More Election Predictions, Polling Problems, Trump's Tariff Talk

Jay and Justin open this episode with their predictions for the upcoming presidential election, with Justin forecasting a narrow Harris victory and Jay expecting Trump to return to the White House. They also discuss how traditional polling methods might be missing key voter segments and how social desirability bias could affect Trump supporters' willingness to participate in polls. Next, they look at early voting patterns and Republican voter registration trends, which they agree could be favorable indicators for Trump. They examine the challenges of predicting likely voters and how different pollsters' methods can yield radically different results from the same raw data. They close by considering Trump's recent proposal for widespread tariffs, including a potential 10-20% baseline tariff on all imports and 60% on Chinese goods. Jay, drawing on traditional Republican free-market principles, expresses serious concerns about these proposals, while both hosts discuss how such policies could impact the American economy. They explore the mythology of 1950s American industrialism and why attempting to recreate that era through tariffs might be both impractical and economically harmful. The Politics Guys on Facebook | X Check out the Sustainable Planet podcast, as well as the free Sustainable Planet Substack. Listener support helps make The Politics Guys possible. You can support us or change your level of support at patreon.com/politicsguys or politicsguys.com/support. On Venmo we’re @PoliticsGuys. The Politics Guys is part of The Democracy Group, a network of podcasts that examines what's broken in our democracy and how we can work together to fix it. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoicesThe Politics Guys on Facebook | XListener support helps make The Politics Guys possible. You can support us or change your level of support at patreon.com/politicsguys or politicsguys.com/support. On Venmo, we’re @PoliticsGuys.The Politics Guys is part of The Democracy Group, a network of podcasts that examines what's broken in our democracy and how we can work together to fix it.