Michael Weissman on Lab Leak and Science

An influential article by Jonathan Pekar and 28 other authors published in Science in 2022 claimed that Bayesian analysis of the molecular phylogeny of early SARS-CoV-2 cases indicated that the likelihood that two successful introductions to humans had occurred was greater than the likelihood that just one had occurred. Michael Weissman explains his EJW article, which discusses a fundamental error hiding in plain sight and initially pointed out by Angus McCowan. Weissman uses a simple analogy to explain the error. Correcting the error using the data, model, and simulations of the original paper reverses the implication of the analysis-the single-introduction likelihood becomes greater than the two-introductions likelihood. That undermines the article’s supposed support for natural origin. Weissman is interviewed by James M. Robins of Harvard University. Weissman and Robins discuss the editorial practices at Science, which, they suggest, ought to retract the article.