Meet the Press NOW — September 25

If it's Monday, shut down showdown. Republicans are at the bargaining table and they're at odds over how to keep the government's lights on. Will the speaker of the House turn to Democrats for help? Plus, refusing to resign.

New Jersey senior senator says he'll stay on the job despite a growing chorus of Democrats telling him to step down. We'll have more of his public defense to his historic second indictment. Plus, problems at the polls. Alarm bells are blaring for Democrats in the latest NBC News survey of the 2024 election.

With President Biden's approval underwater, can he hang on the coalition that put him in the White House? Our own Steve Konaki will dive into the numbers. Hello and welcome to MEET THE press. Now I'm Ryan Nobles reporting in Washington where it's tick tock on the clock for Speaker Kevin McCarthy as he strikes an optimistic tone on his conference's progress to avert a government shutdown with the funding deadline only days away and yet no deal in place.

Speaking this morning, Kevin McCarthy said his conference plans to move ahead with four individual spending bills this week while telling me Congress still needs to pass a short term funding bill to keep the government open, projecting confidence that that vote could be happen at any time. So if you're working appropriations bill, sir, then have you begun talks about moving a continuing resolution as well? You got to be able to keep government open. I mean, and when you look at what the work that the members were able to do on keeping the government open at the same time, securing the border, I think you would find a lot of support on both sides of the we're going to first put up the rule, we got to do the appropriation bills and then we can move to that.

How soon have CR reported on that? Well, we've got the CR working now, so we can do it anytime. So do you believe you can pass a CR and send it to the Senate before? I'm a believer in everything, yeah.

I never do. He never gives up. On their own, the appropriations bills aren't enough to avert a shutdown. They appear to get another overture by Speaker McCarthy to the hardliners in his party as he tries to rally support for a stopgap funding bill.

But the holdouts have yet to show signs of budging on a continuing resolution. And just last week they blocked a single defense spending bill. Twice over the weekend, Donald Trump again weighed in on the shutdown fight on social media, writing, quote, unless you get everything, shut it down. Today, McCarthy warned members a shutdown couldn't hurt the party politically, people who want to close the government only makes it weaker.

Why would they want to stop paying the troops or stop paying the border agents for the Coast Guard? I don't understand how that makes you stronger. I don't understand the point you're trying to make. Why would you want to stop paying those individuals?

I couldn't understand somebody that warned you that. Now, of course, even if the House can get something passed before this week's deadline, any funding effort would also have to pass the Democrat led Senate. And McCarthy's appeals to the far right all but guarantee his version would be bet on arrival. Meanwhile, across Capitol Hill, the Senate continues to deal with the fallout of Friday's indictment of Senator Bob Menendez.

Menendez defended himself against the allegations of corruption at a press conference earlier today and seemingly criticized those who called for his resignation. I firmly believe that when all the facts are presented, not only will I be exonerated, but I still will be the New Jersey's senior senator. The court of public opinion is no substitute for our revered justice system. We cannot set aside the presumption of innocence for political expediency when the harmony is irrevocable to those who have rushed to judgment.

You have done so based on a limited set of facts framed by the prosecution to be as salacious as possible. Remember, prosecutors get it wrong sometimes. Sadly, I know that. Joining me now on Capitol Hill is my colleague Sahil Kapoor.

So, Sahil, Speaker McCarthy, he sounded optimistic on where things are, but I mean, we're just running out of time. I mean, is there any way to actually avoid a shutdown at this point? Hey, ryan. Well, Speaker McCarthy likes to be an internal optimist in these moments, but here I need the press.

Now we are going to live in reality. And the reality is time is running short. There are five days left and it would take something close to a miracle for McCarthy to be able to avoid a government shutdown in time. Remember when you took away all the procedural machinations here?

The reality is the publicans are still fighting amongst themselves about what their opening bid should be in negotiations with the Democratic led Senate to the Democratic President. They haven't even begun that. So the idea that can, you know, avoid these, or I guess resolve these Republican divisions and kind of deal with Democrats and pass them through both chambers and keep his job at the same time, exceedingly unlikely. And that's what it might come down to at the end of the day.

Might have to choose between fighting the government or keeping his job with the way these far right Members keep threatening it if he does pass any kind of short term funding though, and you know, asylum in many ways he can't even believe them when they tell him that they're gonna vote for some things. We saw last week hardliners blocked the defense appropriation bill twice even after he thought he had the votes. Has the landscape really changed that much over the weekend? I'm told me this morning that it sounds like these guys want to negotiate, but we really don't have any hard evidence that the holdouts are ready to move forward on anything assembling a continuing resolution.

Yeah, let's put it this way, Ryan. There is some hope for McCarthy that he can unlock the door to move forward with the appropriations. Remember, these are Republican only bills. You know that even if they pass it would not avoid government shut down.

It was just a negotiation for the Senate on the appropriation process. But there's no sign that his far right members who say they won't support a continuing resolution under any circumstances are budging on that. And those same exact numbers are saying that McCarthy does partner with Democrats to fund the government, which he will have to do inevitably. That if he does that they might trigger a motion to vacate the Speaker's chair, also known as overthrowing him.

Now, beyond the House, any funding dealer, as you write the point out and have to go through the Democratic Senate, it feels like we've been talking about them a lot. That was One of Speaker McCarthy's important points this morning. That is hard to argue with. The Senate hasn't passed anything either.

What's the latest from that chamber? That's right. The Senate has been quite sluggish this month after, you know, having a pretty smooth appropriations process up through the end of July before the August recess began. What we expect from the Senate lender back tomorrow is a motion to move forward, a vote to move forward with a vehicle to do it to pass the continuing resolution.

They have begun that process. That could take all week. It might require unanimous consent in the Senate to get it through before the September 30 deadline. But you know, overall, Ryan, the Senate is in better shape.

There's at least agreement between Democrats and vast majority of Republicans about the funding level. They want to stick to that two year budget agreement. They also agree they're going to keep out, you know, controversial riders that either side could consume as a poison pill, whether it's stuff that Democrats want or stuff the Republicans want. So they're just in better shape to fund the government.

But let's say they do pass continue resolution. What happens when it gets to the House? Land on crosses. He's not gonna take it up and put it on the floor unless again, he wants to risk his job.

So it might be a long, painful process for him to tame these numbers, to talk them down and say this is what needs to be done. And you're right. It's there are more people in agreement on publics. The issue is timing.

Right. And just one senator could slow that process down pretty radically. That's exactly right. They will very likely need unanimous consent of all 100 senators to be able to vote speedily and get bill done before this time period deadline.

We also don't know exactly how long this continuing resolution is going to be, whether it's going to include the president's supplemental requests on Ukraine aid and disaster funding. Checking where the majority leader has kept some of these options open because I think he wants to see where the vote are in the Senate and what can get through with, you know, the smooth possible process. But yeah, the Senate too has worked too. It's not clear that either chamber is going to be able to pass a bill before they deadline at this moment.

You're so optimistic. I appreciate that about you. And let's continue with the optimism. The Senate also dealing with the indictment of Senator Rob Menendez.

He seemed pretty defiant this morning. I mean, what's the reaction, Ben, to the allegations in Congress? There does seem to be, and it's maybe happening slowly, but a concerted push for him to resign. Yes, there absolutely is a concerted push among Democrats that calls for Bob Menendez to resign are growing after that jarring indictment charging him with corruption and bribery.

Some of the notable names that call him Menendez to resign are Phil Murphy, the Democratic governor of New Jersey. Almost everyone in New Jersey's congressional delegation on the House side who's the Democrat, has called on Menendez to resign. One exception being his son, Rob Menendez, who's a congressman from New Jersey. And in the Senate, there are very few calls for him to resign.

One notable name is John Fetterman, the freshman senator from Pennsylvania who said Menendez should go. He also said that he will return $5,000 in donations that Menendez sent his way in his 2022 campaign. And in kind of a mockery of some image from the indictments that he's going to do it with $100 bill stuffed in an envelope. So I sense of how some Democrats feel about this party that leads in government, the party of good government against what they will call the corruption and criminality of Donald Trump having senators like Bob Menendez charged with bribery sticking around.

There is not exactly consensus with that crime. And sah, you were talking while our Capitol Hill text chain fired up with a text from our Kate Santoles, who's also reporting that Ohio's Sherrod Brown also now calling on Bob Menendez to resign. Probably noble because he is up for re election in what will be a very competitive state of Ohio. So silent poor.

Thank you for that report. I appreciate that. Now joining us is our panel, Dan America, national political reporter for the Messenger, Kimberly Atkinstore, a Boston Globe columnist and NBC News political analyst and Republican strategist, Doug Hyde. So you know, Dan, this is where we are.

McCarthy couldn't get one appropriations bill done. I mean, not last week, but really all summer. Now he tells us he's going to get four through and abcr. I mean, how realistic is this?

Highly unrealistic. I mean, I know that he says an optimistic get it done. It doesn't seem like it. I think cycle is spot on, that it doesn't affect either House, either chamber to get something done.

And you do kind of in a way. I mean, McCarthy asked for this job, so you can't feel for him that much. But he is definitely in a position where he's debating with keeping his gavel or at least not having his gavel threatened and funding the government. And right now it seems like he is saying, I'm okay with keeping my gavel and not funding the government.

He's being cheered on by people like Donald Trump and others, and he's capitulating to certainly the far right of his party. How long does that last? Does that continue to impact his standing with moderate Republicans in his party? It remains to be seen.

I'm actually interested in the political ramifications of this. There are elections in a few weeks in Virginia and other states. The shutdown could be significant. No state in the nation is more tied to federal government than Virginia, as you know.

Well, don't get out of our rundown. I want to get the guy who's been in the room for conversations like he's done. It's interesting with McCarthy and to Dan's point about this, it does seem as though he's trying all these different maneuvers to convict these conservative holdouts to come on board the impeachment inquiry. They just kind of shrug their shoulders and said it's not enough.

Now he has this idea we're gonna push through all these impeachment, these appropriations packages and vote on one by one but there's really no evidence yet that's gonna be enough for them to then also vote for the continuing resolution, is there? No. He's doing everything plus the kitchen sink. And the reality is there's nothing that's good enough caucus because nothing will ever be good enough caucus.

You ultimately can't satisfy them. I think the challenge for Kevin here is why he's trying every maneuver that he can. It's not so much about shutting down the government. The government is going to be shut down.

The question is, how do we reopen it? And what are the potential political hospitals within the Capitol and outside of the Capitol for that? That's where the unknowns are at this point. And it's ultimately where Republicans are looking at past times, of where Republicans get planned.

If Republican leadership realizes this, others are playing very different strategic or tactical games. And how big of a role you think President Trump, is he in the background and all this? Are there people talking to him? When has he been proactively a good actor and things like this?

I think that's what we're seeing now. He's giving cover to, you know, some of those more troublemaker members, and they need some cover. Donald Trump's the perfect cover for them politically. I want to play President Biden addressing the shutdown just moments ago.

Take a listen to this. Now. A small group of extreme House Republicans, they don't want to live up to that deal. And everyone in America could be faced with paying the price of that change.

It made a deal. But you can you say, this is what we're going to do, and now they're in economic deal, which is not much of a surprise these days. At what point, though, do Democrats like the president, like Hakeem Jeffries in the House, need to start talking to maybe some of these moderate Republicans who are probably also freaking out about the idea of a shutdown and saying, we got to make a deal, guys, because we're running out of time. Well, I would believe that they've already begun doing that.

It all ends up on Kevin McCarthy. Look, it's not a matter of if he could lose his gavel based on this deal that he made. It's a matter of when. And at least now this is a big deal.

We have people, millions of people, who will be affected by this in a really real way if the government shuts down. If this is not the place where he stands up to the troublemakers, as you said, within the caucus, who represent a tiny sliver of the American electorate. When is it going to Be. And so I think at this point, he needs to turn to both moderates and the Democrats.

Say what it is that they want. The Democrats have already said is ending this impeachment inquiry. We'll see if that happens. But Kevin McCarthy can't win here.

So since though, that Republican leadership needs to defeat these troublemaker members, because let's say Kevin cuts that deal and there's a motion to vacate the speaker because a speaker's beliefs of speaker and Ken Ren now have stronger hands. No. And so that's why they feel we need to beat them now. It's gonna be pretty ugly process.

So, Kimberly, is that to Doug's point, that at some point you have to marginalize these 10 rabble houses? Right. I done the math many times. There's a lot more non rabble Rogers than there are Rabbit Rogers.

They seem to be controlling everything. I mean, that's gonna require at least a small group of Democrats, right? Yes. Does Hakeem Jeffrey say to that small group of moderate, hey, listen, let's cut deal with him to get this government funded.

And then when the motion to vacate comes around, you guys can walk out of the room or do something to protect his speakership, would that be responsible on Jeffrey's part? Depending on what that deals, I think that's exactly what you're gonna see happen. You have people on the Democratic side who are like Republicans that are talking to each other, coming up with a plan and are really gaming this out. And in the meantime, they can point the blame to Republicans if the government shuts down, as you said, depending on how long it remains shut down.

Okay, now let's get to your piece again. Dan wrote piecemester.com about the political fallout beyond Capitol Hill and how this affects legislative versions. We spend a lot of time talking about what happens here in the Beltway, but this has big impact outside and not that far out of the Beltway. One of the Republican candidates, Ian Lovejoy, who's running for the House of Delegates and they're trying to hold onto those houses there, said in Richmond, I will never shut down the government over politics.

The needs of my constituents will always come first. And it's time for Congress to wake up and protect the livelihoods of those who represent who they represent. So I live in Northern Virginia. I've got a lot of, you know, neighborhood dads and moms who are coming to me at our barbecues and being like, am I getting furloughed?

If you're running for the House of Delegates, even though it's not the Richmond state legislature's fault. There's going to be blowback there. If you're a Republican and there's Republicans. Right, Huge blowback.

I mean, Virginia is tied to federal government whether it likes or not. It's trying to diversify its economy. In Northern Virginia, it has not done that. There are hundreds of thousands, there are tens of thousands of government workers who live in the D.C.

suburbs. There are bus lines that go from one city in Virginia directly to D.C. because that's how federal workers get to work. And those people could be furloughed if the government shuts down.

It has happened before. In 2013, there were key governors, Attorney General Linton, Governor Racing Virginia, the government shut down for two weeks and a few days. All three of those Democrats won those races in 2013. It is complicated for Republicans in these districts because there are some who want to cheer shut down, who want to see the federal government go down.

There's a sentiment behind that. But they know that the vast majority of folks who live in that district either live next to somebody who works for federal government or the bodega or the coffee shop down the street gets a lot of business from those folks and all of those business will be impacted. It's not just the federal government shutting down and losing paychecks, its businesses in these communities as well. The government contractors too.

Who, Doug, you were an Eric Cantor's office during a shutdown. I mean, talk about that impact. What does it mean for constituents, particularly for people who represent constituents in Virginia, Maryland? I mean, it's everything the federal government does and in Maryland and in Virginia, that touches day to day life in a way that it just doesn't in southern North Carolina.

North Carolina or North Dakota or Texas or paper state. But the political realities are also very different for House members. I remember those races and you know, it was we told these members, if we close down the government, if you touch the stove, you touch the stove, you get burned. But our elections in the House were a year later and there ultimately was no penalty for Republicans.

And Republicans and House of Representatives are very mindful of it. It's why their motivations are very different than what you think they might normally be. All right, and Kimberly, before we go, just the impact for Democrats of the Menendez indictment. Did Democrats need to get ahead of this and try and distance themselves from him?

I think they absolutely do. I think if you resist the calls to resign, which I think will only increase, they will have to create that distance because as you pointed out, corruption is the very thing that Democrats have been claiming the moral high ground on. And so if someone within their own ranks gets a pass, it will be impossible for them to differentiate between what he's doing. Yes, he didn't wage an insurrection, but it's the kind of bribery that gets to the heart of what we don't want politicians to do.

This is the second time around ICOA I was giving a speech on protecting democracy this week. This week. It's bad timing and not front. Well, it's awkward and it may not be an insurrection, but trading government secrets to another foreign government is a very big problem.

So obviously innocent, guilty, but very big issue for Democrats. Great conversation, guys. Daniel, Doug, hey, thank you for being here. Still come this hour, the enthusiasm gap and widespread concerns for Joe Biden.

What the latest NBC polling says about the 2024 race C standing by at the big board and the growing migrant crisis. We'll talk to New York Democratic Congressman Vincent Gonzalez Jr. About just what Washington, Washington can do to help overwhelm cities and states. You're watching Beat the Press now.

Welcome back. We already gave you a little taste, but we do have a slew of brand new numbers for ABC News poll in the 2024 election. President Biden and more. We're gonna be rolling out new numbers all week, but we have some very interesting insights to start with.

And joining me now at our poll, who else but NBC, Steve Karnaki. Steve, I wanted you to firstly talk about the bill's chances winning the AFC east, which I know you're also very adept at. We won't get into that now. Instead, let's talk about these interesting numbers in this new poll about 2024.

Take it away. Yeah. Well, two eyes, the only thing standing in your top 2024 election will start on the Republican side a couple days from that next Republican debate. Here is where we in our NBC News poll have the Republican race nationally right now.

Donald Trump. Look at this. The four president way out in front, 59% support, second place Ron DeSantis at 16, a 43 point gap. That's like that Dolphins Broncos game yesterday in terms of the cap.

Almost there. All right. Everybody else back in single digits. I think significantly, you heard the start of the summer, a lot of Trump's Republican rivals, his critics, certainly on and off the record, they talked about the indictments Trump was going to face over some of the charges.

Trump skipping that first Republican debate as potentially bringing his numbers back down to earth and giving some of these other candidates an opportunity to move up instead you had the indictments, you had the debate. Trump has only expanded his lead. It was barely, he was barely at 50% back in June. Now he's nearly at 60%.

As you can see, nobody else has moved up. So if this is the direction Republicans are going, if they want to renominate Trump and if they want a rematch with Biden, how might that look? We polled Trump versus Biden in a rematch and look at this, they are tied.46,46 in our poll. And I should know, our polling, just about every other poll out there taken in 2019 and 2020 never showed a race this close between Biden and Trump.

And Biden in fact did win the popular vote by four and a half points over Trump in 2020. So what's different now? I mean, the obvious difference is if this is a rematch, the roles are reversed. Biden would be the incumbent, Trump would be the chall.

And as an incumbent president, Biden is subject to numbers like this. His job approval sits at 41%. Our poll, 56% disapproved. That is a record high for Biden as president.

In our poll, 56% disapproved. Big thing driving that is the economy. Start of Biden's presidency, the country was basically divided in half on whether they were satisfied or dissatisfied with the economy. But now it's barely one in four voters who say they're satisfied with where the economy is.

That's certainly not going to help Biden. Neither is this. We talked about, certainly the indictments, the charges, the looming trials with Donald Trump, asking voters if that's a major or a moderate concern for them. 62% say the Trump criminal and legal issues are a major moderate concern.

But look at this number. 12 points higher. 74% say that the President's age and fitness represent a major or moderate concern to them as they make up their mind. By the way, Donald Trump, only three years younger than Joe Biden, 80, 77, but a 27 point gap in number of folks who say that Trump's age and fitness are major, a minor concern to them.

So that is an X factor that probably looms large and affects Biden's poll numbers as well. Okay, Steve Cracky, thank you so much for breaking that down for us. And joining me now to make sense of all those poll numbers. What a job for you AIM is Amy Walter, the publisher and editor in chief of the Cook Political Report.

I mean, if I'm a Democrat, I look at these numbers and be really concerned. And it seems like every time you talk to a Democrat. Well, let's just wait until we actually get into a general election. Could we get a point where Democrats just assume everything's gonna work out okay, and all of a sudden they wake up and they could be in trouble?

Well, I don't think there is one Democrat or not one Democrat I talk to who feels like, oh, we've got this thing in the back. Don't worry about it. But there are some conflicting data points. So we see in this poll that Democrats are unenthusiastic, especially younger voters, voters of color, not as interested in the 2024 election than Republicans or older voters or white voters.

And yet we've had special elections. We've about 30 special elections at the congressional, state, legislative level where Democrats are outperforming their baseline in those districts by on average 11 points. So you're getting to see, well, this is a poll and then this is actually what's happening in reality. Which one of those things is correct?

I think both of them can be true at the same time. And this is what Democrats are really hoping, which is this. Look, is their base not super excited right now? Sure.

Not when we're talking about how old Joe Biden is or what's going on in the economy. But in 2024, we'll also be spending. This is Democrat saying this. We're going to be spending a lot of time talking about the stakes of this election.

It will be about Donald Trump. It will be about January 6th. It will be about abortion access. It'll be whatever goes on in these trials.

Our voters are going to turn out just like they have in every election in the states that matter. But to your point, they still have to turn out. And that is if the economy is looking as, you know, if there's glum about the economy as they are right now, or maybe things get worse. What if we have inflation that's kind of sticking to where it is and unemployment starts going up.

If there is something else that comes out that really takes the focus on something that's more of a Biden weakness than an asset. Yeah. A movement of just a little bit. Couple folks staying home.

That matters a lot to the point. We just had the graphic up there again. If we can bring it back up, the numbers that talk, that talk about what voters are more concerned about. Right.

And Steve did a good job of bringing it down. But 74% saying that Biden's agent fitness is the number one concern. That's actually quite a bit more than even these criminal and civil trials that Donald Trump is dealing with. And then look at how close that matches to the situation that with Hunter Biden that President Biden is dealing with.

I mean, this has got to be something that weighs on those enthusiasm numbers. There's no doubt about that. There's no doubt about that. When whatever number it is have different numbers.

But, you know, 60% or so of Democrats say, I'd like another candidate other than Joe Biden on the top of the ticket. There's certainly an enthusiasm challenge right there. The question becomes, I think, for Biden, we're only in 2023. He's not gonna be younger in 2024.

So what does the age issue look like a year from now for Trump? Yes. I think for a lot of people, they're like, okay, the indictments, we heard a lot about it. It seems like same old, same old, same old we keep hearing about.

When it's in the public attention day in and day out, you all will be reporting on the various trials. Will that number equal or surpass the Bidens every day. That's right. And then you say, well, boy, gosh, given that, it feels like we're in.

To me, the most was one of that Pew. The Pew poll showed the other day that 65% of Americans would ask how they feel about politics. Said, exhausted. Right, Exhausted.

So no one's really excited about this rematch. Well, you know, despite all these Asian fitness concerns, there really is no serious Democrat even thinking about running against President Biden. Congressman Dean Phillips, you know, he tried to beg a bunch of Democrats to it. None of them were interested.

He's now thinking about doing it. What would be the utility in someone like him jumping into the race? I know it. There are, I guess, this idea that you want to have a placeholder, somebody who's on the ballot in case something happens, perhaps, is where we're going here.

But a primary challenge to Joe Biden is not likely to go anywhere. Even among Democrats. Those who say, we'd like to have somebody else on the top of the ticket, they like Joe Biden. He has high approval ratings among Democrats.

It's not that they think he's not doing a good job or they disagree with this policy they would like. I think what they're saying is not that I want someone to challenge him, but that he just shouldn't run again. I'm worried about him as a candidate. He should step down, and whoever gets the nomination let that happen.

But I don't know that what they're asking for is an actual fight within the party that could potentially Split allegiances. All right, last question for you before you go. My NC News colleagues on this earlier reporting about Kirsten Cinema considering an independent run. She's putting out some paper trying to tell people how she can win a race in Arizona as independent with two other candidates.

What's her realistic path? That seems whatever path she suggests is that she doesn't need to pull off that many Democrats. She's not very popular among Democrats, pull off a quarter of Republicans. But here's the thing that strikes me as very, very close to difficult, not impossible, which is losing 60 to 70% of all independent voters.

Remember, people identify themselves as independent. It doesn't mean they really want to vote for independent. Exactly. That's a lot of votes to get among people who really do lean demo Republican.

Okay. Well, that's a great piece by Amy Walter. Thank you for being here. I appreciate it.

Next, Donald Trump all but certain to win the third GOP nomination. It seems that way. We have new reporting on anti Trump apprehension from some of the party's top donors. What they're worried about, what they've been spending, all this money they've been spending to stop the former president and it could be a fool's errand.

You're watching me, the press now. Welcome back. At this hour, Donald Trump is on the campaign, South Carolina, talking to voters in the early primary state as his lead in the primary polls remains massive. Miami, Singh's colleague Von Hilliard and Ben Chemister have new reporting on how the anti Trump effort inside the Republican Party is faltering in South Carolina and across the board with Trump appearing to be on a glide path for his third consecutive nomination.

Von Hilliard Jones now he's on the ground with the former president in South Carolina. Sivan, you're in South Carolina and Trump is there as well. But I want to start with this new reporting about the various anti Trump factions inside the Republican Party. They just have been unable to gain any traction.

Are they worried that it may be too late? Ryan, that's exactly the concern. And when I was talking with one particular campaign advisor on a non Trump campaign, the way this person pointed to me was that there was a lot of talk to start the year about starting Donald Trump from outside organization, folks who weren't directly working for campaigns. But when it came time to put rubber on the road, it's a big question mark as to where that Calgary actually went.

Because when you're looking at just a club for growth, for example, one of those key conservative groups, its leader held a retreat donor back In February in West Palm beach that hosted five of the alternative Trump presidential candidates and made a commitment that they were going to go essentially all in to make sure Donald Trump didn't send the nomination again. But here, just three and a half months of Iowa caucus, that group of growth has only spent about $6 million in advertising at this point. And notably, most of that money was spent over the summer in the month of September, Ryan, just $5,000. There's concern among folks that are working for campaigns and also those on the outside, though, that that, yeah, that opportunity window is narrowing to take down Donald Trump.

So it doesn't seem like there's a cash problem and these groups are not digging into Trump's lead. I mean, if I'm a big donor, right, and I've already given a lot more, there's not a time incentive for me to keep giving. Right, Exactly. I was talking to a key fundraiser out in Arizona who was Donald Trump's campaign finance chair in 2016 and 2020.

But she told me, I mean, she was open minded. She said that the Ronnie Santos campaign particularly was wounding her. But she said that in her conversations with donors in Arizona, she said that she found it difficult for her to make the case to anybody that they should donate because there was no viable alternative to Donald Trump in her eyes. And she believes that Trump has become more attractive to her personally over the course of the summer.

And she said, hey, her position as a fundraiser, the best bet for her right now is Donald Trump because she wants a Republican back in the White House to take on Joe Biden. And right now, the best place to place money for her and for other donors is on Don Trump. So you're gonna say right now with two very popular natives and Nikki Haley and Tim Scott, who are both running for president, but Donald Trump is the one with the big lead there. And what have you heard from South Carolina voters?

Right. As of right now, it appears, Ryan, if polling is accurate, that they're not popular enough. In two recent polls out of South Carolina, it shows Donald Trump with about a 25:30 lead over Tim Scott, Nikki Haley, Ron DeSantis here. I want to let you hear from two of the South Carolinians.

Of course, we are at a Trump rally. It just wrapped up here. And folks are here for a reason because they like Donald Trump. But I think it's important context because this is when Nikki and Tim's got her up against if they want to pull up a nomination, Donald Trump.

Listen to two of the South Carolinas, right, to talk to you guys have two of your own candidates running from South Carolina, Atlanta. Why Donald Trump and not them? I love Nikki Haley. I love Tim Scott.

They're great people. But I love Trump more because he's amazing. Even though you guys have gotten to know Nikki Haley and Tim Scott over all these years on a quite personal level, they've been in the news every day for you. You still say better the devil you know than the devil you don't.

Absolutely. And Ryan, I've been having those exact types of conversations dating back to January day, back to the summer and here again in September. We're four months away from the South Carolina primary. Could be that last damn.

That could break and give Battle Truck the nomination ultimately. Right. Okay. Excellent reporting as always on Hillary.

Thank you so much. Appreciate it. Growing calls for federal help cities declare border emergencies. Is Congress working on any policy fixes?

Democratic Representative Vincent Gonzalez is standing by. We'll talk to him next. You're WATCHING THE PRESS now. Welcome back.

We continue to follow the situation at the southern border, including this new video showing CBP officers in Eagle Pass, Texas, cutting a razor wire where migrants, including children, were stranded ever crossing the river. A DHS official tells NBC news that the U.S. border Patrol made 8, 900 apprehensions yesterday alone in El Paso. The Democrat mayor is now warning that the influx of migrants has pushed his city to a breaking point, straining his city's resources and shelter capacity.

Julia Ainsley is in Eagle Pass, Texas, where the mayor there declared a state of emergency last week. Here in Eagle Pass, Texas is the epicenter of what has become a near record breaking migrant surge. Just today we saw hundreds of migrants cross the Rio Grande through treacherous waters that have killed some migrants. Last week they came here.

Here Border Patrol started cutting the wire to let in hundreds of miners who are now behind me. They're being processed. You can see a lot of young children, families. They can get water here, use the bathroom and then they'll be taken to border patrol processing centers.

But according to some new data we just obtained, border processing centers here are over double their capacity, meaning they're trying to release these migrants as quickly as possible so they can take in more and more because they keep coming. You can hear some of the trains that have been coming through here. A lot of the migrants are riding on top of the trains, most of them from Venezuela. When we talk to them, they're happy that they've gotten across, but many are crying because the journey was so dangerous.

They say they was in Mexico. They fell. Cartels were violent. Many of them were kidnapped, assaulted.

They're worried about their children being hurt as well. So from here, they'll be processed and released in the United States. We know that most of the migrants crossing now are not sent back. They're released with a notice to appear and immigration court.

Sometimes that date can be set years into the future. And it's really calling into question the effectiveness of the new B border policies. You know, the COVID 19 policies that really restrict a lot of immigration came to an end in May. They replaced that with something that they thought would be even stricter that would keep a lot of migrants from coming here and claiming asylum.

Instead, these numbers now are just getting so overwhelming that they're getting more and more and releasing more. The word gets back, more migrants come. But I will say some of the migrants we spoke to today, that they wish they hadn't come, but the journey was just so dangerous. I've been covering this issue for almost 10 years now.

I don't think I've ever seen a day like today with these numbers and this kind of desperation. All right, Julie Ainsley. I appreciate our reporting. We appreciate that.

Let's now bring in the Democratic congressman from Texas, Vicente Gonzalez. Congressman, thank you so much for being here. Obviously, you're seeing what we're seeing, these apprehension numbers close to what we saw back in May, before Title 42 ended. At the time you called on the White House to extend Title 40 to.

What's your assessment of how President Biden has handled the migrant issue since that Covid area policy ended? I did. Well, let me tell you, it's a very complicated issue. It's complicated.

Republican administration is complicated. Now, during the Biden administration, what I've been asking for and what I've been proposing is a safe Zone act that creates safe zones on the border of Guatemala, in Central American countries all the way to Colombia, where asylum seekers must process at that juncture. And if we're going to ultimately allow them in the way we are now at our southern border, let's let them fly in from that destination. And it does two things.

It takes the pressure off our border and it removes the cartel element out of the equation. But at the end of the day, we also need to hold Mexico responsible, responsible to guard their southern border, to guard the north of their country, to prevent so many masses of people coming through. We need Central American countries to also cooperate. It takes real diplomacy.

It takes communication, and sometimes it takes the right sanctions against our neighbor to do what's right and be a good neighbor. I don't think they have been. I want to show you a tweet from Governor Abbott from not too long ago. He said, quote, additional buses deployed to Eagle Pass are loading up to send migrants to self declared sanctuary cities.

There's been obviously a lot of controversy about this policy from the Texas governor, but there's no doubt that it has risen awareness in places like New York City and Chicago and other areas where these migrants have been sent to. What is your message to him? Do you think that, do you disagree with this policy? Do you think it was wrong?

Well, let me tell you, I think we all understand that we have a disgraceful problem on our southern border that's gone on for several administrations. Governor Abbott has been grandstanding for years now and he put this, this wire and buoys on the river. They have done zero to stop migration from coming in the southern border of Texas. 0.

At the expense of billions of do of taxpayers, of the people of Texas. So, you know, you can play circus all you want, but it's not bringing any solutions. What I'm proposing is a real solution in southern Mexico and Central America and have real strong different diplomatic consequences. And I think we need to talk to the president of Mexico and have him guard his southern border, protect his airports, protect his coastlines and certainly the massive migration that's coming from the southern border.

We need to get other Central American presidents to cooperate. They do that through diplomacy. You do that, you know, with a stick and a carrot. We need to do that.

What we're seeing, the image that you're seeing on the screen now with this quarantine wire and these buoys that are killing people, this is all an abbot political public stunt that has brought zero to the American people. Zero results. We have more migration coming into southern Texas than we've ever had before. Given that he's put all these wires and buoys and all this, you know, grand understanding to the good people of Texas, but it's really shameful that it's had zero results.

And I think of the day that's what people realize that, hey, we spent billions of dollars. We have all these people, we have all this material and booze and stuff on our side border, but it's had no real effect. In fact, it's had the opposite. We have more migration now than we've ever had.

So we need to look for intelligent ideas and solutions, not the circuit that we're seeing on our southern border. Those wires I'm looking at right now, these boys. What we need to do is hold Mexico responsible and Tell them if you don't guard your southern border, we're going to start sanctioning you with one product at a time, with one issue at a time. So I know your complaints are with Gun Rabbit in terms of the optics of all this, but a lot we're talking about, though, it would be the responsibility of the Biden administration or should they be the ones to the sanctions and also should there be a state of emergency that's declared at the southern border because that would allow the administration to enact, you know, some restrictions and policies that would at least begin the process of trying to reign in this crisis.

I can certainly consider something like that. We're going to separate children from the parents the way they did in the Trump administration. But I do think we have strong order on our southern border, and we need to do it with enforcement. We didn't do it with diplomacy.

We need to do it with potential sanctions to our neighbors. We need to hold President Obrador responsible to guard a southern border and to stop the massive migration that's coming north. It's. It's unbearable.

I've been saying it for years now. I said it during the Trump administration. I'm saying now during the Biden administration. This is not a Democratic or Republican problem.

This is an American problem that we need to come together with common sense solutions. And before you go, Congressman, I do need to get your take on the looming shutdown threat. Obviously, most of this work right now is in the hands of Speaker Kevin McCarthy. But would you be in support of your fellow Democratic colleagues reaching out to a group of moderate Republicans to discharge petition to try and get a continuing resolution passed?

And then separately, would you support a move by Democrats to help Speaker McCarthy out to get something over the finish line? Listen, I'm for anything that makes sense that keeps the government open. It keeps us operating, it keeps us prosperous, it keeps us working and keeps our economy growing. And I'm always looking forward to reaching across the party line to make things better.

If we need to keep our government open, that's a common sense idea. Of course. I'm open to talking to our friends and working things out with friends on the other side of the aisle that are reasonable. We have a lot of great, reasonable Republicans on the other side we should work with.

We have some radicals crazy. That are bad for our country on the extremes. And it's unfortunate that's something that we're dealing with. It's really punishing our country.

Okay. Congressman Vicente Fox. I'm sorry, Vicente Gonzalez. My apologies.

Fair Enough. I appreciate it. Thank you so much for being here. Appreciate it.

The summer strikes is officially over. Over only because it's officially fall. Picket lines continue to crisscross the country. But there may be at least one deal in sight.

You're watching Beat the Press now. Welcome back. We are one step closer to Hollywood being back in action. Overnight, the writers deal of America and Hollywood's top media companies reached a tentative agreement to resolve the nearly 150 day strike.

While the details of the agreement are still unknown, some of the biggest demands included higher pay, higher residuals and protections against the use of artificial intelligence. Meanwhile, in the Midwest, Michigan will get two high profile visits as the UAW and the big three automakers continue their negotiations. Tomorrow, President Biden will show his support for the strike by joining auto workers on the pillar line. And last hour, President Biden echoed his support for the uaw.

I think that now that the industry is roaring back, they should, they should participate in that. And if you take a look at the significant increase in salaries for executives and growth in the industry they should benefit from. So yes, that's what I was. And former President Trump will also head to Michigan.

He'll deliver a speech on Wednesday as part of his counter programming of the second GOP debate. And joining me now is M. Shiver. He's a labor reporter for the New York Times.

So thank you for being here. I mean, how do you expect President Biden and former President Trump's visits in Michigan to be received? It's hard to say. I mean, the UAW typically supports Democrats in presidential elections.

I think in, in 2016, the UAW estimated that about 2/3 of their members had supported the Democratic candidate hook about one third, maybe slightly higher than support Donald Trump. So I think Donald Trump typically, you know, does a little better than a typical Republican. Among UAW members of Ocean assume that it's kind of 50, 50 or even majority for Trump. I think there's still a lot of residual support for Democrats and probably President Biden within that union.

You know, President Biden is often called himself the most pro union president in American history. He's largely been hands off in this particular arrangement ahead of him traveling to the picket line. Do you agree with that assessment? Is he the most pro union president?

Yeah, I think he can make a legitimate claim to being the most pro union president in many decades, certainly. I mean if you look at his, his appointments to the nlrb, the National Labor Relations Boards and how aggressively those appointees have prosecuted labor law violations, if you look at the amount of money that has gone toward pension funds and subsidies to create manufacturing jobs. You look at Department of Labor, I think he made a case that he's been, yeah, probably the most pro union president, certainly many decades. So Sean Fain, of course, the leader of the uiw, he's taking a unique approach to this.

Right. He's opting for a more targeted approach. But is there any concern they're being too aggressive or maybe asking for too much? Yeah, I think it's a real high stakes gamble.

Certainly the workers feel like they have not shared in the benefits of the profit growth that the Big Three have seen over the past decade. So it seems like there's a legitimate basis for them asking for a lot. They also made a lot of concessions in the 2007 through 2009 period during the financial crisis and the Great Recession. And so it's understandable that those workers would want to recover some of those concessions.

On the other hand, the industry is obviously going through a very important, very high stakes transition of its own from gas powered cars, internal combustion engines, to electric vehicles. The industry is already a bit behind domestic competitors like Tesla, certainly important competitors, BYD and China. So it's a very, you know, a very sensitive moment for both sides. I think the one wrinkle here to keep in mind is already the question to ask is how much labor costs actually trickle down to the bottom line.

It is certainly the case that the Big Three have significantly higher labor costs than Tesla, than some of the foreign automakers who have factories in the United States. But because these things are so, these production facilities are so capital intensive, they rely so much on technology, only a small portion of that cost, cost disadvantage actually trickles down the bottom line. So they have a little more room to maneuver than you would think just by looking directly at the labor costs. It's interesting because the UAWs get to endorse anyone.

And the 2024 presidential race, especially given that there isn't really going to be a Democratic primary, is that significant? I wouldn't say significant, but I wouldn't overread it. The UW definitely traditionally endorses Democrats. They Clinton, Barack Obama, but as they're on the verge of endorsing Donald Trump.

The way I read that lack of endorsement at this point was the UAW has been very supportive of Biden's clean energy policies. They were very supportive of all the subsidies that the administration sought for the transition to electric vehicles. And they felt like there should be more strings attached to all those tens of billions of dollars that are flowing in the auto industry. So it was more about like, we want to see you make good on your promises.

And if you do deliver in the way that we want you to deliver, endorsement will, you know, there's a decent chance that an endorsement will be forthcoming. But it's more about kind of show us before we make any sudden moves here. You know, we don't have that much time. Only about 20 seconds.

Union membership only really about 10% right now. What does all these very public strikes mean for labor movement going forward? Well, I think what we've historically seen is that enthusiasm for unions and labor organizing and strikes can be very contagious. You know, when one group does it in one industry, people in another industry see.

Oh, I can do that, too. Maybe it's worth what I mean, maybe it's media worth. Maybe it's media on strike. So this can really spread.

And historically we see things spread very quickly. Excellent job answering that question so briefly. No. Shiber, thank you so much for being appreciated and thank you for being with us this hour.

Back tomorrow with more meat to press now, but NBC News coverage starts with Hallie Jackson right now, everyone. I'm Dylan Dryer, co host of the third hour of Day and mom to three wild boys. I've learned a lot my years as a parent, mostly that I don't have it all figured out yet. And I'm not the only one.

This is my new podcast, the Parent Chat. Each week I sit down with someone new for honest conversation and real world advice about parenting. I'm over here just like winging it. Hey, I'm just trying not to do my own tip.

I want to give you advice on us parent chat on YouTube and wherever you get your podcasts.