Meet the Press NOW — January 23

All right, We're gonna go and fight until the very last poll closes and then we're headed to my sweet state of South Carolina. This is the lift for your guy. State. Let's make it a lift for your guy.

I love this state. We've done well here before in 2016, I came here, I said I needed a victory and I won by 21 points. Thank you, everybody. Welcome to Meet the Press.

Now I am Kristen Welper, NBC News election headquarters in New York. And voters are voting New Hampshire. Primary polls are open and we will go out live to some of those polling sites in just a few moments. But first, here are the six on the Republican side.

This would be the contest that decides whether the race for the presidential nomination keeps on going. Nikki Haley has a two person race against former President Trump she's been hoping for, but she's got a massive deficit to overcome. The the pre election polls outside of polling place earlier today. Haley dismissed tonight as a make or break moment for her campaign, vowing to continue on to her home state of South Carolina next month.

We're going to South Carolina. We have put in the ad buy. We're there. This is, this has always been a marathon.

It's never been a spread. We want to be stronger in Iowa. We want to be stronger than New Hampshire. We're going to be even stronger than that in South Carolina.

We're running the tape. Meanwhile, former President Trump is hoping to make some mystery today. A win in New Hampshire would make him the first non incumbent Republican to win both Iowa and New Hampshire ever. It would put him in historically dominant position to win the nomination.

And ahead of tonight, he's been painting himself as the inevitable winner. Every day the Republican Party is becoming more and more unified. And it is. And you see what happened.

We started off with really, if you add some Democrats into it, we started off with 13 and now we're down to two people. And I think one person will be gone probably tomorrow and the other one will be gone in November. I'll have to wait and see. Right.

But there is an unusual Democratic race happening tonight, twofold with President Biden not on the ballot. We're gonna get a whole lot more info on that a little bit later on the hour. But with just hours until the polls close, our teams have been on the ground all day long talking to the most important voices in this election, the voters, of course. Here's some of what those voters told us today.

Nikki Haley or Donald Trump? Nikki Haley uni. Nikki Haley too. How did you guys make up your mind.

We heard her sneak at Hampshire Hills. We have been following her for a while and just feel like she's the most positive person at the job all the way. Trump, are you considering Nikki Healy? Never.

Were you guys considering a Rod DeSantis or somebody before they dropped out? No. I wrote in Joe Biden and tell me a little bit about that. So I think he's gonna be an on me.

So I would rather come out here and kind of support someone with kisses. That's transplant. And who do you guys vote for? Dean Phillips.

Tell me a little bit about why you decided to vote for Dean Phillips. Because he's young and energetic. I had the opportunity to meet him the other day, and he's just. I just like his policies and he's a younger president.

I mean, nothing against Joe Biden. Nikki Hilliard, Donald Trump. Trump, of course. Trump, of course.

Reconsidering anybody else? No. No. There you have it.

Von Hilliard is a polling site in Milford and Dasha Burns is where voters are voting in Nashua. You guys have been crisscrossing the state and frankly the country leading up to these primary contests. So thank you for joining me. Von, let me start with you just while you're talking to voters.

And I just think your interviews have been so fascinating throughout the day. V including that voter who said, yeah, he was considering Nikki Haley and ultimately he decided to vote for Trump. What are your key takeaways after your conversations with voters throughout the day? Right.

The one fellow making his decision literally this morning, he said part of it was number one, Donald Trump's history. The fact he feels like he knows what Trump a presidential administration would look like and the second party said was though him coming to the belief that Donald Trump was in a better position to beat Joe Biden in November than Nikki Haley. Milford is a place that Donald Trump in the general election, Clinton won by about 500 votes back in 2016. But in 2020, Joe Biden beat Trump by just about 34 votes here.

So this is a place of Republicans, Democrats, independents. And that couple that you heard from that said that they were supporting Nikki Haley here. They were in fact registered independence that Belgian port to come out here. So to support her bid.

And you know, I've had conversations with a gentleman named Frank told me his only fear about Donald Trump not winning the Republican primary here in New Hampshire and his frustration is that that independents are allowed in state to take partisan. We're looking at upwards of potentially as high as 40, 45% of the electorate today. Not being Republicans, but being independents. And at a critical time like this, they could very well make a significant impact in these race.

That is why we are watching them so very closely. Vaughn, and I'm curious, have you talked to these voters about the issues that they care about most? I know that the economy is up there for almost all voters across all political stripes, but what are they saying to you about what's driving them to the polls today? It is not only the economy, immigration, we are repeatedly told is at the forefront of minds, but also for Donald Trump, it's even beyond issues as much as it is this greater idea of strength.

And I ask folks time again, including over the last 24 hours, what they're looking for out of a leader. Why Donald Trump? And they say strength because they believe Trump on the world stage has a different prominence and they truly believe that if he were in White House that there would be different engagements from the US with not only in Ukraine but also in Israel. And for the voters here, it is something where when they talk about Nikki Haley, they say that it is less guaranteed and less of a known entity.

And frankly, Nikki Haley's run for 11 months now for president of the United States, but has made not enough end roads with so many of these voters and convincing them they should be assured that not only against Joe Biden, but sure that as a Republican president, president of the White House. Well, you know, Dasha, let me turn to you with that. We have watched the Haley campaign really shifted expectations around Governor Sununu about a month ago saying that Nikki Haley could win in the landslide. Now he's saying, hey, second place looks pretty good.

What are they really hoping for tonight in order to stay in this race, in order to be able to make the case that she should stay in this race and go on to compete in her home state of South Carolina. Doesn't that sound a little familiar to you, Kristen? A little bit of vu happening here. The reason I say that is because it really does feel like in many ways, New Hampshire is to Nikki Haley what Iowa was to Ron DeSantis.

That was the state he went all in. Nikki Haley went all in here. This was the most fertile ground for her for her campaign to potentially do well and to try to slow Trump and his march to the nomination or try to stop him here. Just like the Santas, they were saying that they could win.

Now they're saying second place. And Haley has repeatedly refused to really define what success would look like to her here. Now we saw what happened to Desantis after his distance place finish in Iowa. The question is what happens to Haley.

She had said just today that if she does not win here, she does not plan to drop out. She says she planned to head to South Carolina and beyond Again. We've heard that from candidates before, very recently in fact. And then plans change once they saw the actual outcome.

And I know, Dasha, that you have been talking to voters as well. What are they telling you about the state of the race and what are in particular the undeclared voters saying to you on this election day? Well, look, top issues, interestingly similar to what Vaughn is hearing. The economy, immigration, huge.

Not just at the southern border but for folks in New Hampshire, they're thinking about the northern border as well and they are trying to figure out who is the best person to lead this country. I want you to listen to some conversations. Can you tell me would you willing to share who cast her out for? Because I think she's strong on foreign affairs and I think she's a strong conservative.

Why not Donald Trump? Because as she says, chaos follows him whether it's right or wrong. And I think that we're ready to move on. If he becomes the nominee, would you vote for him in the general?

I will. So who did you cast her out for? She's the only Republican left who's not Donald Trump. So was it an anti Trump vote?

Just tell us why it was important for each show up and vote today. I am terrified about what's happening in our country. I am heartbroken and I think we need somebody that gets it. Somebody that's strong, somebody that loves this country and isn't bought and paid for by crutch methods.

Who do you think that is? Donald Trump. My second choice would be Nikki Haley. No, I'm sorry.

My second choice would have been DeSantis and Kristen. Another conversation that really struck me was a gentleman who just changed his mind this morning as he was walking into Cass's ballot. He had planning to vote for Nikki Haley who said he ultimately voted for Donald Trump because he feels like he is just going to be the candidate that the primary is going to be over from here. That is of course a narrative that Nikki Haley is trying to beat back with all her might.

But that is the mountain that she's trying to climb right now. It is a mountain and the margins are going to be so significant this evening. It will give us a lot of insight into whether she has climbed that mountain. Dasha and Vaughn, thank you for your tremendous reporting and interview.

Such great stuff. We're of course, going to check in with you throughout the evening in our special coverage tonight. But joining now for a look at how the Trump campaign sees today's primary is the candidate, son Eric Trump. Eric, thank you so much for joining me.

I really appreciate it. You're welcome, Kristen. So let's talk about the stakes tonight. You hopefully just heard the reports by Dasha and Vaughn.

Your father has said this morning that tonight's results are gonna look a lot like Iowa's results. What are you expecting? What's a win for the former president? Well, listen, this tremendous love and that's really been all the polling locations, a lot of them.

And every time I go to one, the amount of people like coming over are hugging me. I'm sorry for your family's gone through. I'm so sorry for what they put you through. We love you.

Your father's help for our country. We want a strong America back. We want patriotism back. We want red, white, blue back.

We want our country back. We want our economy and jobs. We want all those things back. We want to be respected around the world.

And I hear that over and over and over. And I'm telling you, I was in the campaign in 2016. I was in the campaign in 2020. And I'm telling you, the enthusiasm today is better than either of those two years.

I've never seen such love and such passion. I think we're gonna have truly amazing night tonight. Eric, just to go. And it's fascinating to hear your perspective because you were there in 2016 and 2020.

What does a win look like from your father's perspective? Does he need to win by double digits in order to, as he is signaling, try to say, hey, I got this thing locked up. How's he going by? Yeah, I think we're going by great victory.

I really do. I mean, you saw Iowa, right? The biggest victory in Iowa state history was 12 points. We won that stake by 31 points.

Right. And so we had a big win. We had another maze of win tonight. And then we got Nevada and Haley's night in ballad in Nevada.

And then we go to South Carolina, which is her home state. And literally we're polling 5 to 1, 4 to 1, 5 to 1 to take Haley, South Carolina. So it wasn't different. Much of a path to victory of any kind of victory.

And then we go to Super Tuesday. And you know how well all the states align with us. And so I'm proud. My father, he's endured the unthinkable over the last Three years.

What they put him through is just unbelievable. And I think you see the people, you know, American patriots were coming out of the woodwork. They want, they want to vote for him. They want our country back.

They want strength for America again. And Ellis in Iowa person was negative 25 degrees and we have record turnout. I think it's the same thing here. I think it's an amazing turnout because people just want a strong person back in control of this country and they believe that person is on the front.

I want to just be very clear though, Are you. Do you expect a double digit? Is that what a victory looks like? And if so, will your father then call for Nikki Haley to drop out of the race aside, if any win, frankly, Nikki Haley to drop out of the race, she can't be in the next state.

Will he call for that error if you expect. If he wins? I absolutely believe that we will expect Nikki Haley to drop out of the race. Now, whether or not she does, and that's ultimately her call.

But I think a lot of Republicans have already asked her to drop out of the race. At the end of the day, all eyes should be on the most incompetent president of this country ever had. That's Joe Biden. There's no disputing that we're not winning in any way, shape or form.

We're not winning from a military standpoint. We're not winning from an economic standpoint. We're not winning from an educational standpoint. America's just not winning right now.

We should be number one at everything we do. That's the America first policy and really platform. And we have to go back to pointing as a country. We're not doing that right now.

And I think Republicans universally are wanting to see out of the race after tonight. If she loses for the second time in a week, knowing that she's gonna lose in another weekend in Nevada, actually she can't win that race. Obviously. She's not even in the caucus there.

And then knowing that she's not gonna win her home state of South Carolina. I think it'd be pretty embarrassing at that point for Nikki Haley to begin. I want to talk about some of the things that Nikki Haley has said about you. Daddy talked about what he has been through.

Nikki Haley talks about it in the context of the chaos that seems to follow him. Whether fair or not. I'm going to play a little bit of her sound and get your reaction on the other side. Do you think he's mentally fit to hold presidency?

I think he's mentally fit. The problem is, do you want two 80 year olds running for president? I mean, seriously, in the military you have to retire at 65. You know, you don't have surgeons doing surgery at 80.

There's multiple things. It's just a fact that people start to decline. And when you've got a country in disarray and a world on fire the way we do, you need someone at the top of their game that can put in eight years, they can go and get things back on track. That's what this is about.

What do you say to that? What do you make to the other part of her argument that chaos seems to follow your father as she says? Well, if it was on top of her game, she would have lost Iowa by 31 points. Right?

So if she's on top of her game, she'd be pulling ahead, you know, in New Hampshire, a state random tenants and Democrats can go in and vote for, you know, in the caucuses. And you know, she's not going ahead here. She's clearly not gonna win her own state of South Carolina. So I wouldn't exactly say she's top of her game.

I mean, if she can't win a state that she was a governor in, I wouldn't exactly say the top of the game. And you know, she forgot to file the paperwork in Nevada to be on the ballots. Right. To participate in the caucuses.

I wouldn't exactly call that top of the game. But at the end of the day, we've got a couple hours before, you know, the voting. Let's see what happens tonight. And my father plays heart and soul into this race.

He loves his heart and he's last president. He does not need to be doing this. He's one candidate who does not need to be doing this. His life would be exponentially better, you know, at Mar A Lagoa with his grandkids, playing golf, having a great time.

But he loves this country. He loves this nation. He sees our nation, you know, going down the tubes. He calls it a nation in decline.

We have single handedly the worst president that we've ever had in the history of this nation on every quantifiable front. And even them Democrats are saying that's why your own polling as to Biden is atrocious for him. And we gotta get our grits on this country again. We've gotta focus the economy, we got to gain our respect around the world.

We got to stop these wars. And we're seeing our warships have missile shot at them every single day. Well, The Biden administration has. The Biden administration has Italian.

We should say that you're referencing the economy, that the unemployment has come down, inflation has come down significantly. You had 10% inflation for the first three years. That was massively outpacing wage growth in this country. No one can say that the economy is good.

The argument is that there are signs that inflation's coming down. But can you just respond to my question of Nikki Haley's argument that she continues to make on the campaign trail, which is that chaos seems to follow your father. She says, fair or not. And you heard that voter reiterate that point.

Speak to that voter, Eric, who's concerned about supporting your father because of what Nikki Haley calls the chaos that seems to follow him, fair or not, in her words, from the day my father got in, they did the fake Russian investigation in hosts, then they did impeachment. I, they didn't impeachment. Two, they made up smears about his Supreme Court justices. Then when that didn't work, they took every DA and every AG in every liberal city across the country and they went after him.

When that didn't work, they went to Colorado and they pulled him off the Colorado ballot. When that came worked, they went to Maine, they pulled him off the main ballot. This is what they do. It's called the weaponization of government.

And the whole country sees it. And I know the media doesn't want to care about it, but the whole country sees exactly what these people are trying to do. So my father's the anti establishment person. You know, he's bucking the system and the system is revolting.

And frankly, it's the exact person we need because America can't continue like this. We're no better than, you know, a third world country if we allow our system to be weaponized by three letter agencies. Eric, we should note that the indictments that your father is facing were handed down by grand juries. Of course, the impeachments you referenced were bipartisan to some extent.

But let me, let me just ask you, looking forward, let's say your father does win this. Let's say that he locks this up. Ultimately, he has said he thinks he knows who his VP nominee is going to be. Can you give us some insight into how I know you're not going to give us a name here?

Now, how close is he to making that decision if he in fact is the nominee? Yeah, with how the management is, I can make that for a spectacle or even name potential names out there. He'll pick somebody that's great. And he will disrupt.

He understands the system. He just wants to get back to these. If he wants to get back to fix your army, fix your military, gaining respect again, he wants to get back just to the very basic, let's stop these sideshows. Let's put America first.

Let's make America great again. We should be number one in everything that we do as a country, and we're far from it right now. He wants a vaccination. The last thing that at this point is like he needs to be doing.

But he loves red, white and blue. I do as a son, as I stand by side every single day on campaign trail, he's going to fix this country. And, you know, as we go into the second primary, I couldn't be more proud as a son. I could not be more proud of the arrows he's had to take, you know, what they put him through and how the man just has unbelievable backbone.

He's a remarkable individual. And I stand here today as a grandson. All right, Eric Trump, thank you. Stay closed after.

We're going to be on air throughout the night, so we'll check back in with you. We really appreciate your time this afternoon. Thank you so much for joining us on Election Day. Thank you.

And coming up, we are digging deeper into Nikki Haley's underdog fight against former President Trump in New Hampshire and beyond. Daily Supporters and former Governor Larry Hogan will be right here on set with me. You don't want to miss this conversation. Plus, you're looking live at Democracy at Work in Rochester, New Hampshire.

We are on the ground talking directly to voters as they cast their ballots. Do not go anywhere. You're watching me, the president. Welcome back.

As we mentioned, former Governor Nikki Haley is looking to pull off a major upset tonight in New Hampshire in hopes of keeping her 2024 biff for the White House alive. Joining now on set is former Republican governor for Maryland, Larry Hogan. He has endorsed Mikki Haley in the Republican presidential primary. Thank you, Governor, for being here.

I appreciate it. Let's talk about tonight. New Hampshire is the state of comebacks. Yeah, that's exactly right.

Can she be a comeback kid tonight? What do you think? I'm still hoping that there's a shot. Look, I mean, New Hampshire surprises a lot of people almost every, every time.

Look at Bill Clinton, the comeback kid, you know, second place. But it changed the whole trajectory campaign. You'll get John McCain. And so I think it's a place where surprises happen.

And, you know, I get the whole narrative is that Trump's Gonna just roll over this. But I think depends on the turnout. If a lot of independents show up, I think she's got a shot and I think we're looking at the margin and the expectations. And if she overperforms expectations and with one folks amount, I think she's get a little granular with me, if you would.

What does that look like if she. Let's say she doesn't win. Let's say she keeps her loss though to within 10 points. Is that a win tonight?

I mean when does she declare victory and say, hey, I still have a path here? Well, it is a two person race. I mean we don't know how long that race is gonna last or who's win the race. But it is Nikki Haley versus Donald Trump and tinnitus is really, there's a lot riding on it.

I can't say exactly what the number is. I think she pulls up, I think it changes the entire trajectory as she heads to South Carolina, her home state, and maybe changes the dynamic down there where they voted for her twice. If she falls short. But it's still close.

I think it depends on, I mean she's got a tough decision making. It's a big margin, but if it's smaller, I think she's got the money to continue. She's going to continue message. Trump's continuing that problems every week and it's about a month away.

So if she can hang it in, I think getting within 10 points with certainly big, it's more than 20 points. She has a tough decision to make. I think about whether she wants to go to her home state and get embarrassed and whether she has the money to hang there for another month. You take me to my next question because if you look at the electorate, New Hampshire really seems to be the most fertile ground for Nikki Haley.

Tailor made for Nikki Haley. 40% of voters, they're independent. And I guess the question is if she can't win in New Hampshire, where can she win? How can she win her own state?

Well, it's a great question. I mean it is a place where independence can have a big influence. I think it's not like Iowa at all. So, you know, Iowa was kind of an anomaly and we all expected a big win for Trump.

She was down 2%. It was actually surprised that she was able to catch desant. The narrative changed the last minute because the poll came out and said she was beating Santis. But really it's not gonna be like that.

She's not gonna lose by 30, 40 points or whatever the Number was down there. It's closer. And I think we may. I'm hoping we're gonna be for surprise, but I think it's gonna be much, much closer.

You think it's gonna be closer? I was in New Hampshire. I was talking to a lot of the former ambassadors supporters who said, boy, she's going all in in these final days. They wish they had seen that kind of vigor and fire from her earlier.

Some of the jabs that she's taking against former President Trump, she sharpened his attacks. Is it too little, too late? Well, that's what we're gonna find out in about four hours. I guess you wish you'd seen it earlier.

I've been crying out for this from the beginnings were there. And I said, if you're gonna challenge Trump, you've gotta challenge Trump. And I think everybody was just a little too easy on him for a long time. And I'm hoping it's not too little too late, but I like to do this.

The new Nikki, I like her being more aggressive. If she doesn't win tonight, if. Let's say she does go to South Carolina, doesn't win there, if, if you decide, if she decides there is no path for her. I want to ask you about your political future.

Would you be open to it? I know you said you would be a third party run in the future. Where are you right now on that decision? Right now I'm really focused on hoping that he can win this race because I really want to see the Republican Party return to a more traditional Republican Party, a bigger tent party that can feel more people.

And I think Nikki Haley is that person. She's beating Joe Biden by 17 points. She has a much wider appeal than Donald Trump does. And I haven't really been open to the idea.

I just haven't slammed the door completely. It's not something I'm pursuing. But I can tell you about 70% or more of the people in America do not want a choice between Joe Biden and Donald Trump. And so if you don't want choice A or choice B, they're making somebody put up a choice C.

Yeah. The folks at no Labels are watching the field very closely. Have you been in touch with them recently? Have you had any conversations with them?

I talked to a lot of folks involved in the group. I resigned at the end of last year as a co chairman with Joe Lieberman. But a lot of them are still, you know, I'm getting a lot of phone calls still trying to, you know, shake me down and encourage you returning the phone calls. That's the truth.

And just finally, Governor, do you still consider yourself a Republican? I'm a lifelong Republican. You know, I was, you know, I was a chairman of Youth for Reagan. I'm a real Republican.

I say something Republican wing of the party. I'm a little disappointed in where the party's gone, the direction. But I don't give up. I think we got to continue to fight so we can have a healthy and competitive party system.

Do you still feel like you still consider yourself a part of this Republican Party? Well, about half of this Republican Party doesn't like Donald Trump. So I consider myself part of that part of the party. Okay.

Governor, thank you for being here. Great to see you in person. Thank you. Watching closely to see what happens coming up next.

It's not just Republicans. New Hampshire Democrats are heading to the poll today, too, for President Biden's not on the ballot. We're going to explain why next. And speaking of voting, it's time for you to plan when and where you're casting yours.

Go to NBC news.com plan your vote to get information on key races in your state, changes in voting rules from the last election cycle and when and how to vote in your state's primary election. We'll be right back with more MEET THE press. Now. Welcome back.

The first polls close in New Hampshire in about two and a half hours and we've got our attention squarely on tonight's primary results. Joining me at the big board for a look at what to expect tonight is my friend Chuck Todd, NBC News chief political analyst. Chuck, great to see you. We were just in New Hampshire.

Here you are at the big board. So wash your shoes. Yeah, exactly. We put our warm shoes away.

What are you looking for for tonight? What are the key counties? Well, I'll say this. You know, we talk about turnout and it's obvious you're talking about turnout, but sort of the math equation of the turnout.

Right. This is 2016 I want to show you here. All right. The 2016 primary which featured Donald Trump was fascinating because it was an active Democratic primary president featuring a guy named Bernie Sanders.

Right. Neighboring state, he won in a rump. And it's important because in the Republican primary, just 3% of Republican primary voters are seldom scribed as Democrat. It is the only time since we've been exit polling New Hampshire that the self described Democrat number in a Republican primary was in single digits.

So tonight, what does Nikki Haley need? She needs this to be in the 10 to 15 range of Democrats and she needs this number of independents probably to be closer to 45. And then you start to see what I'm coming up with, right? Suddenly there's a majority of I and D has a lot of green, horrible hammering there.

And you want to get this number right below 50. It is the only way. Now, here's a problem with that scenario. Let's say all this comes into place and Haley wins.

She's won without Republican vote. Right. And this is why. The good news for her is there's no primary likely answer.

Maybe the Michigan primary has some rules that can create a makeup like this. So that's why, if she can't win here, where does she win? But what I'm watching for tonight is how big is this Democrat number? And we're gonna know that right at the polls early.

Krista, how big is that number? How much in double digits is it? Can she get the combined non Republican vote over 50%? That's the key.

Whether she's competitive or not. We can talk about little places she could do well, but that's the number one thing I'm watching right now. And Chuck, it's worth mentioning, I mean, look, she was kind of running neck and neck with Trump when it came to independence, and now he's. She's pulled ahead a little bit, but not nearly enough.

Right. I want to show you a few other previous results from New Hampshire just to remind people sort of the quirky nature of this electorate in New Hampshire. I love the 2012 Republican primary because you had an establishment who was a little more conservative at the time. In Romney, you had a very far right candidate in Ron Paul, and then you had John Hunstman, who in many cases is Nikki Haley.

Right. Sort of very moderate Republicans. You can see the makeup here. Right.

Huntsman and Kasa were very similar candidates. Paul here. So the formula for this tonight, right, is I expect Trump has essentially taken all those Paul supporters and they're now his. He's got about half of that old rounding number.

You know, can't you get everybody else? It's a tough thing because it's tough to create a coalition of I'm not him. Right. It's tough to create passion on it.

And I know that we're looking particularly around places like Manchester to see if she can drive up turnout there. What was notable about Iowa, of course, she did get the turnout in places she needed. Manchester is a place that would be watching closely to see what the turnout looks like if it's big. And the areas around Manchester, it could be a good sign for her.

Well, look, you can see here, right, look in the past years, obviously this is where John Casey won some counties down here in around Manchester, up here in around Berlin and some places he did well in the Vermont border as well. Those are places Nikki Haley expects to do well. Another way to look at this map that we like to look at, I didn't even do that. Is to look at the overall presidential split.

If you look at it from the 20, you know, during the Clinton Trump in 16 and essentially just look at the blue counts. Yeah, right. Nikki Haley has to be the blue counts, essentially. It's as simple as that.

She needs to do well there. All right. Chuck Todd, so great to see you. We will see you tonight.

We are in for a long night together. And we will see you tonight for more special coverage which continues at 5pm Eastern right here on NBC News now. And you're looking live right now at Biden campaign event in Northern Virginia. President Biden and Vice President Harris are appearing together at an event focused on abortion rights.

It's an issue that has animated Democratic voters since Rovers and Wade would overturn and one that Democrats are hoping to make a major focus of the 2024 campaign. And speaking of Democrats, there is a Democratic race happening in New Hampshire today, sort of the DNC just as a refresher stripped New Hampshire of its first donation primary status, making today's primary there largely symbolic for Democrats. President Biden isn't even on the ballot as no delegates will be awarded based on tonight's results. But Congressman D.

Phillips, who challenging Biden for the Democratic nomination is still in the Granite State today greeting voters at poll locations. NBC News White House correspondent Rich Mel is in Mary Mack, New Hampshire and has more on the Democrats drama. And Mike, you have been all over this part of the primary. Just explain to people there is a write in campaign for President Biden.

He's not a part of it. But from Democrats perspective, both in New Hampshire and outside of New Hampshire, it's serious business, right? Yeah, absolutely. Kristen, I don't need to remind you what happened here four years ago because you were with me at that polling place in Manchester when candidate Joe Biden showed up after just announcing that he was gonna be leaving the state to head to South Carolina to try to plant his flag.

And that must win state. We know what then happened that helped propel him to the White House despite a poor showing in New Hampshire. And so we set a calendar through the DNC that put South Carolina, not New Hampshire at the front of the list. When the filing period closed and President Biden chose not to file here in New Hampshire, there was no write in campaign.

There was really nothing organized to support him. And so everything that has come together here in the last few months has really been on very short notice and not a lot of money. It's a campaign without a candidate. But as I've been talking to organizers throughout the week, and they do feel that they've been successful in getting the message out about the importance of supporting Joe Biden through this write in campaign.

And if it's going to succeed, it's going to be because of places like this. This is a very heavily Democratic ward in the state. The Turnout here was 90% Democrat in the 2020 primary. But the story so far as we've been talking to voters here is about what those undeclared voters are.

The setup with shots couldn't have been better because the overwhelming majority of those undeclared voters in this polling place are choosing to vote in the Republican primary. We actually even talked to a Democrat, a registered Democrat who voted, who chose to write in not Joe Biden's name, but Nikki Haley's name. So this is a lot of concern about Donald Trump potentially winning this nomination, an anti Trump message. And so far a lot of that is actually manifesting as a Nikki Haley vote, not necessarily a Joe Biden vote.

Talk about some of the jitters inside the Democratic Party. Mike, I interviewed Senator Hassan over the weekend in New Hampshire and I said, look, how confident are you that you're going to win the writing campaign? She was very honest. She said writing campaigns are complicated.

I mean, you have to explain to people that they have to write in the president's name. And the optics of that are significant. Yeah. And it's interesting because Senator Hassan, as well as others in the congressional delegation, they were as critical as you could be of President Biden of the DNC for trying to take this primary away from New Hampshire.

But they are now the very same ones who are leading this write in effort so strongly. But they there is no roadmap for this. Kristen. The last time we saw an incumbent president seeking a second term not filed in this New Hampshire primary was Lyndon Johnson.

He got a disappointing showing, less than 50%, and he was out of the race three weeks later. And that's really the lesson that Democrats are hoping is not repeated tonight. It's such an important piece of historical context. Mike Memley, as always, so great to see you.

Thank you for your fantastic reporting on the ground. Really appreciate it. After the break, we will hear from the daily campaign and she wants to keep a two person race for becoming a one man show. You're watching the PRESS now.

Stay with us. Welcome back. Ahead of tonight's primary, RNC chairman Ryan McDaniel has given a statement to NBC News that seems like a bit of a warning for the Haley campaign after losing in Iowa and now the underdog in New Hampshire. In the statement, McDaniel writes, quote, the Republican primary is up to the voters and we've never had a Republican nominee who did not win at least Iowa or New Hampshire.

If President Trump comes out strong tonight, that's a clear message being sent from our primary voters. Joining me now is Olivia Perez Cubas, national spokesperson for the Nikki Haley campaign. Thank you so much for joining me. I really appreciate it.

Thanks for having me. I want to give you the opportunity to respond to that statement from the RNC chairwoman. It doesn't change anything for us. Look, Nikki has always been a political outsider.

She won governor of South Carolina twice as the anti establishment Tea Party conservative. She's never had the backing of the support of political elites or Washington insiders. She didn't have a then, she doesn't need it now. It doesn't she change anything for us.

The only support endorsement Nikki wants are voters. This is let me read you a little more of what she says. She says, quote, republicans know that if we're not united as a party behind our nominee, we won't be able to beat Biden. That's why we had our candidate sign the Biden pledge to be on our debate stage.

Unity is key. It effectively sounds like she's saying if Ambassador Haley doesn't have a strong showing tonight in New Hampshire, it's time for her to reevaluate her campaign. Is that how you take this statement from the RNC chairwoman? And is there any consideration about dropping out if she doesn't win?

There's plenty of time for Republican voters to unite behind the nominee, which will be Nikki Haley. And I can say this much, America does not do coronations. This is a democracy. One state has voted.

Less than 1 1/2% of Iowa voters out of 3 million voted for Donald Trump. This race is just getting started, Nikki. Just a few months ago she was at 2% of the polls in a race where 14 candidates were vying to be president of the United states. She got 20 in Iowa and it is now a two person race here in New Hampshire.

We're just getting started. Our goal is we're strong in Iowa to be even stronger in New Hampshire. And she takes it home to South Carolina where voters have elected her as governor there not just once, but twice before. So we're looking forward to it and we're gonna earn the vote, the support of every voter.

Olivia, can you give me specifics about what that looks like? You talk about doing even better in New Hampshire than you did in Iowa. What specifically do you feel like Ambassador Haley needs to do in order to be able to go on to South Carolina? In order to be argued.

In order to argue that, yes, she does have a path forward. Look, I know everyone's looking for specifics, looking for an exact number. We're not going to play that game because it all depends. Everything is relative.

For us, the ball has always been be strong. In Iowa, she went from 2% to 20% Iowa, she made New Hampshire. Two person race. That's strong.

So the goal now is to be stronger New Hampshire than we were in Iowa and then carry that amendment to South Carolina. We feel very good about where things are. We have the resources, we have momentum. We have the support to go the distance.

We are fighting for every inch. No one said that this is going to be easy, but we are working for it. And we're going to run through the tape. Let me just ask you a little bit as you look forward.

Does former Ambassador Haley, does the campaign have the resources, the money to keep going on to South Carolina at this point? It does. I just, I just said we've got the resources. We just announced a 4 million I buy in South Carolina.

We've got a rally in Charleston tomorrow night. We're looking far beyond. She's an accountant. We have been smart about this, about our campaign.

We were frugal. We stayed in Holiday Inns and local Marriotts. We had our staffer driving her in a van. And throughout Iowa, throughout New Hampshire.

We've been really smart about this. We've been smart about how we grow, when we grow, saving every penny so that we did have the resources to meet this moment. And we are meeting the moment. And we'll be up on the air in South Carolina in just a few days.

Olivia, how do you convince donors, supporters to stick with you if she can't win in New Hampshire, which frankly, is a state that's tailor made for her, with 40% of voters there claiming their independence? Yeah. Two things. One, everyone keeps saying New Hampshire as good as gets for Nikki Haley.

That's not actually accurate. First, we have New Hampshire, which is favorable to her in a lot of different ways which she just outlined. Then we go to South Carolina, which is her home state. Voters there know her, they love her.

They know what she did for them. She's going to remind them she's going to earn her vote. And that's onto Super Tuesday where more states on Super Tuesday they look more like New Hampshire than they look like Iowa. We've got a fighting chance.

This race is not over as, as the political leads, as much as the media might want to say it's over, it's not. And second, Nikki's been the underdog. She was the underdog in 2010. She's the underdog now.

But the folks I've been with her from the start are going to be with her throughout the entire way. So we're looking forward to it. We're excited for tonight and we're excited to see South Carolina tomorrow. Olivia, we're almost out of time.

So just very quickly, I know you're saying that she can win South Carolina, but right now Donald Trump has a double digit lead. He's got the endorsement of a lot of big names there, including Senator Tim Scott, the governor, Nancy Nace. How does she fight against that? Why should her supporters feel confident she can pull off a win there?

First off, we've got South Carolina is a month away. That's, that is like a year. That's a lifetime in politics. A lot can happen in that month.

And second off is what I said earlier. Nikki has never had the backing of Washington insiders, of legislators. She has always been the outsider. This is familiar territory for her and quite honestly, it fuels her.

She doesn't need her support. She doesn't even their support. She wants the support of voters and she's going to fight for it. All right.

Olivia Perez Cubas, thank you so much. We really appreciate on a busy day. Thank you. And we'll be right back to watching press now.

Welcome back. As we've been saying, voters are voting in the first in the nation primary and we are just a few hours from polls closing. Joining now is my panel. With me on set is Mark Short, former chief of staff to Vice President Mike Pence and Danielle Pleck, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute.

Also with me is Andrea Mitchell, NBC News chief Washington correspondent. Andrea, I have to start with you. Set the scene for us. What are you watching for?

And as you and I have been talking about throughout the day, this is a state where comebacks are possible. But Nikki Haley would need an historic comeback to pull this off. This would have to be the comebacks of all comebacks. I mean, you couldn't even spin it the way Bill Clinton did.

You know, in 1980, he came in second to Paul Sangas, but he called himself the comeback kid because he came out quickly, he had a big crowd and he declared himself the winner, basically the virtual winner, if you will. And so that was the narrative after a really tough primary race there for him. John McCain, you know, was just, he was all things New Hampshire. He went everywhere straight talk express, talking to voters, talking to reporters.

And he clearly was a big comeback. But you know, whether she can do this now, look at what she's got. You've been out there, you've been reporting on this. She not only has to get a huge chunk of the undeclared, but then she has to also eat away at Trump's base of Republican voters.

And to do both things and get it to within double digits when he has got, you know, at least again, single digits, got a double digit lead is really a huge hurdle. It's such a huge hurdle. Denny, weigh in on this point. If she can keep a loss now, she will win.

Let's say she loses. If she can keep it to single digits, what does that look like for her? Is that significant? Can she claim that's a strong showing?

Sure. I mean, the narrative all day and frankly, since Ron Desantis dropped out has been this right. It's going to be too high mountain for her to climb. She's never going to win.

It just can't happen. So if she manages, she actually can be the comeback kid. But of course, she has to climb the mountain and that's going to be the question. And we'll know, we'll know later.

Yeah, we will know in just a few hours, Mark. Right now the numbers show her leading with independence, but not nearly by enough. And they're really the key to this entire race. Well, they are in New Hampshire.

I think if you're a candidate who's relying upon independent or soft Republican support, it's hard to win across the country in a primary because you had the South Carolina and the Southern states of Super Tuesday. So it sets up well for her in New Hampshire, undoubtedly. But the Danny's point is why she really has to pull it off in New Hampshire because the other states are not going to be nearly stable to her. You know, the RNC chair just put out this really remarkable statement.

I mean, it calls for unity. It all but walks up to the line of saying, Nikki Haley, if you can't win in New Hampshire, it's time to drop out. What did you make of that hearing that, Danny? I thought it was outrageous.

I'm sorry. You know, I understand that Donald Trump is way ahead. I understand that part of the Republican establishment and Ronnie McDaniel, the chair of the RNC is behind him, which is also in and of itself a little bit inappropriate. But to say, you know, this process is stupid, you voters, you primary voters are stupid.

Let's just, you know, let's just cut to the chase. I'm sorry. It goes so much to this theme, this anti Democratic, small d anti Democratic theme that Republicans need to address. I'm sorry.

You know, when Donald Trump goes out and says I can do whatever I want, not only that, but I have immunity from everything when I'm president, you really want to be extra sensitive, not less sensitive to that vibe. Mark, what do you make of that? I think there's a symbiotic financial relationship here. There's no doubt that the RNC is still in paying balance legal bills.

And so, you know, I think the Ron and the team have pledged neutrality. For goodness sake, this is only second state to be arguing that somehow this is over. I think they have to let the candidates choose when they decide they want to get out or they want to continue. Andrea, let me bring you back into this conversation.

It was an extraordinary statement that was put out by the RNC chairwoman. What do you make of this moment? What are you going to be watching for tonight? Andrea?

Well, I agree with both Mark and Danny. It was outrageous for the RNC chair, especially on primary day. I mean, if she had waited till the end of the results and if it were determinative and then she might have an argument, it's time to rally. Even though I would say say that Vicky Hannity has a right to go to her home state and she's had a month to try to do something.

Who knows what's gonna happen in a month with Donald Trump, you never know. Even though every time he walks into a courtroom for some improbable reason, he seems to become more popular with Republican, Republican, maga, basically, it's not the Republican Party that I always knew and that I was covered, especially in New Hampshire. But look, New Hampshire is the best place for her to at least regain her footing. The voters there love an underdog.

They are more substantive than a lot of other states. They read, they consume this, and, you know, maybe she will end up, you know, a close second in single digits. And as John Cenuno has been touting her for all these days and these weeks, you know, maybe she will prove she could do something. I just think that she has to rethink it though.

If it's a, if it's another landslide like Iowa, then does she really want to go home and hurt herself for 28 or for some future role in the party, in a post Trump party perhaps, since even though she tiptoed around Donald Trump for the longest time, the enmity there is so apparent. I don't know how she could humiliate herself to the extent of doing something in some future Trump administration. I think the point about South Carolina is such a fascinating one, Mark, because it is her home state. You have Tim Scott who's already endorsed former President Trump.

The governor has already, the list goes on and on. Nancy Mays and she's trailing him by double digits. I just spoke to her spokesperson who said we have the resources, we're fine to go on to South Carolina, but what's the reality check inside a campaign which, you know, what it feels like like when you're bumping up against that hard question of whether your donors are going to stay with you? Well, I think the reality is a now talented two person race.

She continues to be well supported. I think there's a lot of donors is still one alternative Trump. So I don't think she's going to have a financial issue like a lot of other candidates. But I do think she has a question of, I think it's really about 20, 25 points of the Trump's leaders in South Carolina.

It's a tremendous firewall with them. As she said, it's not just Tim Scott and Lindsey Graham, but also the governor that have all endorsed in supporting news and organizations to help Trump. So it is a month. I think we forget that Sally rolls around next week.

So it's a month that gives her time else just make decision the day after New Hampshire. But I do think that it is your home state and if you're gonna lose by 20, 25 points, that's probably not something that you want to entertain if you wanna keep going. Mark's exactly right. I mean I think that's gonna be the hard part.

And I agree with you. I don't think that her donors are with her for the same reasons. I think she's got a lot of very loyal supporters who act, actually believe she would be a good President of the United States. You know, not a crazy thing to talk about in a race.