Mike's Minute: Adrian Orr's next move is the crucial one

Another episode Wednesday from the Reserve Bank. It's worth paying attention to, given it affects every single one of us. And survey after survey indicates large numbers of us are suffering because of it. Inflation, currently at 7.3 percent, has it peaked or not? The Reserve Bank get another crack this week at interest rates and along with the number, the commentary, as to what they think and where we are going. The backdrop is good and bad. It's good because America saw their inflation drop. Not by much, it' still a hell of a mess but it's not as bad, at 8.5 percent, as it was. Food, internationally, is cheaper. Oil, internationally, is cheaper. Significantly so, and that has a major affect here. The unemployment rate the other day went up. That’s a sort of sign of slackness in the labour market and it's what the Reserve Bank wants to see. But wages are rising. They are going up in the private sector by 7 percent. That’s absurd. It might mean people still spend. If they are spending and if they don’t feel affected by inflation the Reserve Bank might want to send a message. So, everyone agrees interest rates will rise again. Moody's says it's not impossible the rise will be 25 points. That would be very good news. ANZ say it's not impossible the move will be 75 points. That would be a disaster. Most say it'll be 50, which although broadly predicted, is still a sign we are a long way from being out of trouble. There is also a sense that the previously forecast top for the cash rate of 4 percent won't be enough. It could go to 4.5 percent. That would make Don Brash right and he called that a while back. It would further cement the broad argument that Adrian Orr has blown this and we all need to pay a massive price for his printing more money than he ever needed to. If the cash rate goes to 4.5 percent, that's mortgages with a 7 percent in them. None of this though excuses where we are. That's the problem with ongoing problems, we become numb to them, and they become the norm. Orr will be hoping you think that. Because the Government still haven't acquiesced to a review, which they should have. That's another one of their tricks make the quest for a review a long-term ongoing issue in the hope that you forget. Because boy, given the damage, do they have questions to answer.  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.