Meet the Press NOW — November 4

AI is moving fast across the enterprise, but without visibility, it's just chaos. Different tools, different models, different teams using AI in completely different ways. ServiceNow turns that chaos into control. With the AI control tower, you see all your AI across the business in one place, what it's doing, what it's done and what it's about to do.

So you stay in control. To put AI to work for people, visit servicenow.com Drive off in a new Hyundai launcher today with $0 down during the Hyundai Advantage sales event. Take advantage of the $1,000 spring drive bonus and lease the 2026 laundry essential for just $73 weekly at 4.99% for 60 months. And you're covered by Elantra's best in class five year new car warranty.

Now that's the Hyundai Advantage. Conditions apply. Offer includes 1% loyalty rate reduction for qualifying customers. Visit hyundaicana.com or your local deal for details.

My only purpose in even being here today, get out and vote. You know that. Are we ready to do this? Ready to get out the vote, Ready to win?

If it's Monday, it's election. Even the last full day for both candidates on the trail as Vice President Harris closes the calls for unity and former President Trump doubles down on dark and at times violent campaign rhetoric. Plus, the race for the White House is a dead heat in our final NBC News poll before Election Day as analysts and campaign officials try to make sense of a shocking new poll out of Iowa showing Harris leading Trump in a reliable red state. And it could all come down to Pennsylvania as both candidates hit the Keystone State and Harris crisscrosses the Commonwealth with multiple stops today, including a star studded midnight rally in Philadelph.

Welcome to the press Now. I'm Kristen Welker at NBC News election headquarters in New York on the last full day of campaigning in the 2024 race as the candidates make their final pitch to voters in the most critical battlegrounds. Former President Trump making four stops across three states today as Vice President Harris goes all in on Pennsylvania with four stops across the commonwealth. Speaking this morning In North Carolina, Mr.

Trump surprising the crowd with a new message on immigration and Mexico. If they don't stop this onslaught of criminals and drugs coming into our country, I'm going to immediately impose a 25% tariff on everything they send in to the United States of America. You're the first ones I've told it to. Congratulations, North Carolina, because if that doesn't work, I'll make it 50.

And if that doesn't work I'll make it 75 for the tough council. Now it comes as the former president is also closing these final days with ramped up rhetoric and violent imagery with new attacks against his opponents and also the press. The image of our country is terrible. It's terrible.

It's a failed country. It's a very demonic party. It's become, it's become that way. I have this piece at last here, but all we have really over here is the fake news, right?

And to get me, somebody would have to shoot through the fake news. And I don't mind that so much. I don't mind. I don't mind it.

And if you don't vote, you're stupid. You're stupid. They're terrible people. There's something wrong with them.

Actually a lot of things wrong with them. If she wins, you will live the rest of your life as second class citizens in your own country. Meanwhile, Vice President Harris is closing with a more traditional and cautious approach with appeals for unity while ratcheting down the attacks on her rival. Purposely not mentioning Mr.

Trump by name during an event in Michigan last night, even though she's repeatedly called him out by name as unstable and unhinged over the last week. Today in Pennsylvania, the vice president leaning on that unity message, talking to canvassers in Springton, this whole era of this other guy, you know, but what it's done with all that talk, it's been about trying to have us point fingers at each other and divide each other. It makes people feel alone. It makes them feel like there's nobody standing with them.

As we are getting out the vote, as we are canvassing, let's be intentional about building community, about building community, about building coalitions, about reminding people we all have so much more in common than what separates us now. The shift is coming on the heels of a shocking pull out of Iowa, showing Harris up three points over Trump in a state before President Trump won by eight points in 2020. Helping drive that number, a massive gender gap was Harris up 20 points among women. It comes as our final NBC News poll shows a neck and neck race nationally and a massive gender gap there as well of more than 30 points.

Let's get right to the very latest from both campaigns and from the trail with our NBC News team, Garrett Hage is in Pittsburgh ahead of the former president's event there earlier this evening. Kate Gutierrez is in Allentown, Penny, where the vice president campaigned earlier today. Robert Barrett is in Senior Rapids, Iowa, tracking reaction to that very surprising poll I just mentioned. And Antonia Hilton is in battleground North Carolina, where Mr.

Trump campaigned earlier today. He added new stops in this final stretch. Garrett, let's start with you. It's the very last day of the campaign we heard Mr.

Trump debuting that new message on immigration, essentially promising new tariffs on Mexican goods unless illegal immigration stops. What does that tell you about the view within the campaign and his strategy in these closing hours? Well, look, I can tell you a couple of things, Kristen. First of all, there is no policy problem to Donald Trump that cannot be solved with a skillful application of tariffs.

He's believed this throughout his political career. He's doubled down on it time and time again in this campaign. He did so again today. Second, I think it shows us what we know has always been the case, the ad hoc nature of policy development in Trump world.

It's entirely possible that that policy announcement was new to his campaign staff. I've not seen anything else from the campaign about it today. I've not seen a press release or truth social post. I think, finally, it shows that Donald Trump is still looking for a way to kind of solidify what has been a polling lead on the economy among voters, but to kind of really get the hooks in people, particularly his core supporters who will vote on Election Day, give them one last reason to turn out if they've not been paying attention to his policies thus far, to do so.

Garrett, take us inside the campaign. What's the temperature? What's the mood? Obviously, they are publicly projecting confidence, but what's your indication?

Privately? Yeah, publicly projecting confidence and using publicly available data to do so. President the campaign has yet to open up its internals and show us what their data shows, which I think is the kind of thing that suggests the picture they may be looking at internally isn't as rosy as what they are projecting externally. Now, the former president has been adding events these last couple of days.

We know that he's in North Carolina today. That's a state that his campaign or members of his campaign were telling me as recently as a week or two ago they thought they had in the bag. His behavior and the campaign's rhetoric are not necessarily in alignment here on that conference. I think what we have heard from Trump in the last few days in his interview with Dasha Burns over the weekend and with John Carl of ABC News, a little bit more openness to suggesting a possibility entering his mind that he might lose, which is not the kind of thing that he ever entertains on the campaign trail, certainly not in front of an audience Reading today, he continues to say that the only way he'll lose is by cheating, kind of planting the seeds to dispute yet another election's results.

Yeah. And Garrett, what's notable, of course, that reporting you have comes against the backdrop of this gender gap that we saw in our poll and certainly in that Iowa poll. How concerned is the campaign is Donald Trump about that? Well, look, Donald Trump has kind of personally rejected the idea that he has problems with women.

And others been reporting that he's been asking friends and allies about ways that he might turn it around. The simple reality here is that this ship has already sailed a long time ago. I mean, Donald Trump never made any significant move towards the center or real significant move to reach out to women, except for the program that he floated in an interview with NBC News about paying for IVF treatments for all Americans and then almost entirely dropped from his some speech after that. I think the Trump gender gap view here is that they have to simply maximize the end of the gap that works them.

That's turnout with men jacking it up for them, depressing it with Harris supporters. That's what they've been talking about the campaigns last days. That's what I expect to hear from the former president tonight at Pittsburgh. All right, Garrett Hank, homestretch, thanks so much.

Really appreciate it. Great stuff. Gabe, let me turn to you. Trump is hitting three states today.

The vice president really largely focused on one. Does this all come down to Pennsylvania for her? Yeah, Kristen, she is really all in at this point. Pennsylvania, though, her campaign says that they are focused on all the battleground states and each of them are extremely close.

Now, right behind me, we are getting set to welcome Kamala Harris to this, such an aim. She's set to speak any moment now, but as you said, she's crisscrossing Pennsylvania today. She already stopped earlier today in Scranton. And you alluded to this in your introduction.

She is kind of shifting her message a bit, a more positive message, according to campaign officials, didn't mention Donald Trump by name, just refer to him as this other guy. And she did that also last night in Michigan as well. And we're expecting her here in downtown then to Ready, which will visit a Puerto Rican restaurant. And then larger rallies this evening and tonight in Pittsburgh and in Philadelphia.

Certainly, Chris. And as you know, the most valuable resource of any candidate is their time. And it's easy to see in these closing hours just how critical this campaign feels. The pen.

You're absolutely right about that. And just to follow up on the point you just made, the fact that she's clearly quitting Latino voters, but Rican voters in the wake of that Trump supporter who called Puerto Rico garbage. There is a sense that has backfired on the ground in places like Pennsylvania. What are folks on the ground there in the commonwealth telling you?

You know, Kristen, that's such a good point. And look, I've been seeing Puerto Rican voters for quite a long time, ever since Hurricane Maria. And before that, there has been large frustration among that community that the US Mainland does not pay enough attention to them. The federal government doesn't pay enough attention to them.

Well, I'll tell you, the puerto spoke in line this morning trying to get in this rally. Their sense of frustration was palpable. They were angry. They were outraged at those racist, offensive comments by that comedian at that Madison Square Garden rally.

And they say that it will make a difference here in Pennsylvania. Allentown is a majority Latino cities and 34,000 Puerto Ricans in this town alone. And some of the voters I spoke with said that, look, some of their friends were even considering voting for former President Trump, leaning that direction. But when they heard of those comments, they've now switched to Kamala Harris.

Now that's just anecdotal. We'll see how that plays out tomorrow. Of course, 7% of the vote in pen comes on election day, but that's why the campaign is so focused today, trying to get out there in multiple stops throughout the state and trying to win over that critical that could potentially make a difference in this election. All right, Gutierrez, well done talking over the noise of the event that is getting underway.

I that is not easy. It is a skill. We appreciate you very much and your reporting. Let's over to war buried on the ground in Iowa.

Thanks so much for joining us on this election eve where there was a bit of a political earthquake over the weekend when a very reliable poll came out in Iowa showing Kamala Harris with a lead of three points 47 to 44. This is not a state, quite frankly, where she was competing because it is reliably read. I've been talking to votes inside her campaign. You say, look, we're not expecting to win Iowa per se, but we are encouraged by the fact that she does have a 20 point lead among women voters in that poll.

What are you hearing and what do you think the significance is? Of course, nothing any of us expected. You looking at Iowa at this point in the election cycle. This isn't part of the timeline where we usually look at Iowa.

And it threw the political world for a loop, understandably, because relationally Back in September, the same poll found that Trump was ahead by four points. And so we all in the national media were confused by this poll coming out here. They're talking about. They were surprised by it too.

I want to hear some conversations I have with early voters in my here today and then yesterday in the county as well. Do you see Iowa could vote for Harris maybe. This is what has been historically a swing state between Republican and Democrats. So I'm not going to be shocked if Harris wins the state.

Do you think that could happen here given Trump's strength in the state? I hope so, yeah. It would be kind of unheard of for the state to go that way. But yeah, I'm excited.

I see the polls are leaning that way for Iowa. Now the first voter you heard from voted for President Trump, the second for Kamala Harris. And something that stood out to me in this poll is the fact that senior women and politically independent women were what appears to be driving shift towards Harris. And supporters know that here in Iowa a very strict six week abortion ban took effect this summer.

And so it's likely that that might be something that's driving women to shift to other minds that everyone I talked to about yesterday that mentioned that they were voting for Harris brought up the idea of their concern around reproductive rights as well as the threats of democracy. And so it is an interesting point of conversation at this point in the campaign given that the campaign haven't investigated, they haven't visited here. And so the pollster ourselves, Ann Seltzer with the Joint Register for the Iowa poll pointed out any shift that we're seeing in Iowa is all happening organically. Incredibly fascinating data point with just hours until election Day.

More bear. Thank you so much. Antonio Hill, you are in North Carolina where Trump has now campaigned three days in a row. NBC reporting shows Trump campaign might be just a little nervous about the Tardill state.

It's a really fascinating state. Obviously a Republican gubernatorial candidate is incredibly controversial. There's Democrats haven't won the state since 2008. What are your sources telling you, Antonia, about the state of play?

Well, Kristen, to put it bluntly, they're feeling very bullish now and it's a combination of factors. So first in the beginning of the early voting period, Republicans are coming out strong. In the last few days they start to see the numbers from the black community here in North Carolina and these young Gen Z voters in the college areas, the college towns starting to come out in big numbers. Then the Iowa poll that might not sound like anything to do with North Carolina.

But there are parts of the electorate here that's very similar. And so she's overperforming with white voters here who are similar to white voters in Iowa. That's huge here. And some people have suspected for weeks she might be doing well with white voters here in the state.

Then they have the gender gap. And then Mark Robinson, lieutenant governor running for governor here, enveloped in complete scandal. Many of them see him as dragging down the entire ticket. Take a listen to a conversation I just had with governor right over here.

Do you think it is really looking like 2008? I do. There's a lot of positivity on the ground. There's a lot of energy right now for Kamala Harris.

I was in Charlotte this weekend when she has come, she has lit people up. And of course, 2008, that is a reference to the last time a Democrat was able to flip the state. But we just keep hearing people, they think this moment is the best chance they have seen since then. And what you're seeing kind of behind me here, people starting to come into the field office here in Raleigh.

They're doing filmmaking. They're heading out. They're playing to knock doors. They don't want to get let any of these last few hours today go to waste because they want to see some of these final numbers as big Bush tomorrow.

They think they can get a Soviet person. We will have to wait and see. Antonio Hilton, great reporting. Great interview.

Thank you so much for joining us. We really appreciate it. Good luck over these next 48 hours. We do want to head back to Pennsylvania and dip into Vice President Kamala Harris event downtown Pennsylvania.

Listen in for a few minutes and I am ready to offer that leadership as the next president of the United States of America. Now, Pennsylvania, the race is not yet over. Okay? We got a lot of work to do and we have got to finish strong.

So listen, we got hard work to do. But here's the thing. We like hard work. Hard work is good work.

Hard work is joyful work. And make no mistake, we will win. And one of the reasons we will win is because I do believe when you know what you stand for, you know what to fight for. And we have an opportunity in this election to finally turn the page on a decade of politics that have been driven by fear and division.

We're done with that. We're done and we're exhausted with it. America is ready for a fresh start. And America is ready for a new way forward where we see our fellow American not as an enemy, but As a neighbor, we are ready.

We are ready for a president who understands that the true measure of the strength of a leader is not based on who you beat down. It is based on who you lift up. And Pennsylvania, you know me, I am not afraid of tough fights. Evidently, for decades as a prosecutor in the top law enforcement officer of our biggest state, I won fights against the big banks that ripped off homeowners.

I won fights against for profit colleges that scammed veterans and students. I won fights against predators who abused women and children and seniors and cartels that trafficked in guns and drugs and human beings. We're not going back. And it is my pledge to you.

It is my pledge to you if you give me a chance to fight on your behalf as president. There is nothing. That is vice president speaking in Allentown saying we will win. We will win.

Trying to project confidence. Let's head over to former President Donald Trump, who is speaking in red Pennsylvania, you know, they do it because they love the country. They love it. Thank you very much, Paul.

Thank you. Thank you, everybody. So here are the facts. Oh, I'll bring them up.

Okay, Come on. They all want me to bring them up. There's a lot of love. Come here.

That's former President Trump. They're bringing his family up on stage. You see Don Jr. Lara Trump, of course, one of the co chairs of the rnc, Eric Trump, Tiffany Trump.

We will continue to monitor former President Donald Trump's rally in Pennsylvania, bringing any headlines that come out of that. But for right now, we're gonna keep moving, coming on, making sense of this historic moment and what comes next. We've got reporters in the field, battleground officials, the best analysts in the business, and our bipartisan team of NBC News bolsters. So do not go anywhere and keep it here tomorrow.

We'll have live updates all day tomorrow on NBC News. Now then tune in at 5pm Eastern for special election night coverage as the results come in. You don't wanna miss it. Sit with us.

You're watching Eat the Press. Now drive off in a new Hyundai Launcher today with $0 down during the Hyundai Advantage sales event. Take advantage of the $1,000 spring drive bonus and lease the 202060 linger essential for just $73 weekly at 4.99% for 60 months. And you're covered by Elantra's best in class five year new car warranty.

Now that's advantage. Conditions apply. Offer includes 1% loyalty rate reduction for qualifying customers. Visit.com or your local dealer for details.

Welcome back. As we mentioned it is the final full day of campaigning and neither candidate wants to waste one second. Donald Trump today hitting three battleground states with a rally this morning in North Carolina ahead of two stops on opposite sides of Pennsylvania before closing things out tonight in Grand Rapids, Michigan, the same location of his final rally in 2016 and 2020. As for Vice President Harris, it's all Pennsylvania all day with stops in Scranton, Allentown and rallies in Pittsburgh and Philadelphia.

Joining me now on set is NBC News chief political analyst Chuck Todd, former Arizona Republican senator and Biden administration ambassador to Turkey, Jeff Lake, former HUD secretary under former President Obama and NBC News political analyst Julian Castro, and former chief of staff the vice president, Mike Pence. Mark Short, he is also an NBC News political analyst. Thanks to all of you for being here. We're joking.

This is what the gender gap looks like. We've got it right here on set. Chuck, thank you all for being here. Start us off.

You and I spend a lot of time during campaigns talking about where the candidates are campaigning. What do you make of this final day? Well, I mean, they're just, it's nice to see neither one of them is looking at some fantasy map anymore. Right.

You know, when Hillary Clinton was doing Arizona and Texas and then 2016, those infamous decisions are not in Michigan and Pennsylvania, Wisconsin. The fact they're both, you know, I think it says a lot on her that she's only in Pennsylvania today. Right. Says something to me that the only Sunbelt state he decided he had to go into North Carolina.

You do hear they're nervous about North Carolina because his simplest path to 270 is Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia. And her simplest path is Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan. That's the one state of common. Right.

So where is she living? I mean, it's where she look, she wins at it. Path all over that. Absolutely.

Senator, what do you make of these final stops that we're seeing? And frankly, the final strategy Harris campaign still feels bullish that they can win over skeptical Republicans were skeptical of Trump. Is that wishful thinking at this point? What are you seeing when you watch this?

Rejection First, I'm just pointing some reason. I don't think it's wishful thinking to get Republicans. I think that that is happening, certainly happening in Arizona. It did last time in 2020, and I think it is this time.

I'm campaigning with Liz Cheney. I think that was a brilliant move and I think that that's coming. She's spending her time where she needs to in Pennsylvania. What do you make of what we are seeing.

And where do you think the momentum is right now? Because you saw NBC News bowl. This is a tie ball game. This could go either way.

And you hate to say it because it's a complete cliche down to the ground game. The Harris campaign feels very bullish about their ground game, but it's hard to know what that actually translates to. You know, I was in Nevada, in Las Vegas over the weekend and Neil, park county is so important. They've been behind and they need Clark to come out.

And you saw the power of that ground game. Over 200 people there assembled, ready to go out on canvas. A lot more out in the field. So, yeah, I think she's an adventure.

I like the contrast that she has right now as her closing as positive. I'm going to be present for everyone, optimistic. Also, the bio ad that she put out about, you know, her family, her mother contrasted with the last week for him has been reminding people why they rejected him in 2020. The comments in Madison Square Garden, this weird stuff about, you know, no more vaccines under Robert Kennedy Jr.

Just, I think it's reminding people in a negative way why they didn't say yes again to him four years ago. Mark, you and I spent a lot of time talking about the early vote and whether it matters because the Trump campaign has been touting the fact that more Republicans turning out this year than they have in past cycles. They see that as a sign that Trump is getting more of the early vote. But you say it's a lot more complicated.

I think it is more complicated. I think it's definitely a big plus for Republicans in the Trump campaign. They had that much. But as the senator knows, there were 90,000 Republican voters in Arizona 2016 who did not choose Trump.

They had 60,000 in 2020 who did not. And I think that that Iowa poll shows evidence of more and more potentially 65 above women who are switching. So. So, yeah, it's a good news, but it's a good data point.

But it's in no way conclusive about where this is going to go. I want everyone's take on the Iowa poll, how significant the Harris campaign is. It doesn't mean we're going to win Iowa, but we sure like the numbers when it comes to women voters. Well, that was the big figure, 65 plus white women enthusiastic and voting.

And you can count on those voters to vote, unlike some of the younger people who want to vote, certainly, but they don't, but the older voters do. And the factor, according to this poll that white women are voting in such numbers for Commonwealth. That's a very good sign for Chuck. You know, it's interesting because our poll has looked at what's the top issue?

The economy. No surprise. That's been consistent in every poll. And then we ask what's the issue that motivates you?

And reproductive rights is at the top of that list. What do you make of that? Look, I always this quote from Anna Palmer. She's one of the founders of Punch poll.

She said this after the 26. She says, I don't Republicans win another national election until this is resolved. Until. Until the abortion issue is resolved.

And I remember that's a pretty big blanket statement there. But I understand and it's possible that that is that we're. That is that simple. Right.

When you see this shift in older voters, particularly older women, look, we're gonna have to think as gender. The question is how big is it gonna be. But let's remember this. If Trump pulls this off, it means he got younger men to show up, which is just as significant and also increases our gender gap.

I do think this we are headed to a politics that's gonna be quite uncomfortable if our gender gap is in the thirds. I'll just be honest with this company. It's gonna be a shock to the system. And if the Republican Party loses, one would assume they will do something more booking.

But what if you are able to win and lose women by that margin? What is that gender. What about that? I mean, because Trump in our latest poll is leading with men by more than Vice President Harris is leading with women.

So that's still at least according to our poll and up. They'll fight for her. Yeah, it is. I mean, and I think that, you know, you've seen the Harris campaign also make appeals to men.

Right. And why you should be concerned about these draconian measures on reproductive rights and try and get that crossover support gender wise. So they've made the effort. On the other side though, Trump has it and I think that could make a difference.

Mark, is it overstated to say that Republicans will struggle in national elections until this issue around reproductive rights? I'm not going to see that at all. I think you see Kim Reynolds winning, see Ron DeSantis when you see Brian Kemp win in states. I accept this on a national election.

At the same time, I think the Democrat position, of course on demand for all nine months is what's really outside the mainstream. I don't think Republicans are articulating that well. But you know, Chris and I still feel that you know this is an election that should be a landscape for Republicans with issues really the economy and the border issues at the top of the ticket that 70% of Americans still were heading the wrong direction but when we're talking about fluoride, you know wire we're talking about vaccines, we're talking about you know firing squad Liz Cheney it's like they were not taking advantage of really the opportunity present itself to Republicans denying that he said firing squad but instead it was no arming with the correction only reinforces the weirdness of what you are offering. What are you doing?

Corrections have been a bit of backflips. That is true we should say abortions in later preferences are very rare. If you want to talk about racist racism as other races Chuck, what are you watching for one of the interesting races is in Texas obviously we're watching Ohio. Montana seems like it could be a done deal.

I'll just say two quick things I want to hear from other people's comments here too. One is I think Ohio House and we'll tell us how accurate this cells are polls if whites are doing this I think the first place we'll see it because it's the earlier poll close just saying that's the first place to check to see is she out of something because If Harris is 5 he loses Ohio by 5 or less. That's how she Brown wins. So that would tell us something.

The second thing is how big is how many Trump voters just show up vote Trump and leave the fall off number for I've talked to Senate Republican who are nervous about this that this explains why San Brown is behind this explains why in Nevada this explains why how these things be a porn or two behind this explains why Rogers is pointed behind. I think McCormick is the one that's found away because he's got so much money in Pennsylvania. So that's the second thing. Okay fascinating.

Senator what about you who knows this turf? Well I remember in 2012 talking about these issues of reproductive rights issues that was a Toddhegan legitimate rape. I can tell you as a Senate candidate that shaved two or three points off of any Republican Senate. Wow.

So this seems difficult in Arizona the issue this one should be a Republican Senate seat Kerry Lake and Ruben Gail running for. If you're in Arizona and you have an R behind your name you're running statewide that should be enough. If you're running for mine inspector and you don't say anything about who won the last election or whatever else but as soon as you're running for mine inspector. And you say, I think Donald Trump really won the last election.

You'll lose. And that's where we are right now. And Kerry Lake is on track, too. Fascinating point because it also underscores Trumpism doesn't work for other candidates as well as it works for Trump.

What are you going to be watching for? What I would not be shocked if Cruz loses consistently. He has not hit 50%. He's like between three and four points ahead.

But what Chuck mentioned, I think a lot of folks are going to go and vote for Trump in 2020. For the 2020 elections, the first election Republicans strip straight ticket ballot voting so people can. They have to literally vote for everybody individually. I think people give a lot of Republicans to vote for Trump.

And then. That's right. Interesting final point to you, Mark. I think something Chuck and I talk about is the House.

I think the reality is that people convention wasn't misdemeanor. The president's gonna carry the House. I don't think that's true. I think that Trump has been, has been eroding some advantages in minority communities that Democrats have had.

But he's bleeding badly in the suburbs, which is where the competitive districts are. So he may cut into the vantage in Philadelphia. It helps you win statewide. That doesn't help you in those districts of Republican joy need.

I think that's a concern for House. Fascinating. All right, great conversation. We can continue it all hour, but unfortunately we're out of time.

Really appreciate you all being here on this election eve. Chuck, Jeff, William and Mark, great conversation. Coming up next, a deep dive at the battle around Pennsylvania with a current Keystone State House member and a former senator. You're watching the press now.

Stay with us. You know, if we win Pennsylvania, me, if we win Pennsylvania, we win the whole boulevard. It's over. Welcome back.

That was former President Trump last hour in Reading, Penn. Ahead of staff later this evening in Pittsburgh. Both campaigns know just how crucial the Keystone State is. With me now is Congressman Brendan Boyle, Democrat from Pennsylvania.

Congressman, thanks so much for joining me. I really appreciate it. Happy to be with you again. Well, happy to have you here.

Happy election eve. You are there on the ground in one of the most important states in this entire presidential race. How are you feeling about the state of the race right now? Well, in a bipartisan spirit, I'm going to start off by surprisingly agreeing with Donald Trump on only one thing.

And that is, yeah, I do think Pennsylvania is, as he said, the whole ball game. I think that whichever side wins here and it' electoral votes for the biggest battleground state. I think that that will likely clinch the path to 270 needed in order to get to the White House. That was the case in 2016, and that was also the case in 2020 when the race was called here in Pennsylvania, that beautiful warm Saturday morning.

That was actually the presidential election. Now, in terms of where things stand at the moment, it's always predestined to be close here, as it was in 2016 and 2020. Both were one point races or even under that. I think we're in the same kind of race again this time.

But I would rather be Kamala Harris and her campaign than the Trump campaign, especially these final 72 hours or so when it mostly comes down to field and got. Well, let me ask you about to get out the vote effort because a lot of it I know, and I'm talking to folks who are involved in it, has been focused not just on getting out the vote, but making sure that the Latino community is coming out to vote. Particularly in the wake of those comments made by the comedian at that venomous Square Garden for former President Trump when he disparaged Puerto Rico and Puerto Ricans. I am told anecdotally that there is a sense that Latinos and frankly, people throughout the state of Pennsylvania were really offended by that comment.

What are you hearing? Because Trump had made some real inroads with the Latino community. Has anything shifted based on what you're hearing? Well, first, and you know, being from here, that there's a pretty large Puerto Rican population in Philadelphia.

It's mostly my congressional district, district in North Philly, east of Broad street, approximately 115,000 Puerto Ricans in Philadelphia. People either born on the island or first generation born here, but have parents and grandparents who were born there. In addition to Philadelphia, you also have a large Puerto Rican population in Allentown. And in Reading, I'm always amazed at what actually breaks through the noise and reaches people who generally don't follow politics.

Boy, that garbage comment at the Madison Square Garden festival, hate, as I call it, but the rally that he had about a week ago, I'm just amazed the way that spread like wildfire and has spread throughout the Puerto Rican community. I heard about it almost instantaneously from a number of people I'm friends with who were texting me who weren't necessarily political. So I do think that again, in a one point race, something like this can make the difference, especially when you consider, all told, we're talking about half a million Puerto Ricans being the population of Pennsylvania. That's just fascinating that you think it has resonated that quickly and that significantly.

I want to ask you about one of the headwinds facing Vice President Harris, which is the approval rating, quite frankly, of President Biden right now, former President Trump. According to our latest NBC News poll, his retroactive job approval rating is higher than Biden's. And Congressman, it is higher than at any point in Donald Trump's presidency. What do you make of that and what are the implications for the vice president?

There's no question that this is a change election that voters want to see change. The right track, wrong track. Figures that released over the weekend show it by an almost 50 point margin. Now, what's interesting is that Kamala Harris has actually been talking about change.

By some polling I've seen, she is now winning narrowly over Donald Trump in terms of which candidate best represents change. She has prosecuted the case that Donald Trump is the same tired, stale, old routine for almost a decade now, and people are sick of it and want to turn the page and move on. So I think there are many things that her campaign has done well. That and winning the argument on change is probably the single thing that she's done the best.

And I think we'll look back on this, particularly if she were to win. Well, Congressman Boyle, we always appreciate your perspective. Thank you so much for joining us. Really appreciate it.

Please stay safe over these next 2448 hours. We really appreciate it. And now from the view from the other side of the aisle on this critical battleground, I'm joined by Pat Toony, former Republican senator from the great state of Pennsylvania. Thank you for being here.

Great to see you. So let me ask you, what do you make of how former President Trump is closing out this race? A lot of folks have noticed his rhetoric does seem to be getting darker. He's not focused on what some of his allies have told me they want to hear.

Focus on the economy and immigration. Yeah, no, I think he's there's been kind of two campaigns. We have seen it. He look at his paid advertising.

It's on message, often very effective. And it's all about pressing the case against Harris for the Biden administration. She was part of completely legitimate, aggressive and effective. But Donald Trump doesn't have the self discipline to deliver that message.

He can't resist the temptation to rehearse all of his grievances, to make the personal insults, to go wandering down all kinds of cul de sacs. I think that's been the story of his campaign. It seems to have gotten worse in the final weeks of the campaign. But.

But it's not shocking. That's the nature of the campaign. How does it play in Pennsylvania where, as we've laid out in 10 different ways, each of these candidates needs Pennsylvania very, very hard to get the math to work if you're not Pennsylvania for either of them. Look, I think it's.

It's not the most effective message. Right. The most effective message would be to contrast people's perception of good economic times and a relatively peaceful world versus what people believe is not such great economic times and certainly not a peaceful world. He's got other issues, but it ought to be about driving that case against tariffs.

What do you make of the Trump ground game in Pennsylvania? Because by all accounts, our reporting suggests it has been outsourced to Elon Musk's super pac. That it's not sort of this coordinated effort being driven directly by the campaign itself. Yeah, it's a D.

I can't judge it in advance. We'll have to see what happens. But I think Harris, Harris campaign has had far more resources on the ground for get out the vote efforts. And when you sub this out, you're taking chances.

Just to be very clear, this is significant. You're saying this because you've seen this, you've experienced this in Pennsylvania. That is my understanding. My understanding is that the Harris campaign has put more money into get out the vote resources.

But I'm not close to either campaign. Let's talk about this shock poll, if you will, out of Iowa. The Harris campaign says, we don't think we're going to win Iowa. However, they're looking closely at the 20 point gender gap.

They think it's significant because we're talking about older women and more independent women. What did you make of this Iowa poll? Even if it's an outlier, even if the top lines are an outlier, there seems to be some potential. I'm not so sure.

I think it's an outlier that could probably be dismissed if. I mean, at this point it's too late to see if it could be repay. We'll find out tomorrow. That really matters.

You know, polling is more difficult now than it's ever been. I think we still don't know and we won't know for a little while whether the pollsters have recalibrated correctly the amount of people they have to call in order to get the demographics met within the subset of people that actually respond. Very, very challenging. And then of course, you have A hurting tally.

Right. As you get close to the election, no pollster wants to be the outlier. So I just, I just think we don't know, not make it too much of it. Let me ask you about the all important Senate race in Pennsylvania.

You have your eyes focused on that as well. What are you anticipating? What's the state of play there? Senator Casey looking for a fourth term, but getting a robust challenge from David McCormick.

And full disclosure. So I wrote in Nikki Haley on my ballot and I voted for Republicans all the way down that slit ticket. Slit ticket voter. Yeah.

Well, but not in part. 15% of Republican primary voters voted for Nikki Haley after she had withdrawn from the race. So that's, that's interesting. But your question about McCormick's great one.

For me, the highest priority is Republican control of the Senate by the biggest possible margin. And I think Dave McCormick has run a pretty much a perfect campaign. I can't think of a single thing I would have had him do differently. He's a great candidate.

He's run a great race. He's had the resources to get his message across, and he is consistently easily within the margin of error. Bob Case has been below 50. Bob case is a very pleasant guy.

I got along with him well in the Senate, but I don't think he's a terribly strong candidate. And he had the good fortune of running in good Democrat years in the past. Like this is a much more even year. So I think, I think McCormick is pretty likely to pull this out.

Okay, you heard the prediction here, Senator, we're out of time. But just yes or no, was it a mistake that Trump did not campaign with Nikki Haley based on what you just said? Absolutely. Yeah.

Okay. All right. Senator Pat, Jimmy, thank you so much for being here. We really appreciate your perspective.

Coming up after the break, we are on the ground of battleground Michigan as the Harris campaign makes its final push to win over the state's Arab American and Muslim voters. You're watching with the press now. Welcome back. Let's get the very latest from another critical battle from state Michigan.

That's where Vice President Harris rallied supporters yesterday and where former President Trump will close his campaign tonight in Grand Rapids as he's done every presidential campaign. Joining me now is Yasmin Vesuvian, who spent the day in Dearborn, Michigan. Michigan. Yasmin, thanks so much for joining us.

We really appreciate it. Of course, Dearborn is an area that has a very large population of Arab American, Muslim voters. What are you hearing from that community? You have been back and forth to Michigan a number of times now.

Yeah, I have. And I think, you know, it's interesting. There has been kind of a progression of the opinion of a lot of these Arab American voters since obviously February when the primary happened. About 100,000 voters voted on committed at the time.

And since then, you know, we've seen a progression of their opinions. And I think it speaks to kind of what Governor Whitman got to today earlier when I was speaking with her, which is that the African American community is on monolith and they don't all vote the same way. Many of the people I've been speaking to so far today are voting third party, right. Because they are one issue voters.

They are voting based on the Gaza war. And they have said, and I quote with my conscience, I cannot vote for Kamala Harris because she represents the Biden administration, administration's decision that they made when it comes to the Gaza war. However, Governor Whitman Weiss spoke a little bit earlier, believes that the African American community does not vote in modeling that there is a diversity of opinion and decisions to vote. Take a listen to what she had to say earlier today, Kristen, and then we'll talk to the other side, the vice president do what she needs to do.

You know, she has acknowledged the pain that the community is feeling. And we're talking about the Muslim community as well as the Arab American and Palestinian. They're not all one and the same, but also the pain that the Jewish community is feeling. Racism are always closer to me.

They just always are. And it's not gonna be one community or another that is, you know, to credit for a success or to blame for her coming up short. So people take race. We're looking at 200,000 voters.

They're registered, active voters that could feasibly, by the way, if you look at the margins here in Michigan, right, that could swing a separate. See, the Harris campaign is making a gamble. First and foremost, they're making a gamble on that. They're betting that the female Cerber is going to turn out drones for them due to reproductive rights.

And where they feel is that many women stand on record rights in the state. And the governor, by the way, governor is making that bet as well. And lastly, they're betting on the quiet vote. They're betting on American voters basically going to the polls and pulling the lever for Harris at the end of the day.

All right. Well, yes, we've been all over that state and the story. Thank you so much. We really appreciate it.

Reporting a great interview with the governor. Well, everyone wants to know who's gonna win the White House? Well, let's turn out of two people who have the next best thing to a crystal ball, our MDC News pollsters. Bill McInth is a Republican pollster and Jeff Horwood is a Democratic pollster and they conducted our NBC News poll, all of our NBC News polls.

Thank you for being here. Thank you for helping me navigate this campaign season. But let me start with you. You Is there anything that surprised you about the fact that this race is a tie ball game?

Well, it's a surprise in this way, which is our last two full RBCs have been downtown Trump's high water mark in all of our polling going back to 2016. And I think we're also surprised by the gender gap, the education gap, the ideology gap. People tell us they want to see a less divided America. Not this, not this election.

That's not what happened. We're pulling further apart. Jeff, what about that and what surprised you? So one of things that surprised me is again the gender gap and particularly white cause, educated women and how important they're going to be determined of this election.

And they've gone from 54% voting for Biden in 2020 to 56 in 22 and now 62% in this in our latest poll. And speaking of closing how important this last week is, I was also struck by the what people are hearing and by 13 points, people are less favorable to what they're hearing from Donald Trump since going back to 2008. Whoever sort of lost that battle for that last week in terms of reconfirmation has ended up losing the election. And you know what's so interesting, and we were talking about this with our reporters retroactively, Trump's approval rating is higher than it was when he was in office.

And of course it's higher than President Biden's right now. What do you make of that? It's what the Biden has a 43% job approval, guess what, 20% inflation during your time in office. 10, 8 or 10 million people, 8 million illegal people in the country.

It's not a record that people are happy when they say his policies have hurt them. And looking back, they recall a good economy under Trump and that's the reason he's so competitive in this race. Let's look at some of the issues. Continues to lead on abortion.

Trump has a double digit lead on which candidate better handle the economy as we're talking about the cost of living and the border. And I guess one of the questions that we're gonna get the answer to tomorrow. Jeff, I'll start with you. Is the economy still the top issue?

Is that the top issue that driving voters to the polls? The economy is one of the issues facing the country. But we asked our single issue voter question, which we asked in our early October poll. Abortion was the most important issue for our single issue voting issue.

And so that's been sort of, it's fundamentally changed our politics since the 2020 Dodge ruling. And I think we're something we're looking for in Election Day as well, is how much that pushes voters and how upset they are by that ruling. This was so important in terms of the data point, though, because you basically changed the way you asked this question, which really gave us, I think, a deeper understanding of how the reproductive rights issue may or may not factor in. Yeah, that's a great question.

And, but you know, what we don't talk about enough is abortion, 19%, immigration, border security. And Trump was winning those voters by a bigger margin than he was losing the abortion voters. So your question, they sort of net out. And when you ask people what message, ask Trump voters what message they want to send with their vote, it's all about immigration, border security, and this notion about making sure that we get our country back.

Really powerful drive for Trump voters. Yeah, indeed. Zooming out a little bit, when you tried to gauge how excited people are for this election, how engaged they are, what did you find? This is actually our second lowest interest in the election, our last track.

And there are a lot of key coalition groups that have the lowest interest that we've had. I don't think we're going to see 160 million votes we saw in 2020. And we have a very unpredictable composition in the electorate. What do you make of that?

Why do you think that interest has gone down in that way, Jeff? Well, I think part of it is the direction of the country. I think that people are looking for change. And that's sort of, I think what we're dealing with.

It is, Bill is quite right that this is lower than we've seen historically. There's also been an increase over the last month for black voters, increase in interest in the election, and also sort of coalescing around for Harris here. And so I think two things are going on. Yes, interest is lower, particularly for younger voters, which I think is going to be really important, that point this year.

But also we are seeing some increases as we get to Election Day. Bill, if Trump wins, how does he do it? Based on the polling you're seeing, he does it because he changes the vote among Latino Americans and he is going to lose Latinos but by a much narrow margin, 20 point net difference compared to 2020. He's also going to make sure that a lot of young men who are marginal voters go vote.

And we do this and we track this in the early stage of party registration and we have more Republicans who are low interest voters voting early than Democrats. That's of unheard heard of. So Trump has always won by changing the composition electorate. It's really fascinating and we are seeing some of that play out in early voting.

Jeff, if Harris wins, how does she do it? Yeah. So she does it by continuing to build upon the desire for reproductive freedom and also on democracy as an issue we haven't talked about here. But it's super important this election because it goes beyond just the abortion issue, but also just rights in general, making sure that people still have those rights.

Health care is a really important issue in this election. We're seeing in the last week or so the Affordable Care act become more of an issue. So it's building upon that and it's desire to protect the rights that people have which when people have a right, they don't like to lose it. And that's what we're dealing with in selection.

Just a bill. Great conversation again, to people who have helped all of us understand where this campaign stands throughout the course of the past year. Thank you so much. I really appreciate, appreciate it and thank you for being here.

I'm back tomorrow with a special edition of Meet the Press Now. And after that, special prime time coverage starting at 5pm Eastern as the first exit polls and then the first results come in. You do not want to miss it. The news continues with Hallie Jackson right now.

Hey, it's Kate Snow, NBC News anchor and host of the Drink. This month, Demi Lovato is my guest. The global superstar tells me that she is the happiest she's ever been right now. But getting there, it wasn't simple.

Demi opens up about starting in Hollywood young and why she now thinks she may have started too soon. She talks about recovery, her new marriage and the deeply personal reason behind her new cookbook. The Drink is always about the journey to the top. And this was an honest conversation about what that takes.

Hope you listen and follow the Drink wherever you get your podcast.