Michel de Montaigne’s thoughts on risk

In his pursuit of reason, effectiveness and happiness, Michel de Montaigne (1533-1592) devoted extensive efforts to assess risks; he recorded his reflections and conclusions in essays like “On one saying of Caesar.” Montaigne refers to a saying from Caesar just to start his discussion about risk. He wants to establish the role played by reason and luck in human achievement and happiness. Here is the saying from Caesar that Montaigne is employing to start the discussion: “It is not for the well-born to go to war, but for the born fortunate, because participants in war will find it hard to escape misfortune.” Let me first clarify that Montaigne’s wording “for the well-born” does not only refer to aristocrats or wealthy individuals. Montaigne also means people of ability and virtue, people who possess skills and work hard. He is referring to any person who can expect success in life under normal circumstances. Montaigne uses this particular saying of Caesar because it is making a striking comparison between peacetime and wartime. In peacetime, that is, in normal circumstances, one can expect skilful, hard-working people to do well. One can expect them to do far better than incompetent, lazy people. Incompetent, lazy people might purchase a lottery ticket and win a large prize. That’s conceivable but highly unlikely. The odds are heavily tilted against individuals who do not possess skills and do not desire to work. Winning at the lottery is not a sound strategy for succeeding in life. Montaigne then points to the second part in Caesar’s saying, the part that refers to wartime. The odds change massively during wartime because random death invalidates the value of productive skills and hard work. Even a genius computer programmer can get randomly shot in a battle. His knowledge and dedication to productiveness are irrelevant under mortar fire. There were no mortars in Caesar’s lifetime but battles were equally unpredictable. Random death increases the value of good luck. Montaigne draws the conclusion that, in normal times, one can trust productiveness to work in one’s favour. He says that fortune presents us challenges and opportunities, but that it is up to us to confront the challenges and seize the opportunities. Nonetheless, Montaigne warns us against trusting reason to the maximum extent. Even if you develop skills and work very hard, luck still plays a role. Circumstances might turn against you even if your plans are well-thought. Montaigne formulates his warning in the following way: “Men believe that they control their own fortune through their own industry and foresight, but those cannot always counteract malign influences.” Indeed, it does not pay to be arrogant because bad luck will always play a role. Nevertheless, I have observed that the role played by luck tends to diminish over time. The value of skills and hard work tends to win in the long run. Here is the link to the original article: https://johnvespasian.com/michel-de-montaigne-thoughts-on-risk/