Mike's Minute: Is National a victim of success?

Here is an irony for you.  Could it be that the Prime Minister, the one so disliked by the media, is actually so good at his job that his numbers are a result of his excellence?  The pollster David Farrar has broken down the NZ First poll numbers this week.  Now, small warning – the NZ First poll numbers are not accurate given NZ First went up 4%, which is a 30%-ish swing in their favour.  As I said this week, parties don’t go up or down at that rate ever. But it is true to say NZ First is on a bit of a roll. Multiple polls show a growth in support.  Farrar's breakdown showed the majority of the new support has come from National.  Why? Well NZ First for some will be what National aren't: straight up and down, hard arse and no nonsense. Winston Peters and Shane Jones tell it like it is and in a divided world there is an appeal to that.  There was a good piece in the Sydney Morning Herald reporting the same thing. Major parties have cocked it up for decades, so Pauline Hanson comes along and it's her time to shine.  Back here, what has Luxon got to do with it? Well, whether you support the Government or not, he has held together a very successful collab, with three parties for the first time ever in an official arrangement.  They work together and get along together and that has brought faith in the idea that you can have MMP and small parties can not only survive but prosper. All three parties will go to the election this year in good standing.  You have not been able to say that in the MMP era before. From the Alliance Party to the Māori Party, to the Greens, to NZ First themselves, all minor parties have previously suffered, if not vanished, while in Government or in Government arrangements.  The Luxon CEO approach, open to much media derision, has in fact paid dividends, so much so that his own party might have bled support. Such is the confidence he has been able to foster in a mature and adult arrangement, whereas the election draws closer, it isn't every man for himself.  Ironically, it's the downside to success. But as I said earlier this week, the days of major parties being well into the 30s is going, if not gone. You can't have 10-12% smaller players and hold 35%+. The numbers don’t work.  If the left ever got a solid third player, Labour would face the same issue.  National won't be enjoying this truth. But if you're an MMP fan, the maturity of what we have seen this past two and a bit years cements the future for potentially stable and adult Government.  It's the model as to how it should be done. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.