Michael Howell: Oil Shock, Bitcoin Outperformance, and Why the Global Liquidity Cycle Is Turning

Michael Howell joins me to break down one of the most important macro setups in the world right now: falling global liquidity, rising oil prices, a growing debt maturity wall, and the changing relationship between the Fed, the Treasury, and the global monetary system. We cover: • Why Michael believes the global liquidity cycle peaked in late 2025 • How the Iran war and oil shock are draining liquidity from financial markets • Why oil could move much higher from here • What the debt maturity wall means for financial stability • Why the Fed’s reserve management purchases matter • How stablecoins could re-dollarize the world • Why China may be moving toward a different monetary model • How Michael is thinking about asset allocation in this environment • Why bitcoin and gold remain core long-term holdings This is a big-picture conversation on liquidity, monetary inflation, commodity shocks, bond markets, stablecoins, and bitcoin’s role in a changing global system. Follow Michael on X → https://x.com/crossbordercap Cross Border Capital → https://crossbordercapital.com Capital Wars Substack → https://capitalwars.substack.com/ GL Index Data Provider → https://glindexes.com Stack Bitcoin using your home equity → https://joinhorizon.com See your home's Bitcoin potential → https://joinhorizon.com/calculator Schedule a 1-on-1 consultation → https://calendly.com/d/cryw-39y-2j4/horizon-consultation Follow Joe on X → https://x.com/JoeConsorti 00:00 Introduction to Global Liquidity and Oil Shock 02:59 Impact of Oil Prices on Liquidity and Markets 05:44 Gold and Oil Price Dynamics 08:52 Yield Curve Outlook and Market Reactions 11:43 Bitcoin's Performance Amidst Market Turbulence 14:49 Federal Reserve's Reserve Management Purchases 18:02 Stablecoins and the Future of Currency 20:58 Debt Maturity Wall and Financial Stability 27:11 Understanding the Global Liquidity Cycle 29:08 The Debt-Liquidity Nexus Explained 30:56 The Everything Bubble and Its Implications 34:28 Geopolitical Tensions and Monetary Systems 38:56 China's Economic Strategy and the Yuan 42:30 The Evolving Role of the Fed and Treasury 50:23 Asset Allocation in a Changing Liquidity Cycle Disclaimer: Horizon is a technology company that helps users buy and custody their Bitcoin and does not directly provide financial or investment services. Horizon connects homeowners with licensed home equity investment providers but does not act as an agent or broker for the homeowner or any third party. Homeowners should consult their financial, tax, or legal advisor before making any investment decision. For additional information, please refer to our FAQ, terms and conditions, and our preferred providers' websites.