Mexico's Cartel Problem

On February 22nd, Mexican security forces killed Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes, known as El Mencho, the leader of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel. Within hours, CJNG retaliated with over 250 roadblocks across 20 Mexican states and set fires in Puerto Vallarta. The message was clear: the cartel’s reach extends far beyond any single leader.But this isn’t just a story about one dead kingpin. Mexican cartels collectively control an estimated 35% of the country’s territory. They function as states within a state, providing goods and services in areas where the central government can’t or won’t. CJNG and the Sinaloa Cartel dominate, but the problem is structural, not personal.The U.S. has been fighting the war on drugs since 1971, and the fentanyl crisis has only raised the stakes. There’s growing talk in Washington about military action on Mexican soil, but Mexico remembers that much of the American Southwest used to be theirs. Sending in troops would jeopardize decades of intelligence and law enforcement cooperation for what looks like a problem without a military solution.We discuss the history from El Chapo to El Mencho, why cartels look eerily similar to failed-state militias in the Middle East, and whether there’s any realistic path forward that doesn’t make things worse. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit globaltantrum.substack.com