If it's Monday. 11 more hostages just released from Gaza as Israel and Hamas agree to extend their temporary truce for two more days, paving the way for even more hostages to be released and for more aid to get to those who desperately need it. Plus, the gunman who allegedly opened fire on three students of Palestinian descent in Vermont is now charged with attempted murder as federal officials investigate whether the incident was a hate crime. And it's crunch time at the Capitol.
Lawmakers are at odds over the future of aid to Israel and Ukraine as they consider an historic expulsion of disgraced Congressman George Santos. Welcome to Media Press now. I'm Garrett Haken. We're following breaking news.
Eleven hostages are now in Israeli territory according to the IDF after being released by Hamas as an agreement to extend the Israelite Hamas ceasefire for two more days has been reached. This is video from Al Jazeera appearing to show the moment some of those hostages were handed over to the International Red Cross. In exchange, Israel is releasing 33 Palestinian prisoners, according to the Egyptian government. And we now learn the names of the 11 hostages released today shared by their families through the Hostage and Missing Families forum.
The group includes three year old twins and two sets of siblings. No Americans were among those released today. According to Qatar, as many as 20 women and children held by Hamas could be released over the next two days as the ceasefire has now been extended. The White House welcomed the news of the extended truce as National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby says the administration remains focused on bringing home the Americans still held in Gaza.
That follows scenes of jubilation in Israel over the weekend with roughly 40 Israeli hostages freed over three days in exchange for 117 Palestinian prisoners. Nearly 24 nationals were also released as part of a separate agreement. We saw emotional reunions, including the first American free four year old, Abigail Idan, whose parents were murdered by Hamas on October 7, reunited with her aunt and uncle and grandparents at a children's hospital in Israel for the Asher family. Father Yoni was reunited with his wife Jerome and their two daughters, all three of whom were released on Friday.
And nine year old Emily Hand also reunited with her family, seen in this video, embracing her older sister. She can also be seen hugging her father Thomas, in a video released by the IDF showing another free hostage, Hila Rotem, who turns 13 today reunited with her family. Her mother is still being held captive. And Mrs.
Richard Engle spoke with Hila's uncle outside the hospital about her condition. Now Hila is talkative. She speaks. I think she's dealing a little bit of shock because she doesn't show a lot of emotions, but even with you, she doesn't show much more.
Yeah, she speaks about it like it's a scene from a movie. My heart aches. My stomach is, you know, turning upside down. It's very hard.
You know, I have a lie here, but I really need her mother back and also my sister, of course. So it's very hard. Also, I think about my sister, Captain Captivity, knowing that they took her daughter. An estimated 184 hostages are still being held in Gaza, and it remains unclear how many are being directly held by Hamas as opposed to by other militant groups.
Meanwhile, the ongoing pause in fighting will allow even more humanitarian aid to enter the Gaza Strip as the situation there remains dire. Dwight has said more than 200 trucks entered Gaza at the Rafah border crossing yesterday. That's the biggest convoy since October 7th. Joining me now is Aaron Blockland in Tel Aviv, Ali Rafa at the White House, and I'm also joined by former NBC News Tel Aviv bureau chief Martin Fletcher.
Aaron, also review what else we're learning about these is 11 Israeli hostages released today. Okay. We just received a statement from the Israeli military confirming that the Red Cross has handed all 11 now former hostages over to the Israeli military. They will be accompanied by the Israeli military as well as special forces to the hospital where they will undergo medical evaluation.
And it's at the hospital in Israel that they would be reunited with their families. We're also hearing from the foreign Minister of Qatar put out a statement detailing the nationalities of the hostages released. We now know that there's three French citizens, two German citizens, and six Argentinian citizens that were handed over to the icrc. Dual nationalities, no Americans among today's release.
Also, we're getting an official statement from the hard hit kibbutz near Oz. All 11 of the hostages you see there on the screen came from this single kibbutz. The head of the kibbutz releasing the statement saying, the news this evening brings a sigh of relief to our community. However, we remain deeply concerned about our loved ones that are still held hostage.
We demand the return of all hostages immediately, whatever it takes. A statement noting that of the 139 remaining hostages, 49 are still from near us. The first group of hostages have been back in Israeli territory, in Israeli custody for a couple of days now. Do we know what Israel's been able to learn about the Hamas operation from the folks who they held?
Well, right now the now former hostages are with their families. That is really seen as the priority in terms of the Process. It's a very specific process that these hostages go through. The minute they are transferred from the Red Cross to the Israeli military, they are immediately accompanied by experts, psychological experts, social welfare expert and expert.
Actually, they're assigned right when they cross from the border that expert psychologist, social worker will follow them through their year long, year long recovery process. They're then brought to a hospital under they undergo medical evaluation, then they are reunited with their families. That is being seen as a priority at this point now in terms of handing over critical information what may or may not have happened when they were in Hamas custody. While we understand that the Israeli military will, depending on the medical evaluation and the psychological status of the hostage, then be able to interview them once they reunited with family, once they spoken to a therapist, it does not seem, according to information we have, that the children will be specifically questioned about that.
Garrett and what would we know about this extension now for a couple of days? How likely is it that it goes beyond those two days? Well, that is an open question. This from the very beginning was seen as an extraordinarily fragile process.
Many of the families of the hostages that I've been talking to are actually shocked that this process had made it this far. They never thought possible that Israel could reach an agreement with Hamas now that the preliminary deal, the original deal, which is four days, is complete. Now we're hearing from Qatar, Hamas, we're still waiting to hear from the Israelis on the confirmation of that two day extension. Each day would involve the release of 10 additional hostages.
It's possible it could extend beyond that. But again, we're still waiting to hear from the Israelis. The key advisor to Benjamin Netanyahu earlier in the day was saying they're waiting for the completion of the exchange, the completion of this four day ceasefire. And then the Israelis are going to talk about whatever they've agreed to today in terms of that two day extension.
All right, Aaron Bluffen, Forrest and Tel Aviv. Aaron, thank you. I want to turn to Ali Rafa now at the White House. So Ali, what are we learning about the role the president and the White House played in getting this deal extended and the possibility that Americans might be part of the future release?
Yeah. Well, White House officials are saying that the president has been and will continue to play a very key role. They say he played a key role in not only the original cease fire deal, but also resolving the obstacles over the weekend that resulted when Hamas had delayed for hours the release of another batch of hostages. And they say the president is also very involved in this Extension and what White House officials hope will be an extension even further.
They say that the President is continuing to work the phones with the leaders of Qatar, of Jordan, and of course with Israel. The President speaking with Prime Minister Netanyahu last night saying that they had agreed to remain in very close contact over the next few days. And a large focus of that conversation that they had was the extension of the ceasefire as far as the remaining American hostages. We heard White House spokesperson Admiral John Kirby some updates as to their whereabouts.
Their conditions today was very honest with the American public as to what the US Government does and still does not know. KIRBY saying that U.S. officials have been watching and waiting to see whether Americans would be among those released today, will be among those released in the coming days as part of this extension. And they say they're still hopeful that two American women who, like that four year old Abigail John was released yesterday, meet the terms of release of the ceasefire.
They're hopeful that they will be released, at the very least out of this deal. But they say that they're, they believe there are roughly eight or nine Americans still left in Gaza, their exact locations and conditions still unknown. And Kirby made a point to say that the US Is still not able to confirm that Hamas is in possession of all of the remaining American hostages, saying that it's possible that they are with other terrorist groups within Gaza. And because of that they could be different locations and because of that, their conditions could range significantly.
All right, I, Rafa at the White House, thank you. We're bringing Martin Fletcher, now our former television bureau chief. Right now we come back to that idea about folks beyond Hamas. Folks might be hostages of other organizations beyond Hamas.
But I gotta ask you first, members of your family were among the hostages released by Hamas over the weekend. How are they doing? Have you been able to talk to them? How much more you know about their condition?
That's right, Gary. So we have six members of my wife's family were released on Saturday. That leaves one member of our family who's still held hostage. Tali's a 38 year old father.
Look, everybody's, you know, delighted and happy of course, and celebrating the release, especially the three children. You know, we had a three year old Yale and now they was eight. No, I'm 12. They're all home and in the arms of their loved ones.
But the question about when their father Tal will be released. He's among the men. And so the Hamas said they're not going to release soldiers, male and female or men of military age. Military fighting Age.
So there's a lot of joy and it's a bit of sweet, a very bittersweet occasion. Mostly people are just happy that the three children, the young ones, seem to be doing well physically. And we don't know yet, of course, how that's going to play out mentally. No, I can't imagine you will for a long time.
I want to ask you about something that Ali touched on, which I feel like we could really lean on your expertise in this region. The idea that we don't know who has all of these hostages, that it's not just Hamas who holds hostages. Can you explain a little bit about that dynamic and what other groups might be at play here and whether Hamas would even know who is where in terms of hostages inside what's ostensibly their territory? Yeah, well, first of all, we have to emphasize that whatever Hamas says about who they're holding, how they are and where they are, we have to take with a pinch of salt because this is a period of psychological warfare.
Very much so. But we do know from early on that Islamic Jihad, who are another Islamic fighters group in Gaza, they said earlier on that they had taken 30, about 30 hostages themselves. And then they also said that there were criminal groups in Gaza who had come behind the attacking fighters, behind the terrorists, and that they also may have taken people hostage and we don't know where they are. So I think it's probably true.
There's some real confusion about where everybody is, but Hamas probably knows more than they're saying. A couple of days ago, Hamas said they only know the whereabouts of about 120 people. So I believe the number is something like another 190 are still accountable. So it's possible that other groups have some members of some of the hostages and they're not involved in negotiations.
As far as we, on the subject of Hamas, the idea they benefit from the ceasefire. Right. They have the opportunity to regroup, they get to sort of take their breath militarily. Once the deal expires, whenever that may be, what do you expect to see happen on the ground militarily?
And do you see Hamas trying to draw this out for more and more days to have that kind of military reprieve? Yeah, yeah. The longer it lasts, the more it plays into Hamas hands for exactly what you said, rearming, resupplying, restoring communications in every way. The longer the ceasefire lasts, the better it is for Hamas because this is, you know, they win.
I mean, the Hamas shows the Palestinian people that the only way to get anything out of Israel and to get Palestinians released from Israeli jails is through violence. So this is a, you know, the pictures look terrible for the people of Gaza, but for Hamas, it's pretty much a victory. So the longer the ceasefire lasts, the better for them. For Israel too, don't forget.
It's also a matter of resupplying, focusing on which task comes next. So there's some advantage for Israel, but it's a small advantage. And the Israeli Prime Minister and the military leaders of Israel have stressed, have emphasized that they want to get back to war as soon as this negotiations dry up with the Masabel releasing hostages. And there's political pressures here, internationally too, from other countries where the idea of a cease fire has been more popular.
There might be more pressure on Israel to keep a ceasefire in place. I want to ask you about another part of this conflict more than hasn't gotten as much attention, but that I feel like could blow up at any time. And that's what's going on in the West Bank. We've seen this increase in settler violence in the West Bank, President Biden's proposed visa bans against people who might be perpetrating violence there.
How concerned should we be, should the Israeli government be about further outbreaks of violence as the tension continues to rise there in the west bank territory? Look, I think the idea of the Palestinian uprising, the west bank is this close, same way as we've been saying in the northern border, that all our war with his Bella is this close too, is very, very volatile. Israel's been operating inside west bank towns, I believe daily, nightly, almost since its holy, since its whole disaster began, arresting people in particular, Hamat remembers of Hamas. Hamas is quite strong in the West Bank.
Not as strong as the ruler, the ruling organization in Ramana, Fata, but Hamas is strong. So Israel's been arresting as many of those Hamas leaders as they can. They've been having gunfights in Palestinian towns at night. There's a question of the Jewish settlers who believe and feel they've been given the green flag by this extreme right wing government in Jerusalem.
So there's a lot of friction points. Settlers, Palestinians, Hamas, the Israeli army. You know, it can blow any time on this thing. Martin, I'm so glad we have your expertise on a day like this.
Martin Fletcher, thank you for joining us. Thank you. And turning on to Burlington, Vermont, where 48 year old Jason Eaton, the suspect in the shooting of three students of Palestinian descent, pled guilty to three counts of attempted murder today. The students were visiting the homes of one of their families for the Thanksgiving holiday.
According to the chief of police, the three men were walking down the walking down the street, speaking in both English and in Arabic, two wearing kefa as it's a traditional Palestinian headdresser scarf, when they were approached by the suspect who just began shooting. All three victims were hospitalized. Two are in stable condition and the third sustained more serious injuries. In a statement moments ago, President Biden said he was horrified to learn about the shooting and was praying for their full recovery.
Attorney General Merrick Garland said the FBI and the ATF are investigated whether this shooting was a hate crime. In a press conference this afternoon, Burlington Mayor Weinberger called the shooting the most shocking and disturbing event in the city's history. The uncles of two of those victims also spoke. Here's what one of them had to Keenan grew up in the west bank, and we always thought that that could be more of a risk in terms of his safety.
And sending him here would be a, you know, the right we feel somehow betrayed in that decision here. And, you know, we're just trying to come to terms with everything. Joining now is NBC News investigative correspondent Tom Winter has been over this story since the weekend. So, Tom, what will we know, the details about the suspect and the shooting itself?
Well, guy, through the course of the day, we're starting to learn more details not only from police but former employers of this individual identified as Jason J. Eaton. He's 48 years old. He's from Burlington.
He's from, according to police, across the street from where this very shooting occurred. Apparently, when ATF agents knocked on his door shortly after 3:30 yesterday afternoon, he told them, quote, in a reading from the court documents, I've been waiting for you. They asked him if he had a gun in the residence. He only said he had a shotgun.
It turns out, according to police, he had three shotguns or rifles. And on top of that, they say he had a.38 caliber pistol whose ammunition type and manufacturer and a specific part of that ammunition match the exact ammunition that was found at the shooting scene. So that's why they only ultimately made the arrest in this case. Now the big question is why?
Why did this happen? What is the motive? Apparently, he was not talking to police after he requested a lawyer at his apartment. Yeah, so the attorney general said to the FBI and the ATF are investigating the idea that this is a hate crime.
I mean, on its face, it certainly looks that way, but what does an investigation into something like that entail, especially if the suspect's not cooperating? Right, Gary. So there's A couple different ways that they can get at motive without this individual saying another word. And one of those ways we know that they're doing this, they seized a backpack full of hard drives.
They seized five iPhones. They also got five cell phones, I should say, as well as an iPad. So they'll go through all that and see if this individual had any sort of writings, any sort of a manifesto, any sort of statement. What have they been consuming, what have they been talking to others about?
Has he made any statements? We've looked through the NBC News investigative team, our social news gathering team have looked through his social media accounts. There doesn't appear to be anything that directly references the shooting. But of course, what he has on his person or in his apartment could be an entirely different matter.
And the FBI's cast team, car team, excuse me, the computer analysis team will go through those things, and then that might ultimately help come up with a motive here. And if there is a motive against these individuals purely because they were Palestinian Americans or presumed to be from the Middle east for wearing two or three wearing the kafiyah, as you talked about earlier, that would be something that perhaps could be chargeable. And we've talked about this before, but the doj, all these local police departments, they've all been warning about upticks in violence against both Jewish and Arab communities. What additional steps are the feds taking to address this kind of violence?
Yeah, Garrett, this is the hardest type to stop, right? Because this individual apparently just got out of his apartment complex and started firing without saying anything, according to police. So the big question here is what you do with an individual like this that just decides to act out on their own, purchase the weapon back in April. So there's no immediate nexus to any weapons or explosives buys.
It's just very difficult to stop this type of thing outside of just doing the best you can to monitor any potential individual like this. All right, Tom winner, appreciate your reporting on this. And coming up, Congress is back in business today with lawmakers facing a fierce debate over the future of foreign aid, a potential House expulsion vote, and a tight timeline to get it all done. We're live on Hill with the very latest developments.
Plus, clash of the campaigns. It's Ron DeSantis versus Nikki Haley in the race to be the top Trump alternative in Iowa, which is 49 days to go until caucus day. You're watching Meet the Press now. Welcome back.
The Senate is back at work today, and while not much work gets done in most workplaces between Thanksgiving and New Year's, There are only 12 legislative days left before the end of this year and Congress has a lot to get done. Number one on that list is negotiating a deal on foreign aid to both Israel and Ukraine. We're also keeping an eye out this week for another item on the congressional to do list of on whether to expel Congressman George Santos from his seat for misusing campaign funds and a host of other alleged transgressions and federal crimes. NBC News national political reporter Sahil Kapoor joins me now.
And Sadhill, the Senate's back for recess. We're right back where we left off with foreign aids, Ukraine and Israel back on the table. But when I hear anything in Washington's condition on a deal on immigration, I get a little bit nervous that it's gonna get done. What are you hearing about the path to get those items across the finish line?
Yeah, Gary, I'd be very skeptical that Congress has not been able to reach an immigration deal in several decades. It's suddenly gonna be able to do one in the next few days or weeks. That is the centerpiece of the logjam here, at least according to Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, who said he wants to bring up President Biden's national security supplemental, the whole 105 billion, as early as next week. He is criticizing Republicans for demanding restrictions on asylum and parole, changes to immigration laws as a condition for passing Ukraine aid.
That's a serious obstacle in the Sen. Korean supporters like Senate minority leader Mitch McConnell sided with the conservatives want those immigration changes as a condition. Then there's Israel aid, which also faces a rocky path. The House has passed a mostly partisan bill on Israel aid that Democrats say is going nowhere in the Senate.
And in the Senate it's unclear, you know, whether this large package that Senator Chuck Schumer is trying to move forward can pass in part because there's a division among Democrats as well as to whether to slap conditions on aid to Israel. Senator Bernie Sanders al the progressive wing saying that there should not be a blank check approach in Israel, that the United States must not be complicit in violations of international law. Essentially blind changes in the way Israel has been operating, at least in Netanyahu government has been operating. So it's a Rubik's Cube at this moment.
Unclear how this gets resolved. There is a timing issue. They can always add more workdays till the end of the year. Congress is famous for extending their own deadline if they have to.
We talk about George Santos very quickly. Do you think we see that vote this week? What happens next in that drama. Well, there is a privilege resolution out there and the rule is that when one member calls it up, it has to get up within two legislative days.
And it's very possible that this could happen within just the next two legislative days. At the committee recently put out a damning report on George Santos and the Republican chair about how Michael Guest has said that there are egregious violations that Santos is guilty of, including misuse of campaign funds, deceiving donors, filing false campaign reports, fictitious loans, generally trying to enrich himself. And Santos himself indicated that he knows he will be expelled. It seems like his days are numbered.
This could happen as early as Wednesday or Thursday. The House comes back in tomorrow. We'll see if that proposed resolution is called up there. There's a number and the number may be small.
Silicapore, thank you for your reporting. And up next, it's crunch time for the Republican presidential field. We're checking in on the road to Iowa and the road to the White House, which is seven weeks to go until the first primary contest. You're WATCHING ME the PRESS now.
Welcome back. With just seven weeks to go now until Iowa caucuses, every week is a big week for the remaining Republican presidential candidates. Vikramasami has six events scheduled throughout the state just tomorrow as he looks to reach as many islands as he can before the Republican caucus. Former President Donald Trump will return to the state for two rallies on Saturday in Ankeny and Cedar Rapids.
He's got a pretty significant lead in our latest NBC News Des Moines Register Mediacom poll. And on Saturday, 4 Governor Ron DeSantis is set to complete what we call the full Grassley. That's what it's called when you visit all 99 Iowa counties during one campaign cycle. DeSantis will be holding rally with the state governor Kim Reynolds in Newton as his campaign looks to fend off Nikki Haley, who's been gaining ground in the polls in Iowa and elsewhere.
Joining me now with some insight on the Republican presidential primary is Amy Walter, the publisher and editor in chief of the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter. Amy, I'm a big math guy, but it seems like both Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley can't both come in second in Iowa. And it seems like they both really need to at least come in second in Iowa. Well, I think the pressure is even more on Ron DeSantis coming second or hey, maybe even first.
But that looks like a longer shot at this point than we've seen really going back 40 or 50 years. We've not seen Somebody with a lead this big, like you said, like you pointed out your NBC poll, go on to lose it and lose the caucus. But DeSantis not only has the governor behind him this weekend, he also got or earlier last week he got the endorsement of Bob Vanderplatz, who is the head of a significant evangelical constituency. The last of the reinforcements that he made in the caucuses, those folks all went on to win.
So he's got the institutional support in the states, but underneath that, there's not that same level of grassroots support that he was hoping he would find. And you're right. Nikki Haley becomes another factor here, not just in edging him out for second place, but I think she benefits just from getting enough momentum through to New Hampshire. She seems to have by far the more plausible path for the day after Iowa through the remaining six.
If she has the money. If she has the money and also the momentum, you know how quickly the perceptions about who is the front runner or who has the momentum after Iowa. Centaurum Rick Santori vote win and I will created the boom left and that he took all the way until, well, he ran out of running room and Mitt Romney ultimately succeeded. So I do think that for Haley, just a good third place finish, getting close enough to show that she's still in the race to take that to New Hampsh.
And then let's see if Chris Christie can really hold on to a lot of those votes that he currently holds right now if he's the guy who's not really in the news anymore. Is that the piece for Haley? Because I'm struck by the challenge where she has where it's almost like, you know, or in Cass where she's consolidating not Trump vote. Right.
And that means getting those voters from Chris Christie without alienating some Trump voters who she needs to collect too. And she's actually going to be the nominee. That's been the challenge for every candidate not named Trump from the very beginning. DeSantis hasn't been able to figure out how to put those two groups together.
What DeSantis and Haley seem to share is the belief that the best way to bring those two groups together, that sometimes Trump and the never Trump is with an electability argument. The post Trump. Yes, the post Trump is with an electability argument. And yet that really hasn't been very effective either because when we look at the polls right now, Donald Trump is doing very well against Joe Biden.
He's not doing worse than say a Ron Destinis. Haley's doing slightly better. But it's not that Trump is losing. And so that makes the electability case really problematic.
I think if you're Haley, what you're just hoping is you get a strong enough showing out of Iowa to be able to live another day to get to a place like New Hampshire, which does have a lot more of the sort of not Trump constituencies and independent voters, and then hope in the warmer climate of South Carolina, you're friendly constituents come home. But mostly what you're hoping is between those dates, something else happens that shifts the trajectory of this race. Namely, do perceptions of Donald Trump and these legal cases against him start to matter more as we get into election season? It hasn't so far.
So I don't know that I'm gonna come to the sanctuary. One more quick point here because he spent a ton of money on Iowa trying to move the needle. There's been a lot of reporting led by NBC about the infighting. He's super pac.
I don't care about staff stories. But campaigns that they're doing well don't generally pick each other apart in the press. Should he be spending his money like Boost Joe Biden? Is that the most helpful thing he can do to improve his electability, to make Donald Trump look weaker?
I mean, do they need to just fundamentally overhaul the strategy in the timeline? I don't know that they can fundamentally overhaul who he is as a candidate and what his appeal is. All right, you all certainly have to leave it there. I always appreciate these chats.
I do, too. Thank you so much. All right, after the break, ditching the dysfunction, I'll talk to Congressman Dan Kildy who's joined a growing list of House lawmakers not seeking re election. We'll talk about his decision and the state of our politics.
You're watching me, the PRESS now. Welcome back. It's now the holiday season, a time for seeing loved ones and for members of Congress apparently time to decide they won't seek revenge election. We're only at the beginning of the holidays and already a lot of representatives are deciding to call a career in the House as partisan squabbling and dysfunction reach new levels in the Capitol.
Check this out. As of today, 32 House members say they will not be running for re election next November. And this list is guaranteed to grow as filing deadlines approach in more and more states. Now, these names include plenty of representatives seeking higher office, but it also includes members of the so called governing wing of the House, the more moderate members known for across the aisle deal making journey now is one of those retiring members, Michigan Democratic Congressman Dan Kildy.
So, Congressman, thank you for coming in. You stepping down could mean that your seat flips to the Republicans. You've said this is the right decision for you and for your family, but do you worry about it being the wrong decision for your party? Yeah, there's never a good time to leave when it's one of these toss up districts, that's for sure.
But after winning this particular district by more than 10 points in 2022, I felt like I've at least shown the way to win. It won't be any easier. I'm presuming President Biden will be reelected. It won't be any easier in the midterm.
So there's never a good time to leave. But there's never the wrong time either when it comes to this. It's a personal decision long before it's a political calculation. And for me, the personal choice became pretty apparent over the last couple of months.
It was time for me to come home. How much did the fact that you look around seeing your colleagues retiring, head for the exits factor into your decision? You've talked about the dysfunction in the current Congress. If it's the serious people leaving and the kind of less serious people staying, I imagine that makes it a less appealing workplace to stick around.
Yeah, that's part of the calculation. Because in the personal decision is whether I will continue to make the trade off between the loss of connection to family and friends right here at home to go do the work in Washington and when. What we've seen is not just partisanship but as I guess we'd all describe it, dysfunction. What we're seeing right now is not a problem partisanship.
It's a problem that the particular Republican Party as it's currently constituted is incapable of governing and incapable of compromise unless held to an extreme deadline. That's no way to work. So it's part of the calculation. But again, it's only in the sense that I weigh continuing to work in this environment against continuing to be not at home for more than half of the time.
That was too much to take. I totally get that. I'm curious. You talk about presuming President Biden wins in 2024.
I don't know if that's a presumption you can just make, I mean, talk to me bit about your state. Are you concerned at the way Michigan has grown, apparently more competitive as we look ahead to next year? Yeah, it will be a battleground state. No question about it.
We've proven that we know how to win. We did it in 2018, we did it again in 2020. We obviously did it in 2022. 2024 has a unique set of challenges.
It's a presidential year. But I think it's really important to not misread some of the polling. The polling measures not only the current race, horse or horse race, I should say, but also measures the enthusiasm in the moment. And one thing I've seen is that this is going to be a race more than likely between Donald Trump and President Biden.
President Biden supporters are more thoughtful, maybe more circumspect. President Trump's supporters treat this like a religion, like he's a religious fish. There's no dissuading them of his perfection. And so their enthusiasm at this early stage is always going to show up as being more pronounced than those of us who kind of sit back and weigh the equities before casting a ballot.
So it's going to be tough race, but I don't think we should get too tangled up in these polling. Is it a 2023 issue or a 2024 issue? You represent and part of Michigan, we have a lot of Arab American, Muslim American constituents concerned about the way that the Israel Hamas was being conducted and the White House's response to it. Do you worry about those Americans turning their back on this president in 2024?
Yeah, it's a legitimate concern because I know there's a lot of concern within the Arab American and Muslim, broader Muslim community regarding the US Support for Israel in this moment. I happen to be a supporter of Israel's rights to defend itself, but I share many of the concerns, concerns that many of my constituents have raised with me. That we can't be a blank check. That Israel has to be held to international standards and be accountable to international law and the targeting of civilian populations is completely unacceptable.
So I get that and it is a political challenge for me. The conclusion I come to about my criticism of Israel has nothing to do with politics at the moment. I think that's probably true for President Biden, but it will potentially have an effect. Does he need to do more to address it going forward?
I think the real question is how this issue gets resolved. It's my hope that four days of so called ceasefire in order to get the hostages released and get the humanitarian aid delivered. I understand another two days have been added. Look, if we can do this one day at a time and negotiate, push, maybe the United States can assert itself and try to find a path forward.
For that region. I don't believe that a pure military solution will ever be the solution to the problem. We've got to get to a place where we're negotiating. I hope the president takes the bully pulpit that he has on the global stage and tries to encourage that we get to that point sooner rather than later.
Last question. I think talking about deal making here. We've talked a lot about the aid package. It's going to have to work its way to the House.
Obviously the House has already passed. The Israel aid bill is probably going nowhere in the Senate. Are you willing to accept some kind of cobble together deal here that might include changes at the border or an immigration policy, if that's what it takes to get Ukraine aid, Israel aid, all of those priorities across the finish line. What's it deal like that look like?
Well, it looks like compromise and I'll have to wait equities once I see what the what the actual deal looks like. But in broad form, I'm definitely willing to move forward on something that supports our ally Ukraine in their struggle against Putin, that continues to help Israel defend itself in a way that does not make matters worse. And of course, we do have a problem at the border and the question is how do we solve it? I do believe we don't need more resources there.
So the details matter on all of this and I have made a judgment on whether or not support the final package. But if all aspects of this are reasonable and balanced, then as I consider myself part of the governing caucus of Congress, I would certainly look fairly upon that governing for a little while longer. Congressman Tilly, thank you coming for coming on. Thank you, Garrett.
All right. Turning now to Georgia, where ceremonies honoring the life of former surfer first lady Roselyn Carter have begun. The motorcade carrying her remains arrived at the Jimmy Carter Presidential Library and Museum in Atlanta earlier this afternoon. The public will have a chance to pay their respects later this evening.
Meanwhile, former President Carter, who's been in the hospice since February, is in Atlanta and is expected to attend a service tomorrow at Emory University. President Biden and Vice President Harris are also expected to attend that service. Rosalynn Carter passed away last weekend. She was 96 years old.
Welcome back. With Thanksgiving breakover now and finals week looming just a few weeks from now for high school and college students, we thought we'd offer a couple of history lessons ahead of the 2024 election, which is now less than a year out, if you can believe it. First, some bad news for Democrats who pointed then President Obama in poor polling shape at this point in 20 as proof that President Biden's reelection bid has no cause for panic. Our latest NBC News poll from earlier this month shows the president trailing Donald Trump by two points among registered voters.
But our NBC News Wall Street Journal poll from November of 2011 showed them President Obama actually leading Mitt Romney by six points among registered voters. And keep in mind Mitt Romney was not the dominant Republican frontrunner at that point. There is, however, historical evidence that a Biden Trump rematch could advantage the current president. An NBC News analysis found that election losers usually lose in their rematches too.
In fact, just 16 times in 69 rematches of Senate and gubernatorial rematches did the candidate lose the first time go on to win in a rematch. It's about a 23% chance. I said it enough in math guy, but I'll do my best. I'm joined now by my Washington bureau, chief of the Economist, Maria Theresa Kumar, president and CEO of Voto Latino and an MCU's contributor.
And Sarah Chamberlain is a Republican strategist and president and CEO of Main Street Partnership. So, all right, which of those historical analyses do you think is most cogent as we look at 2024? The sort of upside down polling from 2011 to now or the idea that these rematches just don't seem to change things very much for the losers? You know, it's such an exotic scenario, right?
You have to go back to Grover Cleveland to see a president who's trying to take back maybe Teddy Roosevelt. So I think they made the Senate and goodnutial rematches might not be able to look at the poll numbers are certainly concerning. Polls tend to move over time. But if you're President Biden and you think that your opponent would be as fatally wounded as you ought to be, this is now the starting point for the election.
Democrats love this 2011 comparison. But having covered them both, Mitt Romney is not Donald Trump. Not in comparison. Now not in comparison.
Then what do you make of numbers like that and showing the president underwater, especially when compared them to the last Democratic president. I think that there is absolutely a cause for concern. However, if we see what happened during the midterm elections when up to that point so Biden was underwater, but who came out and voted during the midterms actually basically said there was no red wave, you didn't see defection. If anything, you actually saw increase in turnout.
I also think that the Democrats, once they are on the campaign trail, are able to remind who Donald Trump, not just the fact that he has this anti Democratic force around him, but that he wants to repeal the aca, that he wants institute mass deportations, and that he doesn't know that he is part of a party that wants to take away women's right to choose. I think that then all of a sudden you're going to see something more balanced. Do the Democrats have a lot of work to do? Absolutely.
Should they focus only on current registered voters? No. They have an opportunity by increasing their base through young voters. We're expecting roughly 12 million young voters to come of age.
And if you ask a young voter, do they believe in climate change? They do. Access to working care. They do.
Do they believe in the system? That's the question mark. Young voters have been noticeably cool to President Biden in our polling, though. Is that an opportunity for Republicans or is that a mirage?
The idea that young voters at least appear to be more open to Republicans here, I think it's mirage. Unfortunately for the Republican Party. I have a daughter who's getting ready to step into 18 and she doesn't like Joe Biden. She thinks President Biden is too old.
He's older than her grandfather, so that's really old to her. But she's not necessarily a Trump mega person either, for the reasons you already mentioned. So I don't know where they're going to go. I think the Democrats will certainly capture them, but I think that the Main Street Republicans, the conservative members, are going to fight for them front, lower ballot.
Was the banging sound I heard over the weekend, the kind of Republicans you work with slamming their heads at the tables? When Donald Trump started talking about repealing the ACA again over this weekend, here's an issue I thought we were never going to talk about again in modern politics and Donald Trump serving it back up. You heard that, too? Yes.
It was scary. And the text messaging, I was was like, really? Why do we have to revisit this? Is there room for a healthcare debate here?
The table Democrats must be thrown by this opportunity. What does that look like if it becomes part of the general election? Congress? We saw the president and the White House leap on this.
They're really happy to talk about. Donald Trump wanting to repeal the ACA went really poorly when he was president. It's an issue that they're uncomfortable to train on. Whereas the ones that Donald Trump would like to talk about, immigration, climate change, inflation, are ones that are on the back foot.
The more that he makes that issue salient, the better it is for them. All of a sudden, I've been Transported back to 2018 if Democrats can run on health care and on reminding folks they don't like Trump, those do seem to be kind of like the two key pieces to keeping the Democratic coalition united. Well, you also have policy that the President has signed into it. So when you talk about climate change and getting people excited, you basically have a trillion dollar package that they can point to.
When you talk about codifying Roe vs. Wade, the only way to do that is to have an active member in the House, in the Senate and in House. And so I do think that there's a coalition to be made saying, look, not only did you vote, but you also have receipts to show that when you vote, you actually change systems. And Donald Trump, for so many people, is the emphasis of democracy and what he represents.
And this idea of creating a divisive American order to win doesn't sit well with most voters, regardless if they're Republican, Independent or Democrat. But the polling that we show is maybe they're not anxious to vote for Trump, but they really do think Biden's too old, he's slow, he walks slowly. And they're like, is that really what we want, lead in the country? And the answer is no.
And I'm not sure polling is going to change on that. We actually did very similar polling last April. Going into the midterm, we found that we don't want. Okay, who do you want?
And no one surfaced. This is the challenge, right? This is the challenge to find the person who the voters don't like, either candidate, and who do they go for? I mean, what do you do in a political environment like that?
Has an election like that play out? Doesn't mean we're going to seriously have to worry about third party spoilers, plural. In this race. It's really hard to predict how third party candidates are going to go.
The ones we have now are particularly idiosyncratic. Right. Robert F. Kennedy, Daniel west, you know, they're going to peel away some of the unenthused voters who might otherwise stay home.
But predicting at this point, where that's going to go is, I think, hard. There's one other point that I think is worth making which that even though it appears America's 5050 this time around, it was 5050 under Obama. There's been a big shift tectonically in American politics. Hygienic voters are becoming more Democratic.
It's a different 50, 50. It's a different 50, 50. And black voters are moving towards the Republican Party. Hispanic voters, by a fairly large margin last eight years, have moved towards the Republican Party, if that continues and if that realignment does surface, I mean, that is a good thing that determines whether or not the election is decided for Donald Trump, which you could very well, fair and square win.
Sorry. I'm noticing over the last week and a half and looking ahead this week at Donald Trump's schedule, he's not doing very much. Now, some of that is that he doesn't have to, given the nature of the right now. But given what you just talked about in your polling, what you chose about Joe Biden, is there a strategic imperative here for Donald Trump to basically sit on his hands and not remind Trump skeptical people why they're skeptical of him in the first place?
I think that's exactly his strategy. Because when he does get up there, some of the things he says, like he's running against President Obama, some of the things don't make sense. So the last he put him out there, which was Joe Biden's strategy four years ago, I think it's now becoming Trump's tragic. So it becomes incumbent upon Democrats to elevate Donald Trump.
And it's a strange environment. I still wonder where Earth 2 is right now at this point, because even in strategizing, trying to prepare for 2024, we can't look at what we've done in the past. It's a completely different environment. And part of it, we were talking about this before the show, is that the amount of disinformation that Americans are consuming that does not have a counter narrative of truth is really something that we've never experienced before.
And, you know, doing the work they do is going to be incredibly important. And creating that transparency, because people don't know who to trust or what to trust. And that's something that is really hard to weigh into. The only thing Americans of all strikes have decided not to trust, apparently is George Santos.
Amen to him, jokingly, but it is true. I mean, this is one thing that seems to have united both parties. The likelihood this guy is probably going to be out this year, does it tell us something? Is this a litmus test for that?
It is in fact still possible to go too far off the deep end to unite partisans on both sides to say enough is enough or we have to see what the vote looks like. Absolutely, 100%. This is, it's nice that we are united against removing a person who really should never come to the House in the first place. So the Main street members, we have all the members in New York except him.
They're the ones who put together the legislation, remember him first. Another member of Main street, the chairman of ethics is now this legislation will pass. Do you think the Republicans will get credit for removing Santos at this point or is that ship already sailed? The New York members we hope will get credit because his bad press and who he is is bleeding in their districts.
And with redistricting going on in New York, we winning every vote we can get. There's give us a big picture governing perspective on this. I mean, I talked to him, Hilly, earlier in the hours he's been Congress, I think almost 20 years, maybe more than 20 years. Guys like that are looking for the exits and guys like Dor Santos are clawing their way in to try to stay as long as possible.
Doesn't appear to bode well for the future of our legislative branch. Yeah. Imagine you were a well, thoughtful, nuanced person and you wanted to do public service. Is Congress the place that you would, that you would go to?
I mean, polarization is so extreme you have to hew to positions. There's no incentive to kind of compromise once you get into office. You know as well as I do that it's not a place that's conducive to thoughtful policymaking. You know, policies decided based on truth, social completes.
It's not a place that attracts our best and our brightest, unfortunately, at least in my view. Well, on that happy note, I think we have to wrap things up. Thank you all for coming in. Sarah Andreess, thank you for your maiden voyage on the program today.
We appreciate having you and thank you all for being with us for this hour. I'll be back tomorrow. We'll meet the press now. NBC News Now.
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