Meet the Press NOW – July 7

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Visit HyundaiCanada.com or your local dealer for details. If It's Friday, it's getting hot in here. Tens of millions of Americans face dangerous heat warnings as global temperatures soar, reaching record breaking highs unseen on Earth in centuries. Climate scientists warn it's only going to get worse.

Plus, the Biden administration greenlights a controversial weapons deal with Kyiv as Russian jets harass US drones for the second time in two days. And an American journalist enters 100 days of being behind bars in Russia. And it's the economy. The President doubles down on what he calls bidenomics, announcing new actions aimed at reducing consumer healthcare costs with new jobs data showing the US Economy could be cooling off.

And welcome to Meet the Press. Now I'm Ryan Nobles in for Chuck to We begin in uncharted territory for planet Earth. Yes, it's hot. Record showering hot not just in your city or state or even the United States, but globally.

Yesterday marked the unofficial record for the hottest day on the planet, breaking the previous record which was set just earlier this week. That's according to data analyzed by the University of Maine's Climate Reanalyzer, used by climate scientists to gauge worldwide conditions. Now records have been broken in western Canada, while cities in China have sweltered in more than a week long heatwave. Broad swaths of the US have also been baking under an extreme heat wave, particularly across the Southwest where Phoenix has seen a week of temperatures above 110 degrees and El Paso 21 days above 100.

Today, some 19 million Americans remain under heat alerts. But the climate crisis facing the planet goes beyond record high stretches lasting days or even weeks. The European Union's Copernicus climate change reported last month was the world's hottest June on record, while parts of the US Saw their warmest January to April ever, according to noaa. Now, in a report published Thursday, the director of climate services at the World Meteorological association warned that, quote, we are in uncharted territory.

This is worrying news for the planet. Now, despite scientists warnings as a public policy matter, climate change often faces political roadblocks. In a State of the Union, President Biden urged Americans to work together to confront the issue. Let's face reality.

The climate crisis doesn't care if you're in a red or blue state. It's an existential threat. We have an obligation not to ourselves, with our children and our grandchildren to confront it. I'm proud of how America at last is stepping up to the challenge.

But a pupil from last year shows that more that while more than half of Americans do agree that climate change is a major threat, there is a stark partisan divide on the issue. To break all this down now, I'm joined by NBC News meteorologist Bill Karens. So, Bill, break down this heat we're seeing across the country and the world right now. Is it as bad as it seems?

So climatologists. No, it's exactly what they've been saying and shouting from the rooftops for many years. Just all of a sudden now we have the data in front of us and people are going, oh, wait, you were right, it actually is happening. So let me just explain where we are and why it's happening right now and then where we're gonna go from here.

So you show this graph at the top of the show. It just shows that this is the current temperature of the globe. The global average includes everywhere. Antarctica, the North Pole, and it's about 60 degrees supposedly.

Where's the big deal? 63 degrees. My house is at 70 degrees. Well, that's the global temperature average.

And you know, it's factoring in winter in the Southern hemisphere also. So that's why it's only 63. It's not 90 years. I'm cr like that.

So what we've done the last four days is each and every day we've gotten a little bit warmer. So Monday we broke the record, and then Tuesday we broke the record. Wednesday actually tied Tuesday, and then Thursday broke the record Wednesday, and I wouldn't doubt it, today breaks the record for tomorrow. Typically in the Northern Hemisphere, we set the hottest temperature for the globe end of July, beginning of August.

So we're gonna have many headlines like this for next three, four weeks, eventually we'll peak and then we'll actually start cooling things down. The reason that happens, because it's a globe. There's a lot more land areas in the Northern hemisphere than the Southern Hemisphere. That's why we always peak the global temperature during the Northern hemisphere Summer and 2016 was the last time this happened.

Why is that important? That was the last strong El Nino, and that's what we're heading into now. So we're gonna get a lot of these temperature spikes, a lot of these records throughout the next year, year and a half. Because if we're heading into a strong El Nino, I can almost guarantee you, I'll bet a stick dare on it, that next year will be the warmest year ever on this planet because of El Nino.

El Nino's a bigger driver of the climate influence than, say, what we're doing with our greenhouse emissions, you know, polluting our planet. What we do is we raise the temperature 102 degrees. El Nino can change even more than that. So that's why El Nino, we're getting stuff like this.

Last night, the hottest night ever recorded in Africa, it only dropped to 103 degrees in Algeria. Quebec, 94 degrees all time hot. El Paso is about to break their record for the consecutive streak of 100 degree days. I can tell you, next week, Phoenix has a chance of breaking the record of 110 degree streaks.

And you have to remember, the oceans actually contain most of our heat. It has a higher heat capacity, so it absorbs the heat more than the land. And so the North Atlantic right now is on fire. I mean, it's the warmest that we've ever recorded by a long shot.

So that's something that one reason for hearing that hurricane season may be a little worse than expected is because that's the fuel for the storms. And then this is the El Nino, this little red stripe. And that's what really be driving things as we go throughout the next through winter and even into next year. So we just got done with three years of La Nina.

So a lot of people are like, oh, well, La Nina was cooling. We haven't seen a lot of record heat. That's because the oceans were keeping us cooler in a natural cycle. But that is now flipping to this warm pattern.

And when we get a huge chunk of the Pacific warmer than it should be, that is when we're going to see all of these crazy records coming. And by the way, you're talking about, you know, the political aspect of this, go back and Watch President Obama's second inauguration speech, how many times he mentions climate and climate change and fighting it and changing it. This isn't a new idea, just not a lot has been done about it. And it seems, Bill, that the difference was we used to talk about as something that would happen a long time from now.

And now it seems as though we're dealing with the reality of it in this current moment. Is that a fair assessment? It's been, if you look back at how much things have changed, how much have we warmed the planet since the pre industrial revolution? It's only 2 degrees.

So it's not something that you and I can even witness. It's happening in slow motion. But compared to climate changing on this planet. Yeah.

Which usually takes like 20,000 years. We've done that in under 200 years. So in the climate sense, it's happening really fast. It's really hard for people to divide weather versus climate.

I'm sure you've heard a million times people say, well, this spring wasn't that bad. And I can tell you June was the hottest June ever on this planet. But in the United states in lower 48, it was like an average June. It's actually cool in many areas.

We're still so influenced by what we see. It's really hard to just believe the scientists without putting your own experiences into this whole big puzzle, this master puzzle piece that we're putting together. Well, thank you for breaking it down scientifically, Bill Garrett. We appreciate it.

And joining me now to talk more about this is Florida Democratic Congressman Jared Moskowitz. So, Congressman, first, your reaction to these temperatures. You're a longtime climate policy advocate. Do you feel that lawmakers in Washington are as concerned about this as they should be?

Well, first, Ryan, thanks for having me in. Simple answer that is no, I'm not concerned. They'll blame it on some sort of cycle. They'll say, well, we had the ice age.

They'll come up with all sorts of excuses. But listen, anybody who knows who lives in areas that are prone to flooding has seen flooding more so than ever before. It's now flooding regular rainstorms like here in Florida. If you go to Fort Lauderdale or you go to Miami, it now floods.

Just when it rains. You don't need a tropical storm anymore for the regular currents. And with these temperatures that are going on, you know this is going to create all sorts of stronger storms as we're seeing, or stronger hurricanes. Here's what I will tell you.

I will tell you that from an emergency management standpoint, which is something I'm very deeply worried about. As we have additional climate change, as waters rise, we have water in places that we're not used to. And as temperatures increase, we have weather in places that we're not used to, which means the infrastructure is not prepared to take severe weather. Washington is doing nothing from a proactive basis to deal with those things.

Yes, there's money to deal with, you know, reducing climate change, but there's nothing that we're working on today on a proactive basis to help harden our infrastructure and harden our. Harden our roads and our homes and deal with the coming changes that we've dealt with. And that leads right to my next question, because it seems as though for many years we have treated climate change as kind of an existential threat that our children and grandchildren are going to have to deal with. Do we need to start thinking about climate as a current threat to life?

Something that's happening right now, not something that's only going to impact people in the future? Yeah, look, we've had these heat waves in the past, but we're not breaking all records, right? And so, yeah, this is something we have to deal with now when we have either dramatic cold or dramatic hot. Right.

These are things that require emergency management responses because obviously, like we saw in Texas a couple years ago, they lost the grid when the temperatures got so cold. And the same thing happens when the temperatures get so hot, you have rolling blackouts that have to happen. And so, you know, there's loss of life because people get caught outside. We've seen that people get dehydrated.

But I'm talking about from a global standpoint, from an emergency management standpoint that has to prepare to respond to these sort of events. You know, the idea that we're not doing anything proactive to deal with this today, tomorrow, or in 10 years is problematic. And coming from the state of Florida, which is very prone to hurricanes, is very prone to seeing hurricanes getting stronger, whether that was Hurricane Dorian that didn't hit, which broke all records, or Hurricane Michael and Hurricane Ian had five storms, you know, within five years of each other, is very concerning. So you have a unique experience in this realm because you work as the director of the Florida, Florida Division of Emergency Management.

How do you think it states that at heightened risk of these climate emergencies, like you're talking about these hurricanes, these very high and low temperatures, how should they be preparing right now for the possibility of serious issues related to climate? Well, I hate to. I hate to give answer that. Some people are gonna like but they gotta invest money.

I mean, that's really what's gotta happen here. They gotta invest money into emergency management, they gotta invest money into DOT to deal with the infrastructure. You know, they gotta invest money into, you know, the water utilities. I mean, it's gonna require us investing money into our grid.

I mean, it requires investment. And the idea is, because we know it's coming and we can be proactive, we can amortize that cost over a period of time rather than always being reactive. But unfortunately we're being this country and Washington, D.C. especially is much better dealing with disaster as it comes live rather than planning for the inevitable.

And that's what is concerning here, is that we know this is coming. We know we're dealing with more water, we know we're going to be dealing with more serious weather. And we can be investing now so we can bring that cost shot down, but we're not doing anything. Washington for proactive basis.

It's interesting that you raise that point because couldn't you make an argument that there's a way to sell investment in climate change to the American people? I mean, we've seen situations now where NOAA has tracked nine what they call billion dollar disasters, meaning that the cost of these huge storms comes after the fact. And in California and in your state of Florida, there are some major insurers that say that they're not even to sell new homeowners policies anymore because it's just not worth their investment. Is there an argument to be made?

Better to spend the money now than spend triple, maybe quadruple the amount after? Yeah, when the algorithms are starting to tell insurance companies that a state is no longer a good investment, that should be a wake up call. When the computers are saying we're not going to insure your home, you know, and they're telling us that, you know, there's a problem that should give a wake up call. No, of course, listen, FEMA has shown that when they invest money, they spend money proactively in mitigation.

It saves something like three or four dollars for every dollar that they invest. And so yes, we would save money for sure on the back end if we invest it, invest on the front end. But look, we're going to have to change certain things. We're going to have to elevate roads, we're going to have to talk about elevating homes.

Right? We're going to talk about seawalls, we're going to talk about these projects that are very, very expensive. Look, there's infrastructure dollars that are out there right now. There's inflation reduction dollars out there that can help you with time change.

And these are all great policies that the Biden administration helped pass. But the problem, it's going to take more than just those two pieces of legislation to help get us there. We just have a little bit of time left here, Congressman. But I have to ask you, do your constituents equate these natural disasters, these extreme temperatures, specifically with climate change?

Are you starting to notice them making that connection or is it still two different conversations? So I'll tell you the answer is yes. And the reason it's happening in Florida is the water. Water is now in places that it never used to be.

So like I said, it could be a regular Thursday. You get an afternoon rainstorm and people who have lived in a community for 10 or 15 years are seeing a street flooded that never used to flood before. And they're understanding that's because the water table is elevated. Right?

That's because the tide is higher. And so, yeah, people are starting to equate that here in Florida with seeing water in certain places. I mean, obviously we've seen Hurricane Michael and Hurricane Ian, two catfire storms in a five year period. But the algorithms are blinking red saying Florida is a problem.

And so look, this is not just a Florida problem. This a Texas problem. This is a Mississippi problem, Louisiana problem, south down problem. You go out to the west coast, okay, where there's water issues at the Colorado River.

This is a problem for the entire country. And, you know, if we don't start to become proactive, problem will become so big and so expensive that people are just gonna say, well, we can't fix it. It's not fixable because we let it get to a point that it's not fixable. And right now we can do it a lot to be way more proactive and invest the money, especially into emergency management that will help mitigate these effects on communities.

Okay. Congressman Jared, Moscow, thank you so much for your time, sir. Thanks. And coming up, 500 days of war.

The US officially announces it's sending a controversial weapon to Ukraine. Is the Pentagon reports a second incident of Russian jets harassing U.S. drones. New reporting coming up next.

Plus 100 days of Russian detention. The latest on the mission to free American journalist Evan Gurkovich when whether a potential prisoner exchange could be on the table. You're watching Meet the Press now. Last summer, the coolest place in the house was in your freezer.

This year, it's time to level up. Reliance Home Comfort has over 160,000. 5 star reviews for delivering the tech of outstanding customer experience Canadians have counted on for over 60 years. Right now, don't pay for 12 months on a featured air conditioner or heat pump.

Call on the experts that know how to beat the heat conditions apply. See website for details. Welcome back. Tomorrow we'll mark another grim milestone in the war in Ukraine.

500 days since Russia launched its brutal invasion. Since the start of the war, the UN estimates that more than 9,000 civilians have died and nearly 16,000 others have been injured, though the UN also says those numbers are likely considerably higher. The UN also estimates that more than 5.9 million people have been internally displaced in Ukraine. With NATO's leaders set to convene next week, President Zelensky is pushing for a clear signal from the alliance that Ukraine is on track to join the defense pact.

Meanwhile, the Biden administration announced a controversial decision earlier today saying it would provide cluster bombs to Ukraine as it pushes ahead with its counteroffensive campaign. This is what National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan had to say this afternoon just ahead of the administration's formal announcement. We recognize the cluster munitions created risk of civilian harm from unexploited ordinance. This is why we deferred the decision for as long as we could.

But there is also a massive risk of civilian harm if Russian troops and tanks roll over Ukrainian positions and take more Ukrainian territory and subjugate more Ukrainian civilians because Ukraine does not have enough artillery that is intolerable to us. And moments ago at an event at the White House, President Biden was asked by reporters on the decision to send cluster munitions to Ukraine now. And his response is that they're running out of ammunition. For more this, I'm joined now by Courtney Kibi at the Pentagon.

So as a Courtney, explain to me what about these cluster bombs make them so controversial and how soon could we see them in Ukraine? So it's the dud rate is really the problem here. That's why many nations, 100, have actually outlawed these munitions. What that means is these are munitions that when it explodes, it releases a bunch of small little bombs or munitions.

They're often called bomblets. They have two main missions. One is anti armor. So it's a shaped charge that essentially can pierce an up armored vehicle.

The other is anti personnel. That is what we often hear in the military talking about frags or fragmentation. Essentially those are the munitions that explode into even smaller pieces. Think about that.

When it impacts a body, Ryan, of course, it has the potential character to injure or kill anyone in its path. So these munitions, when they release these bomblets, depending on the type of cluster munitions, some of them have a very high dead rate, meaning that the bomblets don't immediately explode. These have the potential to cause catastrophic destruction to someone, a civilian, even a child, who may stumble upon them weeks, months, even years later. That's one of the reasons that human rights groups and many nations have said they condemned the use of these sorts of battles.

And I should say the US says that the version that they're going to send has a very low dud rate somewhere in the neighborhood of one and a half to about two and a half percent, as opposed to some of the other ones we've seen. According to the US the ones that Russians are using have some in the neighborhood of 30 to 40%. That means that nearly half of those but the Russian are using on the battlefield in Ukraine the potential to not explode when the bomblets, when they're fired off from Iran. Yeah.

And Corey, you mentioned that there are other countries who are opposed to the use of this type of weapon. Some of them are NATO countries. And of course, the president is going to be with some of these NATO countries next week. Will he get some pushback from these countries because of making this decision?

And not just NATO countries. We're talking about the closest US allies who are part of NATO who are opposed to the use of these weapons. Now, the US before they announced this today, they spoke to most of these countries. Many of them, they reached out, they gave them a heads up that this was coming.

The officials have been speaking to here say, look, the country, these allies have said they're against the use, but they don't expect any widespread public pushback on it. There's a real recognition here of exactly what we heard from President Biden just moments ago that Ukraine needs ammunition. These have the ability to essentially fill a bridge while where Ukraine right now has a real deficit in artillery rounds, particularly one fight, five rounds. This will be something that they can use in that place while the US and other nations really ramp up production of the artillery rounds so they can keep Ukraine in the fight.

Okay, according to the Pentagon. Thank you so much for that, Courtney. And as we mentioned, Tomorrow will mark 500 days since Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine. But Today is the 100th day in Russian detention for Wall Street Journal.

Reporter Evan Gursvich has been wrongfully detained since March while on reporting from Russia and is facing espionage charges which the Wall Street Journal and the US Government both deny. He's the first American journalist Detained in Russia on spying charges since the Cold War. This morning's family put out a statement saying, quote, every day that Evan isn't home is another day to many. We miss our son and we will not stop until he is free.

Ali Rizzi is covering this story from London. So there have been some potential talks of a prisoner swapper. Evan Gracevich. What's the latest on his detainment?

Hey, ryan. Well, we're 100 days into his detention and his appeal has been turned down. And most recently, National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan speaking about an hour ago, said that there was no clear answer on how to return Evan Goshelovich and he didn't want to give any false hope. Now, Ambassador Lynn Tracy, U.S.

ambassador in Russia, met Gosh for the second time earlier this month in the notorious Olefotova prison in Moscow. She reported he was in good health and remained strong despite the circumstances. And those circumstances are very tough. It's a very difficult, very lonely place where he is.

As for the status of a possible release or prisoner swap, even though still very early days, there seems to be a small glimmer of hope. Russia says it's had contacts with the US Over Evan's case suggesting the possibility of a prisoner exchange. And when Kremlin spokesman Dimitri Peskov was asked about the possibility of an exchange, he said that there are certain contacts on this matter, but he doesn't want to make them public. So some traction, but we don't know exactly where it's going.

Of course, the last prisoner exchange, the one involving Brittney Griner the US Gave up Victor Bout was known as the merchant of death. Is there something that Russia is looking to get back that could be used? I hate to use this terminology, but as a bargaining chip in this particular case. Yeah.

Well, Ryan, initially, one question we all had after Gushavich was arrested is, is the US holding any high profile Russians that may be part of a swap? And nothing obvious popped out. And now a name is being bandied about a guy called Vladimir Dunaev, who is detained in the US on cybercrime charges and whom the Russian embassy staff also recently visited. The timing is unlikely to be a coincidence, but even if something is in the pipeline, it's probably not going to happen particularly quickly.

If we look at how the Russians have handled previous cases, like Brittany Griner, like Trevor Reid, they seem to follow a pattern. The Kremlin says it doesn't interfere in the judicial process of the courts. The courts find the person that they've arrested guilty, they get a harsh sentence, spend some time in a penal colony. And then there has changed.

It took 10 months to get Brittney Griner back and almost three years to get Trevor Reid back. So it's still very early stages and there's a lot of negotiating that needs to be done to see even if they could do a swap. So there's still quite a long way from that if it doesn't. And of course, you mentioned those two Americans that were returned.

But then Paul Whelan is still detained in Russia. He's been there for some time. Could he be a part of any of these conversations of a potential prisoner exchange? Yeah, that's right.

Paul Whelan's been there for almost six years. Whether he could be part of a swap seems less unlikely. The State Department made it very clear they want him back. They regard him as wrongfully detained.

He's coming up to six years. And for whatever reason, the Russians are making it very difficult to get him released. And let's not forget they have two other Americans there as well, but their names are not really coming up right now. Okay.

Ali Rizzi, thank you so much for your reporting. We appreciate it. And we do have a special programming note before we go to break. On Assignment WITH Richard Engel is out with a new special report exploring how Putin's former protege Yevgeny Prigozhin turned on his boss and launched a crisis in Russia.

The Revolt from Within the Rise of Wagner is available to stream on Peacock tonight. And up next, it's the economy. We'll dig into today's jobs report amid signs of a cooling economy next. You're watching.

Be pressed now. Welcome back. Turning now to today's new jobs numbers, which the White House is keenly watching as President Biden stakes part of his re election campaign on his handling of the economy. That economy is cooling.

In June, employers added 209,000 new jobs to their payrolls according to the Labor Department, and that is slightly below expectations. Earlier in the year, the economy was averaging more than 300,000 new jobs each month. Now the employment rate stayed steady at 3.6%. Now wage growth also a bit stronger than expected, but the most part, workers haven't been feeling those gains due to inflation.

The White House tried to take credit for the jobs growth in a statement today saying this is Bidenomics in action. Polling, however, has consistently shown that a majority of Americans still disapproving of President Biden's handling of the issue. Joining me now is Daniel Swan. She's the chief economist at KPMG so, Diane, a lot to unpack with these numbers.

There's been a lot of concern about a potential recession this year. Do you feel that we're out of the woods? I hope we're out of the woods. I don't know that we're out of the woods yet, but I've just, you know, it's never happened that we've been able to derail an inflation that's gone on for this long without a recession.

But it does look like we're moving in a path that might get us there. One of the big issues that we're seeing come up in the jobs numbers is that in fact we are seeing an increase in immigration in the US which is better helping balance supply and demand in the labor market, although we still have many too few workers relative to the number of job openings out there and a lot of job openings that can't be filled. The good news is what we've seen is smaller firms have been able to absorb the layoffs at larger firms, and I think that's really important as well. What I do think the Fed is going to be watching is the fact that we saw wages hold up and sort of plateau.

It's looking sticky, much like the service sector inflation out there. And for the Federal Reserve, that means they're going to hike again in July and most likely in September. We are getting close, though, I think, to a peak in the fed funds rate. So help the average folks watching today wrap their arms around the actual state of the economy.

I mean, all these numbers seem relatively strong, but things have been strange since the cold recovery. What does the average American think about the direction of the economy? Well, the good news is the economy continues to be remarkably resilient, and that's great. Why individuals are upset is also understandable is that they got their moment in the sun as wages accelerated and then got burned by inflation.

And I think that's where the dichotomy has been, is that even as people were earning more in their paychecks, it wasn't enough to compensate them for inflation. We're finally starting to see inflation cool. But those borrowers who have taken on more credit card debt and drain the savings that was left from the excess after the pandemic, they now feel more strapped and are paying higher interest rates. So all of it leads up to a situation where the aggregate numbers can look very good, where individuals feel the crimp of things like higher rate and the still slow burn of simmering inflation.

Yeah, that's a great way to put It. So let's talk about the economic data showing that wage worth may have finally caught up to inflation, which is part of what we're talking about there. Will there come a point where Americans actually feel this impact? I think I certainly hope so and I am optimistic that we're going in that direction.

The problem is it's going to be in fits and starts over the summer. In particular, we do know that, you know, inflation was so high a year ago that it's going to look like inflation is coming down even more rapidly than it actually is because you've got those year and your comps are going to diminish quite dramatically. That said, there is some cooling. What we worry about, what the Fed is worried about and why they're not stopping yet in terms of rate hikes.

It's a service sector where there's underlying inflation that's, you know, seen it from firsthand going through airports these days. There were record numbers almost all week long in gsa. Throughput, travel, leisure and medical costs all catching up with us. Those are the areas the Fed's worrying about now is everything from entertainment into amusement parks.

All of those things are what we're seeing. Where inflation is. If we can see it cool in the service sector, a lot more people will feel better about the U.S. economy.

Okay, so we saw this particular jobs report. A reduction in the number of jobs the economy is adding is that trend that could continue for the next 12 to 24 months. What's your outlook there? I do actually think we're gonna see a slowdown in job contributions going forward.

We could even see some slip into negative without technically getting into a recession. I do think we're gonna see an increasing unemployment rate as the number of people coming into the labor force don't get all the jobs that given the current of higher rates, it's not technically a recession, but it's also not a perfect economy. A soft landing is still mushy and not exactly pleasant. And I think that's what people have to sort of brace themselves for as we're going forward.

There is a bite of higher rates and we've yet to fail all of the full effects of all the rate hikes we've already had and the tightening still in the system. All right, so my last question for you is a relatively rosy conversation here. But what keeps you up at night when it comes to this economy? Is there something in particular that has you worried?

There's a lot of things that keep me up at night, unfortunately. It's part of my job even on a Fourth of July and holiday week. But with that said, I think the biggest thing that I worry about is that we're going to be going into a period in the winter that could be a little bit more dicey and thinner ice. I am extremely humbled and welcome the fact that I've been wrong so far on a recession.

But, you know, you do worry about our a broken watch being right twice, two times a day. Well, I do worry about that we still could fall into a recession in early 2024, late 2023, as the bite of those higher rates really have their full impact. But I'm going to hope right now and forecast that we're going to slightly skirt that scenario. Well, D TR analysis as much as anyone in the business.

But I do hope you're wrong about that. And I'll send you some melatonin so you can get some sleep at night, not have to worry about all these things you worry about. I appreciate beer. Thank you.

And after the break, a fracture on the far right. The House Freedom Caucus took a vote to owe Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Green weeks ago, but it's unclear if it worked. Her response to what it means for the party. The panel's next.

You're watching. Welcome back. Turning to the 2024 Republican presidential primary in Florida, Governor Ron DeSantis want you to know that this campaign is going just fine. Thanks for asking.

Despite distantly trailing former President Donald Trump and polls across the board, DeSantis pointed to his campaign's second quarter fundraising numbers to make the case that his campaign just needs to get some time to find a groove. Take a listen. This campaign just started, but I think it's pretty clear that I'm the guy that not only can beat Biden, I'm the guy that can beat the left on all these different issues. Did you just see the news today about the record fundraising hall we've had?

Nobody's been able to match that in the history of modern presidential politics. So we got a huge amount of support to be able to take the case to the people. We really haven't started that yet. We're in the process of building out a great organization and I think we're beyond the ground in all these early states.

And joining me now on set is my NBC News Capitol Hill colleague, Sahil Kapoor, Samantha Meyer, former Democrat, mayor of Ithaca, New York, and now the president of People for the American Way and Sarah Chamberlain, the president of the Republican Main Street Partnership. And we're gonna start off by saying that even though Savante and Sara, both from upstate New York, and I'm not Buffalo Bills fans, we did not kick them off the set despite that error in judgment. So, Sarah, let's start with you because you're the Republican on our panel today. Do you believe the DeSantis talking point here, that the reports of his demise are greatly exaggerated?

Does he still have a shot here despite what the polls are telling us? I think he absolutely does. I think he has to speed it up quickly, though. I think his wife, little commercial spot today might help with suburban women.

But yes, I think there's absolutely a possibility. But as I said, he's got to kick this in a gear. I mean, people are starting to think. He doesn't have the argument, though, that fundraising tells us everything because of another Florida governor who raised a lot of money and never got out of the gate lost.

Donald Trump as well. There's been a few of them. It certainly helps that he's raised a lot of money. Okay, so, you know, he, the census, his, his shot this week of troubles, him not being a team player, that he's not on board with the Republican Party.

I believe we have a sound of him saying that. Let's play that. Also been attacked more than anybody, as you know. Well, you know, Donald Trump has spent over 20 million attacking me.

That's more than he spent supporting Republican candidates in last year's midterm elections. At the end of the day, people do want to win, though. And, you know, you can't win with just Republican voters. I think we showed in Florida, if you want a big victory, you gotta win independent voters.

You gotta win people who haven't voted for our party in the last several cycles. Is that something that voters care about or is it just something consultants care about? It's not something that Republican primary voters care about. It's a niche message tailored to Republican consultants and for their local, you know, I guess national Republican elected officials in D.C.

who care about the UN community message. I'm sure there's some Republican donors who might care about it, but Republican primary voters do not care about it. If they did, Donald Trump would never be denied me to begin with. His Entire campaign in 2016 was predicated on the Republican establishment as terrible and has to be taken down.

And I'm about to do it. And they love that. Now, his message for 2020 is I'm going to finish the job and root out those, you know, Romney, Ryan, McCain elements that are still somewhat of a force within the party. The Republican primary base does not care about Ronald Reagan's 11th Commandment anymore, another Republican.

So you had to roll your eyes when you heard Ron DeSantis make the argument that his policies in Florida are going to appeal to independent and Democratic voters. When we're talking about a guy who saw very conservative positions on things like abortion. I just had this very controversial video on LGBTQ rights or the lack thereof of. Doesn't this actually make it more toxic than Trump in a general election?

Absolutely. And this is the key. You know, Trump has always been very good at riding this fine line between the sad and the unsaid. And here, Ron DeSantis signing a 6 abortion bill, sending a signal to voters all across the country that if president he would ban abortion nationwide.

That's what a six week bill does. That's gonna freak people out that he needs to win the support. I think that's why he's not climbing the polls. But I do, I think that this thing is not over.

The fact that Trump is not cracking 50% in the early polls means that there is an opening. DeSantis is. Yes. On the campaign trail is coming across as shrill.

And yes, some of his stances like banning LGBT education and banning abortion are freaking out voters. But there's still a chance for him or somebody else to make a run. There's an element of this that everything old is new again. There's some parts of the Desensitis campaign that running in Ruby from 2016, that I'm the elected one attacking me.

Look at enemies. They're doing it because they fear me and provoking win independent voters. People think they're. That's true, but that is his message.

He's also taking a page from Ted Cruz playbook in 2016, running the Trump's right and believing that there are these ideologically motivated, ideologically motivated Republicans who will look at his positions to the right of Trump on abortion, on immigration, on LGBT rights and think he's the guy. We'll see if it works. George. Ted Cruz would have won.

Right? So the 2, 4. Let's get. I want to show you a poll that I believe we had that we asked about issues related to things like this in a June poll.

And without saying that they're for Trump, Republican voters are pretty loudly saying they like Donald Trump. Right. I mean, take a look at these numbers of GOP primary voters. Would you vote for a candidate who says Trump won in 2020?

11 points to the positive there, but then some of these more traditional, what you think would be traditional Republican positions supporting more aid to Ukraine. That gets a negative 24%. These are all all right. Out of the Trump version of the Republican Party's playbook.

How does anybody else stand a chance where this is where the energy is in the Republican primary right now? They don't. But again, we've got some more time to go, so let's not write off some of the other candidates. I think Tim Scott's sitting there with great potential to move up pretty quickly.

We'll have to just see how his campaign goes. But there are three or four others that could come up out of nowhere and surprise us all. How important you think the debate plays in all this, then? I think it's extremely important, though I don't think Trump will be on the stage because that helper hurt him.

Is that getting opening or something? Because it's opening to someone, and hopefully someone will take that opening and then Trump will have to be there for the second day. Interesting. All right, let's talk about Margaret Green on one of her favorite topics.

Kind of a weird dynamic here. They had a vote a couple weeks ago. Apparently she was booted, but now no one is officially saying that she was booting. What about make this.

Yeah. I never thought I'd live to see the day where Marjorie Taylor Greene gets cast out as a rhino squish. Apparently, the reason that they voted her out was a proximity to Speaker McCarthy that she didn't support the film. This time around, the Freedom Caucus is supposedly about 35 to 40 members.

About 20 of them have been very actively confrontational with Kevin McCarthy. If this is the basis forking her out that I wonder what happens to the other 20 members, including founding member of the Freedom Caucus, Jim Jordan. It's a very similar approach, but there's a bizarre element to this. The Freedom Caucus leadership is not saying whether she's out.

Tweet it, call her, tell us, Speak. Yeah. And it was interesting. I talked to a Freedom Caucus source who told me that the Freedom Caucus's biggest problem is they don't play by their own rules.

So they have a rule, a mechanism to do this. But even the chairman, Scott Perry, is afraid to say that the vote, which worship was overwhelming to boot her from the caucus is enough. Could have something to do with the fact that she's one of their big fundraisers. But Sabbath Day.

I want to read something from Green State and how you react to this. This is what she said. I fight every single day in the halls of Congress. Again, the Hate America Democrats were trying to destroy this country.

I will work with anyone who wants to Secure our border, protect our children inside the womb and after they are born, end the forever wars and do the work to save this country. How do you, it seems like you're saying two things here. I will work with anybody except basically everybody that she's talking about. Yeah.

And of course, that's the, you know, this is the star treatment. Right? This is the, you can't kick me out of the band. I am the band.

And I wish I lived in a country where Marjorie Taylor Greene was not the band. But in this case, and we're talking about the caucus and the House majority, which Kevin Carthy holds by Razor's Edge, she's probably right that the caucus needs her more than she needs the caucus. And their attempts to expel her is probably too little, too late. She's bicker, as you mentioned, she's a better fundraiser than most of the people who are left in that caucus.

And I think that this squabble, you know, the reason I'm smiling, I probably shouldn't again, because it's not healthy for the state of our democracy. But any day in which a fight between Margaret Green, Lauren Boebert is in front of the American people and the American voters is a good day for President Biden's reelection campaign and the hopes of Democrats to retake the House of Representatives because it looks like the meanest kids from middle school fighting over the dumbest things instead of fighting to make America's lives better. I mean, it must frustrate his Republican right there. Sure does.

Absolutely. Because our members really are the majority makers and they're trying, they're, they're trying to do what's right for the country. They're tired of these little fights, son. I mean, it's ridiculous.

Those two women did was absurd to that point. What do your members do here? Because I talked to a lot of them, you know, these more moderate Republicans that are there because they want to get something done, who have a right leaning view of the world. But it seems in many cases they're just drowned out by the noise from these members on the far right.

How do they assert themselves, themselves as we go forward for the last part of the democracy speakership? Well, they are drowned out as far as the media goes, but they're not drowned out as far as legislation goes. I mean, the bill to impeach Biden got moved to committee. I mean, they've had a lot of great successes because they do stick together.

They don't have squabbles on the floor. They don't vote each other in and out of the Main Street Caucus, but they've had wonderful victories. It's just, you know, none of them are getting a lot of media. You know, they're not going to say, you know, kind of crazy stuff on tv.

Right? Right. And they put a major role getting that dead sailing bill and averting a disaster for sure. Sarah, we appreciate being here despite your lack of Bill fandom.

We'll work on that again. Before we go break, I want to bring an update tied to that tragic shooting in 2019 at an El Paso Walmart that left 23 people dead, 22 people injured today. The Texas man responsible for the incident was sentenced to 90 consecutive life sentences. Patrick Crucius had admitted to the shooting and pleaded guilty in February to 90 federal hate crimes and firearms violations.

He has described himself as a white nationalist and said that he targeted perceived Hispanic immigrants in what was the deadliest attack against Latinos in modern American history. The sentencing comes after two days of victim impact statements where families of those killed spoke of their anger and pain. Here's what one of those family members told reporters. We should not have had to wait four years for this guy to go to jail or the death penalty.

He's a piece of trash. I really don't have any feelings towards him. Still to come, PGA4 executives are to testify before Senate lawmakers next week as the company's deal to merge with a Sally Back Live Golf faces growing scrutiny in the world of sports and politics. The details are you're watching me, the Press now.

And welcome back. Congress will be back from its Fourth of July recess next week and focusing on all things golf, the Senate Homeland Security Committee is set to hear testimony from PGA Tour officials about its pending merger with the Saudi Arabian backed Live Golf Tour Now Live has faced scrutiny from lawmakers and golf enthusiasts since it was founded two years ago. And the PGA's sudden and surprising decision to merge with a rival tour has generated a number of questions for policymakers, players and tour executives. And I'm joined now by Washington Post columnist Sally Jenkins, who's written extensively about this controversy.

So, Sally, what would be your first question if you had the opportunity to serve the United States Senate and ask these PGA officials about this pending merger? My first question would be, was there an open bidding process here before you sold yourself lock, stock and barrel to the Saudi Public Investment Fund? Why was the Saudi Public Investment Fund the only investor or the only way out of your business predicament? And why were your own players not informed of the negotiations?

And furthermore, how does this deal not reduce competition and violate the Clayton Act. So I would actually have quite a lot of questions for them. Yeah, it's interesting because I've, you know, kind of bugged a number of centers about this topic and surprising to me how little they have to say about it. This is what Senator Ron Johnson told the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel this week about the Saudi specifically.

He said, there's just certain realities in the world that whether you like it or not, you have to. Except one of the realities is that I'd rather be a US Government and have them be dealing with Saudi Arabia rather than antagonize them and have them go rushing into the arms of our adversaries like China or Russia. Do you think that that is a reasonable argument, particularly when it comes to something like this merger? Well, yes, but that doesn't really address what's happening here.

There's a difference between accepting limited Saudi investment, which lots of American companies do, but most of those companies have a pretty strict limit on how much sovereign money they will accept from foreign governments. I think it's usually around 20%. This is quite different. You know, there's a difference between the Saudi public investment fund investing in Uber.

They have to put their money somewhere and invest somewhere. And there's a difference between selling, as Lilmenthal called it, a cherished American institution, lock, stock and barrel, you know, wholesale to this public investment fund. The details of the deal are very murky. You know, how much control the PGA Tour play would maintain over their own destinies, how much leverage this Saudi investment really creates for the Saudi government over.

Over this American business. Those are all really interesting and as yet unanswered questions. And do you agree that the Justice Department should investigate this merger? That's something that both Elizabeth Warren and Ron Widener are suggesting.

They said the PGA Live deal would make US organizations complicit and force American golfers and their fans to join this complicity. And the Saudi Arabian's latest attempt to sanitize its abuses by pouring funds into major sports league. I mean, is that part of what concerns you here? It's different.

As you say, kind of just an investment, something like Uber. This is a very public facing opportunity for the Saudis to try and present themselves to the world maybe differently than what they actually are. Yes, and it's also, you know, the PGA Tour has existing deals with sponsors like Federal Express. I mean, there's a bunch of American companies that sponsor the PGA Tour.

They have broadcast deals with, you know, our networks. And there's so many questions about what happens to those agreements. And apparently the wording, as far as I can tell from having read it, all the commercial interest of the PGA Tour would be moved into a new company that the Saudi public investment fund contact, Yasser Al Ramayyan, would be the chair of. And so you're talking about all of the business of the PGA Tour suddenly moving into this company that is essentially controlled by the Saudi public investment fund.

I would add one more thing that I think is why the Justice Department will be looking at this and why other government entities will be looking at this. Sportswashing is not just about sort of creating public amnesia. When foreign government money winds up in American companies, it can hobble the State Department in its actions and in drawing certain lines around certain public issues. You know, when there's a lot of American corporate interest or that could be potentially damaged by State Department action, that complicates everything.

And so, yes, this is a perfectly legitimate and, in fact, very important subject for governmental inquiry. Okay. Sal Jenkins has written brilliantly about this particular topic. We so appreciate you being here with us for this conversation.

Thanks again. And tonight we have new episodes of MEET THE PRESS Reports taking a deep dive into the secret war on terror. Catch it at 10:30 Eastern right here on NBC News now and again on Sunday morning. And if it's Sunday, it's MEET THE Press on your local NBC News stations.

Trump will have exclusive interviews with Governor Phil Murphy and presidential candidate Doug Burgum. But the news continues with Hallie Jackson. Right now. I'm Craig Knoff.

Cheers. Cheers. Cheers. I've always been a glass half full kind of guy, and now I'm talking to some people who look at the world that way, too.

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