Mortgage Rates Aren’t Falling—But Corporations Just Got $100 Billion

Mortgage rates are about to move — and today I break down exactly what the Federal Reserve is watching before they do. The August 21, 2026 Rate Update for homebuyers and Realtors: PCE vs CPI, jobs and claims, where mortgage rates sit now, and the $100 billion in tariff refunds that went to corporations instead of consumers.CHAPTERS0:00 What This Week's Data Told the Fed1:15 PCE vs CPI — The Inflation Number That Sets Mortgage Rates2:40 Jobs and Jobless Claims: The Fed's Dual Mandate4:10 The Reports That Can Move Mortgage Rates From Here5:45 Where Mortgage Rates Sit Right Now7:00 $100 Billion in Tariff Refunds: Who Actually Got Paid8:30 Target, Amazon, Ford — Refunds Booked Into Earnings9:50 Why Consumers Aren't Getting a Tariff Refund Check10:50 What Homebuyers and Realtors Should Do NowMORTGAGE RATE UPDATE — FRIDAY, AUGUST 21, 2026This week's economic data gave the Federal Reserve exactly what it watches most, and I walk through it the way the Fed actually reads it: PCE inflation over headline CPI, the jobs and jobless claims trend over any single monthly print, and the drivers underneath both — oil, shelter, and services. Then we look at what's ahead on the economic calendar and what could realistically push mortgage rates higher or lower.If you're buying a home, refinancing, or advising clients as a real estate agent, this hits your monthly payment directly. Mortgage rates follow the bond market and the 10-Year Treasury, not the Fed funds headlines — and understanding that difference is the biggest edge a homebuyer has right now.In the second half: roughly $100 billion of the $166 billion in struck-down IEEPA tariffs has been certified and sent out — to importers and corporations, not the consumers who paid it at the register. Target booked $994 million in tariff refunds and $1.65 in earnings per share while confirming it won't issue customer refunds. Amazon collected about $640 million. Ford recorded a $1.3 billion one-time tariff benefit. FedEx and UPS are among the few passing money back.Both halves land on the same place: your buying power.NEXT STEPS🏠 Ready to Buy or Refinance? Get Pre-Approved→ https://257781.my1003app.com/246527/register