Meet the Press NOW — July 7

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Welcome to MEET THE press. Now, I'm Kelly o' Donnell in Washington. And we begin with breaking news out of Texas where rescue efforts are continuing in the aftermath of that historic and catastrophic flashlight on July 4th. As the death toll climbs, children remain missing and questions mount over whether more could have been done to avoid the tragedy.

According to the. At least 91 people have now died across multiple counties in Central Texas, the vast majority of them, according to local officials in Kerr County. The mayor of Kerrville, the seat of Kerr county, speaking this morning, warning of difficult days ahead for his community. I need to tell my community and those families who are waiting, this will be a rough week.

Primary search continues and we remain hopeful. Every foot, every mile, every bend of the river. And we want to show you now this time lapse video of the Guadalupe river on Friday. The river rising more than 31ft in just two hours.

In some places, residents describing the chaos and panic during those terrifying moments. Very horrific night. At one point, you can see lights because it was pitch black. You know, at that time of the night it was just so black.

And you could see the lights of vehicles getting washed off from upriver. And you can hear honking. You can see anybody. You can hear honking and you can hear the screaming.

The cabins from the RV park next door keep hitting, you know, keep getting smashed against the tracing. And there was screaming. I mean, and you couldn't see much, but the screaming was unbearable. Oh, that's hard to hear right now.

Flash flood watches and warnings remain in effect for much of the region, which is known as flash flood Alley. The National Weather Service new is defending the warnings it issued ahead of last week's catastrophic storm after some Texas officials accused the agency of underestimating the expected rainfall totals and failing to warn residents properly. The White House also dismissing suggestions that the Trump administration cuts to the National Weather Service hampered the agency's ability to provide enough warning. Blaming President Trump for these floods is a depraved lie and it serves no purpose.

During this time of national mourning. Here are the facts. In the lead up to this tragic natural disaster, the National Weather Service did its job. Despite unprecedented rainfall, the National Weather Service executed timely and precise forecasts and warnings.

And the National Weather Service office in New Braunfels, which delivers forecasts for Austin, San Antonio and the surrounding areas, had extra staff on duty during the storms despite claims of the contrary. So to any person who has deliberately lied about these facts surrounding this catastrophic event, you should be deeply ashamed of. And joining me now is our team of reporters. NBC News national correspondent Aaron Gilchrist is in Kerrville, Texas, although also with me is NBC News meteorologist Bill Karens and NBC News White House correspondent Anisha Sindor and NBC News senior Homeland Security correspondent Julia Ainsley.

Welcome all. Aaron, let me start with you. What is the latest on the ground and how can you describe for us the scale of destruction that you see? It is just immense.

I mean, Kelly really takes your breath away as you come into we're in Kerrville, but really this whole Kerr county is one that has seen a tremendous amount of devastation. You can see behind me, we're standing in a park, and I'm told by people who've been passing by throughout the day to day that this is a part normally where there would be really lush greenery behind me. You would see trees creating a canopy over this walkway here. But instead, now you have sandy water.

This is the water behind me is not the Guadalupe River. The river is a little bit farther over. There are trees that have been pushed down, snapped in half, the bark stripped off. There's plywood up in one of the trees here.

You can see just how high the water got when that wall came through this area on Friday morning. Just an indication of how devastating this flooding has been here. At the same time, we've heard from officials here in Kerrville and Kerr county in particular that they are continuing the primary search effort. They are still in the primary search effort.

They say they have indicated that they've recovered 75 bodies here in Kerr county to this point. We just got a few of the nearby counties updating us on some numbers, and so the death toll has surpassed 90 at this point. There is still some hope, though. I think we can say that there's potential for them to find some survivors from the flooding.

Even though the reality that this was such a catastrophic flooding event and that this is now day four since that flooding event, that reality is seeking in for a lot of people. I want you to hear from a couple that I spoke to a bit earlier Today, as they were coming through this park, they walk through on a regular basis, seeing that gone and so much of their community is devastated. It's really sad because you know what happened and, and the people who are suffering because of it, it's just such a tragedy and it's still not over. So there lots of people missing.

Yeah. Now, county officials have said that they have a 62 mile area to search along the Guadalupe river that really runs through a huge portion of central Texas here. And while they're doing that, you may be able to hear some of the heavy machinery that's in the background here. They've been here all day removing debris and that's something that's seen that's playing out up and down this river and will be Kelly Lighty for several days.

And I'm sure there's much more to this beyond the just the striking images, but I'm sure there are sou smells on the ground where you are that are just really making this overwhelming. It is an area known as Flashblood Alley. And what have you heard from survivors about just how quickly this all escalated? Well, people were just surprised.

Flash flood Alley. People we talked to said they are used to flooding. They see the water rise in this area on a regular basis. That's not unusual for them.

People who expected the worst thought they might get some water, maybe a little mud in their homes. Instead you had homes that were ripped off of their foundations and pushed down the river because you had a wall of water that was the estimates are between 20 and 26ft high or higher than the river typically would be. And so that was something that caused so many people off guard. The alerts that went out.

We've heard a mixture of people saying that they got some of the alerts. That main one that would have happened about 1 o' clock in the morning. The National Weather Service sent out alert that would have triggered what we typically think of as the Amber alert noise that comes on our cell phones. People would have gotten that assuming that they had service that was operating at that hour.

There were a lot of people who were at campsites and tents and RVs along the Guadalupe river at that time who would have been asleep. We all know to a person, if they had their alerts turned on, so they would have received that alert. But there are a lot of questions about that part of this situation, Kelly, where people are trying to get their heads around what sort of alerts went out, the timing of those alerts, what additional alerts maybe should have gone out. All questions that people are asking and at some point will have to be answered.

Although the concentration right now is really on trying to find people who are still missing, of course. And that's where it should be. Thank you, Aaron, for bringing us the updates right from the scene. And let me turn now to Bill, who I hope you can explain the difficulty in predicting storms like this one, even for people familiar with flooding.

Yeah, this is an area that gets thunderstorms a couple times, you know, every week for the most part. And the predictions were for a heavy rainfall event and thunderstorms, the national weather, and set up to seven inches. Well, obviously we well exceeded that. And even though they thought there could be flooding, no one predicted that there would be this catastrophic level of flooding.

Flooding that rivals were ever recorded going back 100 years, 150 years in this region. These are some of the rainfall totals. And there were two flash flood events. There was the one that hit the Guadalupe river and the camp there, that was this one that produced about a fluid rain.

And then as it went through Friday night, July 4th night into Saturday morning, we had almost 20 inches of rain outside Austin. This flash flood was totally separate. You just showed the video there in Georgetown and that has already taken 12 lives. And there's still another eight to 10 people missing from that flash flood.

So why did we have these back to back historic events? We can blame Barry. This storm about nine days ago came into Mexico. That moisture got trapped along the side of the mountains.

It was drawn northwards by the wind and it sat over the top of Texas. Tropical moisture just sitting there, just waiting for a trigger. And those thunderstorms started and it formed this complex of storms that just didn't move. This is a loop over about 12 hours.

That red of that pink, that's the extreme rainfall rates right over the Waterloo river. And that's what caught everybody. And this happened from about 10pm till about 5 to 7am in the morning when everyone had just gone to bed, poured all night long. And on top of that the ground was parched.

The river was only at 3ft deep. You see pictures of this river at 29 to 30ft deep. At its max it was 3ft, it was dry, there was a drought and all this water collected in what they call the foothills of Texas and all these little rivers and canyons and then it all flowed down the Guadalupe River River. And that's why everyone just said the timing of it was what cost the most lives, even probably worse than the communication failures, which we can talk about too.

Certainly the hour of Night made a difference in how people responded to this. But are you seeing understanding now that maybe part of the lapse was in the forecast itself or in the mechanisms to send out alerts to people? As with everything, there's always gonna be a little piece of a lot of different things. It rained harder than anyone thought, so that's another piece of it.

The alerts and the warnings that went out as the event was unfolding actually happened as they should. I didn't see any problems whatsoever. The watch, which means the ingredients are possible for it to flood, happened 12 to 13 hours before the event. And then the warning went out at 1am so the warning goes out.

These are the ways you can get the warning. TV and radio through your mobile device, wireless emergency alerts, or through weather radio. A lot of these people are in RVs or they're in tents or cabins along the river or in the case of all the kids at the camps. So a lot of these options weren't available.

Plus it's the middle of night, no one watching TV and radio. So a lot of people ran out to count on either one of two things. No weather radios, which a lot of people don't use anymore, which they still should if you're in a rural area, or wireless emergency alerts. People said they weren't getting these though some of the wifi, some of the sailor services is very spotty in some of these areas of Kerr County.

So people may have been in their tents normally counting on their device to tell them when there's a tornado warning or a severe thunderstorm warning, in this case a flood warning. And maybe they didn't get those because they weren't cell phone service. And as far as the kids campus, one of the biggest questions I'm dying to know, and I'm sure the parents are going to demand to know, did they have a NOAA weather radio? Were they alerted in the middle of the night?

In case you're not familiar with weather radio, is it's almost like a fire alarm in your house. It goes off and it beeps. It wakes you up. So if the camp director had one in their office when this one off at 1am and then again at 5am they would have known and could have possibly told all the kids to get to higher ground.

The girls camp did not completely go underwater. About 75% of it is in the flood zone. 25 is not the upper campus. At higher elevations, that's where helicopters were rescuing the girls from.

So if they had known in advance and gotten the weather Radio alerts. They could have gotten all those girls up to safe, higher ground. But that didn't happen for some reason. We don't know why yet, Kelly.

And I'm sure the parents will be demanding it. I'm sure a lot of people don't want to know what happened. Unfortunately, I have to know what this tragedy, the director of the camp, who likely was the one to get these perish trying to resc some of these girls. Some of these questions we may never really answer to.

And so, so many difficult questions. And just to give us a quick snapshot, I understand there is still a threat of weather being an issue in this area. Yes. We have to understand we're concerned that there's still active search and rescue going on with hundreds of drones, aircrafts, people on the ground.

These thunderstorms have sworn up a ton of rain. They were moving west. Here's Kerrboard, where the boy looked at the river area. This is the search region.

They have stayed away. They're weakening. I don't think we're gonna have to deal any more problems with flash flooding in the next week. Looks dry in Texas, so hopefully we can recover anything that possibly can be found.

Bill, thank you so much for all of those details and a sense of how it unfolded. Let me turn now to Yamiche, and I was really struck by the tone at the White House briefing today and the way that officials have come out defending the administration's federal response to these terrible floods in Texas and the potential for a presidential visit to the region, which is something we would expect. What is your takeaw how the Trump administration has responded? Well, Kelly, I think you're right to really point out that the tone here was striking from the White House.

The White House secretary really in a defensive posture today. She came out saying that any sort of questioning of staffing or resources the National Weather Service had or any sort of critique that would place blame on the president and the cuts that Doge, the Department of Government Efficiency, have made to the National Weather Service, that they're just ridiculous and really politicking. So the White House here saying that the National Weather Service had everything they needed in order to give out the proper and ample warnings to people. They're also saying that the president is looking at possibly going to Texas on Friday.

The president said probably Friday, but nothing has been finalized. And as you know, Kelly, these presidential trips take a lot of resources. So in the past, presidents have been cautious about going to national disaster areas because it means that there's going to be first responders and all sort of resources that need to go to a presidential trip. So it's still TBD on when President Trump will actually go to Texas, though.

The president has been saying that he's taking all the resources of the federal government available to Texas in this time of need, Kelly, and they can't take the time to sort out when it's appropriate. Obviously, there's still so much action that is taking place. You mentioned the DOGE cuts and certainly prior to these storms and the hurricane season, there was a lot of strong words from the administration across the president and Cabinet about the need to have cuts in some of these federal agencies and believe that a lot of what they were doing was not delivering for people in various communities. When things happen in terms of DOGE cuts, are they drawing any questions about the future of resources to these agencies, whether it's FEMA or whether it's other weather related agencies and what they will need going forward?

Yeah, we've heard from local Democratic officials in Texas as well as Senator Schumer, both of them, a number of other officials on Democratic side saying they want an investigation to see if any staffing cuts that were carried out by Doge or the Trump administration, whether or not they had any impact on Texas ability to warm and have ample staffing needed in this flood situation. The other thing that you bring up is that President Trump has hinted at a time set out right that he wants to get rid of fema, which of course a big agency that helps in natural disasters female on the ground right now in Texas. And they also do things like the hurricanes and other places to help states deal with disasters. And the White House secretary was asked specifically, is the president thinking about rolling back his plan to shut down FEMA or strip away resources to FEMA at all.

She would say was that the president wants states to do as much as they can and even more, but she would not answer the question directly. And that tells me that the president is not really moving off of the idea that FEMA could be done away with. Though of course that's because you see in Texas there are these heartbreaking stories and it's the federal government and FEMA that is helping people. Kelly, it was very notable that she was asked more than once about his position on that and she did not embrace the position he has publicly stated before.

So that is definitely a space for us all to watch. And bringing up FEMA makes me want to turn to Julia now and to get a sense of what you think is is critical here in terms of how FEMA uses money for things like this kind of circumstance and you've been doing a lot of reporting related cuts they've made and so forth. So what is the picture? That's right.

Well, certainly from where Aaron sits, so much is being handled locally. But FEMA of course, is our National Emergency Management Agency administration and it has really come under the crosshairs of this administration. In fact, it took a real last minute maneuvering right before hurricane season for the current acting head of FEMA to keep on 2,600 employees that were about to be let go. And those are the people who are brought on seasonally every year to bring respond on the ground to incidents just like the ones that we're seeing in Texas.

So those were kept. But at the same time, you have Trump saying he wants to eliminate fema. You have the former head of FEMA being fired one day after he told the Hill he didn't think it was an adventurers of the American people to eliminate fema. But the overall thing of the Trump administration, this is one that does align with some other Republican administration's beliefs to downsize the federal government.

That rule of FEMA was to give more responsibility to the states to build their own coffers in terms of how to respond to natural disasters and to try to cut back on what the fence do. A lot of people will say it's actually better for things we manage. They understand how to reach people, what people need to get the information they need and the local resources. But the issue is because has gotten so big for so long and natural disasters are only getting so much more extreme.

It's really difficult to figure out exactly when they would make that pivot. Kelly and so for now there was some behind the scenes maneuvering to try to keep a lot of those on the ground, responders on the paybacks, on the payrolls. But it is clear that FEMA is still a priority to be all but eliminated, actually eliminated administration. Yeah, that's still the plan.

And that may be part of the reason we have an acting. You made a reference to acting administrator right now, not a permanent position. Do you think that is having an impact on how they just organize themselves, how they carry out the mission as it stands right now? Yeah.

And perhaps it just, it's a chilling effect of how the other administrator was fired. This is someone who was polygraphed. This is someone who was obviously taken out for going up against this idea of eliminating fema. You have David Richardson now who did not have any female experience, but who at least has been rallying to keep the part of the workforce that they do have.

The other thing I point to, Kelly, is how much this administration sees CHS as an immigration agency and that they have now promised $450 in FEMA funds to go repay Florida for building Alligator Alcatraz. And that does come from a sheltering part of their budget that was used for immigrants in the past. But still, that's money FEMA could pull if they have a very catastrophic hurricane season. Floods like this, wildfires like we saw in Los Angeles, it's all part of the same coffer.

And right now DHS sees immigration as its number one funding priority. That's very clear. Based on their actions and what they talk about. It'll be interesting to see how this may shape some policy decisions and also hearing from governors.

Governor Abbott is Republican and obviously they are well positioned to do state level response. But they often, many times we see governors very quick the moment a crisis happens to reach out and have the federal government crisis. And Texas is a big state. If this happens in smaller areas with less resources, it might not be as quick to handle it.

Thank you so much. Appreciate all your reporting on that. And now I want to bring in someone who knows a great deal about fema and that is the former administrator Diane Criswell who joins us now. And thank you for being with us.

And I know that of course you served during the Biden years. There were times we had a chance to ask about VAR that were happening during that time from the briefing room. We are still in the early days of this disaster and I know it is a time when people are still wanting to get the the recovery efforts and any possibility for rescuing folks to continue. But for those who are on the ground right now, what type of assistance is most needed?

Kelly, I think the first thing to remember is what you just said is that the focus on the ground still needs to be search and rescue, right? They need to continue those efforts so they can account for everybody that could potentially be impacted by the storm. And Texas is a very capable state. I've worked with Governor Abbott and NPID on several other disasters during my time and they have a lot of resources.

But when you have something as catastrophic as this, it has such a big impact. That's where the federal government can come in and assist. And so some of the most important things that FEMA is going to be able to provide is when they can bring in additional search and rescue capability. Either through the urban search and rescue team, they can bring in and coordinate the rest of the federal family.

I know the Coast Guard is already there. The Fish and Wildlife and other agencies that have this capability are all ones that can be brought in to help with this part of the response effort. But as they go into. Oh, go ahead.

I just wanted to ask you, because what you're talking about are those areas of expertise in the federal government. Obviously states can handle all kinds of storms and problems that come up that are frankly at a much lower level of emergency. And then when you get to this kind of a scale. We just got an update on the death count.

It is now 95, according to NBC's reporting. It's just a devastating number. And we have heard, of course, President Trump talking about phasing out FEMA after this hurricane season. So that's from June to November is the hurricane season.

Obviously this flooding was connected to the storm that was farther south in the Central American area off the coast there. The president has not said what kind of impact that would have have. He's talked about giving resources directly to the states. You have worked this, you worked the surprise of the Asheville, North Carolina swarm that created devastating consequences that many people didn't foresee.

This is sort of have some elements of that. What are your concerns about changing the structure of FEMA going forward? I guess it really depends on what problem is trying to be fixed. Right.

I'll be the first to say that there are things that can be improved in the way federal assistance is delivered. But without fully having a conversation, a thoughtful discussion about what problem is going to be fixed, you're just going to be able, you're just going to put forth efforts that could potentially have other consequences. You know, I think about states managing more and states always managed to set their states and locals have that responsibility. But Texas has already requested assistance for rescue and I think Oklahoma and Louisiana are sending search and rescue teams in.

But many of those teams are also funded and trained by fema. And so even though they're state to state requests right now, what happens if that funding for their ongoing training and maintenance goes away? How are they going to be able to sustain that? Those are the second and third order effects that I just don't know are fully thought through right at this moment in the conversation.

A lot of what people are asking about is the early warning systems and you may have more expertise than the rest of us on how that actually works. And there is some concern that perhaps there should have been some. There was some review in the community about looking at that. And they just, the publishers didn't want to pay the bill for it.

Now, obviously you see concern about why couldn't they have had more. What is your expertise from everything you've learned managing FEMA about how early warning is important and how it can be prohibitively expensive for communities to foot that bill and stuff themselves. Early warning is so critical. I mean, that messaging is one of the most important things that we as emergency managers and we as communicators need to be able to get out to people that are in harm's way.

Right. They need to understand what their risk is, but they also need to understand how they're going to get information. I think one of your previous reporters talked about the no weather radios. If you're in an area that doesn't have cell service, every state, every community is going to have to develop that plan for themselves.

But they are expensive. Like if you were to put in a siren system, those are expensive. You have to not just put them in, but also train people on what the sound is and how they're going to use them and what actions people will take. But that's where some of the mitigation money that FEMA had available could be used for that.

Right. Communities have invested and applied for mitigation grants to put in early warning systems for community because they can be cost prohibitive, especially in small communities. And so with those grants also in jeopardy, it takes away another resource that have to actually put these types of systems in place. It is good to see you again.

We're going to call on you frequently now in this season of dealing with this crisis to get your expertise. Dan Criswell, so much. Thank you so much for being with us. Thanks, Kelly.

And I know many of our viewers want to help the victims and those affected by this devastating situation. And so NBC News has confirmed and vetted some organizations that you're seeing on your screen right now. And they are accepting donations that will go right to those who are most affected by this. And up next, President Trump is set to meet with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu today as pressure builds to reach a ceasefire in Gaza.

We'll get a live report on what to expect from those talks. You're watching Meet the President. You have a reason to care. You know someone you've lost someone, you've lived it.

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President Trump is set to host Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu at the White House this evening as the administration continues to push for a ceasefire in Gaza. Yesterday, President Trump expressed confidence that a deal could be reached as soon as this week. I think we're close to a deal on Gaza. We could have it this week.

I think there's a good chance we have a deal with Hamas during the week, during the coming week pertaining to quite a few of the hostages. You know, we've got a lot of the hostages out, but pertaining to the remaining hostages, quite a few of them will be coming out. Also today, the president's trade policy is once again coming under scrutiny as he pushes back the July 9 tariff deadline for countries who have yet to reach a new trade deal with the US that's now moving to August 1st. President Trump posting on social media several letters he is sending among them to the leaders of Japan, South Korea, South Africa, saying the US will begin imposing new tariffs on August 1st.

And he's saying that the various levels and he's warning that the rate could increase if those countries return. Markets were a bit rattled today, but have largely shrugged off the last few months of trade uncertainty. And with all the major indices up since President Trump's inauguration, I am joined now by NBC News White House correspondent Vaughn Hilliard. And with me here in the studio is Elise Lavish.

She's the Edward R. Murrow press fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and host of the Cosmopolitics podcast. Vaughn, let me start with you. Is the status of the administration's ever shifting deadline.

We now see, you know, it's gone from July now we're going into August. We've certainly covered many iterations of this. Where does it stand right now? Treasury Secretary Scott Besson is now suggesting that these new tariffs, the reciprocal tariffs, whatever the exact calculation is, are not going to go into effect until August 1.

But the countries are going to begin to receive letters informing them of what their new tariff rates are as soon as this week. Two countries specifically Japan and South Korea. Already the president not clear whether they have received themselves other than in the form of a true social post and the pfiles being posted by the president on his social media account. But the suggestion is is by another the press secretary is that more will be on the way here in the coming days.

Actually just up here tomorrow here at the White House. And of course Navarro was the chief trade strategist for the president here the White House and was the one who had suggested that there would be 90 deals in 90 days at the time that the president paused those high tariff rates on countries and I just asked him if there was a certain number of countries that should expect letters by weeks and he declined to answer to so there's still a lot of questions exactly how they're going to go about calculating what the tariff rate is for each country and whether ultimately even these are negotiable before they go into effect come August 1st. Coming I would have expected Kazakhstan and Japan to be in the first wave together. So it's hard to know where they're heading next, but we'll be tracking that.

The other thing on the president's schedule today that is certainly going to get a lot of attention is meeting with the Israeli prime minister. What's the White House saying about what we should expect? The two men are going to have dinner tonight. It's not clear whether we are going to have a chance to hear directly from Netanyahu himself.

Of course this meeting is running parallel to another Israeli delegation meeting with Qatari diplomats, indirect talks with Hamas. Now there is still a very wide schism here to getting the point of an end of a war. And yet we have heard the president just one week ago suggest that Israel was on the cusp of agreeing to a 60 day ceasefire. Hamas responded that proposal with some counterpoints.

Israeli Prime Minister Binyahu has made it very Clear that this war will not come to an end until Hamas is decimated. But we have heard from Hamas that of course they're not going to agree to those terms. And what they want as part of any ceasefire, end or end to this war, is the commitment from Israel to pull out all IDF personnel from Gaza Strip and ensure that there will be no further military operations. And so the question here is for the President, who urged Israel to stop launching airstrikes into Iran as a means of brokering peace, will he put that same type of pressure on the Prime Minister here when it comes to Gaza?

I asked her, I love the press secretary this afternoon, whether that be a part of the conversation. She declined specifics about any negotiations. But it's an interesting point, Vaughn, and that takes me to Elise, who's here with us in studio. When you consider what the dynamics are, and frankly, the President has been frustrated at times with Benjamin Netanyahu, not the first president to have that experience because their aims are different.

Netanyahu's desires for what happens have some very domestic oriented political interests. And the President wants to just get this quieted down. So what are you looking for? What are the key signs about what this meeting means?

I mean, I think is that this look, the President has made no bones. He wants this to end. He doesn't want this open ended war. He feels like, hey, I bound Iran for you, this is my payback.

I need this cause of ceasefire. Prime Minister Netanyahu thinks he's coming for some victory lap, but no, he's coming to face pressure about a ceasefire that, as you rightly say, has political implications for his cabinet and also, you know, his trial. And President Trump, you seem kind of dive into the political situation. There's like, oh, you know, maybe if you drop the charges on him, he'll have a ceasefire.

But at the end of the day, I think President Trump wants this to be done. And that's where you, yes, we can get a 60 day ceasefire, but the question is what comes next? And that's what diplomats in the region, they called the Group of Five, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, uae, Egypt and Jordan, trying to put forward this day after, after plan. So this could be like, what comes after?

How do you govern? Who's going to take control? Who's going to control all this? President Trump doesn't want to deal with this anymore.

He wants to use the momentum of the Iran strikes. Iran has weakened. Prime Minister Netanyahu is strengthened. Use that as leverage to get a ceasefire.

And certainly for Israel, the question of who is Governing in Gaza is incredibly important and they don't want Hamas there at all in any capacity. And President Trump has not been very clear about what his vision of local leadership in Gaza would be. Is that an answerable question in meetings they're having now? I don't think he has a vision.

You know, you had that, remember that great video like the Riviera where him and Prime Minister national reading on the beach of Gaza. That's dead. I mean, it was never really a redevelopment idea. That's never really happening.

The idea is how can you get some more, more cut horizon, as they say. That could also be translated into other areas. I think that's really the kind of question here. But I'll tell you, President Trump feels right now he's got the wind in his back.

You see the Israelis saying, President Trump, only you could do this. They're really playing to his vanity. I mean, President Trump wants this Nobel Peace Prize. Is that possible?

I don't know. But he's using this. It's yes. I call him the accidental statement because he wants this validation.

He wants all these accolades and he's willing to put some political capital on the line to get it done. I don't think he has all the pieces laid out or the strategy or the vision, but he's got the desire to be the big man who makes it all happen. The Israelis are playing to it even, you know, talk more another time about Iran, but even the president of Iran right now in that interview with Tucker Carlson saying President Trump, only you can do this. So they've learned the flattery card.

It'll be interesting to see if Netanyahu will honor substance, follow some of the president's pressure. Thank you, Elise. Appreciate your expertise. And after the break, the politics of the Trump administration sweeping tax and spending agenda and how the legislation is already shaping the midterm elections.

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That's SunriseChallenge CA as the day wraps up, get the scoop on what's been happening with here's the Scoop, the podcast for NBC News with me, your host, Gasugi. We'll take a deep dive into the day's top stories with NBC News's trusted journalist. It's a fresh take that's sharp, thoughtful and informative, bringing you closer to headlines and conversations that are shaping our world. From the front page to the Zeitgeist.

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Price is subject to Ch. Visit NBC news.com for full of returns and details. After President Trump signed the package as part of the White House's Fourth of July festivities that happened on Friday. And while congressional Republicans are celebrating the passage of President Trump's domestic agenda, which will send tax cuts and fund border operations while cutting funds for clean energy, food assistance and Medicaid, it's already being used as a political cudgel ahead of next year's midterm elections.

Here's a new super PAC ad targeting Pennsylvania Republican Congressman Rob Bresnahan over changes to Medicaid. Republicans in Congress promised not to cut Medicaid, but then the bill is passed. It's the biggest cut to Medicaid in history, and Congressman Rob Resnahan just voted for it. Why did he do it?

To give another huge tax break to billionaires and big corporations. Joining me now is Dave Wasserman. He is a senior editor and elections analyst for the Cook Political Report. And Dave, we are glad to have you with us because I want to get your insights on the potential impact of this Trump sweeping agenda bill.

Who is going to be talking about it when it comes to the races of 2026? Will it be Democrats who are fighting against it or Republicans defending it? What's your take look at the impact it's already had. Passage of this legislation was swift, but it was also stressful.

It required a lot of strong arming and we've already seen several swing district Republicans like Don Bacon from Nebraska in the House, Thom Tillis in the Senate from North Carolina decide to retire rather than running for reelection. Having to defend this piece of legislation. And that's a telltale sign of a party that spent its political capitals. When you see those swing district members leaving, it's not all that dissimilar from this point in 2017, which led into the blue wave of 2018.

And oldest rule in politics is that anger is a stronger motivator than love. Democrats will be running on the same message they did eight years ago, which is that Republicans have sought to kick millions of Americans off their health care plans. And it's going to be really hard at this point for Republicans to protect their House majority. The Senate's different story just by virtue of the seats that are up for grabs.

And when you reference health care, let me ask you about the Medicaid changes. And it appears those are going to be already our major talking point for Democrats, in some ways giving Democrats a message. And they certainly talked a lot about health care on the road back to taking the majority in 2018. Now, you wrote about the echoes of 2018 in one of your recent columns.

How do you see that reflected in what we could watch in 2026? Well, all Democratic ad makers have to do is swap out preexisting conditions for closures of rural hospitals, Medicaid cuts, and frame it as a tax cut for the wealthy at the expense of the poorest. And Democrats are already outraged at a lot of actions this administration has taken that showed up in the turnout patterns we've seen in everything from special elections in Florida to Wisconsin state Supreme Court race. I think we're likely to see it in Virginia and New Jersey this fall.

And it's really hard to change that narrative. Now, keep in mind, eight years ago, Republicans did not succeed at repealing and replacing Obamacare. This time around, they passed sweeping legislation that Democrats can point to as having imminent consequences for millions of Americans. And that is going to be hard for Republicans to overcome with their argument that this represents a tax cut that will provide relief for millions of Americans, especially homeowners paying high state and local taxes.

Let's drill down a little into one of the districts that I know you've been following. That's California. 22 is David Valadao. His district has nearly 40% of adults there receiving Medicaid or similar coverage.

He won reelection by about six points in 2024. And you have a seat characterized as lean Republican. So how do you see the Medicaid question playing out there politically? Yeah, this is a classic case where a Republican, you know, is cross pressured because they're in a swing district with hundreds of thousands of very low income constituents who rely on government services such as Medicaid and food stamp stamps.

In fact, this is the Republican held district with the the highest Latino percentage I think except for one taxes in the country. And when you take a look at David Valdo in particular, he's someone who at times has cross Trump. He voted to to to impeach Trump several years ago and Democrats have struggled to defeat him because he comes across as a moderate. But in each one of these districts, Democrats are going to be able to claim that the Republican provided the decisive vote to pass this sweeping bill.

And that could be devastating considering the unpopularity we're seeing for it in the polls. And when you look at the landscape, when we're talking about a wave that could happen, what the movement is, we know There are roughly 18 toss up seats because of the way redistricting and how districts are drawn and that's roughly about the same amount as Republicans had. And there are only 70 seats that make up the sweeping battleground that's out of 435. So how does that compare to a typical year and do you think this is heading toward a 2018 style wave or will it be much narrower than that?

Well, keep in mind we don't have a whole lot of data yet. District to district. We're not seeing a lot of public polling. There's not a lot of private polling because candidates are just getting up and running.

But if we were to superimpose some of the turnout patterns we're already seeing in state legislative races onto the ballot for Congress next year, we could see a lot of district in the likely R. Lenar column that get even more precarious for Republicans. There were even some districts that were rated as safe for Republicans at this point in 2017 that ended up being very close or even flipping to Democrats in 2018. And so Democrats are really beating the bushes for candidates even in reach districts.

And we're likely to see I think a number of those toss ups break in one direction. Keep in mind Democrats are only need to flip three seats to win back majority. So whereas they won, they won 40 seats to get to 235 in 2018. They only need to flip 20 seats to get to 235 this time.

There's a lot of math involved. We have a long way to go, but you've given us some interesting tea leaves. Dave Wasserman, thank you so much. Appreciate your expertise.

Thanks Kelly. And still to come, party crasher Elon Musk, the world's richest man says he's launching a new political party to take on Democrats and Republicans. You're watching MEET THE PRESS now. Welcome back.

Today, California Governor Gavin Newsom marks six months since the deadly wildfires broke out earlier this year in Southern California. And as you recall, President Trump struck a much different and at times more combative tone with California's unexpected natural disaster. And he's taken this week toward Texas and its Republican governor, Greg Abbott, as president elect and as president. Mr.

Trump has blamed Governor Newsom for the deadly wildfires, calling him, quote, incompetent while spreading misleading claims about the state's water policies. Joining me now on set is Michael Schell, congressional reporter for the Hill Amisha Cross, Democratic strategist and former campaign advisor to President Obama and Mike Duffy, former White House communications director in the first Trump administration of 45. So welcome to all of you. And Michael, let me start with you.

When you think about the effectiveness question of the National Weather Service and of fema, and just putting that aside for the moment because obviously, you know, we're still in the midst of it, do you see a difference in the responses from President Trump with a disaster hitting, you know, a very red state like Texas versus how we respond to California? Yeah, there's certainly some differences in tone in addition to some lawmakers on Capitol Hill. I'm looking forward to seeing what this looks like in the coming days and weeks when we start talking about potential disaster aid packages for Texas. I'm up on Capitol Hill.

I covered very closely that request for the California wildfires. I didn't realize it was just six months ago. That's my goodness. Yes.

That aid still has not gone to California in the wake of that disaster on the west coast, there have been a number of Republican lawmakers said saying this A needs to be offset. We're not going to send this A to California unless they're spending. That's right. Unless they're offset.

So I'm curious to see two Republican lawmakers walk that same line when it's Texas, or do we see a different voice? You know, we have Governor Greg Abbott, a Republican ally of President Trump in Texas, compared to Gavin Newsom, who is a frequent foreign partner of President Trump. So I'm interested to see how lawmakers react to that funding package once we get to the point where there's an evaluation and there's a interesting cause. We're talking about two states that have north of 30 million, two big states.

Mike, can I ask you about some of what Secretary Noem said today? We heard from her this morning, and I want to play a portion of what she said about where things stand, quite frankly. The National Weather Service under President Trump has been working to put a new technology in a new system because it's been collected for years. It's an ancient system that need to be upgraded.

And so President Trump recognized that right away and got to work on it when he came into office in January. But that insulation not complete. Well, of course, as we pointed out, he was in office before because that's when you served him. And so, yes, across the government, there are some antiquated systems in various places.

And when they come to a crisis point, obviously there's a lot of recriminations. But do you see that as being a workable comment, praise the president and act like a dollar bible? I think there's a couple of things that work here. I think some of the early pronouncements by Senator Schumer and articles in the New York Times about, you know, whether Doge or other funding sources caused this disaster, which was totally inappropriate.

So you see White House reacting to that and in some cases maybe this with, with Secretary Noem, you're seeing an overreaction to the accusations that were made a couple of days ago. But here's my answer to your question. This is why government reform is so difficult, because as you try, whether you agree with what the president has said about FEMA and whether or not it's funded at the right levels or if it' right focus. When you have a disaster and everything is going wrong, somebody wants to blame somebody else.

And so trying to reform government in the middle, it's kind of like during that crisis. Yeah, during that crisis is almost impossible. So I'm not surprised you're hearing it, but it's, it's part and parcel of the politics we live with. Did you mean that?

It's not an appropriate question because of the timing, like we're still in a search and recovery phase, or is the question itself to be asked about whether Doge cuts had any impact at these key agents? Frankly, if I was really going to be focused on this, I'd be looking at whether the cuts, the Doge cuts and others are still affecting California, the floods that we had in North Carolina. But when you're in the middle of a crisis, I do wish we could just pull the politics out of it, because you get, you get somebody trying to go on the offensive, and then you've got, you see the reaction from the press secretary at the White House and the secretary here. It's just look, we should be focused on what is happening in Texas right now.

And the senator from Texas, Ted Cruz today was kind of sounding a similar note saying this isn't the time for politics. Now, we know that he has at times been engaged in being politically critical during other crises, but do you think that there is going to be a moment where what he is saying breaks through? Or is it simply, is Ted Cruz not the right messenger for this because he has often been critical of how other states conducted themselves? Or is this a moment to say we've got to put aside the partisan for a moment and get through this initial phase of this tragedy?

Ted Cruz is definitely not the right messenger in this moment because his history, when it comes to tragedies like this, it's not that great. Especially when those tragedies happened in non rid states. With that being said, I do think that it's time for everybody to step back. There are families who are still waiting to hear about the recovery of their children.

It is a very difficult time for those who gone through the world going through this natural disaster. Someone who lost relatives in Katrina, I remember what that felt like. Yes, you want somebody to blame, but you also want people to understand what these feelings and emotions come from. So I think that there has to be that level of empathy.

But in addition to that, there has to be a party. And I will say the Republican Party has to stay on business here when it comes to their acknowledgment of climate change. Yes, this is a horrible disaster, but it's not the last disaster. Unfortunately, we're going to see heightened levels of hurricanes, of flooding, of severe tornado damage and other things.

If you are from the South, I grew up along the Buffaloes. You knew when storms were coming. And to blame this on the system failure I think is a problem because there is no telling how quickly the water will rise. And I think that four families were trying to get out and, you know, be the best they could, what they had.

This is still a very tragic time. Texas has to do some real inward thinking, but some of the Republican Party on how they address these crises and how they're able to restore a sense of safety for individuals who visit their home. Let's talk a little bit about party because Elon Musk has introduced the idea of a party that he is funding, the America Party. So are the Americans.

Then that's going to be interesting. Do you think that this is real or is it just a flex of his political muscle and the money that he has? Do you? I mean, if we're looking at it right now.

I just think he gave Trump his first attack line on the American party. He's the South African is putting together the American party. So, no, I'm just listening to how you're describing. Well, I'm not here to be the consultant.

That's your game. But do we think in terms of is it real until there's actual money spent or a candidate that attaches to it because he obviously can't run the president? What is your sense? I mean, on the Hill, people certainly lined up with President Trump among the Republicans who had a tough vote, I think has to be taken seriously because of the money that Elon Musk has.

We saw the amount of capital he put into the 2024 election, how much it helped President Trump. So based on his size of his wallet and his bank account, it has to be taken seriously. But with another third party effort. Right.

Because of the money. I want to dig a little bit more into it. What is this party going to stand for? It was not too long ago when Elon Musk said that every single Republican who votes for that big, beautiful bill should be primary, that he would look to help with that effort.

Well, that's going to be primary More than 250 Republicans because all but five voted for this bill. So it's a question of what is this party going to stand for, what's this issue going to be, what's going to work towards. So again, it should be taken seriously because of the money that Elon Musk has. But when you get to the next layer of what does it stand for and what is it actually going to try to achieve, I think that's when people are going to become more critical and get a better sense of is this legit or is this just showcasing and flipping into Democrats who also have a new face on the scene in Zoran Mandani.

And Democrats are trying to figure out is he representative of the party largely or will he and some of his policies be a problem for Democrats. How do you respond to that? He's also steering as a Democrat. He's not on the no labels ever happened to that campaign in that ticket.

He's not somebody who's running as a socialist, even though he has been enforced by the Democratic Socials of America. I think that there's something to be said about a party that has multiple facets to it. There are monitors in the Democratic Party. There are people who are further left in the Democratic Party.

There are those don't really know where to go to the Democratic Party right now. I think that what Mahogany did a lot of people are overlooking is that he spoke of what mattered to his constituents. In large part, it is a, it is a campaign on affordability, the same type of affordability that honestly, Donald Trump ran on. So at the end of the day, Democrats really do check a box is that people want to hear about 4 billion and they want to hear about 4 billion plans and we are up against it.

The time is calling. I thank you all for being here. I want to know if you think that he'll really give up on fema. That's for another day.

Thank you so much for being with us for Beat the Press now and the news. And there's so much of it Today continues with Ali Jackson. Right now, you have a reason to care. You know someone you've lost someone, you've lived it.

The darkest times are no match for what we can do together. Join us for the can make sunrise challenge. From May 25 to 29, Canadians are waking up with a son to raise funds for a future where everyone can access the mental health care they need. The moment they need it.

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