Neil Saunders, Managing Director of GlobalData: Inside Retail's Winners, Losers & the Back Half of 2026

There's a common assumption in retail right now that the top of the market is the only thing growing. Neil Saunders, Managing Director of GlobalData Retail and one of the industry's most-followed analysts, doesn't buy it. "Every broad income group has contributed to the increase in retail sales," Saunders tells Ken. The K-shaped economy is real, he argues, but it's hiding in the volume numbers, not the dollars. It's one of many contrarian reads he brings to this wide-ranging conversation on the state of retail in 2026, from tariffs and consumer resilience, to why Lululemon's stores now feel "sterile," and which retail names he'd put his own money behind today.In this episode of The Retail Pilot, Ken sits down with Neil Saunders, Managing Director and Retail Analyst at GlobalData, to unpack the biggest stories shaping retail in the back half of 2026: the tariff pass-through math (roughly 40–45% to consumers), the K-shaped consumer decoded, the denim wars between Levi's, Gap, and Abercrombie, the athleisure shift away from Lululemon toward Vuori and Alo, the department store resurgence under merchant-led leaders at Macy's and Saks, Walmart's move on the $100K+ household, and where AI is actually delivering results.In this episode you'll learn:The tariff pass-through math: ~40–45% of costs pushed to consumers, the rest absorbed through sourcing shifts and marginThe K-shaped consumer, decoded: why the real divergence is hiding in volume, not valueWhy the first half of 2026 was propped up by tax refunds and what that means for the back halfHow Gap's "cultural currency" strategy under Richard Dickson is pulling younger customers backThe athleisure shift: why Lululemon is losing ground to Vuori, Alo, and Abercrombie's YPBWhy department stores aren't going extinct and why Tony Spring at Macy's is Neil's pick for best retail CEOWalmart's move on the $100K+ household and why they still behave like a small entrepreneurial retailerThe global fast fashion breakdown: why Uniqlo is winning, Zara is mature, and H&M feels like "yesterday's retailer"This episode is for you if: you're a retail operator trying to read the macro signal from the noise, a brand leader benchmarking your category's competitive landscape, an investor tracking public retail names into the back half of 2026, a marketer thinking about cultural currency and celebrity partnerships, or anyone who wants a candid analyst read on who's actually winning in retail right now.Don’t forget to subscribe to The Retail Pilot podcast for more conversations with retail industry leaders and visionaries shaping the future of commerce.If you missed our last episode, where CEO of Vuori, Joe Kudla unpacks how a former CPA and fashion model turned a men's yoga apparel gap into one of the most admired brands in performance wear, be sure to tune in.Connect with Ken:-Follow Ken Pilot Ventures on LinkedIn, Instagram, and YouTube. Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.