Mizuho’s Vikram Malhotra Sees Logistics Real Estate in Early Stages of New Upcycle

Vikram Malhotra, managing director, real estate equities at Mizuho, joined the REIT Report to review trends in the industrial/logistics REIT sector. Despite some softness in the first quarter, a new upcycle remains in place, with big box demand playing a key role, he said.Warehouses of over 500,000 square feet have done “very well,” Malhotra said, as companies like Walmart and Amazon adapt to the necessity of quick, last-mile distribution. Mizuho currently estimates overall sector vacancy at 7.5%. That rate is close to peaking, Malhotra said, and then should modestly trend down. “Until we see vacancy trend to about 6%, I think it'll be really hard to see real rent growth…I think we're at least a year away from a very strong market trend.”As for the impact of current global instability, Malhotra noted that “in the very near term, spot demand is strong, but we are monitoring factors where we could see a sign of a pause.”  Instability is likely to strengthen the reshoring trend that has been a theme for the past few years, Malhotra added. Despite the ongoing conflict, the demand for logistics space is expected to reach 150-200 million square feet annually, a significant uptick from previous years.Chapters:00:00 AI Sparks Logistics Upside 00:57 Industrial Outlook 2026 01:44 Big Box Demand Split 02:33 Conflict Impact Check 03:54 Supply Chains And Data Centers 05:54 Markets Supply Risk 2026 07:55 Vacancy And Rent Path 09:07 Warehouse Design Shifts 10:49 Power And Automation Edge 11:59 AI Driven E Commerce Cycle 12:49 Wrap Up And Subscribe