Meet the Press NOW — March 4

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I'm Kristen Welker. And that was the closing bell on wall street where the Dow ended the day down more than 650 points. It shed more than 3% over the last two days. As president Trump makes good on his promise to impose sweeping new tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China, United States largest trading partners, China and Canada immediately announced retaliatory measures.

Mexico says it will announce its response this weekend. It all comes as president Trump prepares to deliver the biggest address of his second term at just hours from now in front of a joint session of Congress where he is expected to make a fiery case for his sweeping agenda. And the run up to those remarks, the economic fallout from an escalating trade war, including potential job losses and inflation is taking center stage. Here's Canadian prime minister Justin Trudeau this afternoon, vowing revenge and calling the president's tariff move, quote, a very dumb thing to do to such a close ally.

So today the United States launched a trade war against Canada. Their closest partner and ally, their closest friend. At the same time, they're talking about working positively with Russia, appeasing Vladimir Putin, a lying, murderous dictator. Make that make sense.

Canadians are reasonable and we are polite, but we will not back down from a fight. Not when our country and the well-being of everyone in it is at stake. I want to speak first directly to the American people. We don't want this.

We want to work with you as a friend and ally. And we don't want to see you hurt either. But your government has chosen to do this to you. A senior Trump administration official tells NBC News that tariffs will be one of the things President Trump focuses on tonight in a speech that will center around, quote, the renewal of the American dream.

Republican leaders in Congress today rallying around the president's tariff decision. You have to think about the economic impacts through inflation. I think you have to look at growth in the economy and how that's impacted by all this. Those are real issues.

I do think the president has been very specific. He is somebody who believes in peace through strength and is trying to assert American strength on the global stage and more immediately in our relationships with our northern and southern neighbors who, frankly, again, have let their borders get completely out of control. The president tonight is also expected to talk about immigration and call for more funding for his mass deportation efforts. He's also expected to defend those massive cuts to the federal government and mass layoffs to federal workers with Elon Musk in the audience and address his stunning shakeup of American alliances as the White House pauses military aid to Ukraine, likely giving Russia the upper hand on the battlefield and in potential peace talks at this moment.

Democrats, meanwhile, are hoping to mount a political counteroffensive warning of the potential consequences of a trade war and the impact that drastic budget cuts could have on entitlements. Freshman Senator Alyssa Slotkin of Michigan will deliver their response to this photo of her preparations earlier in the day. Slotkin outperformed Kamala Harris in last November's election in Michigan. Her victory was one of Democrats' few bright spots of the 2024 election.

NBC News Senior White House correspondent Kelly O'Donnell joins me now. Also with me is NBC News Capitol Hill correspondent Melanie Zanona and NBC News Business and Data correspondent Brian Chun. Thanks to all of you for starting us off on this historic day, the day that President Trump will deliver his joint address to Congress. Kelly, let me start with you there at the White House.

The markets have faced two consecutive turbulent days, major indexes in the red, and economists warn that American consumers are about to pay higher prices because of the tariffs. What are your sources inside the White House telling you about the moon and what President Trump plans to say tonight? Well, one of the really notable things about the market reaction is that President Trump has long been one who would tout the market's successes when they reflected on him and suggested that the overall economy was performing well. And even though that is not in and of itself a complete snapshot of what the economy is doing, it's one measure.

And he is not talking about the stock market right now. And he has suggested repeatedly that there could be some short-term inconvenience for some consumers with the advent of the tariffs that he is now putting into force. That is something that certainly economists are saying. It will be quick in certain areas, perishable goods.

It may take a longer time where inventories are greater for other kinds of goods that people buy. And for big-ticket items like cars, it may take some time in the supply chain for people to feel it immediately, but that those costs would be passed on. So the White House is still maintaining that these tariffs are meant to level the playing field. And the President maintains that other countries have not treated the buying power of the United States fairly.

And he is hoping that some of that money that comes in through tariffs can be used to strengthen the country's financial picture with, of course, severe debt that the country is trying to balance. Tonight, the President is expected to talk about tariffs and to talk about his vision of why they are necessary and how they will encourage people to bring business inside the United States where tariffs would not be at play. That is not something that happens immediately. And so if that is going to be an incentive, the President will have more work to do to try to bring that together.

And we're already seeing the countries will respond because of the tariffs that President Trump is putting on them. So there will be waves of this in the days to come, Kristen. And, Kelly, of course, all of this comes against the backdrop of this standoff with Ukraine, the United States, pulling aid from Ukraine. Some are looking at the situation and calling it a realignment.

The White House says not so. They say this is what the President campaigned on, trying to negotiate a deal. This is part of the deal-making process. What are you hearing about that and what he intends to say tonight in that regard?

When you see three events, the very difficult meeting with Volodymyr Zelensky in the White House last week where he was ultimately asked to leave and things got heated, you have the vote at the United Nations where the U.S. sided not with our European allies but with Russia, North Korea and others. And then you have pausing the Ukraine support, the military support from the United States, which has been appropriated by Congress. And this is a pause, not a cessation, as far as we understand it.

Those three data points tell you that the President is clearly trying to put a lot of pressure on Zelensky and Ukraine to reach a deal. If the President is able to achieve a deal, that would certainly be a considerable success that he would tout. A lot of the questions remain about what that deal would look like, how favorable would it be to Russia. And so those are the pieces of this.

We expect Ukraine to come up tonight, and certainly because Congress has played such an essential role in providing that funding, that could be one of those moments where you see Republicans and Democrats responding differently. Kristen? We'll be watching very closely for the response on both sides of the aisle. And that takes me to Mel on Capitol Hill.

So let's talk about what we're seeing from congressional Republicans who, quite frankly, have been on board with just about everything President Trump has done so far. But what has their reaction been publicly and privately to the tariffs? Yeah, this is no different, because publicly there is broad support from Republicans for these tariffs, which, as we point out, is pretty much the case of anything Trump does here on Capitol Hill. And the general response I've gotten from Republicans in talking to them over these past few days is they are willing to give Trump a long leash and some wide latitude to achieve these objectives.

But they have given different responses when it comes to exactly what those objectives are. Some Republicans, including Trump himself, who said these retaliatory tariffs are in response to open borders, in response to trying to contain the flow of fentanyl coming across the borders. But other Republicans, including Speaker Mike Johnson, have given a different justification. Take a listen.

If we have a country that we have a huge trade imbalance with because they're charging 100% tariff on imports from the U.S., well, then we need to bring that down. How do we bring it down? By giving them their own medicine. My suspicion is if there's a country that's charging us hypothetically 100% tariffs on imports and we do the same, they will begin to lower those import tariffs pretty quickly.

And you will get back to a point of equilibrium that does resemble free trade again. I think that's good for the American people and for our country. And as the President said, just have a little patience with this. Let it play out, see how it develops.

And I think at the end of the day, America's going to be better off. But behind the scenes, there are some Republicans who are uneasy with these tariffs. There's concerns about the cost of goods going up and that could be a huge issue in the next midterm elections. And there's also concern from Republicans in agriculture-heavy states that this is going to hit farmers and hit producers.

And so it was interesting to hear John Thune, who fails from one of those ag-heavy states, saying that he supports Trump, stands by Trump for now, but that he hopes these tariffs are only temporary. Yeah, I think that privately a number of Republicans are expressing some consternation, that's for sure. Now, let me ask you about the Democratic response by Senator Slotkin. It kind of takes on new meaning, given the Democrats are really struggling to figure out what their message is moving forward.

What are you expecting? Yeah, and Kristen, I know you've done some great reporting on this as well. She's told reporters that she plans to really lean into her hometown roots. She's from Michigan.

Obviously, that is a state that Trump won, but she was able to prevail as well in the election. So she's been a sort of rare bright spot for Republicans. And notably, she's going to be giving her speech from a town outside of Detroit where she won, but Trump also won, which really just represents why she is such an electoral talent for Democrats. But I think there's two things she's going to be hitting on in her speech.

First of all, she has a very unique security background, national security background. She's a former CIA agent. And so she's going to lean heavily into that, we're told, especially given the Oval Office blowup between President Vladimir Zelensky and President Donald Trump. And then she's also expected to outline the economic vision for Democrats and particularly highlight some of the impacts of these doge cuts and Trump policies on workers.

Of course, that is a message that Democrats across the border are hoping to hit over these next few days and months. Absolutely. And I think they'll be listening closely to see if she offers somewhat of a playbook for them as they head into the midterm elections. All right, Mel, thanks so much, Brian.

Let me turn to you now. Let's talk about the dollars and cents of all of this. What could the actual real-world impact, Brian, of these tariffs be when we are talking about items? What prices are you looking at that could potentially go up?

Yeah, well, I think, Kristen, it's wide-ranging because these three countries that we just tariffed as of midnight, China, Mexico, and Canada, are our major top importing partners. So when you talk about Mexico, I think about fruits and vegetables. We import a lot of produce from Mexico, and we import a lot of agricultural products from Canada as well that people might be overlooking. It's not just maple syrup.

Things like, for example, potatoes and grains. You do also have the looming steel and aluminum tariffs next week, which are also a major export from Canada in the United States as well. I want to also point out potash is a product that we import mostly entirely from Canada. That's a major agricultural product that farmers in the United States use to fertilize their soils.

So even for domestic agricultural production, this is a big deal as well. The one industry, though, that is going to be disproportionately impacted by these tariffs is the automotive industry. We bring in so many parts from Mexico. We assemble a lot of these cars in Canada.

Every time it crosses that border, it's going to get tariff. That's the reason why some projections actually have the average price of a car going up by as much as, get this, $12,000. So people that are in the market for a car are likely to feel this impact race in person. That's a lot of money there.

Let's talk about what a 25% tariff actually means. Does it actually translate into a 25% price increase, or how does that work, Brian? Not necessarily. But look, the idea here is that if you are a company in the United States that brings in raw materials or brings in the entire finished good from another country like Mexico or Canada, that's now going to cost you 25% more.

So do you pass on all 25% of that to your customer? It's going to vary depending on what company you're talking about. But look, we've already heard commentary just this morning from the likes of Target CEO Brian Cornell, who told our partners over at CNBC, and I'm reading this for date, those are categories where we'll try to protect pricing, but the consumer will likely see price increases over the next couple of days. That doesn't necessarily imply for a certain 25% all going to the consumer, but Target is saying we're going to have to pass along some of this.

Either way, your price tag will increase. All right, Brian Chong, thank you so much for helping us understand this moment a little bit better. We appreciate it. And we'll have special coverage of President Trump's joint address to Congress tonight starting at 8 p.m.

Eastern. And I'll have special analysis after the speech right here on NBC News Now. Coming up, the latest from Capitol Hill, ahead of the President's primetime speech as Republicans in Congress and how Kyiv and U.S. allies are responding.

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It's more context and clarity from the reporters you trust. Download the NBC News app now and subscribe for more. Welcome back. March is shaping up to be a busy and fraught month for the Republican majorities on Capitol Hill with a government-spending deadline on the horizon and uncertainty over the details of a massive budget resolution.

But the move from top House Republicans right now ahead of President Trump's first joint address to Congress is downright celebratory. Listen. The President's first 43 days in office can be summed up in four words. Promises made, promises kept.

We love to celebrate things. We are celebrating a lot tonight. President Trump is going to be celebrating the renewal of the American dream. Though we will not be ripping up this piece of night, we would like to frame it in bilded gold.

But I'm not sure how to do that from the podium. And joining me now is a lawmaker at the center of everything on Capitol Hill, Missouri Republican congressman and chairman of the Ways and Means Committee, Jason Smith. Chairman Smith, thank you so much for joining me. I really appreciate it.

It's great to be with you. Well, it's great to have you here. And I want to start with the President's address tonight. A recent CBS poll said that 80% say inflation should be a high priority for the President.

No surprise there. But just 29% say he is prioritizing it a lot. As you know, this is one of the big reasons why he was elected. What do you expect to hear from him tonight when it comes to inflation and lowering prices?

Kristen, without a doubt, the two top items that the voters cared about was the economy and also the border. What we will hear tonight, I expect, is the President praising the accomplishments he's had over the last six weeks. For example, $1.6 trillion of new investment that has just been announced. And if you look at the prior administration in the first four years, it was roughly $1 trillion.

You'll also see the deregulation that he's been very instrumental in with his executive orders, but also the big, beautiful bill that he has been pushing, which has the tax cuts, also spending cuts, and border and energy policies. I think those are the main items that he'll be highlighting tonight. And we are going to talk about your strategy for getting that passed, because I know how focused you are on that. But let me ask you about these tariffs against Canada and Mexico and China, the United States' three biggest trading partners.

They took effect today. Those countries are already retaliating with tariffs on U.S. goods. Let me read you something that Senator Rand Paul posted.

He said, quote, tariffs are taxes. And if you tax trade, you'll get less trade and less prosperity. What say you? Do you agree with him?

Well, tariffs are definitely taxes. That's why it's so crucial that we move this one big, beautiful bill as quickly as possible to provide tax relief. One of the incentives that we're going to be pushing within this tax bill is making sure that there's lower tax rates for people who produce their products in the United States. So help offset some of what they're going to be experiencing in some of the tariffs.

But yeah, tariffs are definitely taxes, but that's why we need tax relief moving in this one big, beautiful bill, as the president likes to call it. You saw what happened on Wall Street yesterday and today on the news of these tariffs. You have seen what happens historically, which is that prices do go up. The president himself has said there may be some short-term pain.

Chairman, do you acknowledge that prices on a number of goods will likely go up in the wake of these tariffs? You know, it'll definitely have winners and losers all across the board. What we do know is that if you travel across the country, you see a lot of storefronts that have closed because of unfair trade practices that have happened in years past. And the president is one who believes to make sure that the American worker, the American farmer, the American manufacturer is treated fairly when it comes to trade.

He's very big on the reciprocal trade. I think you'll see that be implemented more after April 1st, which is the study that his first executive order did with a lot of different trade practices with other countries. It's definitely going to be bouncy, but the president wants some substantial change and he wants to make the country wealthy. Very quickly, when you say it's going to be bouncy, does that mean you're somewhat concerned about the fact that prices will likely go up and the impact that could have on Republicans moving forward?

Well, I mean, let's just think about it. Over the last four years, we've already faced a 21% inflation tax that has affected everything you purchase to put food on your table, closing your backs or gasoline in your cars. So we have experienced that type of inflation. What we could also experience is a 22% tax increase if Congress doesn't deliver this one big, beautiful bill, because the president's successful tax cuts from 2017 expire at the end of this year.

And if Congress does not act, you'll face a 22% tax increase. That will affect everyone's paycheck. So, OK, let's talk about what you are talking about, this big, quote, unquote, big, beautiful bill, also known as the budget reconciliation process. We're trying to get this through.

You're the chair of the Ways and Means Committee, as I noted. President Trump has said that he wants this bill to pass, but he's been a little bit light on the details about what he actually wants. Do you expect him to lay out more guidance tonight? I think the president's been very clear, basically, on the campaign trail.

He said he wants to extend the expiring provisions of the 2017 tax cuts. He wants no tax on tips. He wants tax relief for seniors. He wants no tax on overtime.

And he wants tax incentives for products that's produced in the United States. These are things that we will deliver in this one big, beautiful bill. And this is what he's campaigned on over the last couple of years. That's about $9 trillion, though.

Will those tax cuts be offset? I don't know where the $9 trillion money, dollar value comes from. There's a lot of dials whenever you're looking at different tax policy. What we have figured is that a $4.5 trillion calculation that's in the budget resolution can deliver on all of the president's priorities.

So you're looking to offset all of those tax cuts, just to be clear. That's the goal. Well, first off, a big portion of those are current tax policy. And that's still yet to be decided of how the Senate responds to the House budget resolution.

They're pushing the current policy baseline, which is current tax policy. We did it a little bit differently on the House side. And so we don't know exactly what they're going to do over there just yet. Chairman Smith, as you know, President Trump has said repeatedly he doesn't want to cut Medicaid spending.

Your colleague Keith Self said this last week, quote, We cannot get to where we need to go without Medicaid. Medicaid is where a lot of these savings could come from. Do you acknowledge that you may have to make significant changes to Medicaid? The president has been clear that he does not want to cut benefits for people who are on Medicaid.

However, he's open to look at ways to create more efficiencies and also to make sure that illegal immigrants aren't receiving Medicaid. These are the things that the president has spoken up that he's willing to address. But in regards to benefits for people on Medicaid, he's absolutely opposed to it. Well, you know, the challenge is the math because the budget resolution calls for $880 billion in cuts from the House Energy and Commerce Committee.

And anyone who understands that amount of money knows that it's really tough to get there without flashing Medicaid significantly, which would ultimately mean people would lose coverage, wouldn't it? It does not mean that people could lose coverage. When you talk to the chairman of the Energy and Commerce Committee, which I was doing yesterday, it doesn't have to just come from Medicaid. Energy and Commerce covers spectrum, covers multiple areas within energy that can be looked at.

But just requiring re-verification for someone who's on Medicaid more than once a year could have a savings of almost $200 billion. And what we see right now is someone who qualifies for Medicaid, five days later, they may have a pay increase and not qualify, but they're still on the program for the remaining 360 days. Let me ask you about the doge cuts that we are seeing Elon Musk carry out. As you know, some of your Republican colleagues have had some pretty fierce pushback at town halls.

Does that give you any concern? Do you think the Trump administration is moving too fast and too broad? I'll tell you, in my congressional district in southeast Missouri, my constituents are praising the work of doge. They believe government is bloated and it's too big and it needs to be reduced and be efficient.

So I've not been receiving that in our congressional district, but I think most people who I represent, they want a more efficient, effective government that works for them. And yet you are aware that some of your colleagues have faced some pretty heated backlash. In fact, the NRCC Chair Richard Hudson advised Republicans just this morning against doing town halls after some of the scenes that we have seen play out. Is that what you would advise some of your colleagues to cancel town halls?

I would tell my colleagues to do whatever is necessary to reach the majority of their constituents so that they can hear directly from their constituents. But unfortunately, it looks like this is the same practice that's been going on whenever President Trump was in the White House the last time. You saw a lot of groups organize and actually have paid organizations that helped create obstacles to obstruct and to show discontent for the policies that President Trump was pushing forward on. Let me ask you, because there is a big, well, less than two weeks now, the government could potentially shut down.

Are you confident the government is going to stay open? I'm not, because the Democrats that I serve within the House are not wanting to cooperate or negotiate. It looks like the House of Representatives is going to have to pass a continuing funding resolution by ourselves with no help from the Democrats. And let's hope that seven Democrats in the United States Senate will not allow government to shut down.

But right now, the Democrats are not playing ball. They're doing unrelated demands in order to just have a continuing resolution. Chairman, I have to just press you a little bit there, because, of course, Republicans control the White House, the House, and the Senate. Is it not on Republicans' shoulders to keep the government open?

Well, there's this thing called the filibuster in the United States Senate, that in order to pass funding, though, you have to have 60 votes. And there's only 53 Republicans there. So if those seven Democrats will not vote for the filibuster, the Democrats will be shutting down government. If we could pass funding with just 51 votes in the United States Senate, then you're absolutely right, Kristen.

Republicans could keep government funded and open. But unfortunately, because that filibuster rule, as you know as well as I do, the 60 votes, they matter. And if seven Democrats don't join in with 53 Republicans, they will shut down government. All right.

Well, we will have to see what happens. Chairman Smith, thank you so much for joining us. Hope you'll come back soon. It's great to be with Kristen.

You too. Great to have you. Coming up next, the view from Trump voters on the president's first six weeks in office and what they want to hear in tonight's primetime address. We're live in Battleground, Wisconsin.

Leslie Kornacki is at the big board, of course. You're watching the press now. Stay with us. Let's kickstart your wellness journey with the Dr.

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Visit today.com slash Xfinity for full offer terms and details. Welcome back. As we've said, we are expecting tonight that President Trump will tout what he believes are his administration's successes and promises kept to voters. Let's bring in a couple of my NBC News colleagues for a look at how Trump voters are feeling heading into tonight.

Shaquille Brewster is in Waukesha, Wisconsin, one of those crucial battlegrounds within the battleground. And Steve Kornacki is where else? At the big board. Thanks to both of you.

So, Shaq, let's start with you. You have been catching up with some swing voters who backed by in 2020. They then shifted to Trump in 2024. What is the mood among the folks you've been talking to?

I think the word that keeps coming to mind is patience. Zachary Lindsey, we met him actually last year in April as we were on the campaign trail. He voted for Biden in 2020 but said he was embarrassed by that vote. So then he went with Donald Trump back in November.

Listen to what he told me. So it's like the inflation, he doesn't get out of control within like two years, a year. That's on his record. And then everyone else that's running against him can use that against him.

So things got to change. But you got to give time for change because things don't necessarily change in a day. I say a year to two years. And then I'll have a rough assessment of how I really think.

And maybe my vote will change. I just spoke to someone who voted for President Trump just a couple of minutes ago, Ms. Laurie, and she said, I think we need to take a breath a little bit. Let's wait for things to play out.

And that's a sentiment you hear over and over, even as people say they generally support him. But there are specific things they can pinpoint that have them questioning or a little unsettled at this moment. It's so fascinating to hear from the folks who have, quite frankly, been swing voters who decided this last election. Shaq, tell me what the folks you're speaking to are saying about these developments as it relates to the war in Ukraine.

Yeah, this is something that came up organically for a lot of people. I'll tell you, a lot of people knew about that meeting with Zelensky, knew about the back and forth and the argument that you saw in the Oval Office on Friday. I want you to listen to what a guy named Chip told me. Chip, I met last year as well.

He's someone who took some time to vote for Donald Trump and he did back Donald Trump enthusiastically. But he ended up splitting his vote. He voted for a Democrat down ballot. Listen to what he told me about the foreign policy in the war in Ukraine.

I'm concerned about the tariffs that just kicked in today and how it's going to affect me. Now, I've been in different economic situations. I'm willing to suffer a little bit of pain to even out the score. So on that point, he was talking about tariffs and even out the score.

Just because I teased it when he was talking about Ukraine, he said that he was a little bit unsettled with what he saw in the Oval Office. But again, he said this may end up working because you may see some ripple effects from Europe from other places. That's the sentiment you hear from other voters in those conversations I've been having here as well. All right.

Well, great, great interviews there, Shaq. Steve, let me turn to you now. Talk about who President Trump is actually going to be speaking to tonight. Who's going to be listening?

Yeah, let's take a look back here at a coalition that elected Trump last November, why they said they were voting. First of all, one thing to remember, the coalition that Trump won, much more blue-collar in nature than we typically see with Republicans. Look at this. Basically, two-thirds of the folks who voted for Trump last November don't have a four-year college degree or more.

Typically, for Republicans in the past, this has been more like 50 percent. So much more blue-collar that way. How about income? Again, more than 60 percent of Trump voters on the lower side of the income scale you see in the exit polls, under $100,000 in income.

Again, with Republican candidates in the past, it's sort of been the opposite of this is what we've seen. Also, Trump getting some first-time voters from folks who hadn't previously voted Republican before. Again, a different kind of coalition in terms of where they thought the country was. The economy clearly was on their minds.

It's almost unanimous among Trump voters. They said the economy was not good or poor. This is in the exit poll as they voted last November. Strikingly, if you look at the number for Kamala Harris voters, they didn't agree.

It wasn't like this at all. So it really was that sentiment. The economy was in a very bad place, was really concentrated among Trump voters. Then you ask folks about their personal situation.

Again, three out of four Trump voters said that last November things had gotten worse for them over the previous four years. So now, in terms of how they looked at that from a priority standpoint, I thought this was striking. Again, looking back at that exit poll, we asked voters in November, these five areas, which to you is the most important? And two things jump out here.

First of all, among Trump voters, an outright majority, 51% said it was the economy. You know, a lot of attention to immigration. That number was 30 points lower among Trump voters than the economy. Abortion, foreign policy, state of democracy.

And also, look at how different that number is from the number for Kamala Harris and the Democrats. Only 12%, barely one in ten of Kamala Harris voters, said the economy was the most important issue. So sentiments that the economy was in a bad place, that their personal situation, personal economic situation was in a worse place, and that the economy was the highest priority, you really, really saw that specifically among Republican voters, specifically among Trump voters. And just then, in terms of what voters were expecting, those voters were expecting for Trump, you could just see it here, it was, they liked the idea of change.

I think what's the most important thing you could bring? It was change, and it was leadership. More than eight in ten Trump voters cited those two attributes, more than compassion, more than empathy, more than personal judgment. They wanted big change and strong leadership, they were saying.

Boy, are those numbers stark, Steve, and certainly do make the point. We are about six weeks into the second Trump administration. What is the mood of the American people heading into tonight, Steve? Yes, I mean, a couple of ways we could measure this, but so many polls out there recently.

Overall, if you average them all together, this is what Donald Trump's approval rating looks like coming into this speech. 47 approved, 49 disapproved. Historically, obviously, that's not a great number for a president, especially early on, but that's sort of the level that the area that Trump's been operating in during his first term, and we're starting to see it again now. In fact, in his first term, this would have been high for him in his first term, but again, it's not like he's breaking significant new ground here.

Maybe there's an opportunity for him tonight to move those numbers a bit. If you ask specifically about the economy again, the numbers in his job approval right now look basically the same as his overall approval, though it is worth noting in his first term, Kristen, this question, his handling of the economy, was generally the biggest bright spot for Trump in polling. More people approved than disapproved in his first term. So far, not quite the case here in the second term.

All right, well, we'll watch that number because we know that's going to be critical to how the American public views it moving forward. Steve Kronacki, as always, thank you so much. Great to see you. After the break, President Zelensky's peace offering to the Ukrainian president expresses gratitude to President Trump and says he's ready to sign a minerals deal after last week's disastrous Oval Office meeting.

Stay with us. You're watching The Press now. Welcome back. The Trump administration continues to ramp up pressure on Ukraine following the dramatic clash between President Trump and President Zelensky in the Oval Office last week.

In his latest move, President Trump ordered a pause on U.S. military aid to Ukraine. According to two U.S. officials, some Republican lawmakers were quick to criticize the decision.

I do not think we should be pausing our efforts. It's the Ukrainians who are shedding blood. But it is Putin who launched an unprovoked and unjustified attack on a free, democratic, and sovereign country. And I am not backing off my support for Ukraine.

The policy can't go wrong because the only person that benefits is Putin. Look, if I am Putin, I'm loving a pause. I'm flushing off troops at the border. I'm trying to get more drones from Iran.

I'm trying to get more crap from North Korea. I'm getting the illicit money coming from China. And I'm loving a pause. And I'm loving a cessation of a resupply to Ukraine.

Meanwhile, this morning, President Zelensky took to social media to reiterate his commitment to peace, saying he's ready to work with President Trump towards that goal, and went on to call his meeting at the White House, quote, regrettable. Joining me now is Evelyn Farkas, executive director of the McCain Institute and former deputy assistant secretary of defense for Russia, Ukraine, and Eurasia. Thank you so much for joining us. We really appreciate it.

Thank you, Kristen. It's my pleasure. Well, it's great to have you here. Let's start with this extraordinary standoff right now between the United States and Ukraine.

What are the implications of the U.S. causing military aid? Yeah, I mean, it doesn't look good. Obviously, we're putting pressure on the Ukrainians.

And this is, you know, flesh and blood kind of pressure, although not in the immediate term, because, of course, there's a lot in the pipeline that the Ukrainians have received from the prior administration and from the Trump administration so far. But it's not a good sign because, again, it's additional pressure being very publicly and overtly placed on Ukraine, which is the victim, not the aggressor. And we don't see a similar pressure being put on Putin and the Kremlin. How much longer do you think that Ukraine can actually stay in this fight without more military support from the U.S.?

Right. I mean, Kristen, it's hard to say. The experts say that they have enough ammunition. to support the weapons that we've given them for another six months.

The real question, of course, is the air defense. The civilians, can they be protected because the Patriot missiles that are required for the Patriot batteries we gave them, they will eventually run out. We really don't want to see more pictures of civilians being killed in maternity wards, et cetera. But at a certain point, yes, Ukraine will run out of weaponry.

They will keep fighting as long as they have to, but it's in their interest also, obviously, to make a peace. And Evelyn, how does this relationship get back on track? Because President Zelensky did send out that post today. Clearly, he wants to come back to the table and get that minerals deal signed, which would essentially create a long-term economic partnership between the U.S.

and Ukraine. How does this get fixed? Yeah, I mean, Kristen, it looks like that minerals deal was always going to be step one. So he said, OK, I'll go ahead and find it.

He started, though, to articulate what he considers part of step two. You know, if there's a ceasefire, then he wants to make sure there's a prisoner exchange, that the Russians don't stop firing at their energy grid and at their civilians. So he's very clear about the conditions for the next step as well. And he's always looking one step ahead and, of course, trying to get Russia and the United States to commit publicly to those next steps, because otherwise he's left with an agreement, but no guarantee of security and no guarantee of an end to the war.

Yeah, and those security guarantees are so critical, President Zelensky repeatedly making that point. I want to play you something that Vice President Vance said today while he was on Capitol Hill. Take a listen. We think the Ukrainian troops have fought very bravely, but we're at a point here where neither Europe nor the United States nor the Ukrainians can continue this war indefinitely.

So it's important that everybody comes to the table and the president is trying to send a very explicit message. The Ukrainians have got to come to the table and start negotiating with President Trump. Evelyn, it kind of speaks to the point that you were initially making, which is that the Ukrainians seem to be facing at least publicly more pressure than the Russians. What do you make of that and what's the potential impact of that?

Yeah, it's really problematic, Kristen, because if you want peace, the Russians have to also compromise. I mean, the Ukrainians have said, at least behind closed doors, I'm guessing, they said they're willing to make some compromises on territory. anything publicly about what Russia is being asked to give in exchange or what the Kremlin is willing to compromise on. And finally, what are you going to be watching for tonight?

What do you hope to hear from President Trump as it relates to this issue? Well, Kristen, because he's made so many odd and untrue statements about Ukraine and Russia, I'd love it if he just talked about what the war was about, the fact that Russia launched a war of aggression against Ukraine, that the war needs to be brought to an end, and that the aggressor can't be rewarded outright, that there has to be a compromise. I mean, those are kind of the fundamental, basic things I'd like him to say. All right.

Evelyn Farfis, thank you so much for joining us, giving us your perspective. We really appreciate it. Thank you, Kristen. Always great to see you.

Still to come, the President's primetime address and the Democrats' response. More on what to expect tonight. The panel's next. You're watching the Press Now.

Welcome back. We are just a few hours now from the start of President Trump's address to Congress. As we've said, it's a high stakes night as the President is expected to tout actions taken by his administration from the rapid slashing of the federal workforce to new terrorists on America's top trading partners and the drastic shift in U.S. foreign policy after his heated confrontation with President Zelensky in the Oval Office last week.

Joining me now is my panel, Mariana Sotomayor, congressional reporter at The Washington Post, Cornell Belcher, Democratic strategist and an NBC News political analyst, and Matt Gorman, former senior communications advisor for the Tim Scott presidential campaign. Thanks to all of you for being here. Mariana, kick us off because President Trump is preparing to deliver this address against the backdrop of having just imposed these tariffs. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau came out and announced countermeasures, as did China, as did Mexico, retaliatory tariffs, I should say.

What are you going to be watching for tonight? I mean, so many dynamics. You just look at some of them. Let's not forget the meeting that happened on Friday with Zelensky, right?

He's going to talk about foreign affairs, both in the form of tariffs and in terms of the wars abroad. I mean, there's just a number of things. This is border security, right? This is an address to Congress, a Republican Congress for the first time in many years that is really trying to pass a number of Trump's legislative priorities.

So many things on border security, so many things on reductions to the federal government. Does he give any specific instructions on those fronts? Energy reforms, taxes. These are all a number of things that I've heard Republicans hope Trump gives a little bit more direction, especially as they start to get into that sausage-making, that legislation, negotiation on all of those fronts.

Yeah, and his messaging as it relates to not just trying to argue for his, quote-unquote, big, beautiful bill that he's hoping to get passed, but on these tariffs. I mean, look at the stock market. It closed down today. Not necessarily the optics that he was hoping for going into his first joint address.

No, and I'm very acutely watching how much pain the White House can take in hand. And also from members who will be in that chamber. Also, I have a feeling there will be something that he will pull out. As we know, he loves the actresses.

He loves it for TV moments, this sort of thing. Is there something he talks about with this? Because, look, they are very aware about the need to address inflation, need to address prices. It's not, you know, the only thing they want to know, but they recognize it's important, absolutely.

And I think also, to Mariana's point, one of the thamatics, right? During the inaugural, they're very good thamatic about the return of common sense. They have a lot of actions over the last six weeks. How do they tie all together to a central theme?

That's what I'm watching for in that, too. Cornell, I mean, Matt makes a good point, which is that I'm told also there are going to be a lot of made-for-TV moments. Some surprises. Of course there's going to be made-for-TV moments.

There's going to be some surprises as well. Matt said what he's going to be watching for. What are you going to be watching for? Well, look, I've got to say that if I were Republicans, I'd be a little bit panicked, right?

And if you look at, you know, picking up what the conversation with Steve, right, so much of it was baked in for the economy on him. But if you look at the economic numbers right now, they're all pointing in the wrong direction. 64% say the cost of living is headed in the wrong direction, right? You see his approval on the economy, something that was once a straight, is now underwater.

You see his overall approval now underwater. And you know this. We've been around this for a long time, so I do. Usually the president gets a honeymoon, right?

He's already underwater. And look, the headline from Bloomberg just a couple of minutes ago, It's only a matter of time before the economy starts slashing 2025 growth forecasts as the recession grows. It's the economy, stupid. And right now, it's not moving in the right direction.

Matt, your response to that? And is the honeymoon over? I guess the economy was doing one last year according to Democrats, and the president changed. That's something that was terrible.

Well, he did say he was going to lower prices on day one. Yeah, no, exactly. That was a classic Trump hyperbole. That's giving us fits.

Look, I think a couple of things. I get your point on all of that. I think they understand where this is. And I think members are going to be pushing back a little bit on this.

What you've seen with town halls, the tariffs, there's spooked a little bit. And I think it's important for the Trump White House, and as well, leaders in Congress are kind of trying to tamp that down a little bit to play their fears. I would think it's in 2018. This member relations party is a huge part of that because that's a canary in the coal mine in so many ways.

Yeah, if I can actually add to that. Now, you're seeing that in real time. You're seeing Speaker Mike Johnson essentially invite Elon Musk, telling him, hey, please come and talk to the House Republicans who genuinely do not know what cuts they're making, how much they cost. We're trying to fund the government here.

How do we fund it not knowing what we're funding? There's a lot of questions that Republicans have. When it comes to the tariffs, when it comes to the stock market in recent days, they're saying, we should practice some patience. But I'm also not naive.

If this lasts way too long, constituents are going to feel this. Businesses are going to feel that. How do we prepare for something like that? Let's be clear.

Again, I'm going to say on message. It's the economy stupid, right? It's the price of A's, right? What the heck have they done to lower the price of A's?

You know, attacking diversity and equity has not lowered the price of A's, right? Slashing federal jobs has not lowered the price of A's. They're missing the big picture on what the electorate was talking about in the last election. President Trump has taken, really, I think, a record number of executive actions.

And yet, that one aspect, the economy, prices, just remains immovable right now. How long do you think voters will give them? Let's face it, there's been a lot of talk about what he's done in the last six weeks. But this term, for better or worse, will rely on what this passed through Congress.

That's the most lasting thing. It can't be over the second order, right? So that is where you're going to get the meat and potatoes, no pun intended, of this term will be what he does on energy, immigration, tax, all of this, as you said, beautiful bill. And I think that is where you'll see a lot of that come to play.

And it'll be lasting, for better or worse. Let's talk about the Democratic response. There are going to be a lot of eyes on Senator Slotkin, just elected in the great state of Michigan, a state that Vice President Kamala Harris lost. She was one of the bright spots of 2024 for Democrats.

And what's notable, Mariana, is the Democrats right now are lost when it comes to their messaging and how to take on Trump. What do you anticipate we will hear from Senator Slotkin? And could it be a roadmap moving forward? I think so.

I mean, she is a pretty important pick. She is someone who, I think if you were to talk to her and talk to some of the women, more moderate women of the 2018 class, we saw a huge swing of Democrats, House Democrats, take over the majority. These were the kind of women who time and time and time again were saying, hey, we need to listen and talk to our constituents. Hey, my constituents are saying this.

We shouldn't be saying defund the police, defund ICE, things like that. So, I mean, she's the kind of person who I think is going to try and bring a different perspective. Will the Democrats, listen, that is the question, but at least they're putting her front and center. Oh, I'm sorry.

She's the first one to say, don't run again, Joe Biden, too. Yes, yes. That's a really great point. Cornell, I mean, this is a tough assignment.

Give them a response. Everything from the backdrop, you don't get a big backdrop. I mean, what makes this so difficult historically? Like, rather than say, can we remember any of the positives of, you know, we can remember the ones that went wrong.

So let's say, let's not screw this up. But at the same time, at least for a little while, look, I think it is an honor for her to get any sort of freshman member would want to get this. And look, I think she has an opportunity to sort of raise her national profile, raise her brand. But I also don't buy into, and I know we spend a lot of time talking about, oh, what's the magical message, right?

There's no dog-long magical message. Look, I went to work for a guy by the name of Howard Dean in 2005 when George Bush had just had a sweeping election, and your friend Carl Rowe was talking about permanent reform. What you know what we did? We didn't focus on some magical message bullet.

We focused on building the party and expanding the electorate and 50-state strategy. That's what Democrats need to be more focused on. There's no magical couple of words. That's the thing.

You're not going to get that. You're not. It's hard work. Thank you for a great conversation.

We will all be watching. Ariana, Cornell, and Matt. Thank you so much. We're back tomorrow with more of the press now, and of course, we'll have live coverage of the president's address tonight.

The news continues with Hallie Jackson right now. I'm Craig Melton. Cheers. Cheers.

I've always been a glass half-hole kind of guy, and now I'm talking to some people who look at the world that way, too. Some really fascinating folks who share their defining moments, their triumphs, their challenges. Their stories are funny, and I can't do it, so I hope you'll join me each week. And who knows, you might just come away with your own glass half-hole.

Search Glass Half-hole with Craig Melton from today on YouTube and wherever you get your podcasts.