Monsoon 2025: El Niño, La Niña & IOD Explained | Skymet Podcast EP-46

In this week’s Skymet Podcast, AVM (Retd.) G.P. Sharma, President of Meteorology & Climate Change at Skymet, explains how global oceanic factors are influencing the progress of Monsoon 2025. The Niño 3.4 index over the Pacific is currently at -0.4, pointing towards a developing La Niña phase which is considered favorable for the Indian monsoon. On the other hand, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is highly negative at -1.2—the lowest since August 2022—which may suppress rainfall, as a positive IOD usually supports monsoon activity. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) stands at +0.6, indicating neutral conditions. So far, up to 26th August, the country has received 104% of the Long Period Average (LPA) rainfall, reflecting an above-normal season. Northwest India (including Rajasthan, Gujarat, and Delhi-NCR) and Central India (Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh) have experienced good rains, while Bihar and parts of Northeast India recorded a shortfall earlier, though conditions have improved in recent days. Tune in to understand how September’s rains may unfold and what role El Niño, La Niña, and IOD will play in steering the rest of the season.