Meet the Press NOW – November 7

Welcome to a special edition of Beat the Press, now coming to you live from sunny Miami, Florida, as five Republican candidates prepare to take the stage here tomorrow night in the third Republican presidential primary day, hosted by NBC News. I'm Gary Hage inside our NBC studios at Telemundo. But before the candidates take the stage here in Miami tomorrow, tonight is election night. Control room, the music please.

Ah, there it is. Right now, voters across the country are headed to the polls in statewide races that will give us critical insights into the national political environment, especially on the issue of abortion just one year out from the 2024 presidential election. Let's break down tonight's biggest contest, starting with Virginia, where every seat in the General assembly is up for grabs. Democrats in the state have leaned heavily in the messaging around protecting abortion rights.

If Republicans would control the vote chambers, they could pass Governor Yelkins legislative agenda, which includes a 15 week ban on abortion. In Ohio, abortion access is literally on the ballot as voters weigh in on a ballot measure that would enshrine abortion rights in the state's constitution. A measure, legalized racial marijuana is also on the ballot there today. And both parties will also be watching a pair of high profile governors races tonight for clues about the relative strength or weakness of their national party brands.

In Mississippi, Governor Tate Reeves is hoping that his position as an incumbent Republican and the fact that there's an unpopular Democrat in the White House is enough to make voters overlook a multi million dollar welfare scandal that has embroiled his administration. And in Kentucky, Democratic Governor Andy Beshear is attempting to fend off the challenge by Republican Daniel Cameron, the state's current attorney general who's been endorsed by former President Trump. Governor Bashir is fairly popular among Kentucky residents. That's no easy feat in a red state that went for Trump by 26 points back in 20.

But he's up against a challenging environment nationally for Democrats. Democratic strategists told NBC News that the Biden campaign is a quote, five alarm fire as the president's approval rating drops below 40% in multiple polls. Three of my NBC News colleagues are on the ground at polling places across the country. Gushack Bruce, Louisville, Kentucky, Priscilla Thompson is in Columbus, Ohio.

And Gary Grumback is on the ground in Richmond, Virginia. So Shaq, I'll start with you. This is probably the most high profile of these races tonight. Incumbent Andy Beshear trying to hang on to this seat against Republican Daniel Cameron.

Cameron seemed to get some momentum in some recent polling there. But how close is this race expected to be well, when you listen to both campaigns, Garrett and advisors to the campaigns, they're saying they expect this to be close. Look, in 2019, Andy Beshear won with just 5,000 votes, and that was an environment that was beneficial to Democrats. Now he's taking on a challenger who's been backed by former President Trump.

Former President Trump leaning into that endorsement, Daniel Cameron, really using that endorsement in television ad. They had a telephone, town hall, a rally yesterday. And Cameron's also using President Biden's unpopularity to hit Andy Beshear. So much so Garrett, that it's not only a topic of ads, but it's one of his central messaging points.

He wants voters who sided with Bashir, who may like Bashir personally, to come back home essentially, to the Republican Party. And Garrett. And at least one of the conversations I had, it seemed to have worked. I want you to listen to someone who told me they voted for Bashir in 2019, but this time they're voting for Cameron.

How does your opinion on Joe Biden influence your vote for governor? A little bit. I mean, I'm not. I will not vote for him in the general election.

I'm not saying who I will vote for. There could be others. But I think that some of his policies obviously weigh on you a little bit. But I try not to let that perception sway me from a state level, just as I didn't let the thing with Trump and how he was camera.

That didn't sway my vote. That wasn't what was going to make a difference for me. Now, Garrett, I did talk to one lady who said she doesn't always vote in elections like these, but she really appreciated Governor Bashir's response to Covid, his response to some of the natural disasters that the state has been dealing with, from flooding to multiple tornadoes. And that compels her to make sure that she came out to the polls today.

Which side wins out? Well, we'll have about two hours, two and a half hours to find out. Garrett, most tornadoes really put Bashir on the national stage. Talk a little about how the Cameron campaign is approaching this strategically.

You mentioned pushing the Trump endorsement out. Is it just all about trying to make Bashir into a generic Democrat or try to turn him into Joe Biden? That's definitely part of it. But he's really, really leaning into that endorsement that he got from former President Trump.

I mentioned some of his closing ads feature him literally looking at a television of a news reporter talking about Trump endorsing him in the election. You have Cameron also leaning into the culture wars. He talks a lot on the campaign trail about transgender rights and transgender men in sports or transgender women in women's sports. That's one of his top issues on the campaign trail.

And he hits Bashir again, saying he's a nice enough guy, but he sided with Joe Biden, so that means he's bad for Kentucky. He's really trying to nationalize, as you see Bashir trying to localize this race as much as possible. All right, let's jump across the river now to Priscilla, who's up in Ohio. And, Priscilla, you've got two big ballot measures today on abortion and on marijuana.

These are typically issues that drive people to the polls. Is that what you're seeing there today? Yeah. Garrett.

Well, we have certainly spoken to voters who have a lot of strong opinions about those two measures, which is not surprising, because there's been a ton of money on both sides, on advertisements, on television, and also this grassroots organizing around these issues. But I gotta tell you, every voter that I've spoken to here has said that they are a yes on both the abortion rights issue and the marijuana issue. For some women saying that abortion issue is personal, there are others who say they just don't want the government butting in on what they're doing with their bodies. I also spoke to one man who said that this just seems like an amendment that makes sense.

I want to play a little bit of that conversation. Well, I personally feel that the issue, number one should be passed, and, you know, we. We get some rules for abortion. What do you hope that being passed will do here in Ohio?

I think that'll send it back to the legislature, and they will have to set. Put more rules in it. Okay. This is a constitutional amendment that preserves it, but you still have to incorporate it.

And just to be clear on what he's talking about there, this amendment would give folks the right to abortion in China in the Constitution, but it would also allow the state legislature to limit abortions after the point of fetal viability. So around 22 to 24 weeks. And so largely seen as potentially a model that states can use in 2024, when this issue is expected to be on the ballot at least seven other states. Garrett voter there today as we look for clues about 2024.

You're in the Ramaswami's home district today. Any surprises from him? That's right. He was here to vote, and I asked him about both of those issues, and his answers weren't surprising.

He said that he was a no on both of them voting no on the legalization of marijuana because he feels like it's a federal issue. But he says it's a conversation that he's open to having. And he voted no on the abortion amendment because he says that while it is up to the states, he feels like the states have to get it correct. And he says Ohio has not gotten it correct despite the fact that 57% of voters in a poll from last month said that they are in favor of enshrining this in the in the state constitution.

And so that is what he has to say on both of those issues. Garrett. All right, Gary Grumbach now, Grumbach, we're watching Virginia closely as a potential bellwether for 2024. The strength of abortion is an issue particularly for Democrats here.

We in this business love obsessing over Virginia off your elections. What are you watching tonight in these state assembly races that are going to put the picture together for us? Sure. Well, I've got two pieces of new information that may not be radio news.

One, we just talk to election officials inside this particular polling place here in Henriko county, north Richmond. They say they're seeing turnout Today in this 300 person precinct they haven't seen in more than a decade. So that could be good news for Democrats in terms of turnout. What's coming out there?

The other thing I've heard was from statewide Democratic sources telling me they're feeling very confident about taking the state Senate. And that's something Governor Glenyun has been trying to really push in a hundred different events all over the state, trying to hold the House and flip the state Senate in his favor because of that big issue that Rossell is talking about, the issue of abortion. He's been very clear in interviews about what he wants to do about this. He wants a 15 week abortion ban with exceptions in the case of Raven incestant and the life of the mother.

But he's not talking about that on the campaign trail. In fact, you won't hear that at all if you were at any of his events over the past week from the stage or even from the candidates on the stage here in Henico County. One of the Republican candidates, candidates for state senate, is an OBGYN herself. She doesn't mention the issue at all.

So it's really become a conversation about the messaging as it relates to abortion, whether it's a ban or a winner. Garrett. All right, Shaq, Priscilla, Gary, thank you all for getting us started on a big day in politics. And joining me now is a guest who needs no introduction on this program.

Hey, it's Chuck Todd. Chuck, what are you watching for today? Start actually voting. I know, I know.

We do these around here. Tuesday voters voting. What are you looking for? Absolutely.

Look, it's what you're talking about here, right? How salient is the abortion issue still? We know the Democratic brand right now. People's feelings about politics, people's feelings about the economy are things that without the abortion issue, this would probably be a bad night for Democrats.

But the abortion issue certainly has made it. Where, I mean, I, you know, hearing similar reports out of Virginia myself. We know likely where things are headed in Ohio. I mean, really, some ways Kentucky's the coin flip here.

I mean, a Bashir loss is on Biden and a Bashir win is on Bashir. It may not be fair to Biden and the Democrats if that's what that outcome would foretell there. But it's pretty clear that Bashir has sort of has done everything else that it takes to win on his own national environment would be the only thing not going his way. So if he lost, it would be the thing most people would point to.

So let's break these out a little bit and start Virginia, because I think this is the one that a, we kind of junkies are most upset with because it's in our backyard. Everybody in D.C. has been watching the ads for months and months. But how do you put together kind of the mosaic of all these individual races and it truly all united around the abortion rights issue that seems overly simplistic.

I think that'll be the lesson that folks try to learn out of whatever happens tonight. Well, I think also there's a real reason for it. You know, unlike the other places where abortion has been issued here, Glenn Youngkin has drawn a line. Right.

That he's willing to, to defend 15 weeks. Right. That's right. In some of these other places.

So this is a real test of 15 weeks. You and I both hear from various Republican pollsters who swear, hey, 15 weeks is acceptable to the public. And I always try to correct some of these pollsters. Acceptable doesn't always mean preferable.

And I think that's the, that to me, is one thing I think we're learning out here. But if this were a statewide election, you'd say Democrats and Northern Virginia could power things and make it really good night for Democrats. But most of these swing races are not in Northern Virginia. They're in the Virginia beach and Norfolk media market.

They're in the suburbs of Richmond where the, you know, the Northern Virginia Democrat is really worried about Donald Trump. Right. And it gets them fired up. And even the chaos in the congressional and the House speaker business had an impact on voters in Northern Virginia.

But the farther south you get in the state, the less the national environments involved there. So this is why there could be a huge, huge turnout of Democrats in Northern Virginia, and we could end up with a status quo result. Democrats hold the Senate, Republicans hold the assembly, and Glenn Youngkin takes the red vest off and doesn't run for president. Boom, lick goes away.

Let's talk about Kentucky now. So I'm kind of with you on this one. This feels like a test of Joe Biden as much as it is a test of Andy Bashir. I almost called him Steve Bashir, but that speaks to his advantages, right?

He's the son of a governor there, too. Does he just have to completely run away from the Democratic brand there? And I'm always fascinated by these surveys that we see that show these Democratic governors in red states and vice versa, outperforming so substantially their party. I mean, is that the alchemy for this, for Bashir tonight, just be.

But it isn't generic Democrat or just not be Democrat at all? Well, in fairness, he has his own brand. And you just, in some ways, you just, you stumble upon him when you said Steve Bashir. Right.

The Bashir Democratic brand is a moderate Democratic brand to Kentucky voters. Right. You heard it in the interviews that Jack was having with a couple of voters there. There is a distinct brand to Bashir's Democratic values versus the perception of the national values on that.

But look, we're also seeing a test of just how important Trump is. You know, there's a fascinating issue both in Mississippi and Kentucky, where the late deciding Republicans that have not yet gotten off the undecided column are those that love Trump the most. His voters are very much sort of late in tuning and late deciding. It's very similar to young voters.

And African American voters usually are tuned in late. You know, sometimes it's later engagement by campaigns we saw. Same thing here. I am wondering, though, are TV ads enough and will Tate Reeves or Daniel Cameron wish they actually brought Trump to their states?

And if there's a runoff in Mississippi, I promise you, we will see Trump. Oh, yeah. We only have 30 seconds left, but I'd be remiss not to hit Mississippi a little bit harder here because this is one that Republicans might lose simply from taking their eye off the ball here a little bit. And how likely is it that the one deep south governor's mansion just bumps over from Louisiana to Mississippi at the end of the day?

Well, it's, look, this is a case where it's sort of there are permanent rules to politics that matter in statewide races. And when one party's held a governor's mansion for two decades, you're going to be vulnerable. Right. They're trying for their, you know, they've had the governor's mansion for 20 years.

All I have to say is the word Brett Favre and welfare scandal. And I'm sure some people say, oh, yeah, well, that's been used by Brendan Presley. Yes. One of those Presleys, for those wondering, has been used as a way to say, hey, look what happens when one party's in office for a long time.

So I will tell you this. If Pressley wins or if this heads to a runoff, this is more about sort of a standard voter fatigue with one party rule that we've seen in Kansas, we've seen in Maryland, we've seen in Massachusetts. Any of these solid blue or solid red states that do elect somebody from the other party that would explain this. All right.

All right, Chuck, we gotta leave it there. We'll see if Brett Favre manages to rack up one last post career loss, a rare skill for a quarterback. Interceptions. It is last two throws, one for the packers and one for the Vikings.

Don't think I don't know that. I'm sure you do. All right, Chuck McGly, always good to have you on on election day. We'll see you back here tomorrow to break down what happens tonight.

But coming up next, new developments on the front lines of the Israel Hamas war after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu indicated an Israeli occupation, Gaza is now possible. Plus, five Republican presidentials are set to face off here in Miami tomorrow night. And time is running out if they want to make a run at front runner Donald Trump. A preview of the big night ahead.

You're watching THE PRESS Net. Welcome back. Today marks exactly one month since Hamas brutal and horrifying October 7th terrorist attack on Israel. And as the Israeli military now pushes further to Gaza to root out Hamas, Israeli leaders and their allies are facing renewed questions about the sustainability of the conflict, including what happens after the invasion and who will control Gaza if Hamas government is taken out.

In a new interview, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu suggested that Israel would ultimately bear that responsibility. I think Israel for an indefinite period will have the overall security responsibility because we've seen what happens when we don't have it, when we don't have that security responsibility what we have is the eruption of Hamas terror on a scale that we couldn't imagine. Now those comments come after President Biden's warned Israel that occupation of Gaza would be a mistake. US has pushed for humanitarian pauses to allow aid in and to get civilians out as Israel's bombardment of Gaza continues and the humanitarian crisis on the ground worsens.

The US has also suggested applause allow time for efforts to free the hundreds of hostages still held by Hamas. Netanyahu has been reluctant to agree to any cease fire until all of the hostages are released. But yesterday he discussed the possibility of tactical pauses with President Biden, according to White House read out of that conversation. This comes to the families of the passages remain desperate for any news about their loved ones.

Some of those families speaking on Capitol Hill today pleading for help. I'm here because it's been 30 days. Every day is like eternity to me and I can't wait any longer because I know that he was shot. We have no clue what's to them.

We only know that they are in Gaza. We don't know if they're injured, if they are together, if they're still alive. Joining now from Israel's NBC's Josh Letterman. So Josh, what's the reaction been Israel to Netanyahu's comments that the country could potentially occupy Gaza for an indefinite period?

The reaction is, Garrett, that it sounds a lot like occupation, which was the state of things in the Gaza strip prior to 2005 when Israel unilaterally withdrew from Gaza. It's raising a lot of questions about whether that is an endeavor that Israel wants to be participating in and what that would mean frankly for security in the state of Israel. But another element of this, Garrett, is we're hearing this from Prime Minister Netanyahu. It's hard to find anyone in Israel right now who confidently thinks that Netanyahu is going to be in power for that much longer after this war is over, given how his popularity has plummeted, given the profound question about the failures of his government and the security apparatus here to deter and prevent the terror attacks that we saw one month ago today.

And so ultimately it may not be up to Netanyahu to make this decision, but in the meantime, we're seeing a torrent of opposition to any idea of a long term Israeli occupation of the crazy strip, including now coming from the U.S. government. Yeah, I mean his whole political brand was built on the idea of being the one person who could keep Israelis safe. Josh, I feel like there's some semantic differences here between a tactical Pause and a humanitarian pause.

But either way, we're pushing for one and getting kind of offered another. The US Is. Are we seeing some limits here on what the US Influence actually is with the Israelis as Blake and others are conducting these conversations? Well, we certainly are in that the US hasn't gotten what it wanted to out of Israel so far.

But on the other hand, I think some people have been surprised at how willing Netanyahu has been to at least entertain the US Ideas, to at least say that he's open and still discussing some of these ideas. And when it comes to these limited tactical pauses that he's been talking about, I think what the Israeli government is trying to do now is to claim that these few hours where they are saying we won't bomb the Salah Al Din highway out of Gaza Strip, that they want people to evacuate from work, Gaza to south, using that road, that that counts as these kind of short term tactical causes when we know in fact what the US Is calling for? It's something very different than that. They want to actually see a long enough positive airstrikes probably across all of the Gaza Strip that they can start to get hostages out, that they can get humanitarian aid, and they can get civilians like the American citizens who are in the Gaza Strip out.

That is very different than what Netanyahu appears to be trying to say he's open to right now. 400 or so Americans evacuated out, according to US official target, NBC News. Josh, there's more complicated question here about how the politics in Gaza are affected by this too. Right.

And the idea that an Israeli occupation even being discussed might make Gazans less likely to evacuate. They're worried about getting pushed out of the little territory they have left. What do we know about how that kind of language affects the internal debate that Gazans are having, the internal politics inside Gaza, which will still have its own internal politics long after it has Hamas. Yeah.

Suffice it to say that idea of mass relocation of people from Gaza is not going over well in the Gaza Strip or frankly, anywhere in the Arab world. This all kind of was drummed up by that leaked Israeli government document about a week and a half ago. That was an early intelligence kind of ideas document that suggested that 2 million people could be moved into Egypt for some period of time. Now, the Israeli military, they are now telling people within Gaza, if you leave your homes, if you follow our evacuation order murders, you will eventually be able to go back to your homes.

But obviously there's not a whole lot of trust there. People don't believe that that's the case. Now. We're seeing not only the whole Arab world, but also even the US Government and the State Department come out today saying they don't support mass relocation and people need to be allowed to stay in their homes or to go back to their homes.

Incredibly complicated story. I'm glad we have you on it. Josh Letterman, thank you for your reporting. And up next, what happens in Miami.

Republican candidate Ron DeSantis is coming to the state tomorrow night hoping to re energize his campaign after winning the endorsement of Iowa Governor Ken Reynolds. I'll talk to a surrogate from the Santa's campaign, Congressman Chip Roy, next. You're watching me. The.

Welcome back. Turning back now to the rising tensions at home over the Israel hamas War. A 69 year old Jewish man died yesterday after he was injured during an altercation at dueling pro Israeli and pro Palestinian events in Thousand Oaks, California on Sunday. Witnesses told police that Paul Kessler got into a, quote, physical altercation with a counter protester, fell striking his head on the ground.

At a press conference today, Ventura County Sheriff's Office said no arrests had been made and they only identified the suspect as a 50 year old from nearby Moore Park. The sheriff's office stressed it remains an open investigation, if not without the possibility of a hate crime. Join me now with the latest from Thousand Oaks NBC. Liz Croyd.

So, Liz, what do we hear from police today and what did we learn about the circumstances surrounding Kessler's death? Hey, Gary. Yeah. I mean, the big question still remains even after this press conference is what happened in those moments leading up to that altercation that caused Mr.

Kessler to fall and hit his head. And that's the thing that Law ENFOR right now are continuing to investigate. As you mentioned though, they do have a suspect, a six year old man. They've not identified him.

But they said after Mr. Kessler's death yesterday, they did detain this man. They have a search warrant. They searched his home and they not long after did release him.

He is not under arrest right now. Law enforcement says that they are investigating this as a homicide, but that does not mean that there was a criminal act here. All of that under investigation right now. And we have heard reports from these conflicting witnesses and stories that perhaps the suspect had a megaphone and they have hit Paul Kessler in the face.

The autopsy shows that he died of blunt force trauma to the head, which is consistent with him falling like we see in the videos. But he did have injuries, they said, to his face. So that's consistent with perhaps some kind of blow to his face. But all that's under investigation.

So here is it. All right, Les, thank you for keeping us surprised on that. Let us know if there's any more developments this afternoon. And we'll be right back with more MEET THE PRESS now.

Welcome back. As we mentioned, we're here in Miami for a special edition of MEET THE PRESS NOW where five candidates are set to take the stage tomorrow night for the third Republican presidential debate, this one hosted by NBC News. Notably, there will be two fewer candidates than the last debate after former Vice President Mike Pence suspended his campaign last month and North Dakota under Doug Burgum failed to meet the RNC's criteria to qualify. And then, of course, there's the elephant out of the room, the frontrunner, former President Donald Trump, who is once again skipping the debate, instead opting to hold a rally just outside of Miami.

Ahead of hitting the debate stage, Governor Ron DeSantis scored a key endorsement yesterday from Iowa, Governor Kim Reynolds. In an exclusive interview with NBC News, Governor Reynolds explained why she's backing DeSantis, saying that Trump can't win in 2024. Listen, Reynolds, do you believe Trump can't win? Yeah, I can't.

I believe he can't win and I believe Ron can. And that's a big reason I got behind him. I do not think he'll win the general. You will see the media shift and come at him.

So the narrative that we're seeing now is not going to be the narrative. And joining me now is Republican congressman from Texas, Chip Roy. He's endorsed Ron DeSantis for president and was the first member of Congress to do so. Congressman, you heard the governor there.

She doesn't think Donald Trump can win a general election. That seems like a great reason to burn somebody else. Do you agree? Well, when I got in early in March to support Governor Santos, it was a significant part because I believe he was the guy that could win, handle it and can win with the biggest margin.

Frankly. Frankly have a lot of coattails. And we shouldn't be worrying about counting votes in Maricopa county or Fulton county, for example, a 90 day where we should be winning by large margins. You don't have to worry about that.

Governor DeSantis won Florida by a million and a half votes. You remember when Florida was right just a few years ago and Governor Santos wins by a million and a half votes with 62% of Hispanic voters. He won 50% of single female voters. And I think Governor Santa Gives us the best shot to run the tables and then have eight years of service for someone who is a clear conservative with a clear conservative track record.

And I'd like to put all of my, you know, support behind him because that's what I want to come for my kids and grandkids. That feels like a long time ago. Now we got a new pool out of Florida that has Trump winning that state in primary by 40 points. So if Ron DeSantis can't win his own state in a primary, we're showing some battleground polls right now that shows Trump beating Biden, some cases by significant margins in them.

How do you make the case for DeSantis as the electable guy when he's struggling even here in Florida? Well, first of all, I've learned over the years that polls are only as good as, you know, who you're polling and it's only as good as the questions being asked. And I've learned over the years a lot of things unfold when you see what people do on the ground. What we're seeing Governor DeSantis do in Iowa, where he has hit I think 80 something, 85, 88 or something like the 97 counties in Iowa.

He's been shaking hands, he's been doing hard work. Meanwhile, former president refuses even to come to the debate stage. I mean, I think that's kind of telling. I don't know if the president wants to get in a head to head matchup against Governor Santis when Governor Santa's track record is pretty daggone unassailable for most conservative voters.

So look, I think this stuff plays out. I've been around a long time watching politics and you see what happens on game day. You don't worry about, you know, looking at the preseason polls. What matters?

What do you want to feel? We have a game day tomorrow. I guess it's not the game day, depending on how you want. Firearms, the metaphor for we got pretty big game going on down here.

Miami debate. What do you want to see from your candidate tomorrow? And you think you ought to take on Donald Trump directly, including over the fact that the front runner's not showing up? Well, I think what you'll see from the governor is a clear indication from him about why he's the best candidate.

Right. And since the last debate, we've seen more evidence of it. Not only have we seen the governor do what he did in response to the hurricane in Florida, again, you know, Hurricane Ron DeSantis, who gets it done and builds bridges and helps people get electricity and power back up. Even the governor stepped in when frankly this president, the current administration is mia.

And he went over and got out thousands of Americans out of Israel. He stood up and he did the hard work as governor to go take action. That's what I think you're going to see out of governor tomorrow night. I think you'll see a very clear delineation by the governor about him versus some of the other candidates on stage.

Governor Haley, for example, others. But also the former president. The former president should not be immune from criticism of his record or statements he's made or his electability just because he refuses to show up. You know, I guess it's a long drive from our lagomi.

Oh, wait. Oh no. He's choosing to do a rally instead because he doesn't want to have to go head to head with Governor Santos because Governor Santa's track record is so strong. Congressman, let's do our day jobs for a minute.

Let me ask you about Congress a little bit. You got a deadline out of funding government 10 days away. When you guys met this morning, Republicans did try to talk about a path forward. Are you satisfied with how House leadership is navigating this?

And have you decided on kind of which of the options that exist to Republicans you believe you ought to take to try to keep the government from shutting down? And we can have. Yeah. The short version is the American people who've sent us here particularly I can tell you the Texas that I represent, they want us to reduce spending.

They want us to do our job to stand by Israel and defend our national security. And they want us to make sure that we're getting the job done to secure our border. I think we can do those things in the coming several months. I think we've demonstrated that we as a party unified, it does pretty short or things.

We pass the hardcore border security bill now we hold the Senate accountable. We pass seven preparations bills and 12 that I hope will pass a couple more. So now we're in position to demonstrate that we can lean to get things done when frankly the Senate's been MIA and the president's mia and in fact they're engaging policies directly after relevant to people represent. So my job is to do a good job is two weeks in two weeks and change.

Maybe we've got to give a little room to finish the job. But I don't give a hall past anybody. I'm gonna hold his feet to the fire just as I did Kevin McCarthy. We gotta cut spending.

We gotta do our job to do with American classes to do? Is it harder to show that you guys can do your jobs? When I think this week you're gonna vote on the fourth and fifth censure resolutions of the last two weeks. What do you say to people who look up and see Congress basically, you know, playing a hall monitor on other members as opposed to, you know, voting on things that your voters in places like Central Texas did send you there to deal with?

Well, I will say this two things. One, I have to say about Congresswoman Deli. Her statements went way too far. Her statements in defense of hamas, literally on October 8th in direct criticism of Israel and direct criticism of America's role, and direct criticism, even of Joe Biden daring to be a part of ensuring that we have natural resources for Israel.

She's essentially saying that we're cold in what we saw unfold with the exact unbelievably barbaric attacks on Israeli citizens, on innocent people. Beheadings. Beheadings of babies, but babies put in ovens. These are unspeakable things and wholly indefensible.

So what Representative Leave has done is deserving a rebuke. I went to the floor, talked about this. We were just on the floor talking about the central corner. I will vote for that.

Now, it was not table, so I will vote for that. But we gotta be careful about this. To your point, we don't need to get into it back and forth. And I did not support last week's resolution.

I do think that Representative Green brought it forward in good faith because she's troubled, as I am in with what Representative Leaf said. But I don't think it was drafted the way we needed to be. And we need to take great care. To your point, I don't want to get into a back and forth about, you know, a Democrat, Republican, Democrat, Republican, we should do our jobs.

But some things rise the level of meeting rebuke. And this is one of those. Yeah, I mean, I guess the counterargument, because Congressman's not here to defend herself, would be that these are issues for her voters to settle with her when that time comes. But you guys are free.

Use your time as you see fit. Chiproy, I always appreciate your time and your interest in these matters. Thank you for coming on. And we will see how your candidate, Ron DeSantis, does tomorrow night.

Now, as voters head to the polls on election day 2023, Democrats are growing increasingly anxious about election day 2024. As we reported earlier, recent poll numbers show President Biden trailing Donald Trump in five battleground states. And adding the concern for Democrats, a dramatic drop in support from groups that helped elect President Biden four years ago. He has just a 1 point advantage among voters under the age of 30 in the latest New York Times Sienna College poll of battleground states.

That's down from 18 points the same poll conducted in battleground states four years ago. And Biden's advantage among Hispanic voters has dropped from 34 points to just 8 points in these polls. I'm joined now Ferdinand Amandi, a Democratic pollster and NC News political analyst, and Carlos Curbello, former Republican congressman from Flora and also an NBC News political analyst. Carson, are we in your former district right now?

Are we close to it? We're pretty close. So welcome Garrett and the entire Meet the Press family to Miami. It's wonderful.

We're very happy to be here. I'm Ferdinand with you for talking about Democrats worrying, which is what Democrats so like to do at this point in the game. I'm curious if you think a it's too early to take these polls as seriously as many people are or if this should be an alarm bell for the Biden campaign when you look at the data in these polls about where they are with these different groups year round? Well, Gary, I think it's never too early to be concerned.

We're talking about the most important election in American history coming up with a fundamental choice on the ballot. But look, I think it would be wrong for Democrats to dismiss this as nothing to worry about. I think it should be a little bit alarming. Having said that, the Biden campaign is really now starting to launch their efforts in earnest.

We're at the year mark and the choice that's upcoming has a way to focus and concentrate the mind, so to speak. And I think that's going to change. The Biden campaign is focused a lot on Bidenomics and trying to sell the president's record. There's an argument out there among some Democrats that it needs to be a choice, that this needs to be a race about Donald Trump and not about what Joe Biden has done for you, where you fall on that spectrum?

Well, absolutely. I mean, I think the beauty of the Biden position is he can talk about both. He has a tremendous historical record of accomplishment. No president has done as much since LYNDON Johnson almost 60 years ago is what Biden has done in his first year, less than three years in.

Having said that, this is a choice not just between Biden and Trump, but between Biden and the MAGA movement, which I think is movement hostile to American democracy. That would fundamentally change not just the way we govern ourselves, but how the world perceives us. If Biden makes that choice, the clear choice, he's going to win re election comfortably. Garrett.

Because it's a problem, though, because Trump always gets graded on a curve. I mean, here's a guy who's got 91 criminal indictments against him. Everybody in the country knows probably as much about Donald Trump as they want to. How do you bring him down to your level if you're joined?

How do you go after a guy who sort of as well known and gets a pass, it seems, from so many voters on some of these issues? Well, Derek, one of the big problems for President Biden is that in 2020, I think his moral standing relative to Donald Trump was clearly higher. I mean, a lot of even moderate Republicans went to the polls and say, hey, we can't do another four years of Trump. We're going to pick Joe Biden because we think he's more decent, we think that he is more predictable, traditional politician.

But a lot of the scandals that the president has faced during his presidency, specifically those related to his son Hunter, have kind of muddied the waters. And therefore, it is an environment where the guys running against us, all these criminal charges lost moral standing on that 100%. But the problem for Democrats is that a lot of Trump supporters are willing to overlook that. A lot of the swing voters who chose Joe Biden in 2020 are now somewhat, you know, they flex again, they're swinging.

So this is a big problem. Now we zoom out a little more. It is remarkable that it seems like both parties are putting forward the two weakest candidates, two candidates that most Americans do not want to see as President of the United States. It doesn't have to be that way.

There are still elections happening, primaries in both places. Do you think President Biden needs a stronger primary challenger, whether to, you know, iron, sharpen iron, or whether there needs to be somebody else out there? Is Dean Phillips enough of a primary challenge? I think he should ask you a quarter if he needs a primary challenger.

Democrats don't want that. But what they do want is what we've seen in 2023, Garrett, all these special elections in these elections in different states. We'll see. The results tonight have been great for Democrats, have been overperforming in nearly every metric.

And sure, maybe some of the concerns about Biden's age is what we're seeing in the polls. When it comes down to hard elections, not polls, Democrats are doing well and as long as that moment continues next year, Biden's going to be fine. I think the bed wedding will stop a little bit. Oh, the bed wedding never stops.

That's what we do. I was gonna say this town, but we're not in this town. All right. So we do that here, too.

Oh, man. All right, that's fair. So which of these races that we were talking about at the beginning of the show, the races are happening. Actual voters voting today.

Will we be freaking out about our bed wedding about most tomorrow? Let each of you take a crack at that answer because I'm curious what you think. Well, obviously I'm looking at the results in Ohio. I think abortion has been criticized for the Republicans.

I think that trend continues. It's really gonna keep that break in whatever ambitions Mike Johnson has extreme that across the country is going to hold it. I think the Kentucky race is the one I'm most looking at. Why?

Governor Bashar is a very popular governor. Democrat has done well. If he loses, it's going to tell me that the polarization of the partisanship is going to determine what happens in 24, whichever brings the two nationals. Iowa is important because the abortion question, does it continue fueling Democrats bringing women to the polls to support Democratic candidates and causes?

But Virginia, I think is also a key bellwether state. Virginia always gives us a one year preview into what's going to happen in 2024. And oftentimes it's remarkably accurate. So we'll see what Glenn Youngkin is able to do there.

If he can bring those suburbs back to support Republicans and help solidify Republicans in that state. Or if Virginia keeps trending blue despite the fact that Young can have that big deal, there are so many more traditional Republicans who are rooting for Youngkin behind the scenes, if for no other reason than to see his brand of conservatism without the Trump edge to it be success. What do you make of the campaign he's been running on behalf of all these legislative candidates, but functionally on behalf of like a more traditional Republican agenda. So if Youngkin succeeds in Virginia tonight and Trump doesn't make it or loses the next election, I think Youngkin automatically becomes probably the leading Republican for president for 2028.

So the stakes are huge tonight. Even all these things are so far away in politics, we have to start paying attention. I love a five year out prediction. What about tomorrow night?

What about the debate stage tomorrow? What are you looking for from these candidates on our stage tomorrow? So this NBC News debate is a big deal. Because one of these candidates is going to emerge as the one that could take on Donald Trump one on one and potentially wrestle the nomination from him.

That's what the fight is going to be about tomorrow night. Garrick, probably Nikki Haley against Ron DeSantis. Those two have really emerged as the two second tier leaders here. And one of them wants that opportunity to face off against Donald Trump one on one.

Not in every primary contest, certainly after the first two or three. That's the positioning that we're going to see tonight. And look, I know a lot of people say, well, this is a race for second place, this presidential race. On the surface here, it looks very stable.

Trump versus Biden. That's what's going to happen. But as we discussed here, there's a lot going on beneath the surface. So this debate is very important.

All right, gentlemen. Carlos, we have to leave it there. I appreciate your expertise and you're welcome to Miami. Thanks for having us here in town.

And still come Florida, Florida, Florida. I will talk to a former member of the state's congressional delegation who's now vying to become a future senator as Democrats battle a difficult political climate in Sunshine State and across the country. You're watching the PRESS now. Welcome back.

And as we look ahead to 2024, Democrats will not only be looking to defend their control of the Senate, but perhaps just perhaps even expand their majority. Among their targets is Republican Senator Rick Scott of Florida, the state where no Democrat has won a statewide election in five years. Among the Democrats seeking to unseat him is former Democratic Congressman Debbie Mercury Powell, who's looking to become just the second Latina elected the Senate. Join me now is that former Democratic congresswoman and current Senate candidate Debbie Mercil Powell.

Congressman, thank you for being here. I want to ask you about something you said earlier today. You said Florence had had enough of, quote, the MAGA agenda. But this thing has been trending so red recently.

Obviously, Governor Santos just reelected by a large margin. Marco Rubio reelected by a large margin. How Democrats reverse that trend in a state that seems pretty comfortable with the MAGA agenda right now? Well, I can tell you, Garrett, that the state is not a red state.

And part of the problem that we saw in 2022 is that most of our voters, Democratic voters, a lot of independent voters, stayed. If you look at the numbers in the margins, Ron DeSantis and Marco Rubio had very similar votes than they did back in 2018. So they didn't really gain a whole lot of new voters or new support. It was that our base stayed home.

And that's because there was absolutely no infrastructure bringing our voters out. I remember I was traveling. I was working with Giffords at the time combating gun violence and had been traveling the state, and there was absolutely no structure to communicate with our voters. There was an election.

There was an important election. Is it truly a technical problem, or is that also a messaging problem? Surely it's not just that you didn't have enough billboards and radio ads. Look, we can talk all day about messaging, right?

I mean, I know that a lot of Democrats are constantly talking about that, but I think that at the end of the day, when you look at what's been happening in the state, we voted for a $15 minimum wage bill that was on the ballot. We voted to make sure that people who had served their time could actually be able to vote in the state. And what's happened is that, yes, Donald Trump has used the state as ground for the most extreme policies that are coming out of the Republican Party, but that's not who we are. Like you said, we just won five years ago.

We won statewide in 2018. Rick Scott won by barely 10,000 votes. There had to be a recount. And Desantis also won by less than a percentage point.

I won in 2018. This community down here in South Florida, knowing my story, that was an immigrant that came here really looking for opportunities that had been working for many years at fiu, providing access to good quality health care. They wanted change. They wanted someone that was going to represent them in D.C.

it's the same thing that I'm hearing now, and I can feel it on the ground. This is not a red state, Garrett. This is a gerrymandered and a voter suppressor. So how do you make the case to Democrats nationally that a state that has so many super expensive media markets, it's a gigantic state, you're running against a multi millionaire who can spend his own money.

It's a good investment to try to win a state that. I don't know, I'm not squinting at it, I'm not living here, but it sure looks pretty red from where I sit recently. That's a lot of it, is not understanding who we are in Florida. We have an independent streak here.

We don't like anyone telling us what to do. Right. And I think that that was part of what Desantis was able to kind of grab onto after the pandemic. But at the end of the day, yes, this is extremely diverse and it's extremely expensive because we are the third largest economy in the United States.

Most of our voters, almost half of our voters are either Latinos or black Americans. We if you care if Democrats care about diversity, they need to invest if. I'm sorry, one more thing. It's really important if we really want to tackle the climate change crisis that we're facing.

This is the state that is most affected by the change in climate. We need to invest. If you want Miami to still be here in 50 years, that's one of those things you talk about President Biden, we talked about those numbers at the top of the Semin that he's really struggling in these swing states, but also struggling with younger voters, struggling with Latino voters. To what do you ascribe those problems to the leader party?

You know, right now we are so polarized. It's very difficult to break through any of the messaging. And what I tell my nieces, what I tell my kids when we talk about this. Right.

I mean, I'm running for Senate. We talk about politics in our House. It's that I remind them that right now our democracy is on the line and that it doesn't matter what frustrations they may have. Politicians are not perfect.

People in office make mistakes. But President Biden has done a lot to protect our communities from gun violence. He's been able to invest in climate change, which is an issue that's very important. Why do you think he's struggling in so much in these numbers?

Is it, is it again the messaging or is it. You can't break through with the messaging. A lot of the young voters are constantly on their phones looking at Instagram. I'll give you a perfect example.

I just met a young voter here in Florida. She didn't know we had a special election. She gets her news from Instagram. She looks at influencers that talk about fashion and.

But she wants to engaged and she just doesn't know how. Do you think, do you think Biden pride as effective as a messenger in the state? Would you invite him to campaign with you? Look, let's talk about what's going on.

Would you like to have the leader of your party come here? I would absolutely work with anyone that's going to support me and my race that will support putting Florida's family's interests above anything else. Yes, and I know answer. Of course.

Of course. He's the president of our country. He passed the inflation reduction Act. He actually passed a bill that Rick got voted against, which is very interesting, the CHIPS act, which actually makes investments in manufacturing and creating jobs here.

In the United States. For all the talk about China, why would you vote against a bill that actually makes us independent from China? So that we don't rely on China for these very important parts, for our cars, for phones, for everything. Right.

I mean, guns, violence. Are Republicans. Are you telling me that I'm not going to campaign with the president who passed the bipartisan Safer Communities act, investing in mental health, safer schools, and also reducing gun violence? Yes.

All right, Congressman, we gotta leave it there. And if that campaign of habits, I suspect I'll be back. Former Congressman wo, thank you for coming in. And we should know we did extend an invitation to Senator Rick Scott to join us today.

That's still an open invitation. I'll be back tomorrow with another special edition of Be the Press. Now live from the NBC Spin Room ahead of the third Republican presidential debate. This is part of a whole slate of special programming.

My colleagues Hallie Jackson and Tom Yanis will be taking off pre debate coverage at 7:00 clock Eastern. They'll be back with post debate analysis after that. And of course, don't miss the main event. 8 o' clock Eastern, moderated by my colleague Lester Holt, Person Welker and Hugh Hewitt.

The news continues with Hallie Jackson right now. He was a young Marine. She didn't care about convention. They made a life together.

Then one night the Marine died. And then the death investigation took a wild, unexpected and utterly bizarre turn. I'm Josh Makowitz and this is Trace of Suspicion, an all new podcast from Dayline. Listen to all episodes of Trace of Suspicion now, wherever you get your podcasts.