My AI Opinions - By Scott Alexander

In this post, Scott Alexander lays out his current views on AI timelines, safety, geopolitics, and possible futures, offering probabilistic forecasts for AGI, superintelligence, diffusion, doom risk, AI pauses, and post-scarcity outcomes. He presents himself as worried but not maximally pessimistic: expecting transformative AI within decades, seeing serious alignment and misuse risks, but also leaving substantial room for successful safety work, international coordination, and even utopian possibilities.* 00:00 - Introduction* 00:17 - Timelines* 13:13 - Safety* 25:59 - Geopolitics* 33:15 - Other Outcomes Get full access to Askwho Casts AI at askwhocastsai.substack.com/subscribe