Multifamily Starts Hit a 15-Year Low — Refi-Lock or Buy?

Multifamily project starts just hit a 15-year low — about 55,000 units in the first quarter, more than 70% below the 2022 peak. Every headline says the same thing: the supply wave that's been crushing rents is finally ending, so buy the trough before it's obvious.But there's a second number nobody's setting next to the first one. Building permits for those same 5-plus-unit buildings are up — about 13% year over year. Starts at a 15-year low, permits climbing. The same market pointing two directions at once. And the deal in front of you — a B-minus 4-plex you'd actually buy — is already underwater at a real investment rate.In this Thursday Scenario episode of the 5-Minute PRIME Podcast, host Martin Maxwell hands you the decision: three doors, a real building, real numbers — and asks you to pick one before he tells you what he'd do.Tune in to learn:Permits don't deliver — starts do — why the number in the headline sets your rent comp in 2028, not this year, and which series actually mattersThe Series Divergence — how project starts and building permits can move opposite ways because they count different things, and how to read the gap as a flag instead of a green lightUnderwrite at your real rate — why a non-owner-occupied 4-unit is a 7%-plus loan, not your old owner-occupied number, and why a DSCR under 1.0 means you're forcing the dealDry powder over hope — when "buy the trough" is discipline and when it's just financing two years of negative carry toward a recovery you're hoping forIs the 15-year-low starts number a buy signal or a trap? And when a deal only works if the recovery shows up on schedule — is that an investment, or a bet?Subscribe now to underwrite the next deal cold — before a headline talks you into one that doesn't pencil.Thank you for tuning in to the 5-Minute PRIME Podcast! Ready for more tips to master personal finance and real estate investing? Visit REIPrime.com for additional resources and strategies to build your wealth. Don’t forget to subscribe, leave a review, and share this episode with someone looking to level up their finances. Follow us on social media for daily updates and more actionable advice!