, because that is very real. I think in this election, more so than any other in recent presidential election history, third parties really have the ability to do real damage. And all the data in history suggests that damage will be the Democratic candidate, Joe Biden, and not to whoever the Republican needed to be who we assume to be Donald Trump. Do you agree?

Talk a little bit about anything. Well, Joe Manchin is a pretty good weather vein. He's been tuned over many decades. And so I think if I were a Democrat, I would say that what I'd be most worried about is the fact that Joe Manchin, who is highly tuned to be a centrist weather vein, feels like it's not the popular thing to say that and this is evidence of Joe Biden's problems with independence.

He's got to win back independence if he's going to win re election. And he would need people who Joe Manchin is looking for for approval if that's going to win. And now talking more about sort of presidential politics, who would you rather be, Nikki Haley or Ron DeSantis? Well, Nikki Haley is closer to Donald Trump in an early state, so I'd rather be Nikki Haley.

She has momentum. And what we know about early primaries is that momentum really matters a lot. I do think she wants to finish second Iowa. I think if she's within one or two points, she'll try to satisfy expectations.

But she is a candidate with momentum in this race. And going for President Trump to get 50%, maybe this Iowa electorate, he got half that in 2016. So I think all the attention is focused on who's second. But there probably should be some credit given the fact he's gonna double his vote for 16.

Can I make a point about Nikki Haley? I think I too would if I was Ben lady put my bets on Nikki Haley. The concern, I think that Republicans who are, you know, putting, putting their chips in Nikki's basket is what happens after New Hampshire. Let's just say she does well in Iowa, she wins or comes up very close second in New Hampshire.

Nevada, she's participating in the state run primary, not the primary run caucus. And South Carolina, she's not favored to win. There has not been a nominee for president, let alone a president who has gotten the nomination and won the presidency and lost their home state. That's a good, that's a really good point.

I also want to turn to the really big issue in Iowa, which is the weather. Brianna, you've been there, you've covered the caucuses how much of an impact do you think this could have? These are people who are used to cold, but this is a different kind of cold and different kinds of snow. Yeah, I mean, we have seen all week a number of these candidates canceling events simply because you can't get to them.

And that is something that I have experienced and driving through that as a Floridian do not recommend. But most people, to your point, sure, they might know to drive and get there, but it is a problem. It is a legitimate turnout problem. And we've seen candidates like Nikki Haley telling a lot of people, listen, I know the weather is gonna be bad, but please carefully, safely try and get there because the problems that we wanna fix is much bigger than a snowstorm.

So please turn out. And I wanna ask you about, of course, Donald Trump, who is leading the Republican nomination there. He, his lawyers this week were in court saying that he could assassinate a political rival using SEAL Team 6. And if he wasn't impeached and convicted by the Senate, he would not be able to be criminally held by that.

Of course, to me, in my mind connects to the fact that Trump said YouTube someone like that. What do you make of where we are now? And the fact that Trump is still able to hold on to voters, even delor those rule voters, he's holding on. Well, I'm not lawyer, but I would tell you that that' and typically these cases, lawyers don't really listen to the political advisors.

And so we'll see if it has an impact going forward. There are a lot of Republican voters who want to be on his side in a lot of these cases. So the manner which he conducts himself in the case probably will determine whether they take his side. Is that politics?

Everyone but Donald Trump, who voters are saying, well, yeah, I kind of like the fact that he's strong. A lot of rules have not applied to him in politics for sure for quite a long time. Part of this because voters seem as a disruptor and they think that he doesn't mean everything he says and they will is willing to say things that weren't scripted for him. And so that level of candor that he gives off also gives him a lot of latitude with a lot of voters.

Last 30 seconds, Simone. I mean, what do you mean? I think that people should take Donald Trump at his word. But we know now that it went on during the Trump administration and we just know a sliver of the details of what happened.

I think that the former president does mean what he says. I think it's so outlandish, though it is hard for people to believe. But I encourage people to watch this actions. Yeah.

Watch his actions and see sort of how this all goes. I am so thankful for all of you for being here, for talking us through this. Harriet, Simone, Brad, thank you, of course, at home, for watching and thank you for walking back as I came back from maternity leave. Kristen Walker will be back on Monday with a special Iowa Cause day edition of Meet the Press Now.

And if it's Sunday, it's MEET the PRESS live from Iowa on your local NBC news station. And we're also back Monday night for special live coverage of the Iowa caucus. The news continues with Hallie Jackson straight ahead. I'm Craig Nol.

Cheers. Cheers. Cheers. I've always been a glass half full kind of guy, and now I'm talking to some people who look at the world that way, too.

It's really fascinating folks who share their defining moments, their triumphs, their challenges, their stories are fun and organic. So I hope you'll join me each week. Who knows, you might just come away with your own class. Half Full.

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