Before we start today's show, I have a very special invitation for all of you out there. We want to see you live in Los Angeles at the Palace Theater on August 24th for our 10th anniversary Megala Show. This is going to be your chance to come be a part of a live podcast episode presented by our friends at Sleeper, and it is going to be, dare I say, a great time. It's going to be fantastic, friends, fun, and we're also working with a partnership with Pristine Option and Fantasy Cares.
There's going to be some giveaways at the show. We're going to be throwing out some signed jerseys, and there will be a grand prize giveaway live at the Megala Show. Must be present to win a Cooper Cup signed helmet and a signed jersey. And you can get tickets right now at BallersLive.com.
They will sell out. This is coming up very, very, very soon, and we genuinely thank you. We want to see you. We want to give you that fist pump, answer your questions, and have a crazy time.
BallersLive.com. Welcome to the Fantasy Footballers Podcast with your hosts, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike Wright. Welcome in. The Fantasy Footballers back with you.
Jason Moore, Mike Wright, Andy Holloway. It's Friday. You're holding it back? No, I was actually typing, too.
Ow, see if you can throw that Friday drop on my board. Do we still have that drop on my board? Of course we do. Welcome in.
A very extensive library. Nothing falls through the cracks. Yeah, we are back to five shows a week, which is why we're here on this fine Friday morning, August 2nd. Fantasy Football is, well, it's here.
We're reaching the preseason, and you hold your breath for the injury reports this time of year. You want everything to go well. And, look, I don't know how to tell you this, Jay, but I'm going to win another championship this year. Oh, that's awesome.
I assume that's some home league you're not going to in. Actually, it's a legal record, and it's not about you so much. It's just you'll be one of 11 other people to not win. So you'll have a bunch of people to kind of commiserate with.
Well, that is what happens in every league. Most people don't win, and one does. There we go. I knew it was there somewhere.
I'll dug it out of the archives. Thank you, Al. Put it back in the box. Al's not going to be at the live show, right?
Oh, he'll be there. The whole crew's coming. Everybody's going to be there, so that'll be fun. What else have we got going on today?
We have a pretty entertaining quick question, I think, talking about fraudulent offenses and making our predictions on the offenses that people are counting on that might go south. And then it's a mid-round madness episode. So we'll be mentioning a couple names, each of us, a couple names that we think are values in the middle rounds. And if you hit on one, like if you really hit on one of those middle-round players, it can make such a difference for your team.
Absolutely. The Ultimate Draft Kit available right now at ultimatedraftkit.com. If you want to go jump in, it is August, so don't be a fool and fall behind when you get ready for your draft. UltimateDraftKit.com.
For that, you can follow us on X, at the FFBallers. And we are updating our timeline with lots of articles and information and news and breaking news and videos and things like that over on X. I think that about covers it. You guys want to jump into the quick question?
Yes, sir. Well, Danny Walsh. Good old Danny. Old Dan Walsh.
Oh, we call him Dan Walsh. He goes by Danny on IG. Mom calls him Daniel. Yeah, that's how he was born.
Who is your fraudulent offense of the year? So, this is kind of a scary prediction. It is. It's a scary prediction to make.
Because it happens every year. Yeah, it does. There's teams that let you down. I mean, I remember the Cleveland Browns with OBJ and Jarvis Landry and Baker coming off his rookie season and all the hype going into the year.
And they let people down. They sure did. And teams like the Patriots this year can't really let you down. So, when you're talking about a fraudulent offense, it's one that has to look good right now.
It has to have pieces that are important for fantasy that are maybe overdrafted. And it's not going to work out as well as maybe we hope. Yeah. Like, they are led by Baker Mayfield.
It is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. I think that there is a true regression coming for this team. They've had, you know, some turnover. It feels at this moment like Dave Canales is a magic man, as we have seen him two years in a row, resurrect the careers for two separate quarterbacks and some offenses.
He has now gone from Tampa Bay. It's not that I think that Tampa Bay is going to completely fall on its face. I just think that Baker really overproduced last year. He actually struggled immensely against Mann.
In fact, he averaged 33 passing yards per game versus Mann. And now the league has a whole year of tape to kind of study the tendencies of what was going on down there, where did Baker struggle. I think that will absolutely factor in the inefficiencies of Rashad White. Like, they kept getting away with those things last year.
I think there's just, there's too much against Baker. And this is not a, I'm not drafting Mike Evans, or I'm not willing to take a chance on Chris Goblin. I just think that they will. I don't think you're going to get Mike Evans that you saw last year, where it was, what was he, 13?
13 receiving touchdowns up from six the year before. I think that Evans can still be of eight to 10 range, but where he was the top five guy, and Baker was this, like, a streaming darling in certain situations. I think that that is going to be harder this year. Very logical, Mike, unfortunately.
Very logical. Probably very true. That team is, I think they did more for fantasy than they did make their mark as a top tier offense. And so, you know, Evans was great in part because of how late you had to draft him, too.
Now you're going to have to pay up and bank on it. Jason, what's the offense you want to throw out there? Yeah, the offense that, you know, when we're looking at these for me, and I'm trying to predict how could it go wrong, it's usually kind of like what Mike just did. It's looking at a quarterback that maybe isn't as great as talented.
And so, for me, that's the Jacksonville Jaguars. I'm still not convinced that Trevor Lawrence is worth the money he just received. He is a fine NFL quarterback. He's not a bad NFL quarterback.
But I don't believe he's a superstar. And losing Calvin Ridley and replacing him with Brian Thomas, a rookie, Gabe Davis, you know, who has, in his own right, not been... Very fit. Very good at cardio on running routes.
Super good at running routes. You know, this is a team that struggled down the stretch last year. If you remember, they started out, they were on pace for the number one seed and get that playoff bye week, and then they completely collapsed down the stretch. Lost, what was it, like six of their last seven games.
I feel like their offense got a little bit figured out. Their run game became inefficient. And so, if things start to go poorly, if they were figured out at the end of last year and it continues into the season, I don't know that... You know, I don't see this offense taking a step forward.
So, if that's kind of neutral, and I can see a world where this offense just struggles. You know, Trevor Lawrence is a first-read type of thrower. You know, only two have a faster time to throw and a higher first-read target percentage rate. This is kind of like a scripted, here's what you're going to do, and if the defense figures it out, like, you know, obviously, it works for two of them pretty well.
If Tyreek Hill were on my team, I would have a lot of first-read targets. Yeah, where is he? Go to him. So, I just see how it could go poorly if some of these wide receivers that they're banking on don't step up.
Then, I think, it could be in store for a disappointed offense. So, he's at Jacksonville. Farad might be too strong a word for my pick for this quick question, but... Yours is sizzling.
I think letdown... Like a fresh plate of fajitas. I think letdown is the right word for it. It's Buffalo.
Thank you, Mike. That's a very good sound effect. Look, a lot has been made of whether Stephon Diggs has lost it. But the conversation with Buffalo has nothing to do with what stage of Stephon Diggs' career he is in.
The conversation with Buffalo is can you take Jefferson off of Minnesota and have the same production from Cousins? Can you take Amon Ra away from Goff and have the same production? There's only one quarterback. I mean, can you take Chase away from Burrow and expect the same kind of production on offense?
No. No. And what made Buffalo prolific was the fact they had an alpha in the offense. You talk about wide receivers with Jacksonville.
Right now, we're sitting here with Keon Coleman, Curtis Samuel and Clear Secure. Those are not foundational pieces of a wide receiver room. Those are wide receiver 2-3s that, you know, Patrick Mahomes could figure out how to make sure it works. He's the one we've seen lose, Tyreek Hill, and still figure it out.
But we're expecting Dalton Kincaid to take a step up, whereas Kelsey, when he lost Tyreek, Kelsey was already the GOAT. And Buffalo, their identity changed over the back of the year. Yes, they won some games, but yes, there were some flaws in Joe Brady's offense to get figured out over time. They went from 3rd and turnover rate to 15th under Brady.
The more pressure you put on Josh Allen, which is going to be a natural byproduct of taking away an alpha from this roster, there's not always a guaranteed great outcome. And so, you know, weeks 11 through 18 with Brady, they were 31st in pass rate. Teams adjust, and then they get adjusted too, and then you have to adjust again, right? Like, this is what's happened time and time again for New England when they had Brady, and for Kansas City with Mahomes.
The question will be, can Josh Allen adjust well enough under the pressure when they start locking down James Cook a little bit out of the backfield? Like, there's a big difference between a midseason transition that kind of works out and prolific fantasy numbers. So I think the Buffalo offense as a whole might not have as many players to deliver for you. I've started hesitating a little bit with even how high Dalton Kincaid ranked, because the team has come out and once again put their, you know, their emotional backing behind Dawson Knox, and it just puts a little fear in you.
There's not a Dawson Knox competing for Travis Kelsey and Sam Laporta and Mark Andrews and George Kittle's targets or opportunities on the field. I just have, I have some hesitation with Buffalo. It's why I went out and I put my money where my mouth was. I traded Josh Allen away in a dynasty league where he has been dominant.
I could totally pay the price for that. I hope you do. It was a time to cash in and get a player like Kyler in a first-round pick, and I just have question marks around Buffalo. And, you know, you get to the end of this year, and, you know, we don't know which one of these wide receivers is going to make the biggest mark.
And not knowing it now means that, you know, Josh Allen's going to have to figure it out too. Yeah, obviously with the change in their opposite philosophy at the end of the year, which is not usually good for fantasy, and the loss of their clear-cut wide receiver one for this team, there are definitely yellow flags to overcome. How good is Josh Allen? That's it.
And I think it's pretty darn good. Yeah, and I think it's okay to carve him out a little bit from the, because we know he can get the production, even if the team is in a top five offense. Josh Allen can still be the number one quarterback. We know that to be true.
But if the offense struggles a little bit, maybe you don't get as much ceiling, maybe you get a down game here or there, and maybe you can't predict who else to start in the offense. Although I know James Cook should have every opportunity to really have a breakout game. He's still got to get it done in their identity from the end of last year. It has to work going into this year and not be adjusted to.
I'm very excited to watch Buffalo. It's like, wow, we hate the praise. Oh, Patrick Holmes figures it out. And yeah, I mean, football-wise, yeah, they figured it out.
But fantasy-wise, the second half of the year, they did not figure it out. Nor was Mahomes good for fantasy. That's what I'm saying. Yeah, the team, the Kansas City Chiefs, but we're not playing NFL football.
We're playing fantasy football. So those doubts have started to just kind of creep into the back of my head of, is like Josh Allen still my number one quarterback for a redraft? But there's that, instead of it being a full 100% conviction, of course we're going to go with this. It's if there's really no number one, if no one makes the jump to be their go-to guy, which we're going to talk to Alkin Kay here in a second.
If no one makes that jump, does Josh Allen figure it out? We talked about him a little bit at length. Josh Allen, in this week's Dynasty podcast, of if a pretty easy comp for Josh Allen's career is Cam Newton. Like, they're both big, strong, Superman-type players.
And this is when Cam Newton disappeared. Now, I don't think Josh Allen can disappear the way that Cam Newton has because of injuries. Cam Newton got way more hurt than Josh Allen has been thus far in his career. So maybe that took the toll.
But I just saw Josh Allen talking to Kay Adams about running the ball. And it was hinted at, maybe I need to do that a little bit less. He's still going to run, but it's just, if he's thinking about that more and more, and no one is taking the leap out there, is he the locked-in number one guy? And then you say, well, where's the other 3,000 yards going?
Where's the other 3,300 yards going? And then, hilariously, not by much, he's throwing a ton of touchdowns, but they have gone down four straight years. So it's just in the back of my head saying, hey, does he profile as one? Is Colman going to do it as a rookie?
You know, Curtis Samuel, we've seen enough Curtis Samuel to know that he will be helpful. Probably not fundamental. Yeah, I think that's fair. We might disagree on this, but here in a little while, we're going to talk about Dalton Kincaid.
I think we'll emerge as the clear number one receiver. He's been hanging for all 4,300 yards. So that's a good point. News and notes from around the league.
Presented by USAA Insurance. All right, we're jumping into the news, and we do have the Ducers here over there in Ducers Alley. Putting the Ducers Alley over there. Falcon.
But we've got everybody in the building today. Falcon, don't. Did we enjoy the Hall of Fame game, everybody? Can I get some nods over there?
What? Oh, that's a big yawn from Josh. Josh the Axelor. What is happening back there?
That's pretty good. Pretty good. No, we have to. Give me a sag card.
What's going on? We didn't get a football time yesterday. For good reason. You're reserving it.
But we are underway in the preseason, and we got some preseason news yesterday. Justin Herbert week-to-week with a plantar fascia injury. Uh-oh. I've been about year-to-year on that same injury.
Doctors have recommended two weeks in a boot, followed by a graduated return to playing, with the expectation he'll be ready for the start of the season. Does he get, like, a diploma when it comes time to play? Or, yeah, you like that? Awesome.
Yeah. I told that joke in my head. I don't know if I even... He graduated return.
Yeah, no. Even I held that one back. Jesus, it's a swoosh. The Lad McConkie high brain has been building steam, picking up steam.
But Herbert missed time last year. Here's Herbert with another injury. Is this just kind of like a pause and wait and see and hope and pray? Yeah, I mean, it's certainly not good news.
It lowers, you know, it raises the risk rating of Justin Herbert and Lad McConkie and the whole offense. That being said, the expectation is he should be ready for the regular season. So it's better now than if it was three weeks from now, then it would be a real problem. I, you know, when I'm looking at my drafts, like, we're going to talk about Lad here in a little bit.
I'm still in on Lad until if we hear that there's a setback or something happening that will cause actual on-the-field problems. I will, however, adjust Justin Herbert a little bit. Do you account for risk? Yeah, he's in a range right now late in drafts where sometimes I've snagged him and hopes that he has a monstrous season.
But if he's dealing with, you know, a nagging plantar fascia injury, I'm worried about his... Focaccia. Focaccia. That sounds so good.
One of the reasons we have olive oil on that. Is that the remedy? Yeah, I think you just rub some olive oil and it'll be fine. Justin, get back out of there.
I'm not trying that. But we have risk ratings in the UDK for a reason and I've adjusted mine a little bit just because, you know, Herbert, like, I might tell you Herbert was going to miss two games. He's off the board. There's other quarterbacks to make a decision.
And my hope for Herbert, look, he's an awesome player, but my hope with this Greg Roman-Harbaugh offense is that they are going to unleash his wheels a little bit more. He is mobile. He is very able to put that focaccia on the field, show you how delicious it is. But if that hampers the running game for him, the mobility...
That's a good point. You know... me a little sad uh josh jacob's in practice he's dealt with a couple of uh off-season soft issues with groin injury now and missed the first week of otas with a hamstring injury is he is the website updated groinindex.com i'm checking one of the more illustrious websites the first okay the first edition to groinindex.com in 2024 yeah the groin there'll be more that is the quote from josh jacob's i do have a question i got a question for our resident packer fan over there because not only josh jacob's in his practice but they announced some white alternative helmets for the packers did you see those no i'm gonna go look i uh i sent them to you al because so i wanted to get your official out of 10 rating for that uh for that alternate uniform so have you found them not yet okay well keep looking guess i should have tagged you in those but mike you saw i did they're fired i thought they looked i did like them i like the helmet those are clean i feel like it looks the helmet was the whole thing yeah that's what i don't like it makes their logo look like they're georgia the college like that's all i see i'm gonna go six and a half or seven out of 10 yeah okay yeah it's hard when you change an iconic uniform like the packers are probably the number one most iconic uniform packers cowboys bears what other teams are my favorite sealers there's a few that like when you change a little bit like for instance if you make the sealers like a bumblebee or something it's a little disruptive i know you love the bubble i do like it too that was also a throwback yeah so it's an og yeah um all right don't mix in also recovering from a minor quadricep injury beyond the foreman we got news that he was released from the hospital after he went to the hospital the neck injury that would be brown's running back part of the committee mix over there in cleveland i don't think i have any other news i think that's all i got so i'm catching you up if the other foreman wasn't there if you know this let's say this was long term or whatever does that change your view on uh ford because i know we've had some debate mike and i you know think from ford will be very involved to start the year a good late round um value it doesn't change like i think i agree with you on the pick i think the pick is fine with jerome ford i think it doesn't change my view of last year and he's okay you know that's my view i mean it's not like when cream wasn't there before they brought back to jerome ford was like top five top ten back or something i just think he's got a cap that's all yeah he does he's not an elite superstar athlete um by the way you see three cohen shout out to yeah that's not in the news the dinosaur hunter is retired yeah and uh he tried to come back he's only 29 but uh the major 209 and that was the problem that literally literally the problem he says he was up at like 207 208 209 we're talking lbc was playing at 188 when he was this you know quote i let myself get fat yeah so that's a quote in there that's the best of us bro that was today's news and notes presented by usaa insurance learn more at usaa.com slash insurance we'll take a break come back with some mid-round madness all right value picks in the middle rounds i've got two names i'm gonna throw out i want to get you guys's feedback i want you to press me on these guys and we'll do some adp this or that with these names because they're you know right now the word out of dallas has gotten me i was already pretty firmly on the ezekiel elliott side of the backfield rotation and then now with talk of royce freeman being the number two and rico dattle battling out with malik davis and you know all the other names seem firmly behind so zeke is the first name zeke is a 10th round draft pick right now and this is a top five offense so zeke is one name the other one is an eighth round pick also had some camp buzz to kind of be the exclamation point on the end of last season when he was a league winner for my team and many others and that would be the titan 10 off the board right now in the eighth round david njoku of the cleveland browns those two names i think are players that i will be targeting we've got a legal record team or i do where i traded a lot of early picks away so i'm looking for diamonds in the rough right there are situations like that out there where you're really needing to not take a big chance but get some more guaranteed production i think both of these guys are values of their adp i'll jump in here of uh i'm in on the zeke pick as well it is it's so super nasty this is a stinky stinky pick but this is doesn't feel good when we're looking at running backs in the double digits if you can attach that to a team that projects to be a really good offense that's like that should be an edge that you're looking for and the cowboys would project to be at least a top 10 offense and they're to me they're top 10 offense if things go wrong uh so i'm in on zeke the the situation behind him is it's so murky of like we went literally one day the report was royce freeman who recently like he's brand new to the team just a couple months ago royce freeman sounds like he could be positioned to be the backup the number two on this team while while dowdle and davis battle it out for the next and then the very next day you had a cowboys beat reporter come out and say it's not a question rico dowdle once the pads went on rico dow is the best running back on the team right now he also followed up with i don't think that they turned into the rb1 he's just giving his observation of the guy's talent of the 26 year old yeah what i'm looking at right now doubt was the best so it is it is a mess hopefully we get that the backup situation figured out but in the meantime zeke will be the number one guy he is nothing remotely close to the elite fantasy football zeke that we all loved and drafted years over years however with opportunity in front of him he's shown he could still take that like last year from uh from weeks 13 on he was getting 21 opportunities a game he was the rb9 in that stress because volume is the king at the running back position and that was the the ability was availability of i can handle this and i think that he can still handle it it's just how well will he actually produce with that at a 10th round draft price to me it doesn't matter like he he can easily pop up into being a top 24 running back yeah i mean if it is it is kind of gross but he shouldn't be as low as he is in in adp not what the office is attached to and the opportunities he's going to get at the end of the year that when they got down into the red zone the cowboys threw the ball they threw it and threw it through when they got down near the end zone and they did that at the end of the year because they failed at the beginning of the year tony pollard was given so many opportunities well if zeke can still do that one thing and score those touchdowns down here that's what they're going to start the season trying to do they're going to try to run it in it's the better thing to do when you get into the the red zone to the five zone you know that's where offices usually work a little bit better this offensive line should be better this year than last year if you look at the depth around him rico dal might be a better running back than him but he's not going to usurp the veteran best friend uh the quintessential cowboy because he's not like he's twice as good as zeke and there's just no way to keep rico down off the field he's you know he'll he'll spell him and if you look at who's going near in adp the four runners there's a lot in common you got these are the four back back back austin eckler nick chubb ezekiel elliot and gus edwards and all of them are kind of they're older they have big problems but it's like okay what about the offenses the commander's offense isn't going to be good we don't expect nick chubb is coming off a devastating knee injury won't be ready to go zeke is literally on a top five offense yeah they were number one in red zone plays per game last year so you talk about opportunity i think the gus edwards v zeke question is a really good one both of them are past the prime as um as running backs go both of them are grinders um both of them pose or position themselves as huge red zone threats like i think that'd be a really tough decision for people to make especially if things sift out depth charge wise for both teams like in practice gus and dobbins the first one together they split first team reps like it's pretty easy for me because gus does not usually catch passes and zeke elliot will you're very zeke on i'm easily i'm not bullish about zeke i do think that there is a limit to his limit to his ceiling he won't be on a lot of my rosters but if i'm you know this is another one of those zero rb type of guys you know if you're going seven eight rounds without getting a running back and all of a sudden the 10th round you get a starting fine running back like that's that's a strong total fantasy points at the end of a week build that you can do if i've got a bunch of running backs ahead of them i would rather you know i'd rather be taking a jonathan brooks type that could surprise and have some unknown ceiling because he's really young talented explosive player i think gus edwards versus zeke comes down to do you think that gus edwards will have so many more touchdowns than ezekiel elliot which i guess not impossible that there's going to be so much volume for the chargers and when they get in close they're going to try and run it in will can his touchdowns outpace the production of zeke catching the ball that's the question you have to ask yourself when debating and i do want to mention for njoku i just think that the opportunity for him to continue the breakout is there i want to put that out there because not only do you have one of the most prolific endings of the season where like you know that matters like it matters to show what you can put on film but also like a lot has been made of like his splits are worse with deshaun monson it wasn't there during that stretch that's true but like his watson splits were like you're still over 600 yards you still have five touchdowns and without him you were a lot better but like if that's your floor is that you're a plus 600 yard five touchdown player with the upside that we saw at the end of the year to take over the league i just think titan 10 is kind of floor for njoku where are you guys with him when you look at you know bowers going ahead of him or the goddards in that range right i don't feel like njoku is getting vaulted to this place where it's just everybody is riding four weeks of last year well there's there's a player who's going right around david njoku that i'm going to talk about later that i'll take over him the the hardest part for me what david njoku is he is a player where it's it should work like this isn't i don't have the conviction of of a full season of evidence or at least just even even some glimpses of when he was playing with watson of oh yeah deshaun watson aka voldemore will utilize david njoku like they like joe flackwood at the end of the season and so because of his age when the breakout is coming up like he's entering year eight and that was really the first time where you've seen david njoku dominant for a stretch of time you've seen plays and games and things like that uh because the dude is he checks so many boxes of what you want for a breakout tight end but because he is in this position of it should work and i have one more tight end that i'm a little more confident i'm probably passing on his target pace was 156 targets into not the final four weeks the final 11 weeks his pace was 156 targets so you talk about intentionality or listening to the head coach say i'm gonna get in the football well the thing about that quote with the i'm gonna get in the football it's great to hear from um you know you want manufactured touches for tight ends you want a design game plan where you're saying we are trying to get the ball in the hands but as he did talk he talked about how you know the quarterbacks have different efficiency as the play goes on you just got to you know go where you're going and that is a big difference between what we saw with flacco versus what we saw with deshaun watson and you know you can get that longer stretch but the truth is when deshaun watson left uh he's from week 11 is when he was injured and gone so 11 through 17 which is seven games i mean he was on pace for 167 targets that's elite wide receiver he was on pace for 104 receptions i mean this was unbelievable usage for flacco just constantly you know there's pressure boom outlet outlet outlet outlet i don't know two other guys too in that's right sure it was only part of it but you also like like not taking away what njoku did but there was also a you could look at that time of the schedule of seeing which teams were struggling against the tight end position it was something like i mean you identified look at david's schedule yeah no you're right this should happen tight ends it's a place you can do that with so because that was a part of it as well i mean it should work it's really hard for me because i know the name is it part of today's show yes all right so we'll pivot it's funny today's also it's a tight end show because we're talking about the who's the value in the middle rounds and you kind of have to pick your tight end poison in the middle rounds often yeah and ours are later than yours jason but the uh jake ferguson's name we go into mike's two picks but that is such a dichotomy of ability like ferguson was red zone touchdown efficiency yeah the joku is athleticism targets like even with watson he's at 100 target pace like you're talking about two totally different types of tight ends going in the exact same spot yes so talk about your two names so i would i would 100 agree with that of that if it works for david njoku like if it if watson was on the sideline and went oh i didn't realize that guy could do that i'm going to feature him njoku was someone who could make a gigantic leap and like legit finish the top four tight end i don't know that jake ferguson can make that type of a jump but he is he was dak crescott's second favorite target last year 102 targets it was the second most on the team that's good he finished at the tight end uh number eight over 760 yards and it comes down to just how they utilize him off the seam like he gets moved around a lot he gets used in the slot a good amount and then there's just a fact of where where njoku's going into season eight this is season three for ferguson and essentially like it's his second year as a starter his first year it was dalton schultz and he and ferguson was barely on the field so for game action i mean that was the first time that ferguson's ever been the focal point almost similar to like a rookie and looking at can he get better uh over that time i guess you do have technically a luke schoonmaker who was a second round pick tight end who was just hurt all of last year maybe he somehow gets worked in more but jake ferguson like he led all tight ends in red zone targets like he is an absolute go-to player number three in the nfl of all receivers in red zone yeah so highly utilized where exactly in the in the green area for the red zone and then turns into the green zone and he he actually underperformed in terms of how many touchdowns he should score he should score over seven uh meanwhile all five of his touchdowns came up into the red zone you guys where are you guys with jake ferguson before i bring him by the name uh he is one of the the later guys i'm fine i'm fine pulling the trigger on either one of those pick one yeah they're going to the same spot same spot 805 i think i would i would take njoku over ferguson simply because of the extreme athleticism and the hope that he does become hyper targeted number two in the offense i i like both over bowers definitely yeah in some yeah some leagues i mean you know you know me i don't i don't do i don't do the rookie tight end i just don't do it and obviously i'll take an l on sam laporta last year and then i will take no other l's in my life um so far so i'm you know 99 and one but uh yeah there's a long time i'm uh i'm fine with either of those guys i i think they both have avenues and i had ferguson a lot last year i've watched that when they i mean he is a very very vital piece of how they work in the red zone he should have had so many more touchdowns and so maybe that's a talent issue and he's just not good enough to come down with those big balls but also he's going into third year getting better more acclimated and you know those things just bounce the wrong way some years and bounce the right way other years you will have opportunities to score touchdowns it's ironic because if zeke does really really well zeke is a good value ferguson won't be because both of those guys to me are coming on the backs of touchdowns it's pretty pretty interesting to see them tie together like that right so it's like do you think the running game is going to work in the red zone or do you think you're going to have to rely on the passing in the red zone again uh the other name i want to talk about and he keeps getting talked about on this show for good reason and yet he is his adp still holds pretty strong in the sixth round at the rb19 is james connor of the arizona cardinal where's he at our uh 602 on sleeper running back 19 uh yes james connor has a lot of red flags that we like to avoid of how old he is he's going into year eight like these are being 29 and going into year eight these are that's age cliff that's season cliff but it doesn't it hasn't mattered yet for james connor i think we were scared when he was 27 going into year six we've been scared every year of james connor's career year And, like, I want to start the conversation of talking about what's going on with the backups for the Arizona Cardinals. Trey Benson, exciting rookie.
He was my number one rookie running back. Like, I liked him more than Brooks. And they took him in the third round. And yet we still haven't heard.
Like, it's still a jumble. They have Michael Carter there. They have Trey Benson there. Amari DiMarcato, the fab dumpster that is DiMarcato.
Oh, my gosh. The fab dumpster? He took all my money last year. He burned all your fab last year.
He took all of my fab, and I needed him. He did nothing. Om, nom, nom, nom, nom, nom, nom, nom. He just threw it in the garbage.
Oh, my gosh. But, like, his name is still in the mix. Everything about the backup running back situation is, it's all up in the air, which it points further to. James Conner, for this year, is solidified.
He is the guy. This was his first season of over 1,000 rushing yards, which is pretty wild because he keeps getting close. And over the final five games of the season, he was averaging over 22 fantasy points, nearly 24 opportunities, 100 rushing yards, and 1.5 touchdowns in that stretch. This is an absolute dominant player over that time.
And the last two years, really, we've seen James Conner. And on top of that, the Cardinals offense is going to be one of those that takes one of the biggest steps that we've seen from the previous year of a full season of healthy Kyler, an addition of a true number one alpha in Marvin Harrison Jr. Like, James Conner, to me, where he's going in round six is just, it's a free top 20 running back to me. He is, uh...
With room to be even higher. Those five-game stretch, he would have had 353 attempts. They just rode him. He's going to miss a couple games.
I understand that. He was great when Kyler came back. It was awesome last year. This team relies on him.
He is a leader of the team. When we first, you know, were putting together our mid-round madness and who we like in those middle rounds, he really stood out. I just didn't want to pick him as, you know, a homer, a card, whatever. He has a good pick.
He's going to score. He's going to be involved. And he is an exceptional running back for his age right now. So Conner?
Or David Montgomery? I would rather have Conner. I think we've talked about this in the past. If I'm relying on this player as a starter, and probably in the sixth round it's going to be important, like at least a flex, then I would rather have Conner.
If for some reason I'm loaded at running back, then I still love the upside of an injured Gibbs down the line that would vault David Montgomery to a league winner. Conner or Jones? Aaron Jones. That's James Conner by a lot for me.
That's Conner for me as well. So really? It's Conner. So yeah, I mean, where he's going seems like a good value.
So my two mid-round madness guys are Dalton Kincaid and Ladd McConkie. So this is a little bit of a tight end show, because that's where you've got to mine the earth and find the right tight ends to get. I find myself ending a lot of mock drafts with Dalton Kincaid. I've said it many times for the offseason, I want one of those top five guys.
And I don't want to be the one to pull the trigger first. I don't want to spend the most on Sam Laporta. I'm fine with where Kelsey's going. I love where McBride is going.
But when you're in those rounds, you don't always get to dictate who falls to you. But it seems like Dalton Kincaid continues to fall. Dawson Knox, you brought him up earlier. He's getting pub, he's getting some juice, he's getting the GM, loves him.
The GM's going to love everyone on the roster because they draft him. You don't see the GM's talking too much smack against players that they drafted. Usually it's the coach. But the wide receiver depth chart that besmirched Buffalo earlier this episode is the reason why.
Dalton Kincaid was an awesome prospect. Like, I know I was out on him last year because he was a rookie. But he had an awesome for a rookie tight end season. Like, one of the top ten best.
It wasn't great for fantasy, because it almost never is. But when he showed on the field, he's got it. He is what they drafted him to be, which is a sensational pass catching tight end. And now they need him.
And he's tied to Josh Allen. Not as, like, most of these guys are the number two target. Like, Trayman Cribe, it's great to be the number two target. You know, even Njoku, you know, is the number two target ahead of Jerry Judy.
Because that would be really, really good. There's only a handful of guys that are the number one. You know, the Kelsey. Even Laporte's not the number one.
And, you know, there's Kelsey. There's Andrews. And there's Dalton Kincaid, who has a legitimate shot of being the primary target. So, in the fifth round, as the final tight end of the guys who I can see take that leap forward to becoming a league winner status, I like him there.
Yeah, I think Kincaid is... Just get a little bit of the hesitation with Dustin Knox, because this was a player that, like, if Kincaid had not been surprise drafted by the Bills, Knox would have been receiving the same levels of hype and excitement as, you know, the Njoku and Ferguson. Because, I mean, he broke the franchise record for touchdowns in 2021. They gave him a big bag of money.
He had, you know, 40, 50-plus receptions in those games. I'm just worried about the occasional disappointment. But Kincaid has the... He's got the ceiling to be the best tight end in football, if that's the way that the team chooses to funnel the football, you know, through him.
So, I'm very excited at it. It is... Your choice there is to take the last of the five. His ADP is the last of the five greater.
That's right. And so, that's why I end up with him often. Because when I'm in the fourth, third, second rounds, there are super, super-duper valuable wide receivers and running backs that I usually can't... I can't get Trey McBride who I want.
I don't think he's a bad value where he's going. But it's like, yeah, I just want this running back. I want this wide receiver just so much more. And in the fifth, I go, well, I don't want to go week-to-week streaming the tight end position this year.
I got a chance... He's four picks behind where Andrews is going. How big is that gap to you? Between Andrews and Kincaid?
Yeah, that's massive. To me, if they were... Just only four picks in ADP. Yeah, so if they were at the exact same spot, if they were...
You know, I'm on the clock. I'm definitely taking Andrews. Andrews is more proven. We know he's the number one.
We know he can do it. He's a touchdown machine. Obviously, injury risk, but I would take him. You know, the mid-round madness looking...
I pretty much was looking at the fifth round. Andrews is on the fourth. They're close together, and I think they're both good values. But yeah, I do end up...
I mean, we've seen it. We can go back to the mock drafts. It's just over and over and over and over. When I am on the clock, wherever I am, it's him left.
I've never had the chance to go, oh, should I do Andrews or Kincaid here when I get to that round? What are you hoping for? Like, 1,400 yards and 12 touchdowns. But what are you realistically hoping that Dalton Kincaid's improvement is?
Like last year, what was he? 589 yards? Yeah, he was at 673. 673, sorry.
My hope is that he is involved around the end zone. That is my hope. That's what's going to move the needle. He will have a ton of targets, a ton of receptions, and plenty of yards in this offense to be a top tight end.
Like, I hope he gets 100 receptions. I've got him for 90 receptions. That's how I've got him stashed. We both have him that high.
The splits are interesting, though. Like, first, he was with... He was a rookie, first six weeks, with Dawson Knox, just under four targets a game. Then he went, you know, week seven through ten without Knox, goes up to eight targets a game.
Joe Brady took over, right? So we want to protect that forward to James Cook, but the targets did go down. The production went down only six fancy points per game with Brady. So, you know, you expect a big step forward, but that's where that slight...
Like, I think it's a big four. The Dawson-Knox splits are very, very concerning and legitimate. The tough thing with that is that it was the first six weeks of Dalton Kincaid's career. Yeah, I don't care about those weeks.
I don't care about the last ones. You care about the Joe Brady weeks, week 11 through 18. Correct. Yeah, I mean, that's fantastic.
Those are the ones I care about because Diggs wasn't really part of the offense, and James Cook was majorly part of the offense, and it's the current coordinator, and there was no Dawson-Knox. Yeah, you talked about it earlier, but they were, what, 31st or something in the pass rate. So, I mean, sometimes that's going to happen, but you can't always do that. They lost some pieces on defense.
They went down the stretch last year and just won a bunch of games. All right, I want your second name, but not yet. After this. So I mentioned...
Oh, you did mention him briefly. I did mention him briefly. Lad McConkie. I still won it.
Oh, yes. Look, I love Lad McConkie. He is... You know, when you look at the rookie wide receivers, rookie wide receivers are usually, over the last, you know, higher-flying NFL, more pass-happy NFL, rookie wide receivers are usually a good bet.
Now, maybe it takes a little bit of time to come on. So ADP-wise, people have totally caught on to this, right? I mean, Marvin Harrison is a one-two-turn pick. Malik Neighbors is the highest any rookie wide receiver has ever been picked by ADP, other than Marvin Harrison, who's already had him.
Lad McConkie isn't getting that treatment. He was a second-round pick. Keep in mind, this is a team that traded up to get him. They traded up a couple spots.
This was the very, very beginning of day two. So they went after round... They took him ahead of Coleman, right? Like, Coleman was on the board for them?
Do not believe you. I think Coleman was the first pick by... But the Bills chose Coleman over McConkie. Correct.
But, you know, you go after day one, and you see this all the time, right? Like, the first day of the NFL draft is over, all the teams go, and they say, who are our targets? Who are we trying to get at the very top of that draft? They have time to think about it, and they came in, so the next day said, we have to get him to trade it up.
They got Lad McConkie, and all the reports from training camp. You know, you look at a lot of these guys, it's like, is Coleman running with the ones? Sometimes. Sometimes not.
You know, we're not sure if he's going to be a part of this offense to start his career or not. They're going to work him in there. What role is he playing? You know, he's got to work on the playbook.
You've got Brian Thomas. You know, is Brian Thomas going to be a starter week one, another first round rookie wide receiver? I don't know. Maybe it's Gabe Davis.
They paid him a lot of money. They bring him in. Lad McConkie, from day one, from the word go, he's on the field. He is absolutely like, every reporter has been saying he's the number one target almost every practice.
They're saying they're not just using him in the slot, they're using him as the Z receiver. They're moving him around. When you match that with the need, I mean, Quentin Johnson isn't even right now. He might not even be running with the ones.
Maybe we're not running with the twos. Right. It's all bad. They need a bad line.
And the film, I know he didn't have college production. If you're just now coming around, the knock on Lad McConkie is that this dude, he shouldn't have been a second round pick. He had no production in college and it is legitimately very rare for people to be unproductive in college and then dominate with production in the NFL. Like, that's just not common.
It happens sometimes, but it's an outlier. But the film of Lad McConkie was outstanding. I remember when we first started scouting. We hadn't started the process yet.
I didn't know the names of a lot of these rookies because, you know, I'm not a huge college guy. As soon as the, you know, Super Bowl hits, we see, yeah. Get out, we'll get it. You like that cafeteria, though, eh?
It's quite the joke to make to the only guy who has a degree in here, right? Oh, yeah, that is true. I have a degree. You have a college degree?
I have a college degree. You have a college degree? You have a college degree? I thought you did.
This is uneducated swine. It's our host. College dropout? I just joke about being dumb, guys.
Wait, you have a degree? Yes, I do. Is it in a bit? No, it's not a bit.
I do have a degree, yes. I now regret bringing all that up. Yeah, get bodied. Sorry, go on.
You threw the body and boomerang right back into his own face. Yeah, so, you know, it's just one of those things where when we first got to the scouting process, Andy just said, he's like, he just started talking about this. Oh, Lad McConkie, just watch out. He's going to be a star.
He's going to be sensational. And in the early days, like this was, we weren't even talking rookies yet. No one, even though the hardest core listener, no one really knew how much Andy loved Lad McConkie because we weren't talking about rookies yet. He just said, you know, he is a talented rookie wide receiver who's on the field from snap one and will probably be a 75% snap player for a great quarterback in Justin Herbert.
The opportunity is there and I want to take shots on something like that. You're going to like plant your flag on him? Oh, yeah, that's, look, I had this name in here before the Justin Herbert news. I'm not going to pivot too drastically on this yet, but I don't love it.
Kyle Siddhar's saying, return to your first love, Andrew. I never fell out of love with Lad McConkie. I felt, I wanted to see how, I believe I said this. I want to see how the offseason progress with Quinn Johnson and Palmer and Chark and, you know.
Perfectly for Lad McConkie. It has, it has. I am returning. I am returning to where I once was.
I am with you, Jason. I believe he is, he's just set up to be foundational for the offense. And by the way, Josh Palmer also getting some very positive, like I think Greg Roman was talking all about how good Josh Palmer has been. You want to know why?
Do you want to know why? Because Josh Palmer is an exceptional wide receiver too. He is not a wide receiver one. And now, thank God, wide receiver one.
I hate to say it because I love McConkie, but I still don't believe that. Yeah, you don't believe that he's a one. You believe he's a Hunter Renfro slot wide receiver. The fact that we were already getting reports of McConkie is seeing every position in the wide receiver room.
That is humongous to me of to hit a ceiling, you have to play in three wide and you have to play in two wide. He should be really, really good. And it's just touchdowns, which I think is what, I think that's what you're saying with all those golden tape types. Those wide receiver two fantasy wide receiver two.
Even Keenan. I mean, Keenan's a Hall of Fame level wide receiver, right? Yes. Would we say that Keenan Allen is better than Lad McConkie?
Yes. So Keenan Allen in that kind of a role, has lived most of his career peaking around eight or nine, more of a 12 to 14 finisher. I'm pretty good. It's great.
It's great. It definitely is. But what cost him was not necessarily being a guy that could get double digit touchdowns. Right.
Keenan is a great reason for it. Lad is very Keenan-like. He's just a great crisp route runner. Great hands.
He's going to be in the right spot every time. Defensive reader. Exactly. College degree.
That is what Keenan was. And Keenan last year was a wide receiver eight in 13 games. He was like a wide receiver three all year until he got injured with Justin Herbert. Obviously different system they're going to run the ball more.
Rookie. Not as good as Keenan Allen but I do love the similarities for the quarterback. We have five shows next week and throughout the entire NFL season so it is here five days a week. Monday I'm off draft.
We'll get into wide receiver rankings early in the week as well so please join us. Please click that follow button. Also, final reminder. Our friends at Sleeper they're presenting the 2024 10th anniversary Megalow show in Los Angeles.
Come hang out with us on August 24th. BallersLive.com for tickets. Don't miss it because Jason's going to be shooting a lot of stuff into the crowd and you're going to be very happy. They're Jersey related.
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