Meet the Press NOW — March 5

I voted for Donald J. Trump because our country's a mess. I was in much better shape four years ago. Why don't you know, I'm a little tired of Trump's growing.

What was top of mind for you when you were voting today? Voting for Donald Trump. Yeah. Voting for Joe Biden.

Yes. I don't want Trump to be president. I think that if he is president, we lose our democracy. I'm not Biden's biggest fan by any means, but in my opinion, many things better than Trump.

Welcome to Meet the Press. Now, I'm Kristen Welker at NBC News election headquarters in New York with our three favorite words. Voters are voting. It's Super Tuesday, the biggest night of the presidential primary calendar with Republican contests in 15 states and dozens of key down ballot races all across the country, millions of voters are voting.

In fact, the first polls close in just a few hours. So let's dig right in. Tonight. There are 865 delegates at stake across those 15 Republican contests from Maine to Alaska.

Donald Trump enters the night with 276 committed delegates to Nikki Haley's 43. Now, the former president says he is begging on a big night to effectively close out the race so he can focus on the general election. Well, my focus is really, at this point, it's on Biden. We should win almost every state today.

I think every state last night, as you know, we won with 87% of the vote. We won North Dakota, great state with a great governor, by the way. But we, we really look at it Biden. Now, big storyline tonight will be the margins as the Trump campaign tries to figure out where he's the strongest and the weakest among Republican voters heading into November.

As Ricky Haley tonight is, simply put, do or die, she is going to have to substantially overperform expectations to get back in this race because several state Republican parties have made their races winner take all to maximize the delegate hall of the front runner. Haley will be watching returns from her home state of South Carolina after giving no indication she's ready to get out of the race. If I were to get out of the race, it would still be the longest presidential general election in history. I don't know why everybody's so adamant that they have to follow Trump's lead to get me out of this race.

You know, all of these people deserve to vote. Sixteen states want to have their voices heard. Let's let their voices get hurt. As much as everybody wants to go and push me out, I'm not ready to get out yet.

I'M still sitting there fighting for the people that want a voice and they deserve that. Well, beyond the presidential primaries, we're also following a wide open and wild Senate primary in California featuring three Democratic members of Congress and a Republican former all star baseball player. And we'll be watching primary contests in North Carolina on both sides of the aisle that will determine the matchup in what is expected to be the marquee governor's race this November. RNC News team has fanned out all across the country and all the major contests, talking to voters, talking to the campaign.

So let's get right to the campaign trail. Ali Vitali is in South Carolina, where Nikki Haley is taking in tonight's returns. Garrett Hake is in Florida, where Donald Trump is hosting a Super Tuesday watch party. Gary Grumbach is in Virginia, where he's been driving across the state all day, checking in at different polling places.

And Jack Brewster is in North Carolina, where we're watching the presidential primary and some other key races. Ally, I have to start with you. And the biggest question of Super Tuesday is this Nikki Haley's last stand. Take us inside her campaign.

What are they saying heading into tonight? Well, Kristen, your interview this weekend with Haley was actually really instructive because once again, she moved the goalposts in a subtle way that only those of us who hang on every word on these questions would actually notice. When she was asked by you if she would stay in this race past Super Tuesday, she said she would stay in this race for as long as she's competitive. Now, all of us have gotten to know the Haley campaign at this point the way that they are very loathe to set specific metrics or expectations for themselves on election nights.

They've only used words like competitive or showing an upward trajectory in terms of demanding how they're going to how they're going to stay in the race going forward. I think that's striking, especially as we consider what's next for Haley. And one of the questions I asked voters in Texas, where she held her last public event last night, and I say last because there are no more public events on the schedule. We don't even expect to see Nikki Haley this evening.

I'm told she's gonna be taking the results here in the Charleston area. But what I asked voters was, hey, what happened if, what happens if Haley drops out? And B, what happens if she endorses Trump Watch she were to drop out, Would you be disappointed if she endorsed Trump? Yes.

How would you? I got no clues. You know, nobody's perfect. Certainly not Mr.

Trump. And so I make up my mind about who is going to take care of her our country best. I don't know yet. Even those voters there who said that they were either open to Trump or would stick with Trump in a general election, even they were critical of him.

And look, they were at Nikki Haley event on the night before Super Tuesday. So instructive. You learn the most, talk to those voters, I'll tell you that. Great interviews, Ali.

Tell me about the math and the map. What races and what states does the Haley campaign feel most confident that they can potentially pick up? I know they're eyeing states like Vermont, Massachusetts, Vermont, Massachusetts, even places like Virginia. I think about anywhere on this map a where the winner take all thresholds are a little bit lower.

But then also the places where there's open primaries, places where Democrats can effectively dabble in the Republican primary race. I know Gary, for example, is in Virginia. I heard from one elected official there who said, hey, I'm seeing some weird things in my text messages because people who don't often vote in primaries and people who are Democrats are saying I need to get out and I need to vote for Nikki Haley as a chance to blunt Donald Trump from being on the ballot. We will ultimately see if those are the kinds of people that came out in the numbers that Haley needs in order to make a strong showing in states like these.

But as much as voter conversations are instructive and certainly Super Tuesday results are going to be that too, we're also looking ahead. Sarah Dean, our Haley campaign and Ben and I hauling around to some of the folks on the ground in Georgia who have endorsed Haley's campaign. They tell us there are no plans for any events there that's instructed in and itself doesn't mean it can't change. But it also means at this point there's no plans for her to physically get on the ground in the next day to vote either.

Yeah, you and I do a lot of tea leaf reading at this point in any race ally and that certainly is a big one. We have been all over it. Phenomenal job and great interviews with the voters there. Ali Talley, thank you so much.

I want to turn now to Garrett. Hey Garrett, how is the Trump campaign feeling heading to tonight? Kristen? I just interviewed a senior advisor, Dallas Trump's campaign, who expressed nothing but confidence about tonight and the expectation that they will sweep every state on the board for Republican voters tonight.

Now, Trump campaign understands that they cannot win the nomination outright tonight. They think that'll probably take until March 19, two more sets of primaries to get over the threshold to become the presented nominee in terms of delegates. And they're basically waiting to see when Nikki Haley will see the writing on the wall that they believe she has absolutely no mathematical path to victory. I asked about a worst case scenario and was told there is no worst case scenario because she cannot come back to be the nominee.

So it's really just a question of when, not if, from their perspective. After that, it's really a question of what I want to do in the general election. What does that campaign look like? The word for this senior advisor of the Trump campaign is it looks basically exactly like what we're seeing right now.

They believe the formula that they have put together, including the focus on Donald Trump's legal exposure, the criminal case against him, is a formula that will continue to work for them in the general election. And they believe even the publicly available data backs it up. All of the polls we saw over the last several days showing Donald Trump leading Joe Biden, yes, within the margin of error, but leading him across the country. They believe in the potency of the immigration issue.

And they believe that there's very little that Biden or anyone else can do kind of turn that around Donald Trump. So what you're seeing right now is a campaign that is trying to remain disciplined, as they have been right now mostly focused on Joe Biden, not terribly dragged down by Nikki Haley and starting to try to scale up and build out to exist in a general election. I think the key thing to watch, according to this advisor, is going to be can they raise the money that they will need to be competitive in the courtroom, on the ballots across the country with the expectation they'll be facing a billion dollar money machine from President Biden's campaign and from affiliated super PACs. Those are the conversations and the decisions being made at Mar a Lago over my shoulder, even today as they start to think about what life looks like after Super Tuesday and after this primaries in the rearview mirror.

Preston. All right, Garrett Hake, thank you so much. Let's turn out Gary Grumbach. Gary, you have been driving all over the Commonwealth of Virginia today.

Still in the car, still on the road. It's of course, the state that's gone Democratic in lasting presidential races. Nikki Haley has been making her p to voters in Virginia. What are you hearing when you talk to voters?

So we've been all over Kirchheim, right? We started down north of Richmond and Henrico County. We moved up to Spasmania County, a more Republican area. And now we're headed into Fairfax county, which is a suburb of Washington, D.C.

pretty heavily Democratic. What we're hearing in all three places is the importance of this open primary system for somebody like Nikki Haley because you don't have to be registered Republican to vote in the Republican primary. So you're seeing a lot of happiness with the Democratic Party, a lot of happiness with Joe Biden. And you're seeing these Democrats, they're talking to us, telling us they are now supporting somebody like Nikki Haley because it is perhaps not a pro Nikki Haley vote, but an anti Donald Trump vote.

Here's what some voters we talked to had to say. Hell yeah. Hell yeah. And I would vote for him again.

Absolutely. If a Democrat candidate comes along who has better policy and better ideas, I would vote for him. Okay? Absolutely.

I felt would be a throwaway vote to vote Mr. Biden. I will be thinking obviously quite seriously in November what to do. I would have hoped that my party, the Democratic Party would have found someone with, with energy and integrity to go forward with this country.

Now we have seen Al Shrump here in Richmond, Virginia over the weekend. We saw in Haley in Arlington and Fairfax county over the weekend. What we haven't seen are the surrogates and the real ga, the vote campaign that existed just last year in the 2023 statewide elections in Virginia fleeing, not getting in. The Republican Party had this massive, well funded get out the vote campaign called security Vote that is nowhere to be found this time around.

Person fascinating stuff and you're absolutely right. I caught up with Nikki Haley at one of her events there in Virginia and she certainly is making a strong push there. Gary Brownbach, great interviews with those voters. Really appreciate it, appreciate your reporting.

Let's turn out to Shaq Brewster who is in North Carolina. And Shaq, North Carolina is such an important state because it's going to tell us a lot about the general election as well. It of course is a true battleground. It's going to be a hard fought race in the general.

Trump won it in 2020. President Biden wants to win it back, particularly given that he's showing signs of weakness in the other key battlegrounds that he was able to win in 2020. What do you hear from voters? Well, when you look at the presidential level, especially on the Republican side of this person, one thing that you do see and hear is that voters understand the uphill battle that Nikki Haley is facing in this race.

For some of them, that's what driving them out to the polls. And what's important about that is North Carolina is a state in which Nikki accumulate some delegates, even if she still loses even by a large margin, as long as she hits that 20 delegate threshold. I want you to listen to what some voters have been telling me today as they've been heading out of the polls at the presidential level. Who did you vote for?

Nikki Haley. Why Nikki Haley? I think she's a real fighter. And you know, I voted for Trump before.

I think he did a lot of good things. His personality just rubs me the wrong way and I think it's been really a good to her. John, who did you support for the presidential primary? Donald Trump.

He, you know where he stands. He backs up what he says. And the thing is, on paper, North Carolina looks like an opportunity for Nikki Haley, at least could be under normal circumstances. She was the former governor of a neighboring state.

It's the state with a Democratic governor. So, you know, there are at least crossover voters or more moderate voters here. The question is whether or not those voters show up and if they show out for Nikki Haley tonight. Yeah, you're absolutely right.

Shock. She has to show signs of strength in states like North Carolina, Vermont, Virginia, these states that we're talking about in order to make a real case to her supporters and her donors. Most importantly. Shock.

Before I let you go, obviously there's a hotly contested gubernatorial race. Tell me what you can about that and what's the state of play? Yeah, this is a big thing looking ahead to the general election because in November, North Carolina is expected to have one of the most competitive gubernatorial races in the country. So today is when each party is deciding which candidate they want to put up the front runner.

On the Democratic side, you're looking at him on the left side of the screen, Josh Stein. He has endorsement of the term limited popular Democratic governor. On the Republican side, Republicans seek an opportunity because they haven't had control of the governor's mansion here since 2016. Donald Trump has put his thumb on the scale, so to speak, and endorse the lieutenant governor, Mark Robinson.

The problem with him, he's outspoken and very critical. So there's open question if he's the best general election candidate. And of course, when President Trump was praising him just over the weekend. Shaq Brewster, great reporting from the ground in North Carolina.

Thank you so much for being there for us. We will see you later for tonight's special coverage. Coming up, breaking news from Capitol Hill where Senator Kirsten Cinema of Battleground Arizona has announced she will not be seeking re election. Shaking up another competitive race in November.

We'll have the very latest there. But up next, a supersized moment for President Biden with his State of the Union address in just two days and his re election campaign struggling in the polls. A member of the Biden campaign's advisory board joins us next. They'll go anywhere.

This is Super Tuesday. Stay with us. Welcome back. It's not just Republicans casting ballots today.

Democratic primary voters are heading to the polls in 15 states, plus American Samoa. President Biden isn't expected to face much resistance and reach the nomination. But right now the Biden campaign knows it has a lot of work to do heading into November to shore up key constituencies and Democratic groups. Speaking of which, in a radio interview that aired in Dallas, Texas this morning, the president tried to tout his administration's efforts to help one of those key constituencies, African American communities.

He also laid out what he believe is at stake in this election. Take a listen. So much at stake. Democracy, free and economic opportunity.

Think of the alternative, folks. If we lose this election, you're going to be back with Donald Trump. And Donald Trump, I've not died. Anyway, what he talked about, the way he acted, the way he dealt with African American, I think it's been shameful.

Joining now is Democratic congressman from California and member of the Biden campaign advisory board, Avi Berra. Thank you so much for joining me. Really appreciate it. Thanks for having me on person.

Let's talk about the state of play heading into Super Tuesday. The latest polls show President Biden trailing former President Trump within the margin of era. If we start to pivot towards the general election, do you think that the Biden campaign, that his team is showing enough urgency in the face of these polls and frankly, other discontent that we're hearing from voters? I really do.

I know we're starting to put together the campaign team building up infrastructure in those triple states. And you know, it's March and the election's not until November, but you're building that infrastructure and they'll make the case. You know, when it comes down to an election, that's really a binary choice between a president who ended the pandemic, has helped us have the strongest economy in the world and is holding this world together with a war in Europe, trying to end a war in the Middle east and trying to end war in Asia. Yeah, the president's going to run on his track record and I think we will cross that finish line.

Let me ask you about some of the numbers, more specifically the latest New York Times Siena College poll shows that 61% of Biden voters feel like the president is too old to be an effective leader. What do you make of those types of numbers? And do you think the president's doing enough to dispel those concerns? Is he out front enough, in other words?

Well, I think you will see a lot more of the president right now. This is the hardest job in the world. You've got a war in Europe where you're trying to defeat Vladimir Putin, you're trying to contain a conflict in the Middle east, and then you're trying to prevent a war in Asia. And that all falls on the president and his team flaps.

So he's incredibly busy. But again, as you start to see the president out there on the campaign drill, talking to the voters, all of us out there, I think people will understand what we've accomplished in these last three years. Let me ask you about some of the last election results. Michigan obviously had a very coordinated uncommitted vote.

They are going to send two delegates to the convention tonight. Uncommitted is on the ballot in seven states. It's my understanding it's not quite as organized in effort as we saw in Michigan. Still, how do you view this?

Do you think this is a warning sign? And what are you going to be watching for? Well, certainly what we're seeing in the Middle east and Gaza is tragic with folks that are lacking food, water, the humanitarian crisis unfolding again. The president's working overtime, I think.

You know, the vice president made the case yesterday that let's get a temporary ceasefire to open up negotiations, get needed supplies in there. And again, hopefully we can speak to the constituents that are upset about what they're seeing in the Middle east and bring those constituents back. Speaking of the vice President, NBC News has new reporting that officials at the National Security Council actually toned down Vice President Harris's language for her speech in Selma where she called for an immediate six week ceasefire. What do you make of that?

Was that a mistake? Would you like to heard that? More fiery, forceful language. Look, I know all of us, especially the administration's working hard to get, you know, a four, five, six week ceasefire so you can get necessary food, medications, water in there to avert this humanitarian crisis.

And then hopefully you can negotiate a much longer peace and ceasefire. Again, I think the vice president said what a lot of us feel. Let's find a way to make sure the Israeli people feel secure, but let's also avert this pending meditation crisis in thousands. Do you wish that the language in her speech hadn't been toned down.

You know, I'm not going to speculate on what happened with the nsc, but I thought she gave a pretty powerful speech and it was right, what a lot of us are thinking. Speaking of speeches, let's talk about the big one coming up on Thursday night, the State of the Union address. It's our understanding that President Biden is going to frame this as a choice. Whose side are you on?

He is expected to say, what does President B need to do in order to have an effective night on Thursday night? What do you want to hear from him? You know, this election really is a choice of two different visions of America. Joe Biden's vision.

You know, he served this country admirably as a senator, as vice president. Now as president, he's going to lay out that case. And then the alternative is Donald Trump in the chaos, havoc that his administration wreaked when he was president. So I think he will lay out that case.

He will speak directly to the American people. I think we'll lay out the case, hopefully for what a second Biden term looks like. And again, elections are about choices and he has a clear vision of what he's accomplished and where we want to go. We haven't finished the job yet.

Before I let you go, let me ask you about the Senate seat in your home state. You have endorsed Congressman Adam Schiff. As you know, he has come under some scrutiny for apparently trying to boost the Republican candidate, Steve Garvey. Are you comfortable with that tactic?

You know, I'm comfortable. You know, Adam Schiff is his friend. Katie Porter's a friend, Barbara, Lisa's friend. They're all would be very good senators.

Again, I endorse Adam because I think at this moment in time with the national security situation. He's former chair of the Intelligence Committee. I think he would be a great senator for the state of California and a great servant for this great nation. Do you have any concerns about him boosting Steve Garvey, though?

Do you agree with that tactic or do you think that that goes too far? You know, it's all about winning elections. And, you know, I think Adam is running a very strong race. He's raised a lot of resources.

He was out in Sacramento this past weekend that campaigning he's been up and down the state. I don't think he had to do that. But again, I think he'll be fine. All right.

Congressman Barra, thank you so much for your time on this Super Tuesday. Really appreciate it. Good to see you. Thanks.

You, too. We want to Turn now to some breaking news from Capitol Hill and a major shakeup in a key battleground Senate race. Arizona Senator Kirsten Sinema, an independent who caucuses with the Democrats, just announced a short time ago that she is not running for reelection in a blistering video blaming the current toxic political environment. NBC News congressional correspondent Julie Circan joins me now.

She has interviewed the senator not too long ago when she was trying to get a deal done on border security. Julie, talk about this. How much of a surprise was Senator Cinema's announcement today? Well, certainly was a surprise to those in the building, but not really much of a surprise to those of us who've been covering her, especially in her efforts, the latest effort to secure that bipartisan border bill.

You know, Kristen, as you mentioned, we've interviewed her. We've been outside of the room watching her craft this deal. I've heard from sources in the last few weeks after that bill failed to advance in the Senate that that was something that she really was going to use as booster, as a launching point perhaps to make this decision to seek re election in a state where her support among Democrats, among the state Democratic Party has certainly waned after she protected the filibuster. She supported many bipartisan efforts, many to the contrary of what Democrats wanted her home state.

Here's what she said in a video today that she posted on social media announcing why she's chosen to step down after two decades in politics. Watch this. The only political victories that matter these days are symbolic, attacking your comments on cable news or social media. Compromise is a dirty word.

We've arrived at that crossroad and we chose anger and division. I believe in my approach, but it's not what America wants right now. And certainly she has credited her work across the aisle, credited Republicans that she worked with. And also I should know, she was the first Democrat in generation to win that Tennessee in Arizona, of course, before becoming independent last year.

Yeah, really significant shakeup. So, Julie, how does this impact the Senate race that's underway in Arizona? Well, it impacts it in a very big way. In fact, you already saw out of the gate, Leader Schumer had announced his endorsement of Ruben Gallego.

He's a congressman in Arizona representing Phoenix area who is now vying for reelection to be that Democratic senator who takes over cinema spot. I also just spoke to Carrie Lake who's on Capitol Hill trying to drum up support, trying to get those seal those endorsements. Rather, she's here for a donor event tomorrow. She has some kind words for cinema.

But also I have some church words for her opponents for Biden and those the like. So certainly this will be an interesting Senate race to watch. Carrie Lake has changed her tune and she's told me she's expecting some high profile endorsements in the coming days. Christine.

All right. Great reporting. Julie Serkin, thank you so much as always. Appreciate it.

Great to see you. Coming up after the break, we are on the ground in Alabama where voters are voting for the first time since the state Supreme Court's controversial ruling on frozen embryos and ivf. You're watching the press now. Welcome back to rain.

NOW to Alabama where we're watching for some down ballot drama. Primary day comes as we continue to track the fallout from last month's state Supreme Court ruling that frozen embryos are children. Now, the decision has thrown IVF access in the state into question and created a political headache for Republicans nationwide on the issue of reproductive rights. Today, five of the nine seats on the Supreme Court are on the ballot, including the spot of chief justice.

Also shaking things up, an overhauled congressional map thanks to a U.S. supreme Court ruling late last year. Joining me now is NBC's Dasha Burns in Montgomery, Alabama. Dasha, good to see you.

Thanks for being here. So Trump is expected to dominate the presidential primary tonight there in Alabama. But how has that recent Supreme Court ruling impacted things, if at all? What are voters telling you?

Well, look, it has certainly thrown the spotlight on just how much power state supreme courts do have and how important it is to vote for them. Given today, five of the nine state Supreme Court seats are on the ballot, Kristen. And this is top of mind for folks. Look, IVF is overwhelmingly popular for Democrats and Republicans.

But I'll tell you, this is a deep red state with deeply religious voters. And people have been kind of crossing up on this issue. Take a listen. Do you believe people should have access to that?

Oh, yeah. Yeah, absolutely. I have friends that have their children by that process. I'm very protective of being rails.

So, okay, so the ruling of embryos are children something that you agree with? Yeah, I think women or family should have control of their lives and their bodies, women in particular. I think a lot of people making those decisions have not considered the whole realm of why people want to go through all of that expense heartache to have children. Here's the thing, Kristen.

What I'm learning from the folks I've been talking to, though, is that there isn't a very clear connection for a lot of voters between that Supreme Court ruling saying embryos are children and the impact on IVF in the state. So there might be people that say everyone into today, they'll say, I agree with what the Supreme Court did. I do think of conception embryos are children, but who also support ivf. And so for Democrats, especially, who are trying to use the issue of reproductive freedom for rallying voters, they really are going to have to do some work to make sure that voters are understanding how all of these things connect because this issue is not super straightforward on space for us to.

Yeah, it is incredibly complicated. Thanks for helping us understand where everyone stands today. Joshua Burns, thank you so much. Really appreciate it.

Coming out what to watch for tonight and how to watch for it. Chuck Todd maps out the big night ahead from the big board. And as we head to break, we have a live look at the democratic process at work in Montley over Vermont as voters pass their ballots in this election cycle's most critical primary day. Keep it right here.

You're watching Eat THE PRESS now. And welcome back. It is Super Tuesday. I want to bring in our great panel, Cornell Belcher, who's Democratic pollster and NBC News political analyst, and Mark Lauder, chief communications officer for the America First Institute and former special assistant to President Trump.

Quinnell, let's start things off with you, my friend. What are you watching for tonight? What are your top lines? Well, I think watching for tonight is, you know, Nikki, Hal been doing a lot of broadcasts, right?

The record shows they pulled back from doing live television. So I'm interested to still see what percentage of the vote is almost a protest vote. And it breaks for does she get 25, 26, 27% of vote? Does she get somewhere close to a third of the vote even though she's basically gone dark?

I'm looking for that. I'm also looking for it probably the end of night, right. I'm looking for in the next couple hours, next morning for the general election to kick off because it's all but done. Mark, weigh in on that point because do you think Nikki Haley actually drops out tonight?

If, if Trump has the type of night that he is poised to potentially have, there could always be surprises on Super Tuesday. Do you think Nikki Haley announces that she's dropping out on Wednesday? And again, just underscore this point that Cornell is making. She doesn't have any events on her schedule like we're not expecting to hear from her.

I don't think she drops out tonight. I don't know why she's been staying in this long. So why would she want to share the headline with wins Nikki Drops out rather than, if she waits till tomorrow, waits till, you know, Thursday, she gets Nikki Haley drops out of the race. But you know, to your point, the only thing I'm watching for me, this reminds me of like my videotape a ball game and my friend told me my team won't be a very apt analogy.

All right, articulate finalist Chuck Todd is here. Chuck, weigh in on this conversation we are having because I know you're watching a lot. What are your top lines? Well, I mean, look, look, here's the, the sort of the way to watch.

There's one way to watch tonight. And the reason I, we put it this way is really, you know, if this night's at all interesting, it's all do these, these east coast states. One of it, of course, is timing, right? When you win a race, sometimes when it's called, it matters.

Right? And to me, you know, if Nikki Haley wants to feel good about tonight, winning Virginia tonight would give that sort of. And she's a realistic chance. This is one of those days.

And this is something I'm watching for. I mean, I'm with Mark here. This is, you know, what the score, you know, Donald Trump's winning tonight. The question is how big is the victory going to be and how many warning signs are there for the general.

All these places where Trump was vulnerable eight years ago. Virginia's a great example of one Marco Rubio, basically a whole bunch of independents. They all, everybody knows in Virginia said you gotta vote for Marc Rubio to stop, to stop Donald Trump. Well, this year you gotta vote for Nikki Haley to stop Donald Trump.

Mortal supporters are less right. Rubio lost Virginia by four points. That to me is a way to like, what's 10 I look like? So it's not that I'm saying this is a one state race for her, but in many ways it is because everything else will get colored by how successful she is in Virginia.

Because it's early and because it's there. You know, I am, I'm a little bit, you know, I'm very curious how many of these voters are just Democrats wanting to send a message to Trump and how many of these are really Republicans who want to send it, who are like, hey, can we slow the roll here? We're not 100% convinced that Trump is the guy. I think that's the difference between whether Kaylee wins anything tonight or not.

If she doesn't win anything tonight, I think it's proof most of her voters are already Biden voters. Great point, Chuck. I'm Asking you to come join us over at the table. We're going to continue this conversation.

Mark, pick up on where Chuck leads off, which is this idea of Trump's vulnerabilities, because that is really one of the storylines, perhaps the biggest storyline that we're watching tonight. Where is he vulnerable? Or because it's Super Tuesday, has he started to consolidate more support? Virginia will tell us a lot.

What else we can look at that. I'm looking ahead at a lot of general election polling that we have seen and which actually shows Donald not only winning the national vote, which is something that never happened in 2019 or 2020. There's not a single day he was beating Jo Biden head to head. RCP average, real politics average has him up 2 right now.

I know it's early to 20 change and also in swing states. So I think a lot of this, what we're seeing are either independents and Democrats who are planning to vote for Donald Trump anyway or some who are much like ice. My 2016 campaign with then Governor Mike Pence, we spent the last six weeks of our campaign basically telling Republicans it's time to come home. So are many of them already making that case where.

Yeah, I like Nikki Haley shishong. She's a new voice. But if it comes down to it, head to head, I'm taking Donald Trump over Joe Biden. I'm hearing Democrats talk a lot about Trump's vulnerabilities.

Look how vulnerable he is in the general. Do you think that Democrats are over indexing on some of these vulnerabilities, which are real, but are they over indexing on it? And each candidate has a story to tell. And listen, I think we know the story that Donald Trump hasn't told because he's told it before.

And to that point about the polls, look, I said this before. Heck, I said to you, I think Donald Trump is at his ceiling, right? And we've seen past elections. He's a 47% proposition.

And to the point about, you know, whether or not he loses any support for Republicans. Look, I've been on this play before in 2008 when I work for a guy by the name Obama. And people were going, a lot of voters aren't gonna actually support Barack Obama. You know what they did, they wouldn't support Barack Obama.

Now, I think that the lion's share will do the same. But this is a little different, right? There is some people who have some real hang ups with the criminality and with convictions. So is that a different variable?

Maybe, but I Think Donald Trump is at his ceiling. He gets what he's gonna get and they stick with it. Yeah. Karnan, you take the max point.

Chuck, you and I have seen spent from the beginning of this race a lot of time talking about these criminal indictments against former President Trump. Would they start to impact him as they piled up. He's only gotten stronger in the primary, but we're gonna have his first actual criminal court case this month. Do you think it plays differently in the general?

And I ask it against the backdrop. He'll show he's being Biden right now, but if he's convicted, he'll show Biden eats out a win. Well, convicted of what? And that does matter because E.

Jean Carroll he's been adjudicated as a rapist. Okay. And it didn't move the needle. I don't see how anything else touches here on because it's about Trump's sex life.

Even though it does fight politics. There's plenty people getting the legal argument in here that they should be held accountable that the point is that the voters are holding down. I think that's already big there. The answer is no.

We see the dean carry the only one is Jack Smith because who could testify. Right. Because of parade of non Democrats not often brag and F. Willis and Jack Smith trying to prosecute.

But Mike Pence and Mark Meadows and and Bill Barr perhaps. Right. Some pretty credible people. That's gonna happen.

Yeah. You know and I think that's something that like the Biden campaign and Democrats had to stop hoping somebody else does their job like this has been the establishment of the Republican Party. Rich McConnell is hoping somebody else would take care of Trump. And there's always been this mythological something else will take care of.

Maybe the courts will take care of Trump. Maybe there's a Supreme Court will keep off the ballot. How about go campaign. Go beat him in the campaign because ultimately that's the most decisive way you can defeat Donald Trump.

My theory of the case is it's actually not about Trump. Right. To your point, if you're not gonna move off of him after he's been found guilty of sexual assault not to move off him again. He's at 47 for every it's what happens to the rest of the vote out there.

And the rest of vote out there is not about Donald Trump. It's about the story that Joe Biden has to tell. And look when you look inside the polling, right. The I wrote an article about this.

We look at the polling. He's what he's doing the least well is among the Obama continuum. Those younger voters, right. They're not breaking Trump, but they're not happy about what they've seen change.

And they won't change this weekend when the polls by the New York Times poll, about 10% of the voters for Obama, for Biden in 20 are now flipping back over to Trump in 2024. There's case of buyers remorse. We should also alter those numbers a little. And you're not seeing that same flip happen in Trump.

I do think that this spring polling, you know, I was alive for president caucus. I was alive for President Kerry. I was alive for president clowning. I mean when you're winning, okay, you know, there's a point where especially you know who's winning primaries right now.

Right. Donald Trump is not really winning anything. He can come to party. You know, John Kerry's best days were between, between Super Tuesday and March of that year.

What day did the so called ad start running? And the fact is I think the next six weeks are gonna be fascinating. Biden campaign has a huge financial advantage in this moment. This is what every incumbent always hopes for once they get their opponent.

You want to be financially ahead so you can define your opponent. Now how do you define that on Trump these days? Obviously. But the point is they can sort of frame their argument and see what works here.

I'm not sure what's gonna work. I don't know what character attacks work. I don't know whether they need to re educate. A lot of people have memory hold the first three years of the Trump presidency because we've all memory hold everything pre Covid.

Right. This is not a Trump issue. This is like it's astonishing how much I have forgotten that happened in life before COVID Does it work? Does it move the needle?

And that to me is gonna real test the next six weeks. They should be able to get this race back even if not slightly ahead, assuming they really come in full force in the next six weeks. It all starts Thursday. It all starts Thursday.

Chuck, quickly you have a best case, worst case scenario for Trump for folks to see. And really all depends on whether he's going to clinch this nomination next week or he clinches it the following week. A lot of it has to do tonight. Does he get, does he cross the thousand.

He seems to get across the thousand delegate barrier tonight. I think a lot of that has to do with what I said earlier. Right. Which is does he win when I get over everything, does he win every single state time?

I think it's possible he does. Right. He could do that or but if he doesn't win, that's why Virginia is going to tell us if somehow the aliens don't pull up in Virginia, probably Nichi wins Minnesota. I assume that also Colorado, all three are very similar electorates as far as in the rules that go with there.

That's a different conversation tonight than if Donald Trump essentially sweeps everything and she's able to cherry pick delegates here or there in the suburban congressional districts where she's allowed to do it. So, you know, I think that it's, it's sort of like we know goes back to Mark point. We know the outcome of the game, we just don't know the final score. Yeah.

And Mark pick up from where Chuck has left off and talk about Super Tuesday. I mean that best case, worst case scenario there while we're waiting to see if and when Trump eventually clutches the nomination, I mean, what will he be watching for from President Biden on Thursday when he officially rolls out his most robust case yet? I think the biggest challenge that President Biden has is he's trying to convince the American people something to believe, something that they don't see and feel with their own eyes, whether it's high prices, the immigration problem, the wars in Europe and in the middle eas. He's basically saying everything is great, but people are saying they don't feel it or they don't experience it.

And so I think that's always enough to challenge for any political team to try to say, well, don't believe your eyes or your pocketbook. Believe I'm helping Cornell. You want to weigh in on that. That's what campaigns are for, right?

That's right. That's why Bill campaigns I heard in 2012 I don't feel the hope. Right. Hope and change that we promise.

I don't feel hope and change your problems build a campaign to remind them of it. I think they can Chuck how much there's the policy. He's going to talk about the politics and there's the performance of it. How important is the performance aspect?

Obviously he can't have a bad night because there's all this is in the air. You get the hurt testimony that could come. But can I just make one quick point here? I think they're going to have very tricky road here for this side.

You know, the best thing for Biden to do is to start acting like Trump and to start taking potshots in this. You know, Democrats hate this one when we do this. But Democrats want voters hold them, hold Republicans to this high standard that they say they want to be and then they're we're gonna lower our standard and they don't like it when we answer. Political anthropologists here tell them you're not holding yourself up.

I think there's a bunch of voters in the middle who don't want to choose between two people with that behavior. I think this is a very, very, very controversial word for providing go down. And I think I'm sad. And that's why every single word is going to be so meaningful on Thursday.

And thank you for a great panel still with a lot of action, too. Thank you, Chuck. Yeah, exactly. Chuck.

Todd, Cornell Belter, Ed Martin Lauder, appreciate it. We will see you all back here to make for our special coverage. Still ahead, we're live in the two biggest states on the map tonight, Texas and California, where some key down ballot races which shaped the battle for control of the Senate in November. Stay with us.

You're watching. Welcome back. Two of the most delicate rich states tonight also have key down ballot races that we're gonna be watching closely. In California, it's the contentious primary in the race to succeed the late Senator Dianne Feinstein.

Pollster Democratic Congressman Adam Schiff is likely to take the top spot tonight. But in California, the top two vote getters will move to the general election regardless of party. In Texas, Democrats are choosing a candidate to go against Senator Ted Cruz after a surprisingly competitive race in 2018. Congressman Colin Olet is viewed as the front runner in the Democratic primary, but he needs to win a majority tonight to avoid a runoff in May.

And he's facing a slate of more than a half a dozen Democrats on the ballot. NBC News correspondent Jacob Sobroff joins me now from Santa Ana, California. And also with me in Dallas as NBC News correspondent Priscilla Thompson. Jacob, let me start with you.

Break down what you're watching tonight. Well, first I want to say everyone watching right here, you know, in California, you're not going to see the long lines we've seen over many years over many states across, across these United States, because 2020 started the process of transitioning to a vote by mail system. So behind me is the processing of those ballots in real time. I think my eyes are good enough.

It looks like 1,852,653 mailing ballots were sent out from this facility in Santa Ana, California, across Orange county, which very famously be hot by Republican politics. And Orange Curtin, so to speak, fell back in 2018 when Katie Porter and others were elected to the House and ended up flipping it. Katie Porter is central to actually the Democratic Senate race. So the Senate has to stay here in California.

One of three Democrats is running to replace the lay senator, Diane Feinstein. And what's so interesting as what I'm watching is in normal circumstances in California where Democrats and number Republicans two to one, you expect two Democrats in the runoff election, the general election, and Al Sheff and Kat Porter sort of where all the money was at. But Adam Schiff has spent aggressively on behalf, believe it or not, Steve Garvey served psychology, ran negative attack ads that talked him up. Katie Porter has said it's a brazenly cynical campaign that Adam Schiff wants to face.

Steve Garvey, the former Dodger, a Republican, in the general election. And Porter, excuse me, Chip hits her vaccine. You're doing the same thing. The fact of the matter is Porter is not spending that kind of money elevating Republicans that Adam Schiff has done.

It's been a successful campaign strategy, Christian, and ultimately you could see shipping Garvey in that general election here come November. It's exactly what Shift wants. Katie Porter, Barbara Lee, the other congressman in this race, are not happy about that. Yeah, they certainly are.

And I know it's been a big controversy in that race. And obviously Steve Garvey has a lot of name recognition heading into tonight. Jacob, thank you for that great reporting on the ground there. So let me turn to you.

Let's talk about Colin Allred's campaign. How concerned are they about surpassing that 50% mark? Yeah, I spoke to the congressman this morning and he said that he's excited about tonight. And while his campaign is confident, they also recognize that there are nine other Democrats on the ballot today vying for the opportunity to take on Senator Ted Cruz.

And it could very well mean that he does not get over that 50 threshold and that this does go to a runoff. But the reality is that his messaging throughout this primary has been trained on Senator Ted Cruz, really hitting him and Republicans on the issue of abortion. And he says that regardless if he has to spend another two months duking it out with the Democrats, that message is going to remain the same. So already continuing to move towards a general election message person.

Yeah, you talk to him about whether he wants to campaign with President Biden. How do you respond to that? Yeah, he did not give me a straight answer on that. And it came up because we were talking about the issue of immigration.

And he says that he's not shied away from bucking his party on that if he's expressed the need for more urgency and less of a status quo on that issue and he feels the administration is moving in that direction. But when I asked him, well, if Biden comes to town, will you campaign with him? I want to play that exchange for you. Do you find a campaign with Biden here?

Listen, anybody's welcome to come, but my message will stay the same, which is that I'm focused on Texas. And so if Biden plans to come, will you join them? I don't know. He is.

But listen, like I said, whoever comes, whether Trump, Biden, anybody else, you will not hear anything different from me, which is that I'm focus on Texas. I'm focused on how I know Tech Cruise is not representing us. So now I know, but not yet. And you heard him there chuckling and smiling, but again, not answering that question.

But the reality is the people at the top of this valley are going to impact those down these down valley races. And it's likely shaping up to be President Biden and former President Trump. And we know that polling suggests that voters are more confident and Republicans ability to handle the border. And I gotta tell you, every voter that I spoke to here today, the border has been one of the first issues out of their mouth when I asked them what is animating them this election cycle.

Kristen. And we just have about 30 seconds left just for a little bit of historical context. Better. O' Rourke came close to beating Ted Cruz in 2018.

Does that make. All right. A little nervous about his prospects? I mean, he's really taking on a giant there.

Yeah. Important to know that Democrats have not seen as kind of margin statewide since that or did that in 2018. But Colin already said this is a different time, the issues are different and that he is used to being a long shot. He won his House by beating a Republican incumbent and he believes that he can beat the odds again at this time.

So we will see what happens tonight, of course, what happens ultimately and November person. We'll watch it very closely. Priscilla, thank you. I did so beforehand and that does it for us this hour.

But folks, do not go anywhere. As we mentioned, my colleagues Lester Holt, Savannah Guffre, Tom Y Jackson and I will have special coverage all night long tonight. So do not miss it. I'm Greg.

Mel. Cheers. Cheers. Cheers.

I've always been a glass half full kind of guy and now I'm talking to some people who look at the world that way too. Some really fascinating folks who share their defining moments, their triumphs and challenges, their stories are fun and so I hope you'll join me each week. Who knows, you might just come away with your own glass half full Search Glass Apple with Craig Milford From Today on YouTube. Wherever you get a podcast.